Player Discussion: Johnny "Hockey" Gaudreau

[cbjthrowaway]

And where do you factor in their salary and percentage of the cap they take up….?? I’ll wait. Should a person paid 400% more produce 400% more?

…no? obviously? i could go into a whole diatribe here about how contract structures + salary cap rules ensure that output and resources are never meant to be aligned, but instead i'll just use your logic.

corey perry had 22 points in 52 games this year (0.42 p/gp) on a $775k salary. connor mcdavid had 132 points in 75 gp (1.76 p/gp) on a $12.5m salary.

based on what you said, perry is the (significantly) more valuable player. he only produces 1/4th as much as mcdavid, but is only paid 1/16th of what mcdavid gets.

Factually speaking, they’ve been SHIT together

factual [ fak-choo-uhl ]

1. of or relating to facts; concerning facts:
   factual accuracy.
2. based on or restricted to facts:
   a factual report.

i'm gonna need you to cite some facts there, chief

 

[thebus88]

…no? obviously? i could go into a whole diatribe here about how contract structures + salary cap rules ensure that output and resources are never meant to be aligned, but instead i'll just use your logic.

corey perry had 22 points in 52 games this year (0.42 p/gp) on a $775k salary. connor mcdavid had 132 points in 75 gp (1.76 p/gp) on a $12.5m salary.

based on what you said, perry is the (significantly) more valuable player. he only produces 1/4th as much as mcdavid, but is only paid 1/16th of what mcdavid gets.


factual [ fak-choo-uhl ]

1. of or relating to facts; concerning facts:
   factual accuracy.
2. based on or restricted to facts:
   a factual report.

i'm gonna need you to cite some facts there, chief

Well, my point is that salary/cap hit, along with ice time, and other factors, should all be taken into account, and people like you ignore them altogether.

Laine ISNT EVEN f***ING PLAYING!!

That said, I’m sure what Fantilli learned from him this year was INVALUABLE…..

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Well, my point is that salary/cap hit, along with ice time, and other factors, should all be taken into account, and people like you ignore them altogether.

the point you say you're making changes every time the point you're actually making gets refuted, so

Laine ISNT EVEN f***ING PLAYING!!

but you didn't say "this year" or "when laine wasn't in the lineup" – you said laine and gaudreau had "NEVER" provided positive value.

but they did. you mentioned ice time and cap hit should be considered, so how about quality of competition? not only did they fare significantly better (positive goal share with, outscored 2-to-1 without) but, as the only two star forwards on the team, drew harder matchups than the other forwards.

 

[majormajor]

johnny was so much better this year than people realized imo. made so many insane passes that his teammates couldn't finish on. like the one between the defender's legs to danforth last night.

his production suffered because the jackets have zero other players who can demand attention from the defense. roslovic doesn't move the needle (and couldn't finish), and danforth and nylander are fringe NHL players.

You can break down Johnny's 5v5 scoring into three parts.

The primary assists are still great, vintage Johnny.

The goals are not, and that's not so much on his teammates, he's gotten great looks most games. A lot of breakaways. If you look at his individual expected goals, they're much higher than what he put in the net.

The secondary assists are where you can talk about teammate quality. Only 7 5v5 secondary assists.

Nylander might be a fringe player, but nonetheless Johnny scored at a 2.65 P/60 next to Nylander, so that clearly is not an issue.

he also played a ton with boone, who is a good player, but imo they're not a great fit together. johnny needs another skilled, creative player in the middle. here's what jack han said about it.

Jenner's strengths as a player (size, speed, physicality) match up well with Gaudreau's weaknesses, but CBJ38 is not an ideal partner for CBJ13. ​

​

Off the rush, Jenner sprints middle and immediately makes for the front of the net. Gaudreau is better-served playing withs someone he can play give-and-go with. The winger's goalscoring has collapsed in the absence of a center who can get him the puck in space. ​

You'd think that Johnny scoring at a higher rate with Jenner than without him would matter in this discussion?

Obviously there are better centers in the world he could have played with, but we did not have one.

Jenner sprinting to the net works well with Johnny I'd say, provided the other winger is capable of playing catch with him. It doesn't matter whether he does give and go's with the center or the other winger. Jenner goes to the net is the only fixed type of role, the wingers don't enter the zone like rod hockey.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Johnny Hockey had the lowest PPG of his career this year. He scored 12 flippin goals in 81 games

He's the third (so I read somewhere) highest paid LW in the league and was T20th in points among LW.

He lacks intensity and leadership.

Sugarcoating it with some "advanced stats" isn't going to cut it. Bad contact for a declining player. No, change that. An albatross of a contract that can't be moved.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

You'd think that Johnny scoring at a higher rate with Jenner than without him would matter in this discussion?


Obviously there are better centers in the world he could have played with, but we did not have one.

han's point was that jenner's playstyle isn't an ideal fit with gaudreau, and outlines what the better hypothetical traits would be with gaudreau. this wasn't part of an analytics exercise, but a scouting/coaching tactics one.

