Post-Game Talk: Jets 4 - TB Maulers 2

[tbcwpg]

I’d go hard after Horvat if he would resign. Then you have both of them for the playoffs and if you have to trade PLD at the draft you’ll get back into the first round.

I don't think he'd re-sign.

 

[LowLefty]

I kind of liked Laine’s personality and shot but the last thing this team needed was another skilled winger who is one dimensional.

Chevy did a good job trading from our organizational strength to fill a huge gaping hole. Now if we can’t extend PLD we need to do well on our next trade too.

I don't think we currently have any one dimensional wingers on the roster.

 

[KingBogo]

I don't think he'd re-sign.

Agreed. Not immediately anyways. When a player is on the brink of UFA status and is ready to hit the open market I always ask what would their motivation be to sign long term with a team sight unseen? There is only 2 answers I can think of. Chevy offers them a contract well above what their agent thinks they can get on the open market or it is a market that they player always wanted to play in for a specific reason. So if someone proposes a trade with the player coming signed which of the 2 above reasons is it? That is not saying after the season they don't sign if they like what they are part of and the offer is competitive. They just won't do it as a condition of walking in the door.

 

[Brominator]

Lovely stuff.

Expected rust - but not bad at all. Ehlers played his guts out with reduced aerobic capacity.

Bowness with 2600 games, not shabby.

Demelo and PLD with some nice saves and goals.

KFC blasts a nice goal and Hell Boy playing like a boss. JoMo with 3 assists.

I really am beginning to like this team.


SWEET

Congrats Bones! But when I see "2600 games," I instantly think of this:

 

[WPGChief]

If the Jets can be just "average" they can rely on #37 to easily get them in a divisional playoff spot. If they can be slightly above average (~51-52% xG which they have been since Nov even without Ehlers) that is good enough to contend for the divisional title and even #1 spot in the West with Helle in the net.

Hockey's a pretty streaky game, all things considered. Hellebuyck has been tremendous all season, but unfortunately we can't always expect that he'll save 1-1.5+ goals above expected every single game. When one part of the team's "game" dips, hopefully the other part of their game will carry the load in its stead (or ideally, have all cylinders firing at the same time when we get to playoffs).

As I've said, for the most part this year they've been "average", mostly because they've been able to keep their shot and xG differentials even against their opponents (or better!), even when injuries have caused their own offensive production to dip - and again, now getting better and getting healthier. But IMO, I'd like to see the Jets consistently generating offensive chances at around 2.8+ xGF/60, whereas they've mostly hovered around 2.4-2.6 at points this season. Though getting Ehlers back will certainly help in that regard, I still think they can do more than simply getting healthier, especially because you can't predict when another injury will happen.

Just get healthy and I think things will take care of themselves

Getting healthy will certainly help, but they're still an injury away from not having a "scorer" in their top 6, and I'm not necessarily a big fan of relying on Lowry to take ~50% of available 5v5 minutes against an opponent's top line(s), where even though they may be even in their shot, xG, and goal differentials, there's not much happening on the ice - that's just asking to hope that Hellebuyck is always performing at his best.

We've seen Bowness mostly keep Scheifele away an opponent's top line, and even seeing Dubois start to take portion of that matchup whenever the expectation is to be more 'physical' - IMO, that's because Dubois is the only guy in Bowness' top 6 that he trusts to consistently forecheck. If Jets go out and either get a 'sniper' for the 3rd line or a more balanced RH winger that is more responsible defensively (a better Appleton, for lack of better words) that can move up and down the 1st-3rd lines when needed, that'll help either of Scheifele or Dubois in the short-term immediate impact to be able to go against this competition, and long-term if there's an injury.

(I'm also beginning to get more and more worried about Pionk who has just not been good for the last 3-4 weeks and has been otherwise more average than he has been good this season, and it's starting to look more and more like the Canadian Division was the outlier season for him. But I'm not quite sure what to do there, because he does still have a bit of those flashes offensively, but is defensively horrid - and I think WPG is goingto be stuck with that contract.)

What the stats don't tell is the change in battle level, passion, commitment and team components this group has majorly improved upon.

I also think the metrics are dragged down by our injuries, illness and schedule. We won last night and I don't think any of our returnees impacted the game positively.

Id expect our team stats to improve over the back half of the season as these players get up to speed and our schedule stabilizes.

