Believe it or not, you're actually way off on the bolded. The average age of an NCAA team is actually up over 22. (source:
http://www.collegehockeynews.com/stats/). If you go to Vesey's frosh season in 2012/2013, the average age was almost 25!
I'm just going off the EP ages. In the Ivy League last year;
Harvard -
average age 20.29
Cornell -
average age 20.46
Princeton -
average age 20.79
Brown -
average age 20.92
Yale -
average age 21.04
Dartmouth -
average age 21.08
Obviously, top players in the Ivy league players stay to graduation more often than other schools. If you look at top programs outside the Ivy League it's even younger;
Boston College -
average age of 19.79
Michigan -
average age of 19.95
Boston U -
average age of 20.0
Minnesota -
average age of 20.08
North Dakota -
average age of 20.44
Denver -
average age of 20.59
Maybe I should have said just over 20 instead of just under 20. To get an average age of 22 you'd have to include the DII and III teams where 21 year old freshman are not uncommon. To get an average age of 25 I think you'd have to include the ages of coaches, administrators and maybe DHK.
In any event, Vesey does have a peer group, but it's not Hobey Baker winner Johnny Gaudreau, who was putting up a ppg as a
very young 18 year old, and it's not Jack Eichel, who won the Hobey Baker at an even younger 18 posting 1.8 ppg. One of those guys is elite and one is generational.
Vesey's peer group is a good one in it's own right, but clearly not in the company of Gaudreau/Eichel and players of that ilk. If we are talking about players with NHL size winning the Hobey Baker in their senior year of college on the strength of 40ish-60ish point seasons this century we are talking about Drew LeBlanc, Jack Connolly, Blake Geoffrion, Kevin Porter, Matt Carle, Junior Lessard, Jordan Leopold, Mike Mottau. That's not a bad peer group in itslef and Vesey ends up being the caliber of one of those guys that's alright to. I don't think any of those guys jumped into a top 6/top pair role (maybe Leopold & Carle?). Some never made it at all.
I am as impressed as everyone else by Vesey's interview with Hags, in that he comes accross as a level headed, articulate young man with some good strong character. That's everything you would expect of a 4 year Harvard man and qualities the Bruins rightly covet. In fact that interview for me, hearing directly from the kid, changed my opinion on him in a very positive way. At the same time, I feel the expectations around here don't match the resume. If we are worried about Jimmy Vesey getting the Jimmy Hayes treatment, it seems to me the best thing to do is start tempering expectations. Not lowering them, but keeping them relative to his actual peer group and not holding expectations of him that he simply can't live up to. It's the
unrealistic expectations that risk turning into a self fulfilling prophecy, re: Hayes treatment.
I'm not at all saying Vesey will come in and compete for the Calder (wherever he ends up), but it's just wrong to consider him an average NCAA prospect. He should definitely be considered a high-level prospect coming into whatever organization, and would definitely change some things for us if he came here.
I used the Zach Hyman comparison because it fits, but you can use any of his cohorts listed above to arrive at reasonable expectation. Hyman is roughly the same size, put up 22 goals and 54 points as a senior wearing a letter for Michigan. He played a little in the NHL in the year immediately following his graduation and also groomed his game in the AHL. Those are pretty safe expectation for Vesey as well. If he surpasses those expectations then whatever team ends up with him will be very happy. As for unrealistic fans ... well, there's never any satisfying that crowd. I'm sure the threads on here will be unfairly cruel if it goes that way.
(NOTE on Andy Miele: I don't consider him in Vesey's class because he's 5'8 and didn't reach ppg numbers until he was older than his opponents. Smaller guys who have success tend to do so against older and stronger players. Vesy much > Miele)
This thread is hilarious. Does a really nice job of showing you what type of poster a person is in general, given all the different takes. We have the eternal optimists, the curmudgeons, the "grass is always greener" folks,
the stats guys, the prospect guys (and gals for all of these
).
Guilty!