Post-Game Talk: Jets hold on, win 2:1

[KingBogo]

Columbus game will be much more difficult. They swarm the area around the net and get bodies to the net hard. If the Jets give them anyway near the offensive zone time that they gave the Canes, it will not be a pretty night.

As long as we keep giving mostly the low percentage looks from outside prime scoring areas as we gave the Canes solid goaltending will put us in good position.

 

[JetsFan815]

Some interesting stats, compiled by hockeystats.com.

5v5 Scoring Chances Differential:

Vs.

Leafs -3
Flames -5
Oilers +9
Canucks +14
Canes -1

Season to date.... +14

This tends to comport with my viewing of the Jets' play. They have been reasonably good at limiting scoring chances, and tend not to shoot from low danger areas. In contrast, the Canucks just put the puck toward the net at any chance, seldom even looking to make a play. The Canes were more like that, too.

This is a very different team, and many of the forwards ate going to be looking for plays rather than taking shots. Similarly, the D are inclined to dump the puck behind the net if they don't have a good shot opportunity. I'm not sure if this will result in better outcomes, but time will tell.

"Scoring Chances" are just binning what should be a continuous variable. Not a fan of this stat. xGF% is better to understand the quality of chances the Jets are taking and giving up. According to mannyelk's xGoals model the Jets have an xGF% of 47.79% good for 20th in the league while rocking a 45.9 CF% good for 25th in the league.

Moreover atleast this season the Jets' relatively better xGF% to their CF% is coming mostly from restricting xGA. The Jets xGF/60 is terrible and 6th worst in the league around the same place as their Corsi, which again indicates a team that stays hemmed in their zone.

So yes is some truth to Jets restricting the quality of shots against but that only goes so far. Last season the following teams overperformed their xGF% relative to their CF% by more than 1%:

Wild clearly seem like an oulier of sorts, Bourdreau is doing some vodooo there. The Jets so far this season are around where they were last season. At best I think we can expect them to be around where the Pittsburg Penguins were last season. That still means only a 2.3% bump above their CF% even in the likely best case scenario. Even then the current 46% Corsi means that wins are unsustainable in the long run unless something changes. If the Jets hope to be a contender they need to be able to come close to atleast breaking even in the shot battle. The fact that the Jets are not playing enough in the offensive zone is unmistakable and that is something that is on the coach to address.

 

[KingBogo]

I thought Wheeler had a really good captains post game interview last night. Spread out the praise and focused on what the team needed to do for continued success.

http://illegalcurve.com/2017/10/14/game-5-jets-2-hurricanes-1-post-game-report/

 

[Whileee]

"Scoring Chances" are just binning what should be a continuous variable. Not a fan of this stat. xGF% is better to understand the quality of chances the Jets are taking and giving up. According to mannyelk's xGoals model the Jets have an xGF% of 47.79% good for 20th in the league while rocking a 45.9 CF% good for 25th in the league.

Moreover atleast this season the Jets' relatively better xGF% to their CF% is coming mostly from restricting xGA. The Jets xGF/60 is terrible and 6th worst in the league around the same place as their Corsi, which again indicates a team that stays hemmed in their zone.

So yes is some truth to Jets restricting the quality of shots against but that only goes so far. Last season the following teams overperformed their xGF% relative to their CF% by more than 1%:

Wild clearly seem like an oulier of sorts, Bourdreau is doing some vodooo there. The Jets so far this season are around where they were last season. At best I think we can expect them to be around where the Pittsburg Penguins were last season. That still means only a 2.3% bump above their CF% even in the likely best case scenario. Even then the current 46% Corsi means that wins are unsustainable in the long run unless something changes. If the Jets hope to be a contender they need to be able to come close to atleast breaking even in the shot battle. The fact that the Jets are not playing enough in the offensive zone is unmistakable and that is something that is on the coach to address.

Don't disagree with some of the methodological points, but the real issue is that it's way too early in the season to make any conclusions about trends.

 

[Gm0ney]

Some interesting stats, compiled by hockeystats.com.

5v5 Scoring Chances Differential:

Vs.