Stats without context or proper interpretation are not useful.

Not to mention my issues with the science and integrity of the stats themselves but I'm not going down that road again.

Harkins is a prime example. Someone said he had the second best cf%? on the team when he got sent down, but Bones didn't like him very much, he didn't get picked up, and another poster pointed out some granular stats about successful zone exits and turnovers.

It's a real cautionary tale to not just look at statistics when assessing a player or team.

If you read my post, you'd probably surmise that I largely feel the same way about the team actually playing with a purpose and passion (read: players like Scheifele actually backchecking and improving their defensive numbers, or all defencemen not named DeMelo and Morrissey where their xGA/60 RAPMs are much, much better than their 2019-21 seasons (except Pionk), where in seasons past these were questionable (and with hindsight it's pretty obvious to see why (cough, Maurice and Huddy, cough)), and that I too am hoping for (and expecting) improvement.

But hope is still not a plan: the offensive numbers at 5v5 aren't quite there just yet, and Jets have purposely given themselves the cap space to do more - and I really think they should, because as we've all seen in 2017-18 and the seasons following it, you never know how long a good thing is going to last. The Jets are good; I think they can be great.

Just to pick on your Harkins example for a second: yes, he does indeed currently have the second-best CF% right now over the whole season, but just looking at his last 5GP he's near the bottom of the team at 40%. He looked pretty good when he was originally recalled, but his performance has very obviously dipped recently - and lots of people were already asking questions as to how Harkins was having good overall results in the first place with the lack of everything else (in terms of his 'inputs').

Is it possible he was mostly just a passenger offensively early on, which was made to look even better because of great (but sheltered) defensive numbers during then, too? And then, what exactly was happening at the end of his time with Lowry and Barron where the goals dried up for them, but rose for their opponents? Was being waived actually fair or deserved, all things considered?

That's the unfortunate part with small samples within the season, especially at a game level (and why I only use it game-by-game to fill in the gaps of "what happened in today's game", and then trying to expand those samples as large as I can when trying to dig deeper, find trends, etc.) - and again, hockey being pretty streaky - that I'm not quite sure other than simply saying "he was great to start; then, he wasn't."

TL;DR - The team's bought in and so have the fans, and I want to be too, because the Jets are pretty good with outstanding goaltending and I hope they can be great (still with outstanding goaltending, of course).

 

[Stumbledore]

TL;DR - The team's bought in and so have the fans, and I want to be too, because the Jets are pretty good with outstanding goaltending and I hope they can be great (still with outstanding goaltending, of course).

Not too long and certainly worth reading.

 

[tbcwpg]

Agreed. Not immediately anyways. When a player is on the brink of UFA status and is ready to hit the open market I always ask what would their motivation be to sign long term with a team sight unseen? There is only 2 answers I can think of. Chevy offers them a contract well above what their agent thinks they can get on the open market or it is a market that they player always wanted to play in for a specific reason. So if someone proposes a trade with the player coming signed which of the 2 above reasons is it? That is not saying after the season they don't sign if they like what they are part of and the offer is competitive. They just won't do it as a condition of walking in the door.

We're definitely not option 2 so that only leaves the biggest offer, and his agent is likely to have some idea if he can negotiate with teams before a trade but I find that very unlikely given Vancouver's incentive is to have a bidding war and not limit their market.

 

[AlphaLackey]

Laine in a normal situation would have thrived here.
If PLD doesn’t sign here long term then IMO
TNSE blew an opportunity with a 2 OA pick bottom line.
There will be zero to show for it while both players end up elsewhere for several years likely.

With Laine turning out to be a complete paper tiger more and more by the day, I'm inclined to think we won that trade even if PLD doesn't sign long term.

 

[JustBeCool]

There was some intensity in this game that showed the jets are feeling confident and are ready to face anything that gets in their way. PLD in the crease = penalty lol. This was such a good game.

 

[RabidOne]

Sipowhack

Is that what happens when Sip comes up with a nickname for you?
Slow Gus has been Slipowhacked!

 

[GNP]

With Laine turning out to be a complete paper tiger more and more by the day, I'm inclined to think we won that trade even if PLD doesn't sign long term.

