Johnny Gaudreau the First Flames Rookie to Hit 50 Points Since Jarome Iginla

[Johnny Hoxville]

Funny how Backlund going down in the first bit of the season helped Monahan's development.

Also funny how we all thought We'd be screwed on the wing scoring without Cammy. Johnny has been doing quite fine.

Imagine though if we had resigned Cammy over Raymond.

 

[Skobel24]

Imagine though if we had resigned Cammy over Raymond.

I don't blame them for letting Cammy walk. He was mediocre throughout the year, and turned it on right after the deadline. I'd have rather signed neither of them.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

I don't blame them for letting Cammy walk. He was mediocre throughout the year, and turned it on right after the deadline. I'd have rather signed neither of them.

They did try to resign him though, they just had a ceiling as to how high they were prepared to go. I would of been totally cool with bringing back Cammy, he would of contributed lots on and off the ice.

 

[Calculon]

They did try to resign him though, they just had a ceiling as to how high they were prepared to go. I would of been totally cool with bringing back Cammy, he would of contributed lots on and off the ice.

Good chance bringing Cammalleri back would have just made the team's offense worse, as they'd be trying to pass the puck to him instead of shooting it themselves. Which happened a lot last year and a lot in Iginla's last years.

Plus 5M per over 5 years for a small, oft injured winger would have been a cap anchor pretty soon.

 

[CraigsList]

Would also add JG wouldn't have #13!

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Good chance bringing Cammalleri back would have just made the team's offense worse, as they'd be trying to pass the puck to him instead of shooting it themselves. Which happened a lot last year and a lot in Iginla's last years.

Plus 5M per over 5 years for a small, oft injured winger would have been a cap anchor pretty soon.

It's a fair point, I mean this team has amazing chemistry but I just think this coaching staff does such a good job communicating what is expected to the players. Cammy is a huge upgrade on Raymond and with goal scoring being such a hot commodity in the NHL, I would of took him back with no complaints. Cammy was a good teammate under Hartley and you could even see in the NJ game that he has excellent playmaking ability to.

Anyways, I'm hoping Granlund can fill a similar role but to a lesser extent for us. That kid has a great shot and should be moved to the wing.

 

[salsa man]

Looks like he played over 24 minutes the other night. That's a lot for a center, let alone a winger. Wow.

 

[StreakingRed]

A look at the most productive rookie seasons in the history of the Atlanta/Calgary Flames franchise:

Joe Nieuwendyk (1987-88) 92 pts
Sergei Makarov (1989-90) 86 pts
Carey Wilson (1984-85) 72 pts
Gary Suter (1985-86) 68 pts
Tom Lysiak (1973-74) 64 pts
Eric Vail (1974-75) 60 pts
Joel Otto (1985-86) 59 pts
Willi Plett (1976-77) 56 pts
Johnny Gaudreau (2014-15) 56 pts
Hakan Loob (1983-84) 55 pts
Paul Ranheim (1989-90) 54 pts
Jiri Hrdina (1988-89) 54 pts
Harold Phillipoff (1977-78) 53 pts
Dan Quinn (1983-84) 52 pts
Jarome Iginla (1996-97) 50 pts
Guy Chouinard (1976-77) 50 pts

 

[DCDM]

A look at the most productive rookie seasons in the history of the Atlanta/Calgary Flames franchise:

Joe Nieuwendyk (1987-88) 92 pts
Sergei Makarov (1989-90) 86 pts
Carey Wilson (1984-85) 72 pts
Gary Suter (1985-86) 68 pts
Tom Lysiak (1973-74) 64 pts
Eric Vail (1974-75) 60 pts
Joel Otto (1985-86) 59 pts
Willi Plett (1976-77) 56 pts
Johnny Gaudreau (2014-15) 56 pts
Hakan Loob (1983-84) 55 pts
Paul Ranheim (1989-90) 54 pts
Jiri Hrdina (1988-89) 54 pts
Harold Phillipoff (1977-78) 53 pts
Dan Quinn (1983-84) 52 pts
Jarome Iginla (1996-97) 50 pts
Guy Chouinard (1976-77) 50 pts

There's a very real chance we could see Johnny come close to Gary Suter's point total IMO.

 

[Rangediddy]

Is there an outside chance he can finish with 70 points? 14 points in 11 games isn't too unattainable if he and the top line stay hot.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

Is there an outside chance he can finish with 70 points? 14 points in 11 games isn't too unattainable if he and the top line stay hot.

