Value of: Jonathan Drouin

[HyPnOtiK]

At 26 that potential to reach 70 points is now called fluke or a statistical anomaly or extremely unlikely to happen.

I wouldn't call it a fluke or an anomaly. There's been players that have had much larger jumps in production at older ages than 25. Drouin put up 53 points at 23 (his last full season), to think he can hit 70 would be farfetched especially considering he hasn't exactly played with top talent is a bit odd. I mean he put up 53 at 21 years old with better linemates.

Gallagher went from a 35 point player to a 65-70 point pace around the same age Drouin is.

Couturier went from a 45-50 point player to a PPG player around Drouins age

William Karlsson 20 point player to 70 point player

Kesler went from a 40 point player to a 70+ point player at Drouins age

There's literally dozens of examples, Drouin turning into a 70 point player would not at all be shocking, a fluke or an anomaly. In fact I expect it. Put that kid with a legit #1C and he coasts to 70.

 

[TS Quint]

I wouldn't call it a fluke or an anomaly. There's been players that have had much larger jumps in production at older ages than 25. Drouin put up 53 points at 23 (his last full season), to think he can hit 70 would be farfetched especially considering he hasn't exactly played with top talent is a bit odd. I mean he put up 53 at 21 years old with better linemates.

Gallagher went from a 35 point player to a 65-70 point pace around the same age Drouin is.

Couturier went from a 45-50 point player to a PPG player around Drouins age

William Karlsson 20 point player to 70 point player

Kesler went from a 40 point player to a 70+ point player at Drouins age

There's literally dozens of examples, Drouin turning into a 70 point player would not at all be shocking, a fluke or an anomaly. In fact I expect it. Put that kid with a legit #1C and he coasts to 70.

Do you want me to start listing the players that didn't make that jump? I bet you my list will be far longer than your cherry picking.

This is pure fan fiction. You can pretty much pick any player and make these claims. Unless the Habs get McDavid to drag Drouin around the ice by his hair a 70 point season for Drouin is extremely unlikely.

 

[BKarchitect]

Do you want me to start listing the players that didn't make that jump? I bet you my list will be far longer than your cherry picking.

This is pure fan fiction. You can pretty much pick any player and make these claims. Unless the Habs get McDavid to drag Drouin around the ice by his hair a 70 point season for Drouin is extremely unlikely.

I counter your chart that compiles all NHL players into a statistical model with a few select players!

Drouin is absolutely at what we would normally consider his peak statistical point. Doesn’t mean he’s suddenly going to drop off after this season nor does it preclude improvement out of the ordinary range, if you want to be optimistic...and if I were a Habs fan of course I would tend that direction. But a 30% jump in any prior production at age 25 or later is highly unlikely without a drastic change in his situation. Maybe Suzuki becomes a real star and feeds Drouin more points. Not impossible. Maybe he eventually does get dealt to another team and finds chemistry with a star center. Not impossible. But there’s a far greater chance that his best seasons thus far in the 50-55 point range are the best versions of Drouin we will ever see.

And frankly if he gets back to that range this year (or that pace in a shortened season and stays healthy and motivated)...I think most Habs fans take that and say “sounds decent to me”.

 

[TS Quint]

I counter your chart that compiles all NHL players into a statistical model with a few select players!

Drouin is absolutely at what we would normally consider his peak statistical point. Doesn’t mean he’s suddenly going to drop off after this season nor does it preclude improvement out of the ordinary range, if you want to be optimistic...and if I were a Habs fan of course I would tend that direction. But a 30% jump in any prior production at age 25 or later is highly unlikely without a drastic change in his situation. Maybe Suzuki becomes a real star and feeds Drouin more points. Not impossible. Maybe he eventually does get dealt to another team and finds chemistry with a star center. Not impossible. But there’s a far greater chance that his best seasons thus far in the 50-55 point range are the best versions of Drouin we will ever see.

And frankly if he gets back to that range this year (or that pace in a shortened season and stays healthy and motivated)...I think most Habs fans take that and say “sounds decent to me”.

What are you doing here? You are just agreeing that 70 points is extremely unlikely and you cherry picked your stats. Then you tried to put words in my mouth as I never said he was about to drop off.

Very peculiar post.

 

[BKarchitect]

What are you doing here? You are just agreeing that 70 points is extremely unlikely and you cherry picked your stats. Then you tried to put words in my mouth as I never said he was about to drop off.

Very peculiar post.

Huh? I'm agreeing with you. Just reinforcing the notion that saying:

“Drouin is highly unlikely to produce significantly higher at any point in the future than he already has”

Isn’t slander against him, it just means we’ve likely seen what there is to see. And that if the Habs get a 50-55 point Drouin back they’ll probably be perfectly pleased.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

I wouldn't call it a fluke or an anomaly. There's been players that have had much larger jumps in production at older ages than 25. Drouin put up 53 points at 23 (his last full season), to think he can hit 70 would be farfetched especially considering he hasn't exactly played with top talent is a bit odd. I mean he put up 53 at 21 years old with better linemates.