Leafs -3
Flames -5
Oilers +9
Canucks +14
Canes -1

Season to date.... +14

This tends to comport with my viewing of the Jets' play. They have been reasonably good at limiting scoring chances, and tend not to shoot from low danger areas. In contrast, the Canucks just put the puck toward the net at any chance, seldom even looking to make a play. The Canes were more like that, too.

This is a very different team, and many of the forwards ate going to be looking for plays rather than taking shots. Similarly, the D are inclined to dump the puck behind the net if they don't have a good shot opportunity. I'm not sure if this will result in better outcomes, but time will tell.

This isn't what Natural Stat Trick is showing. They report the opposite - the Jets are -12 in SC +/- to date. -14 at even strength. This is using the War-on-Ice definition of a scoring chance http://blog.war-on-ice.com/#note-3 (you have to scroll down a bit).

 

[CaptainChef]

Speaking of danger area shots, this is interesting. Really low amount of shots close in by the Canes, and very few in the really dangerous part of the slot (more charts and graphics here: http://hockeyviz.com/game/2017020068):

Compare that to the Jets - they had way more in close in very dangerous spots:

Really looks like Carolina was just throwing the puck at the net, whenever they got the chance, hoping for a dirty rebound of some sort. Unfortunately for them, Helle's been like a sponge this year: if it hits him, he seems to just soak it in and kill off any secondary chances.

Superb look at the shot distribution Gin. Only caught the thrid period where Jets were quite good, but to hear many talk here, they acted like we stole a game. Certainly not so when you look at this. Perhaps when you factor in the PP however it might look different?

 

[Gm0ney]

Superb look at the shot distribution Gin. Only caught the thrid period where Jets were quite good, but to hear many talk here, they acted like we stole a game. Certainly not so when you look at this. Perhaps when you factor in the PP however it might look different?

Doesn't change things that much I don't think. The Jets did a good job of keeping Carolina out of the low slot for the most part. Here's a different look from NaturalStatTrick.com of
5v5 Score and Venue Adjusted

and
All Situations

You can look at Carolina's other games here https://www.naturalstattrick.com/games.php?team=CAR - it looks like they got a lot more shot attempts from the low slot when they played Columbus and Minnesota, so I think we can guess that they'd have preferred to get more pressure in the crease, but just weren't able to against the Jets.

I have noticed the Jets collapsing quite deep - especially on the powerplay but a bit at evens as well. Hellebuyck's rebound control probably helps limit the low slot shots as well.

 

[Whileee]

This isn't what Natural Stat Trick is showing. They report the opposite - the Jets are -12 in SC +/- to date. -14 at even strength. This is using the War-on-Ice definition of a scoring chance http://blog.war-on-ice.com/#note-3 (you have to scroll down a bit).

...and their high-danger chances for % has the Jets at 50% (34 vs. 34).

Caps, Hawks, Blues and Sens are in the bottom 5.

It's early in the season.

 

[Howard Chuck]

Speaking of danger area shots, this is interesting. Really low amount of shots close in by the Canes, and very few in the really dangerous part of the slot (more charts and graphics here: http://hockeyviz.com/game/2017020068):

Compare that to the Jets - they had way more in close in very dangerous spots:

Really looks like Carolina was just throwing the puck at the net, whenever they got the chance, hoping for a dirty rebound of some sort. Unfortunately for them, Helle's been like a sponge this year: if it hits him, he seems to just soak it in and kill off any secondary chances.

Great chart. Even I can understand it! Exactly how I would hope it would look.

 

[lomiller1]

This is such an interesting and multi faceted post !!! I'd rather play poorly and win, because "points" are the final measuring stick, if you advance to the playoffs.

If we keep playing poorly we won't get enough points to make the playoffs.

Over my time of watching sports, I've seen a lot of great teams play poor, but pull out the game in the end. Teams like the 85 Oilers, and the Patriots of the NFL.

Apples to Oranges. Those are teams that were really good most of the time. Don't let a couple wins stolen by our goaltender fool you. We have not been good any of the time this year. We have no hope of making the playoffs playing like we have so far this year.

 

[Evil Little]

6 points every 5 games... right?

I don't get it and I'm scared.

Atleast all fanbases can agree about wanting Stempniak back

Not every fanbase. At this point he hasn't even played for a third the teams in the league.