At his current pace (excluding the first five games) he'd be on track for 10 points in this final stretch of games. 14 wouldn't be impossible and it would certainly help win some of these.

 

[CraigsList]

I think 65 is reasonable... Not sure about 70.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Before the season started I predicted that when all is said and done, that Gaudreau would be the Flames all time leader in points.

That's a very bold prediction and Iggy got a pretty good head start on Johnny when I really looked at the numbers. But I still stand by what I said in saying that I fully expect him to be playing at an elite level and I think he can be even more prolific than Iggy was due to who he's going to get to play with here. I don't think there's any question that Johnny will have multiple PPG seasons, now I'm wondering how high his ceiling is.

He's probably going to finish with around 58-62 points this year and I think next year he'll be around 70. Now you have to consider he's going to be playing with highly skilled guys in Monahan and Bennett who will reciprocate his skill level and will come close to matching his production. Then consider that Hartley likes to play an up tempo offensive system and you have all the makings for some pretty special seasons.

Looking at his past production, WhiskeyYourTheDevil put up some pretty compelling arguments on the prospect board that Johnny may in fact be capable of reaching a 90-100 point level. He used his numbers which show how his production increases from year 1 to 2 in the different leagues he's played in previously. I've noticed that to, once Johnny figures out the league he plays in, he dominates it. I've always believed that he's a winner and a special player, we're so lucky he's a Flame.

Hey Mr. Hoxville,

Sorry for the late reply - been traveling. Per your PM request, happy to share some of the analysis I've done.

(For some other previous analysis / commentary, you can check this thread)

I've attached a few graphs in a 4-up.

Here's some quick explanation, from left to right:

The first graph illustrates Johnny's tendency to show improvement over the course of the season, a trend that is emphasized in his rookie year in a league (solid lines are 1st years, dashed are 2nd/3rd years). Note that the majority of the time, the lines fall inside the gray area, which means that his ending PPG for the season tended to be greater than at times earlier in the season (indicating strong finishes)

The second graph illustrates a similar point, this time using 10 game rolling averages instead of his aggregate PPG for the entire season.

The third graph just show his PPG by league / season, "un-indexed". Makes it easier to see his progression from season to season.

The final graph shows his NCAA career progression, continuing to progress towards his final PPG average all the way up to his final game. This graphic best shows his tendency to progress both in-season, but specifically in his following seasons yr1 to yr2 to yr3.

Here's a quick post I made back in early January regarding his potential for next year, using his historical progression tendencies, as well as seasonal progression for other high IQ players in their young careers. At the time of this post, my forecast was that Johnny would end up somewhere between 67-70 points this season. I still stand by that, given his historical pattern of finishing strong (and his play as of late).

Anyways, back on topic

I reviewed Johnny's Freshman year, some interesting splits.

First 27 games: 19 points
Final 17 games: 26 points

(Interestingly enough, the USCHO stats page for him has him at 44GP 21G 24A 45P, where as hockeydb has him with 1 less assist (44GP 21G 23A 44P))

Anyways, got me thinking on his seasonal patterns. Check out the below:

Outside of his Junior Year (where he had a very hot start and then cooled off and went the the WJC), he has shown a fairly consistent pattern of improving over the course of a season, especially after the half way point of the season. His rookie NHL season fits this trend. Wouldn't be shocked to see his 2nd and 3rd year NHL trends to mirror that of his NCAA years (at a discounted growth rate ofcourse, to normalize for development). I could see 15 -30% increase in his scoring rate next season, with a productivity ceiling another 10-15% higher.

If he stays on track for ~70 points this season, that would imply ~80-90+ point season next year, and a career ceiling of 105 points, staying between 85-100 points for the majority of his prime.

Obviously, this is not very scientific and there are no guarantees his productivity growth continues. But to me, it does seem reasonable based on his historical progression, as well as historical production growth rates of other generational IQ players (which I believe he possesses).

- Gretzky increased his scoring rate 25% his 2nd year (+ another 60% for his productivity ceiling)
- Crosby increased his scoring rate 20% his 2nd year (+ another 20% for his productivity ceiling). One thing to note here is that Crosby was much more physically developed then Gretzky & Lemieux at the same age.
- Lemieux increased his scoring rate 40% his 2nd year (+ another 60% for his productivity ceiling).

Obviously, these guys came in a few years younger than Johnny, so a lot of this improvement can be attributed to physical development. But a lot of it can be linked to "figuring out" the NHL, and being given more opportunities to drive their teams offense, both of which apply to Johnny's case. With that context, I think these projections look less and less crazy and more and more reasonable.