Gallagher went from a 35 point player to a 65-70 point pace around the same age Drouin is.

Couturier went from a 45-50 point player to a PPG player around Drouins age

William Karlsson 20 point player to 70 point player

Kesler went from a 40 point player to a 70+ point player at Drouins age

There's literally dozens of examples, Drouin turning into a 70 point player would not at all be shocking, a fluke or an anomaly. In fact I expect it. Put that kid with a legit #1C and he coasts to 70.

Couturier hasn't really even been that close to PPG once in his career. So its pretty disingenuous to call him a PPG player.

 

[TS Quint]

Huh? I'm agreeing with you.

Apologies, I missed the sarcasm win your first line.

 

[BKarchitect]

Apologies, I missed the sarcasm win your first line.

No problem! I do think there’s a bit of disconnect around here as far as what is considered “young” or “on the ascendancy” when compared to statistical norms like the chart you posted.

Especially as it pertains to one-dimensional forwards whose value lies in their offensive production. There was a lot of this in the Galchenyuk thread (not even really by Sens fans to be fair) and I guarantee when some team signs Athanasiou for cheap there’s going to be a lot of over the top optimism from some fan base based on his 30 goal season and him being somehow “young” still. But the brutal truth is offense peaks early and even more so with guys who do little to gain the trusts of coaches with poor play away from the puck or an over reliance on power play production - not to mention general inconsistency. If those are your calling cards and you are 26, 27 years old you most certainly are well past your prime value and outside of a much smaller percentage of exceptions - it’s not going to be a pretty descent.

Drouin’s flat out more talented than those examples so I’m not trying to make a direct correlation but prime years for “secondary” scorers can come and go in a flash.

 

[McSuper]

Keep it realistic please...

Habs looking for a solid two-way LWer or LD...or a good pick

Remember, keep it respectable and realistic

Hab’s fans need to do the same . Drouin just isn’t a desirable asset to most teams . Asking for a 1st unless it is a very late first is just too much . 2nd and a B prospect + cap coming back is about his value . I wouldn’t trade for him if I was a GM but it only takes one GM and coach who think they can get something out of him that no one else could .

 

[A55P2]

Drouin won't get 70pts. But none of our players will. We'll have a lot of 40-50pts player. The team is built around depth and I think it's going to be a good formula.

 

[GeeoffBrown]

I don't think I would trade Lucic for him...

 

[nbwingsfan]

I wouldn't call it a fluke or an anomaly. There's been players that have had much larger jumps in production at older ages than 25. Drouin put up 53 points at 23 (his last full season), to think he can hit 70 would be farfetched especially considering he hasn't exactly played with top talent is a bit odd. I mean he put up 53 at 21 years old with better linemates.

Gallagher went from a 35 point player to a 65-70 point pace around the same age Drouin is.

Couturier went from a 45-50 point player to a PPG player around Drouins age

William Karlsson 20 point player to 70 point player

Kesler went from a 40 point player to a 70+ point player at Drouins age

There's literally dozens of examples, Drouin turning into a 70 point player would not at all be shocking, a fluke or an anomaly. In fact I expect it. Put that kid with a legit #1C and he coasts to 70.

The difference in basically every example you just listed and Drouin is that non of those players were given top line or top PP time before their breakout. Once they were given opportunity they showed they had the talent all along.

The same cant be said for Drouin. Hes been fed top line and top PP opportunities from the get go, but hasnt produced all that well yet.

Sure he could break out, but I wouldn't bet on it

 

[BananaCat11]

I think the Habs would need to sweeten the deal to offload his contract. We would need to throw in two draft picks just to get a 4th liner from another team for Drouin. He just aint that good. I don't think Drouin even shows up in the annual Hockey draft books. If he does show up hes on the last page.

Talking 4th liner sympathy trades here from other teams. Maybe if they are lucky they could trade him for some ancient old vet dman who is contemplating retirement. But not without throwing in some picks. The harsh reality is Jonathan Droiun would not even be welcome on the top 20 teams 4th line. If any team showed interest in him, Bergevin would have traded him already. The dude is a slacker. He is not a fan favorite. He is not a needle mover. He is not evolving. He seems to have no drive. His stats are misleading to. best season was 18 goals 35 assists but his on ice play is really frustrating. He seems to do the bare minimum as far as trying goes. Along with those 53 points is a whole lotta minus's every season. He makes costly mistakes that cost the Habs points. I honestly think if they could get a bag of pucks for him they would have already.

Habs are stuck with him.

 

[Fatass]

I’m thinking a drouin nurse base would be something. Add gotta be on drouin . Say drouin and lehkonen for nurse and ??? Something that gives a slight edge cap wise to Edmonton .

