Value of: John Gibson WITH RETENTION in the Offseason

[duxfan1101]

Lukas Dostal has shown that he's capable of at least being a 1B goalie who can take 30-40 starts in a season. This leaves Gibson as a trade candidate to a team that could use a starting goalie. Of course, Gibson has negative value at his full cap hit, but with retention, he would look much more attractive to other teams. Ideally, the Ducks would retain $1-2M, but if it nets the Ducks a quality asset, I would absolutely be willing to go to 50% retention ($3.2M for 3 more years). Gibson does have a 10 team no trade list, however, at this point I believe he would waive to go to just about any team that has a chance at the playoffs. The Ducks should be willing to take back a bad contract in a deal for Gibson, so long as the length of that contract is not longer than Gibson's (3 more years).

I do genuinely believe that Gibson can still be a top 10-15 starting goalie in this league. He just seems checked out with the Ducks at this point, and to be honest, it's hard to blame him. If he joined a more competitive team, I'm sure we would see what he's actually capable of. I totally understand the risk involved with acquiring Gibson, which is why I would be willing to retain so much money and to take back a bad contract.

Would Detroit be interested in Husso+ for Gibson with retention? Would New Jersey be interested if they miss out on Markstrom? Could the Kings squeeze him in with significant retention? Maybe an Elvis for Gibson swap? What other possibilities are out there, or are there any?

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[KovalchukFistPump]

Gibson has been either outperformed or been equal to his backups pretty much every year the last 4 years. I just don't see any team taking him on. This is why you front-load your contracts so that you can trade them to a tanking team later on.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Gibson finished with another year below an .900 save% and was outperformed by his backup again Color me shocked.

How many more years of Gibson putting up below average numbers will it take for Ducks fans to realize he's just not very good? I can't see why any team would trade for him.

 

[Forge]

I had a mild curiosity on Gibson before, but .888 this year, third worst goals saved above expected for goalies with 35 games played per moneypuck I'm just out on that now. I'd rather bring back kahkonen as a devils fan

 

[Doothpick]

Ducks fans talk about how it's mostly an "attitude" problem with him, but I think it's more of a confidence issue at this point. Dostal coming in hot, and him not getting into a decent rhythm I think plays a huge part of it, since he did look solid early season and okay-ish the past few.

I think Gibson could very easily bounce back. I also think it's quite possible he is done as a starter in the league. He probably is with the Ducks, though. He is a total wildcard at this point and I doubt (and rightfully so) there would be many suitors for him without sizable retention. Which is something Ducks may not be willing to do. At least for now.

My non-biased take; If I were GM of middling team with cap space looking for a potential starter, I'd gladly part with mid-round pick for him even without 50% retention. I do however think at this point the only way he bounces back if he plays in front of a decent defensive system. Doesn't have to be good, but something better than the Ducks have employed for years now.

As a Ducks fan I don't really care. They aren't against the cap, and I don't think he's the cancer most Ducks fans make him out be. Even in the years when they were winning he always looked like he couldn't care less. That's just who he is. It doesn't mean he isn't a competitor. I still view him as a professional, just for the fact he's stayed with the team (at least we can't know for sure if he has actually asked for a trade) through some truly awful teams/systems these last few years. If you have ever been a goalie you know it takes it's toll and that's why I view it as confidence issue.

So if there are teams with cap space who lack a starter, and have none in the pipeline they could have a gem in their hands with him. Or a total dud. Goalies are voodoo.

Edit: For some reason I always think his cap hit was around 5.5, but now I read the OP and once again remember it's 6.4. Eeh, maybe then full retention is needed since it runs 3 more years.

 

[tomd]

The three likely options at this point are:
1. Buyout $2.133 million for six years
2. Trade with 50% retention $3.2 million for 3 years
3. Keep him next year and hope he bounces back. If not, revisit options 1 and 2 but with one less contract year.

A trade with 50% retention would probably be best for all parties.

 

[Czechboy]

I want him gone to make way for Dostal and eventually Suchanek.

I do think he's a very good goalie and I'd like to see him in NJ to be honest. I have no logic or rationale but I think he'd do great there.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Guy is cooked. More power to the Ducks if they can find a taker for his awful contract.

 

[tomd]

I want him gone to make way for Dostal and eventually Suchanek.