Hope this info is helpful, let me know if anyone has any questions.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Thanks WYTD, I know you've spent lots of time analyzing Gaudreau's game and put in some amazing work here! Anytime you wanna share your opinion on him, this is definitely the right place.

When I saw you post this on the main board, I thought it was fantastic and probably the most accurate forecast I've seen anyone make using analytical data. I truly believe considering the continued evolvement of Monahan and the addition of Bennett, we will see Gaudreau record 70-75 points next season. I definitely think he has potential to be a top 5 scorer in the league within 2-3 seasons. You can see it in his game when he's playing with confidence that he goes into attack mode and just creates offence. His IQ and vision are world class and he's only going to get better. He's such a tremendous and rare talent, what a treat to watch!

 

[Mr Lebowski]

ya, thank you for the graphs and the analysis. Great work!

 

[CraigsList]

Whiskey, you're awesome.

 

[Tofveve]

Great post Whiskey.

 

[PensFan6687]

I got Johnny Gaudreau's first rookie goal puck from the Jets game. I'll try and post a picture of it later. Also disappointed I lost out on one of his 6 issued gamers this season. Two homes, two aways, 1 third alternate, and 1 retro. I was No. 7 on the list. So close, but so far away. I will get his game worn jersey next season. Just would have been nice if it was from his rookie campaign. As a consolation, I picked up Jack Eichel's retro Team USA WJC U20 jersey up. Yes, I am nuts! haha

Anyway more-so on topic to the conversation, I predicted 67 points. Not so outlandish now, which is actually surprising considering the top scorer should only get 83-85 points this season. Kid deserves the Calder, playoffs or no playoffs. No player is 150 lbs and can survive the rigours of a full NHL campaign, as he has. And the greatest thing about him, he's so humble and exuberant in his attitude. So grounded. Doesn't feel like a big-time star, even though he sure looks like one on the ice.

 

[StreakingRed]

A look at the most productive rookie seasons in the history of the Atlanta/Calgary Flames franchise (Updated):

Joe Nieuwendyk (1987-88) 92 pts
Sergei Makarov (1989-90) 86 pts
Carey Wilson (1984-85) 72 pts
Gary Suter (1985-86) 68 pts
Tom Lysiak (1973-74) 64 pts
Eric Vail (1974-75) 60 pts
Johnny Gaudreau (2014-15) 60 pts
Joel Otto (1985-86) 59 pts
Willi Plett (1976-77) 56 pts
Hakan Loob (1983-84) 55 pts
Paul Ranheim (1989-90) 54 pts
Jiri Hrdina (1988-89) 54 pts
Harold Phillipoff (1977-78) 53 pts
Dan Quinn (1983-84) 52 pts
Jarome Iginla (1996-97) 50 pts
Guy Chouinard (1976-77) 50 pts

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

I can't believe he broke 60!

 

[Lunatik]

I can't believe he broke 60!

technically he has only reached 60, he still needs a point to break it

 

[InfinityIggy]

A look at the most productive rookie seasons in the history of the Atlanta/Calgary Flames franchise (Updated):

Joe Nieuwendyk (1987-88) 92 pts
Sergei Makarov (1989-90) 86 pts
Carey Wilson (1984-85) 72 pts
Gary Suter (1985-86) 68 pts
Tom Lysiak (1973-74) 64 pts
Eric Vail (1974-75) 60 pts
Johnny Gaudreau (2014-15) 60 pts
Joel Otto (1985-86) 59 pts
Willi Plett (1976-77) 56 pts
Hakan Loob (1983-84) 55 pts
Paul Ranheim (1989-90) 54 pts
Jiri Hrdina (1988-89) 54 pts
Harold Phillipoff (1977-78) 53 pts
Dan Quinn (1983-84) 52 pts
Jarome Iginla (1996-97) 50 pts
Guy Chouinard (1976-77) 50 pts

Anyone care to adjust this list for league wide production? I lack the expertise.

 

[Lunatik]

Anyone care to adjust this list for league wide production? I lack the expertise.

let me try.

Gaudreau = awesome.

 

[Pirate King Luffy]

Anyone care to adjust this list for league wide production? I lack the expertise.

For both era's? My brain is mush right now so I don't understand what you are asking.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

technically he has only reached 60, he still needs a point to break it

You are correct!

Wonder if he'll hit 65?