So Habs defenseman look like
Nurse Weber
Edmundson Petry
Romanov Kulak/Juulsen

IMO there is zero chance the Oilers trade Nurse for Drouin. I think Nurse would cost the Habs Kotka. And the Oiler fans might say that’s not enough. Oiler fans opinion?

 

[Brownies]

Drouin played so good at the beginning of last season, before getting injured ! Really fast (you've got to give him that : he really improved his skating since his junior days or maybe he's just moving his feet more), and was backchecking to steal pucks with a lot of intensity.

Usually, when I start getting some hope that a guy with a poor reputation like him has turned a corner and will become better, the following season he goes to his old habit and make me look like a fool, so unfortunately I'm not expecting much from Drouin and don't think he has much value (like all players with a poor reputation). Still, I've got to give it to him at the beginning of last seasons he had made some nice adjustments to his game so it's up to him to prove us all wrong.

 

[ole ole]

I don't think I would trade Lucic for him...

You'll never have to worry about that. Wouldn't take Lucic for free.

 

[Z-Diddy]

Talking 4th liner sympathy trades here from other teams

ehh as much as I wouldn't want to see him on my team, playing fourth line won't ever work anywhere because his style forces a square peg into a round hole, I just think you're being a little over dramatic that not a single NHL team would not have him is exaggerated poorly

 

[GeeoffBrown]

You'll never have to worry about that. Wouldn't take Lucic for free.

Oh if we could get "free" for Lucic, I would drive him to the airport.

Ya boi Drouin is worth less than free

 

[Theodore450]

I wouldn't call it a fluke or an anomaly. There's been players that have had much larger jumps in production at older ages than 25. Drouin put up 53 points at 23 (his last full season), to think he can hit 70 would be farfetched especially considering he hasn't exactly played with top talent is a bit odd. I mean he put up 53 at 21 years old with better linemates.

Gallagher went from a 35 point player to a 65-70 point pace around the same age Drouin is.

Couturier went from a 45-50 point player to a PPG player around Drouins age

William Karlsson 20 point player to 70 point player

Kesler went from a 40 point player to a 70+ point player at Drouins age

There's literally dozens of examples, Drouin turning into a 70 point player would not at all be shocking, a fluke or an anomaly. In fact I expect it. Put that kid with a legit #1C and he coasts to 70.

People have short term memory. I wouldn’t move Drouin, you ride out the product until he gets a quality skilled Center

 

[Just Linda]

You'll never have to worry about that. Wouldn't take Lucic for free.

Why would you bite that one, you gave it the reaction it wants

 

[Mersss]

I think the Habs would need to sweeten the deal to offload his contract. We would need to throw in two draft picks just to get a 4th liner from another team for Drouin. He just aint that good. I don't think Drouin even shows up in the annual Hockey draft books. If he does show up hes on the last page.

Talking 4th liner sympathy trades here from other teams. Maybe if they are lucky they could trade him for some ancient old vet dman who is contemplating retirement. But not without throwing in some picks. The harsh reality is Jonathan Droiun would not even be welcome on the top 20 teams 4th line. If any team showed interest in him, Bergevin would have traded him already. The dude is a slacker. He is not a fan favorite. He is not a needle mover. He is not evolving. He seems to have no drive. His stats are misleading to. best season was 18 goals 35 assists but his on ice play is really frustrating. He seems to do the bare minimum as far as trying goes. Along with those 53 points is a whole lotta minus's every season. He makes costly mistakes that cost the Habs points. I honestly think if they could get a bag of pucks for him they would have already.

Habs are stuck with him.

Nick Suzuki was -15 last year, does that mean he does the bare minimum and sucks? Come on bro the whole team was garbage last year. Drouin, IMO, was playign some good hockey last season and the previous season before getting injured. And let's be honnest, he'll probably have another "Offensive minded" C in the likes of Suzuki for the 1st time in his stay witht he Habs (Danault is a lot more of a 2way C / defensive C than a offensive minded C).

 

[UnSandvich]

You can have JMFJ for him if you want

 

[Runner77]

Drouin won't get 70pts. But none of our players will. We'll have a lot of 40-50pts player. The team is built around depth and I think it's going to be a good formula.

I’d say it’s a formula by default. If rostering 3 second lines without a bona fide first line as you’ll find on most other clubs, works out, then good for the Habs. I don’t believe it’s a business model that teams would aspire to achieve otherwise. Of course, it would be way easier to justify someone like Drouin in this type of set up as expectations would be lowered.

 

[ole ole]

Oh if we could get "free" for Lucic, I would drive him to the airport.

Ya boi Drouin is worth less than free

Drouin>>>>>Lucic <<<<<free.
Run along now.

 

[topshelf15]

So much skill,he really should be far better than he is...But a 50 point winger is still decent I suppose...Maybe MTL should just wait until he has that one big year we all know he will have...Then trade him