I do think he's a very good goalie and I'd like to see him in NJ to be honest. I have no logic or rationale but I think he'd do great there.

Suchanek continues to impress wherever he plays but he's a long way from the NHL right now. Not a criticism of him just a factual observation based on his lack of NHL goaltending size. He has a lot to overcome...I hope he does but I wouldn't be betting anything on it right now.

 

[Czechboy]

Suchanek continues to impress wherever he plays but he's a long way from the NHL right now. Not a criticism of him just a factual observation based on his lack of NHL goaltending size. He has a lot to overcome...I hope he does but I wouldn't be betting anything on it right now.

Oh I didn't mean next year.lol And totally agree with all your points.

But, at this point, I'd like Dostal to be the defacto 1 and Gibson gone. I may be being selfish or shortsighted though.

 

[Jayevs]

50% retention for Georgiev

 

[tomd]

Oh I didn't mean next year.lol And totally agree with all your points.

But, at this point, I'd like Dostal to be the defacto 1 and Gibson gone. I may be being selfish or shortsighted though.

Dostal is, in effect if not reality, the #1 goaltender for the Ducks right now. Assuming no changes over the summer I think they go into next camp even and battle it out for #1 rights.

I agree that a Gibson trade would be best for all parties concerned. The problem is establishing his true value in the trade market. I've said on the Ducks board that if GMPV can trade him this summer he ought to win the GM of the Decade award.

 

[Rudy Russo]

Jarry baby!

 

[majormajor]

I'm not a goalie scout but FWIW I think his technique has gotten a lot worse over the years. Gibson doesn't look like a good goalie to me.

 

[Petes2424]

3-4 months ago, I would’ve said he’s gonna end up in Detroit this summer. Now, I’d almost bet Detroit ends up with Markstrom instead. 100% because of where Sebastian Cossa is now at in his development. It’s now a better fit. Could it still happen? Sure.

An Andrew Copp for Gibson trade could make some sense, if Yzerman thinks Gibson will be able to step up to playing important games. He’d likely have Lyon as a backup for a year, then split time with Cossa for a year or two.

Anaheim is gonna want to add a player or two, just like Copp this off-season, to mesh with the young players. Having pros-pro types in the lineup is a must, to help your kids develop, and Silverberg is out. Him being $1-$1.5 million overpaid, washes out any retention on Gibson. Whether Husso would go back to Anaheim as well, who knows. He’ll be traded or bought out this summer. Can’t see a return to Detroit.

Detroit is poised to acquire a veteran though. Think that’s a slam dunk this off-season. A player with 2-3 years left on his deal. So Gibson does fit, as long as they’re comfortable with where he’s at.

 

[lwvs84]

I defended Gibson under Eakins, and still think he was better than his numbers. This year, though, it feels like he's given up at the beginning of games (after the first couple weeks of the season). He was making stops the last few years on shots that are going in this year. He might rebound on a different team and maybe under a new goals coach. Hopefully the Ducks can move him without killing their cap after the next couple of years.

 

[Bleedred]

Gibson is an elite goalie. One of the best goalies in the league. He’s constantly ranked by players as one of the hardest goalies to score on.

Someone will take him.

But you’ll also have to give Anaheim something of value, especially if you want them to retain.

no but seriously, Gibson sucks anymore. And he may finally no longer be the most overrated goalie in the league. Because not many people actually still think he’s good.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

His entire situation has been mismanaged for 5 years, he has no value whatsoever even with retention. Teams are not going to allocate much money to a low end starter or backup

 

[duxfan1101]

50% retention for Georgiev

I wouldn’t like it, but if that’s the best offer we get, I’d probably do it.

 

[LuGBuG]

I used to be on the Gibson would still be good on a different team.

Now I just need him on a different team.

For anything at all.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Not sure he is even worth it at 50% retention with the continued brutal years.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

50% retention for Georgiev

The Avs and Wings (Husso) are two options that came to mind

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Something around Jack Campbell.

Change of scenery.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Gibson used to be an elite goalie. After a number of sub par years playing for awful teams, you would have to consider this guy a reclamation project, and even at 50%, that's an expensive project.

 

[duxfan1101]

Something around Jack Campbell.

Change of scenery.

I'd consider it if Edmonton added something worthwhile.