Post-Game Talk: Jets hold on, win 2:1

[surixon]

I'm fine with Mason playing the next game. Let's get some goalie competition happening.

I'm also fine with It, the team has only 2 games in the next 11 ish days or so. We need both guys going.

 

[tntkid]

Ehlers is proving he is one of the best players on this team and worth every penny of his contract.

Hellebuyck is actually playing solid and giving the team confidence.

Mason needs to keep riding the bench.

 

[lomiller1]

Proving once again these charts mean very little. We won

Great, we won but unless we start to play a lot better we won't be saying that very often this year.

 

[Guffman]

If Kulikov misses games, would Poolman playing LHD be better than Chariot? I seem to recall some posters not being happy in preseason when Poolman played LHD.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

If Kulikov misses games, would Poolman playing LHD be better than Chariot? I seem to recall some posters not being happy in preseason when Poolman played LHD.

There's few options worse than Chariot. I'd definitely play Poolman on left over Chiarot anywhere.

 

[Ducky10]

Helle- really good
Ehlers- really good

Trouba-tough night
Laine- simply awful. His worst play maybe being losing that rim around the boards by Little in the last minute...and letting his man get by him. He was brutal.

 

[JetsFan815]

Score effects play a role in these charts though. The two games prior to this one the Jets where controlling the shot clock until they got multi goal leads and then the other teams got the majority of the shots. Today was the one win where they didn't. I'm not worried as there has been a noticeable improvement in our play in our end. Once the team gets that down part they will start to dictate things more offensively imo.

The chart I posted is the score-adjusted Corsi. I agree about the score-effects so I mostly look at Score Adjusted Corsi. The Jets have been over 50% in SAC in only 1 game (the Oilers game) although they came close in the Canucks game.

To feel good about the Jets, (score adjusted) shot attempt wise I would have liked to see around a tie with the Oilers (which they did). Easily beat the Canucks, running closer to a double digit advantage (the jets only came close to tieing them) and kept the Canes shot advantage to like 5-6%, keep them from getting to double digits at the very least, instead they lost it by almost 18%.

This discussion inspired me to think of way to quanitify "how much should a team should win/lose the shot attempt battle against another team" rather than me saying "It would have been better to win it against another team x% or lose to anohter team by just y%"

I don't know if this stat already exists or not but here's something that I'm calling "Quality Above Expected Corsi". This is similar to the Quality SV % but slightly different. If we look at the average (score adjusted) Corsi for each team from last season, then for each game they play against the Jets we can can come up with a number for "how much should the Jets win/lose the shot battle against that team in the game to be land around league average". In other words it gives us an idea of how far off the Jets were in that game from a league average team that played against their opponenent in the previous sesason.

Here's the table for the Jets so far:

Opponent	Quality Above Expected Corsi
Leafs	-3.71
Flames	-11.32
Oilers	2.18
Canucks	-3.72
Hurricanes	-7.47

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

If you are 0 or above then you are at par or above. So judging by above there has been only 1 game where the Jets Corsi For met or exceeded the average Corsi Against from last season of the team they were playing against.

This is not perfect ofcourse, teams have roster turnover, change coaches, systems change etc which makes their numbers from last season not as applicable but it should still give a rough idea (and this season's data can be used after teams have played ~25 games).

 

[ps241]

Great, we won but unless we start to play a lot better we won't be saying that very often this year.

Goalies are buying us time which isn’t the worst thing. We usually don’t get this type of help and hopefully the team steps it up here soon.

 

[surixon]

This discussion inspired me to think of way to quanitify "how much should a team should win/lose the shot attempt battle against another team" rather than me saying "It would have been better to win it against another team x% or lose to anohter team by just y%"

I don't know if this stat already exists or not but here's something that I'm calling "Quality Above Expected Corsi". This is similar to the Quality SV % but slightly different. If we look at the average (score adjusted) Corsi for each team from last season, then for each game they play against the Jets we can can come up with a number for "how much should the Jets win/lose the shot battle against that team in the game to be land around league average". In other words it gives us an idea of how far off the Jets were in that game from a league average team that played against their opponenent in the previous sesason.

Here's the table for the Jets so far:

Opponent	Quality Above Expected Corsi
Leafs	-3.71
Flames	-11.32
Oilers	2.18
Canucks	-3.72
Hurricanes	-7.47

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

If you are 0 or above then you are at par or above. So judging by above there has been only 1 game where the Jets Corsi For met or exceeded the average Corsi Against from last season of the team they were playing against.