No question that Laine is a complete paper tiger, and the best thing that Chevy did was get rid of him, and aquire PLD, who is the opposite of Laine. Laine is a nice kid etc, but plays hockey with no intensity or passion. He also is always hurt, and out of the lineup, and I'm glad the Jets didn't pony up the big bucs $$ for him long term.

Where they should pony up the big bucs $$ is for PLD, and try signing him in around the $ 10 mil mark over 5 years, as I doubt he'd sign longer than that. In PLD you have a complete passionate 2 way player, who is very durable.

 

[DRW204]

I believe we will add a 4th line center who has the capability to move up if needed.

Agreed.
i liked eller as an option but doubt wsh will be sellers. barbshev had a strong year last season & is hovering around 0.5 ppg this year with a solid 5v5 scoring rate. plays with bite and physicality and can play both center and wing. Blues probably are sellers and i doubt he costs a lot. could slot in at 4c, and if the bench shortens id bump him to play him as a 3W.

 

[surixon]

Agreed. Not immediately anyways. When a player is on the brink of UFA status and is ready to hit the open market I always ask what would their motivation be to sign long term with a team sight unseen? There is only 2 answers I can think of. Chevy offers them a contract well above what their agent thinks they can get on the open market or it is a market that they player always wanted to play in for a specific reason. So if someone proposes a trade with the player coming signed which of the 2 above reasons is it? That is not saying after the season they don't sign if they like what they are part of and the offer is competitive. They just won't do it as a condition of walking in the door.

Not that I'm necessarily going to disagree on Dubois but why is it that more top players don't bolt to FA if the location is as important a consideration as you make it out to be. You can't tell me the majority of players who stick it out with the team's that drafted them are in the markets they'd most want to play in. I mean do you think Conner, Scheifele, Helle etc all view Winnipeg as the location they'd most rather be? None of these guys had to be overpaid to stay either.

I think most understand this is a job and if the org treats them well and has a chance to win they are fine. If the Jets have turned things around in the room and they look poised to get back to where they were in 18 then I can seem any players wanting to stick it out with us like you saw back then with a good many long term extensions.

I have no idea what Dubois will want to do but it looks like he's having fun out there and a lot of individual personal success as well as potential team success this post season. I think there is atleast a chance now that he'd entertain staying for a market value contract (I.e 9 plus million AAV).

 

[KingBogo]

Not that I'm necessarily going to disagree on Dubois but why is it that more top players don't bolt to FA if the location is as important a consideration as you make it out to be. You can't tell me the majority of players who stick it out with the team's that drafted them are in the markets they'd most want to play in. I mean do you think Conner, Scheifele, Helle etc all view Winnipeg as the location they'd most rather be? None of these guys had to be overpaid to stay either.

I think most understand this is a job and if the org treats them well and has a chance to win they are fine. If the Jets have turned things around in the room and they look poised to get back to where they were in 18 then I can seem any players wanting to stick it out with us like you saw back then with a good many long term extensions.

I have no idea what Dubois will want to do but it looks like he's having fun out there and a lot of individual personal success as well as potential team success this post season. I think there is atleast a chance now that he'd entertain staying for a market value contract (I.e 9 plus million AAV).

But this isn’t the point I made. I did acknowledge a player might like the situation and end up signing after the season if they get a fair offer. My point is no player does this sight unseen as part of the trade unless the offer is beyond what his agent thinks he will get in free agency or it is a market the player really wants to be in. It has never happened for us and I expect it never will.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If Chevy just let Dubois walk for absolutely nothing then i would agree but you would have to see what we got for Dubois before saying they blew the 2nd round pick. Even if Laine was still here i don't know how long that dude is going to play, he is hurt all the time.

IF Chevy can't extend PLD and IF he also fails to get a decent return then he has mishandled this thing somewhere. But he still has 2 chances to come out on top.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If everything breaks the way we need, we actually have the makings of a true contender. Morrissey taking the giant leap forward under Bones is really helping set the stage with our strength down the middle and a Vezina goalie in net.

The theory is that you need a true 1C, true 1D and a top 10 goalie, plus a decent supporting cast. We have all of that plus a second true 1C and I think our supporting cast of forwards is above requirements. That is starting to look like it includes the bottom 6, especially with Lowry scoring at a proper 3C rate. I'm not sure our D corps after Morrissey is quite up to the needed level but our goals against says it is.

There are no guarantees of how it will play out but the potential is definitely there.