 

[Analyst365]

I thought Wheeler had a really good captains post game interview last night. Spread out the praise and focused on what the team needed to do for continued success.

http://illegalcurve.com/2017/10/14/game-5-jets-2-hurricanes-1-post-game-report/

Honestly though. What kind of leader doesn't whip out some spreadsheets or cloropleth maps to make his point in this day and age ...

 

[ps241]

If we keep playing poorly we won't get enough points to make the playoffs.



Apples to Oranges. Those are teams that were really good most of the time. Don't let a couple wins stolen by our goaltender fool you. We have not been good any of the time this year. We have no hope of making the playoffs playing like we have so far this year.

Can you imagine how nice it would be to have Helly play at this level for 63 games. That’s pretty much what the Jackets got out of Bob last season 63 games .931 save%.

Where can we sign up for one of those guys.

 

[Calendal]

Can you imagine how nice it would be to have Helly play at this level for 63 games. That’s pretty much what the Jackets got out of Bob last season 63 games .931 save%.

Where can we sign up for one of those guys.

I don't expect the quality of his play to dip that much, but with a long summer of training with a different goalie coach he's certainly managed to address some of his weaknesses. Other teams will watch videos and will start taking slightly different shots (to address whatever is now his weak spot, too early to tell). Either way, extremely small sample size as of now. Still, it's looking positive.

 

[GJF]

Wasn't his glove quite shaky last season? Looks confident and rock solid for now <3

 

[nobody important]

At some point, Bucky is going to have a bad game. Like highlight reel bad. Not a shot at Bucky, pretty much every goalie has them. Maybe not Carey f***ing Price, the tiny, perfect goalie but other than him...

It will be interesting to see how he and the team respond after such a game. Does he psych himself out a la Hutch? Do the Jets revert to their #1 (by salary) for an extended stretch to give Bucky time to work on his game with Flaherty?

 

[Whileee]

At some point, Bucky is going to have a bad game. Like highlight reel bad. Not a shot at Bucky, pretty much every goalie has them. Maybe not Carey ****ing Price, the tiny, perfect goalie but other than him...

It will be interesting to see how he and the team respond after such a game. Does he psych himself out a la Hutch? Do the Jets revert to their #1 (by salary) for an extended stretch to give Bucky time to work on his game with Flaherty?

It'll be more interesting to see how Maurice responds. I hope his penchant for the early hook is diminished.

 

[GoJetsGo55]

Was at the game. Couple of takeaways:

• Hellebuyck: Absolutely fantastic. His rebound control is lightyears ahead of what it was last year.
• Byfuglien: Very bad in the first. Tried to make too many fancy passes in our own zone. Almost gave the Canes a few goals on a silver platter. 3rd period though....when he throws the body, he's a monster
• Ehlers: Ehlers is love. Ehlers is life.
• Laine: Disaster on the PP. 5 giveaways in one of them.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Toronto:

Calgary:

Those look terrible in comparison. Also: the Jets shots in those two games came from outside the really dangerous areas.

The Calgary game it was a lot of high danger shots and a lot of less dangerous shots. That was just a lot of shots!

Interesting charts. We should keep in mind that Bucky relieved Mason in that first game and didn't do any better. Mason has clearly had a tougher row to hoe.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Man, may not have been a pretty win but I'll take it over what's happening in Edmonton right now!

Ain't that the truth!

I'm not complaining about winning games that we played badly. I'm not complaining about winning games with goaltending. I am complaining about not playing well at all through 5 games.

I hope that what I have been seeing is a lot of players committing to playing a structured game that they just haven't got down to where it is automatic yet. If so, then the defensive play should soon get better. Then maybe the offensive creativity will return.

 

[Peggy]

I'll be honest. Haven't got to watch a game yet
But it just sounds like the team we expect from pomo

They're 3-2 and haven't played that great
(According to hf) :/

 

[Imcanadianeh]

It'll be more interesting to see how Maurice responds. I hope his penchant for the early hook is diminished.

Just out curiosity but how many goals in how much time needs to happen before it is ok to pull goal?

It not like hellebuyck would get pulled after letting in 2 quick goals.

He had many game were he would allow 4-5 goals halfway through the game.

Or allow 3 easy goals halfway through the first period.