This is not perfect ofcourse, teams have roster turnover, change coaches, systems change etc which makes their numbers from last season not as applicable but it should still give a rough idea (and this season's data can be used after teams have played ~25 games).

I don't think anyone thinks is this team has played great to start the year. Weve had some great individual performances but as a whole the team hasnt clicked very well yet. The positives are that the last three games has seen a much better focus on defense and we are starting to give up less quality chances (Step 1). On the flipside we haven't looked very good offensively (Likely due to the focus on defense). Given the talent on the team it's really only a matter of time before that comes around imo. I'm not satisfied with our play but the positives are that last year this team would have found ways to lose games like today and against Vancouver. There seems to be a new mentality and a level of maturity on this team so far this season. They aren't panicking as much.

They definitely will have to find some cohesion moving forward though.

 

[GNP]

The "key" to winning in the NHL is great goaltending, and we're getting it right now with Helle playing at around a .937 Save percentage, and if it wasn't for that, our record would not be the same-probably ( 2-3) --same as last year. Be a mistake to start Mason, when Helle is on fire- "ride him out."

Other Things :

1) as I've said before- Ehlers is the key to the Jets offence, along with Schief. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Nik finish in the top 10 in scoring this year. The guy has blazing speed, and a great accurate shot. This guy is fabulous !!! In my opinion, he's the Jets best player, and brings a great attitude.

2) Penalties- the Jets took to many again, and it's the veteran players who are taking them, and Maurice "has to" do something about it.

3) Jet's need to adjust their thinking and go with 3 "top lines" and include Kyle Connor, who I think is just about as talented as Ehlers. Don't forget Connor broke Jack Eichel's records in University, and Eichel just signed for $ 10 Mil - Jet's are making a mistake by not playing him with the big club right now. Hopefully with Perrault down-"they call him up" and he stays. Our defence is good enough to cover for Connor's lack of defensive play, and he will learn that part of the game.

4) PK - you need hustlers for this part of the game and Tanev covers a lot of ice fast with his hustle- "he should be on the PK" with Lowry and Armia. Lowry should only play in a 4-th line capacity, and nothing more.

Note - I hope the Jets do all of the above, and we'll push deep into the playoffs, as we have the talent in spades.

I see a lot of political push here to bring Connor up -"I think that's great"

 

[buggs]

Home from game now. Very pleased with win but that second period? I sit in 112 and the whole second period was in front of me. Props to Carolina for that but we stunk until Buff hit someone hard.

How many giveaways did Laine have in the second? Ick.

Helle ++++ Well deserved first star.

Ehlers. Brilliant contract. The only one in the league that might make Scheifele's deal look less than full value.

Laine - uh, hello, one move too many, channeling your inner Burmistrov. Please stop. That second period was what? Five, maybe six giveaways. Way, way better player than he showed tonight.

Jets were fortunate to win, many holes in game. Liked PK, unusually aggressive at times. Next six games are home and away with MN/PIT/CBS, play this way and you will be 0-6 unless your goaltenders steal games. Not, not good.

Sorry, edit, forgot to add Tanev. Don't like the line blender and don't ever want to see him in top six, but you can't question that kid's compete level. Fast yes, but it's the effort. Skill level limited but heart strong beyond belief. He belongs on the ice, if only to make others look bad for their own effort.

 

[JetsFan815]

I don't think anyone thinks is this team has played great to start the year. Weve had some great individual performances but as a whole the team hasnt clicked very well yet. The positives are that the last three games has seen a much better focus on defense and we are starting to give up less quality chances (Step 1). On the flipside we haven't looked very good offensively (Likely due to the focus on defense). Given the talent on the team it's really only a matter of time before that comes around imo. I'm not satisfied with our play but the positives are that last year this team would have found ways to lose games like today and against Vancouver. There seems to be a new mentality and a level of maturity on this team so far this season. They aren't panicking as much.

They definitely will have to find some cohesion moving forward though.

And my fear is that they will look at the wins and decide to continue with more of the same. I am glad that the Jets have 6 points inspite of not playing great but the advantage of a 1-4 thumping to start the season would have been that Maurice would atleast have tried something else from what's not really working at the moment.

