Kudo Shinichi
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- Apr 20, 2012
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Player Discussion Jesperi Kotkaniemi - Part 19
- Thread starter Lshap
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I have maintained from day 1 that KK will be a 40-50 point player if everything goes well, with a possibility of a couple years of 50+ points (his peak). After a couple years of seeing him, it has only become more apparent that his ceiling is somewhere in that range. He will never be a 1C; he has no elite attributes or potential. That is extremely obvious at this point. He is what he is, and he was our team's pick at 3rd overall. I've made peace with that. He can still be a useful player. Unfortunately, I think he gets dealt this summer.
Yes I have a crystal ball, yes I have the winning lottery numbers. No you can't have them.
Yes I have a crystal ball, yes I have the winning lottery numbers. No you can't have them.
What would folks offer KK on a deal for each of the following terms, that has a decent chance of KK accepting?I'm sure Buffalo will pay him what he's worth
Here is my list:
1 year - $1,000,000 (not much choice for him)
2 years - $1,500,000 AAV 1 + 2
3 years - $2,000,000 AAV 1 + 2 + 3
4 years - $2,500,000 AAV 1 + 2 + 3 + 4
5 years - $3,000,000 AAV 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5
6 years - $3,333,333 AAV 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 5
7 years - $3,571,429 AAV 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 5 + 5
8 years - $3,750,000 AAV 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 5 + 5 + 5
If I were KK and wanted to bet on myself, I would be ok with a 5 or 6 year contract along these lines (with the UFA years at $5M salary) and even make the first two years 2-way, with say $750k in the AHL
Agalloch
EliteProspects
I expect him to sign for 2 years, so I don't see him earning that much... yet.
Between 1-2M is my guess.
I'd see Bergevin offering him something like they had given to Gallagher, a 6-year, 3.75M AAV.
Does KK accept? I would if I were him. Hell be only 27 in the first year of the contract after this one and able to sign a huge contract like Gallagher did this past offseason.
Only, TBH, Gallagher had already at least shown more than KK at that point, unless we count the playoff goals KK has shown he is capable of scoring.
22.5M should set up anyone, really, and take away any worries so he can concentrate on improving his game and progress as a hockey player.
I'd do the same with Suzuki next offseason and set the AAV based on his production this year.
It will likely be around 5.5M or 6M for a 6-year or 7-year deal, IMO.
Both players should be at least offered such deals as they can likely become good deals that enable Montreal to ice a better team down the line with more available Cap space.
dackelljuneaubulis02
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- Oct 13, 2012
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lol. This whole 'if everything goes well' stuff. No it would be if everything goes completely sideways and worse.
Do you understand who you're describing stats wise? Phil Danault.
Now am I saying he'll be 60-70 pts guy for sure? No. Am I even a bit worried he could bottom out as a 3rd line C? Sure. A little bit.
But for people to honestly think this kid has never had at any point the potential to put up more points than fricking Danault or that potential is never existed then you really just have to get real.
I just don't know why people want to be so certain about this kid who just turned 21 last month and also think that that's somehow some disingenuous excuse. Scheifele put up pretty much the same points in his D+3 that KK did in D+1. He didn't even crack 50 in his D+4. I've already made the Pacioretty and Eller comparables at the same age. Why is it so do or die with KK in his 21 year old season? It's just weird.
Yeah, basically Danault without the elite defensive game, and more of a goal-scorer, but similar point totals.
It's do or die for KK because of his lack of progress since his rookie year - there hasn't been any. He makes the same mistakes, and hasn't addressed any of his weaknesses.
The assessment on his potential is based on what we've seen in 3 years. He doesn't have any elite tools. He has an average shot, he isn't much of a playmaker, his hockey sense looks average at best at both ends of the ice, he's a relatively poor skater. Honestly, what are you seeing that looks elite to you? I guess he could maybe get really strong and play a physical game and develop his faceoff skill along with his defensive game if he really focused on that stuff and worked hard, but what do you think the chances of that are? He just doesn't have the tools to ever be a 1C, imo.
Gravity
Generational Poster
Expecting a low bridge contract for 2 years and in that 2nd year he really breaks out and earns his payday imo.
angusyoung
Back in the day, I was always horny!
I'm guessing you misunderstood,hey we all make mistakes. It was from April to October not 10 weak's.
Oh,no offense,can you get offended by anonymous internet discussions?
ChesterNimitz
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Harry Kakalovich
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Harry Kakalovich
Registered User
I thought JK had a really good start of the year and that he learned how to battle through really tight checking (and obstruction) during the Vegas series. The Habs schedule was brutal and it wore the entire team down, which became apparent after they had rest in their play in the playoffs.
If JK could progress from where he was at the first half of last season (which I think is where we have to look at his game, not the games at the end of that brutal 26 games in 41 nights stretch), I see the potential for a bump in his game. There were times I thought he was one of the Habs best forwards during the first 40 games or so.
If JK could progress from where he was at the first half of last season (which I think is where we have to look at his game, not the games at the end of that brutal 26 games in 41 nights stretch), I see the potential for a bump in his game. There were times I thought he was one of the Habs best forwards during the first 40 games or so.
CauZuki
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- Feb 19, 2008
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I clarified I meant forwards and I don't consider Pacioretty in the same category as young stars burning the league. He was quite productive that's for sure but I have a hard time equating him to young stars like Aho/Rantanen (just to name a few) but perhaps a tier right below.
Kotkaniemi, IMO, can only be better next season as he continues to grow into his body and gains more experience against his opponents. How much? That's the question.
As long as KK continues to improve, I'm okay with him turning the corner in a couple of more seasons.