Jenner sprinting to the net works well with Johnny I'd say, provided the other winger is capable of playing catch with him. It doesn't matter whether he does give and go's with the center or the other winger. Jenner goes to the net is the only fixed type of role, the wingers don't enter the zone like rod hockey.

i don't think han is at all off-base with his assessment. jenner's a good player but the lack of synergy he describes forces both players to become one-dimensional when playing together.

in calgary, gaudreau was awesome at finding space without the puck, then making things happen once he got it in dangerous areas. that hasn't happened here because jenner (and danforth), despite being useful players, aren't very good playmakers.

as a result, teams are able to confine johnny to the perimeter and limit his passing options to force him to move the puck to low-danger areas (around the boards to the RW, or back to the LD).

this also, i'd argue, hamstrings jenner to a degree. he's penchant for sprinting to the net and setting screens, but gaudreau isn't a perimeter scoring threat. that's why jenner and laine had so much success together in 21-22 and 22-23.

 

[majormajor]

han's point was that jenner's playstyle isn't an ideal fit with gaudreau, and outlines what the better hypothetical traits would be with gaudreau. this wasn't part of an analytics exercise, but a scouting/coaching tactics one.



i don't think han is at all off-base with his assessment. jenner's a good player but the lack of synergy he describes forces both players to become one-dimensional when playing together.

in calgary, gaudreau was awesome at finding space without the puck, then making things happen once he got it in dangerous areas. that hasn't happened here because jenner (and danforth), despite being useful players, aren't very good playmakers.

as a result, teams are able to confine johnny to the perimeter and limit his passing options to force him to move the puck to low-danger areas (around the boards to the RW, or back to the LD).

this also, i'd argue, hamstrings jenner to a degree. he's penchant for sprinting to the net and setting screens, but gaudreau isn't a perimeter scoring threat. that's why jenner and laine had so much success together in 21-22 and 22-23.

In Calgary it was actually very similar with the way Monahan played. He would park in the netfront or middle slot area, and go for tips or one timers while Johnny danced around and tried to open up a lane to get him the puck.

I think improved play on the other wing would actually help Johnny's scoring tremendously. Obviously Jenner isn't the best center for Johnny (just the best we have) but we can talk about the other wing too.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

In Calgary it was actually very similar with the way Monahan played. He would park in the netfront or middle slot area, and go for tips or one timers while Johnny danced around and tried to open up a lane to get him the puck.

sure, but:

1. gaudreau's game went supernova when he went from playing with monahan to playing with lindholm and tkachuk
2. monahan is far more skilled + a far better playmaker than jenner – monahan has exceeded jenner's career high for assists (22 in 18-19) seven different times (31, 36, 31, 33, 48, 26, 33) in ten years, and missed a ton of time with injuries in the other three seasons.

i'd actually love to reunite johnny with monahan here, but i assume he's going to a contender on a long-term deal this summer.

I think improved play on the other wing would actually help Johnny's scoring tremendously. Obviously Jenner isn't the best center for Johnny (just the best we have) but we can talk about the other wing too.

we definitely can talk about the other wing! for what it's worth, as much as i talk about jenner being a bad fit for gaudreau, i think danforth on the wing is far worse of a fit with him.

i'd like to see him get some time with chinakhov on the RW next season. i'm also not opposed to trying him with laine again, although i think laine would be better off as RW2 playing with jenner.

 

[majormajor]

sure, but:

1. gaudreau's game went supernova when he went from playing with monahan to playing with lindholm and tkachuk
2. monahan is far more skilled + a far better playmaker than jenner – monahan has exceeded jenner's career high for assists (22 in 18-19) seven different times (31, 36, 31, 33, 48, 26, 33) in ten years, and missed a ton of time with injuries in the other three seasons.

i'd actually love to reunite johnny with monahan here, but i assume he's going to a contender on a long-term deal this summer.

I don't think Monahan is a huge upgrade on Jenner. Somewhat better puck play but doesn't defend as well. Big injury risk. I'd still be curious if we could get him on a good deal but he might have played his way out of a reasonable contract.

we definitely can talk about the other wing! for what it's worth, as much as i talk about jenner being a bad fit for gaudreau, i think danforth on the wing is far worse of a fit with him.

He played about a month with Danforth like three months ago, that was the full extent of Danforth as a top line wing. I don't think anyone, including Vincent, is penciling in Danforth there again.

So you're not saying much.

i'd like to see him get some time with chinakhov on the RW next season. i'm also not opposed to trying him with laine again, although i think laine would be better off as RW2 playing with jenner.

If Laine is interested in shooting the puck and carrying less, then it might be a great fit. We'll see about his mindset when he comes back, if he's still talking like he wants to be Mario Lemieux. There's only one puck.

Chinny might be a great fit but I like him even more with Marchenko and Voronkov, if we can get Vincent to see the light.

Fantilli might be ready to step up and be a great topline wing next year. I wouldn't be putting him at center for another year or two.