 

[sipowicz]

Helle- really good
Ehlers- really good

Trouba-tough night
Laine- simply awful. His worst play maybe being losing that rim around the boards by Little in the last minute...and letting his man get by him. He was brutal.

Laine looks a lot slower this season, his play on the PP has been awful whenever he handles the puck, kid has a pretty decent shot though!

 

[rehf]

And my fear is that they will look at the wins and decide to continue with more of the same. I am glad that the Jets have 6 points inspite of not playing great but the advantage of a 1-4 thumping to start the season would have been that Maurice would atleast have tried something else from what's not really working at the moment.

Agreed.

There are still so many obvious glaring issues with how the Jets play and it's only a matter of time before teams will capitalize on them. Hellebuyck has stolen the last three.

If we keep playing the way we have been (which we will, because Maurice) the Jets will lose more than they will win.

 

[mcpw]

Yay, win.
Helle steals the third game in a row.
Maybe have the skaters win the next one.

 

[GNP]

Laine looks a lot slower this season, his play on the PP has been awful whenever he handles the puck, kid has a pretty decent shot though!

You are right on Laine- "he is slow"- not so much in full stride, but moreso out of the hole. His first 2-3 steps are very slow, and that leaves him behind a bit. That's a problem when you have such a big body, and he's still growing into it. Ehlers on the other hand is at full speed after his 3-rd stride.- "big difference"

I still think Laine will be a great goal scorer, because he has that quick release, and such a hard accurate shot, and he's still only 19. We need this guy !!!

 

[Aavco Cup]

Great, we won but unless we start to play a lot better we won't be saying that very often this year.

What makes you think we won't play better? I know I expect it

 

[Jeffsrig]

I am sure I will get critiqued for saying this but as much hate as there is for Lowry around here he was sorely missed tonight.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Any chance of starting up that thread again Gin? It was always one of my favorites.

I need to update my web-scraper: the NHL.com changes broke it last year. I could potentially do it manually for a spell, then fix the scraper when I get time - I'll give it some thought later this week.

---

I really hope that Myers shakes off some rust quickly - didn't like his game much tonight, again. Made some very questionable calls with the puck, especially when trying to exit the Jets zone.

 

[Blue Shakehead]

Great win, another huge game by Helle.

Good: Hellebuyck, Scheifele, Ehlers, Little, Buff, Morrissey

Decent: Armia, Copp, Dano, Petan, Tanev, Matthias and overall team speed and PK w/o Adam "Snow Plow" Plowry

Bad: Wheeler, Perreault, Tyler "Brutal Buff" Myers , Jacob "Bad Buff" Trouba,

Terrible: Maurice

Laine got robbed of a goal with the laser off the post and an another assist when he faked a wrister and put it on Perreaults stick for an empty net. He had a tough night on the boards, but so did everyone else. Carolina was doubling up on the boards because they knew thats how we break out....which brings me to:

Maurice. Its so painful to watch us give Carolina free breakouts all night while we coudn't get a clean breakout and the few times we did, we couldnt get any speed through the neutral zone. Those stretch pass dump ins and then revert to prevent defense is not a winning strategy. I have no doubt that we are a 100 point team if Bill Peters is our coach.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Is it surprising? I am surprised there weren't more penalties taken by the Jets. Penalties tend to get taken when you are on your heals and stuck in your own zone for like a 60-70% of the game

[mod] Maurice is not being fired.

I think some people here actually want us to lose and are disppointed that we won the game.

 

[JetsNut]

When Maurice gets fired I'm going to call Chipman and cash in my favours to make you the next head coach!

 

[Snot Rocket]

We've had, statistically speaking, above average goaltending the past 3 games. If they kept playkng like against Toronto and Calgary we'd be close to 0-5 since we're not scoring a ton and Mo would be on the hot seat. Makes sense to me.

I am at a loss to make sense of that reasoning.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Hmmm. Masons old team. Helle on fire.. Be hard not to start him but id suspect Maurice is dumb and will start Mason.

I believe he said earlier today that Mason would start against the Jackets

 

[TorJet]

Complaining about Tanev on the second line, due to an injury, is ridiculous.

There were 4 options. Armia, Mattias, Dano and Tanev. Copp and Petan couldn’t move up as they were the only remaining centres, and they’d otherwise be the likely choices.

Of those 4, there are no “good” choices.

More than that,Tanev actually did well in that role - great forecheck and created some chances on that line

[mod]