Given the quality of top-9 wingers (all potentially top-6) that Montreal now has for the upcoming season -- Hoffman, Tofolli, Caufield, Gallagher, Anderson, Drouin -- Kotkaniemi will have quality wingers wherever he ends up playing in the lineup (no, he will not be our 4th line C
).
The question is how Montreal experts him to play.
If they land a stop-gap 2nd line C, somehow, KK will likely be asked to play a more physical, cycle game with wingers like Anderson and Gallagher. Does that prevent him from fully developing his skill set over the long term? Probably not, but it certainly would help him home his physical game and tight quarters game.
If they play KK with Drouin and Tofolli, for example, he will be required to dit out pucks, set up Tofolli for a shot or Drouin for a tic-tac-toe and probably to place himself as a secondaire shot option as well -- another way to play.
If KK were to play with Hoffman and Caufield, for example, he would need to be that set-up guy and net front presence as a power forward C -- yet another facet of his game to develop.
KK has a lot of work to do to become a dominant C, including Face-offs and puck-handling in tight spaces, plus improving his skating.
Du pain sur la planche, as they say in French.
As long as KK continues to improve, I'm okay with him turning the corner in a couple of more seasons.
Given the quality of top-9 wingers (all potentially top-6) that Montreal now has for the upcoming season -- Hoffman, Tofolli, Caufield, Gallagher, Anderson, Drouin -- Kotkaniemi will have quality wingers wherever he ends up playing in the lineup (no, he will not be our 4th line C
).The question is how Montreal experts him to play.
If they land a stop-gap 2nd line C, somehow, KK will likely be asked to play a more physical, cycle game with wingers like Anderson and Gallagher. Does that prevent him from fully developing his skill set over the long term? Probably not, but it certainly would help him home his physical game and tight quarters game.
If they play KK with Drouin and Tofolli, for example, he will be required to dit out pucks, set up Tofolli for a shot or Drouin for a tic-tac-toe and probably to place himself as a secondaire shot option as well -- another way to play.
If KK were to play with Hoffman and Caufield, for example, he would need to be that set-up guy and net front presence as a power forward C -- yet another facet of his game to develop.
KK has a lot of work to do to become a dominant C, including Face-offs and puck-handling in tight spaces, plus improving his skating.
Du pain sur la planche, as they say in French.
1909
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KevSkillz4
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With a KK more consistent, it's going to be the right pick. More consistent in his game, he is going to have the same impact of Suzuki and Caufield. No doubt you re-draft Suzuki or Caufield at #3 in 2018.
It took 2 and half year for Barkov to start producing in FLA, Im not saying KK is on the same level as Barkov but sometimes it takes more time for a young athlete to grow in the system. We all see the potential is there and he is a smart kid with a good hockey IQ, Im not worried. I think next year he gets 15g 25-30a and a differential near EVEN
dackelljuneaubulis02
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- Oct 13, 2012
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lol there's tons of room between what you're saying he'll be and a #1C. A pretty sizeable spectrum. You sure as hell don't need to be 'elite' in one area to produce more than Danault. Come on.
You're judging a kid who just isn't there yet. You look at most kids his age who haven't physically matured and yeah most of their attributes look pretty middling. Pacioretty at the same age had nothing but speed. Shown far less than KK did. Same trajectory. A really promising rookie year (not as good as KK's and Max was older) then seemingly regressed in his next season in a half to the point where people thought he was going to be a 3rd liner. NO ONE and I mean no one thought he'd be one of the better goal scorer's of his time.
ahhh….seems like some of us are playing Monday morning quarterback again……
KK is still A good pick, how he progresses from here on out is where it will matter
CristianoRonaldo
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bsl
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- Oct 9, 2009
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He's a kid from a very small town in Finland. I think his life was about playing hockey and having fun. With family all around.
Coming to Canada and adjusting to NHL play and living on his own has beeen tough for him I think.
Catanddogguitarrr
Registered User
No he's not. If you mean a defensive C, this is not the profile he was drafted for. He plays and he is supposely a #2 C. I don't see him as a shut down C, actually he is weak on his skates, he doesn't skate fast and he doesn't play more than 18 minutes a game.4M/6 years... Nothing to lose. He's already an adequate #3C.
To start with, it was a big mistake to bring him at the age of 18 yrs old. He should have been fully developped in Laval before coming here. With Danault out and no real replacement for his duty, now we are very weak at center and we have a problem now, even bigger problem back in the Atlantic division.
4M/6 years... Nothing to lose. He's already an adequate #3C.
4M for 6 years is a good gamble and a win-win for both parties, I think. Years 5 and 6 of that deal will be years where KK, if he doesn't reach expectations of a 2nd line C, can still be dealt at that Cap hit.
Better an apparently larger hit short term and a lower hit long term, in terms of progression, given the team's current makeup and overall youth.
Suzuki will likely get 5.5M, 6M long term next year, while Romanov's treatment will dépend on his progression this year.
The year after, Caufield will be up at bat and the numbers might look like Suzuki's numbers, depending how quickly he starts hacking up goals in this league.
We really need to consider money for that over the years and contracts like Drouin, Byron, Toffoli, etc., coming to term year after year will help that along as we wait for the Cap to start rising again.
Beyond that, there is moving Chiarot and, even, Allen, to free up cap space, unless something happens to Price and his monstruous Cap hit somehow Falls to the wayside sonner than expected.
Veteran scorers on reasonable 3 to 4 year terms as they reach 30 or come Closer to 30 is always a replenishable commodity.
Toffoli in, Hoffman in. Others will be available when they are on their way out...
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