Jaroslav Halak and Chad Johnson

[Quicklime]

I figured with various threads speculating on the potency of the forwards, or the amount of muscle it hopefully wouldn't tread on anything to chat about the improvement in goal.

Just for the sake of an in-thread comparison - the old:

Evgeni Nabokov: 40G- 15W - 14L - 8OT - 4 SO 2.74 - GAA .905 SV

Kevin Poulin: 28G - 11W - 16L - 1OT - 0 SO - 3.29 - GAA .891 SV

Anders Nilsson: 19G - 8W - 7L - 2OT - 0 SO - 3.11 - GAA - .896 SV

and the new:

Jaroslav Halak: 52G - 29G - 13L - 7OT - 5 SO - 2.25 GAA - .921 SV

Chad Johnson: 27G - 17W - 4L - 3OT - 2 SO - 2.10 GAA - .925 SV


Hard to judge since so much is so dependent on the play of the team as a whole, but looking at how Halak and Johnson add up to 46 wins and 10 OT losses for 106 points over 79 games, how many of these points will we not get? We can assume CJ's stats are going to be at least a little skewed playing behind the Bruins, though Halak seems to thrive on rough odds, and he'll have the defense to do it for here. Thoughts?

Consider that this is also in conjunction with the Metro Division, and that a point total in the mid-90's is the 'Safety Zone.'

Click to read more...

 

[seabass45]

I thought I saw something about how we stood to gain 8 points last year just by not having completely inept goaltending. Even if Halak and Johnson regress a notch or two, it's still a major upgrade.

 

[steveat]

I was thinking that about our improvement in goal too.

I think to make a general comparison we could look at the type of goals each goalie let in or saved.

Does the goalie do well under pressure? Can the goalie keep the team in the game? How many soft goals allowed? Can the goalie play through a screen? Yeah, these can be subjective...but we know a crap goal when we see one!

There's way too much data to work out how well they'd do with us.

 

[Quicklime]

I thought I saw something about how we stood to gain 8 points last year just by not having completely inept goaltending. Even if Halak and Johnson regress a notch or two, it's still a major upgrade.

Exactly - though for argument's sake, 8 points gets us to 87. I'd go as far as saying the team could get 8 more wins, but that takes the whole team into account. I don't know how to unravel the knot that adjusting 34-37-11 into 42-?-?, but so many of those 37 losses were games lost late that they could still get to OT 11 times with 42 wins and sit at 93 points - which would be Columbus' point total last season - when they made the Playoffs.

I was thinking that about our improvement in goal too.

I think to make a general comparison we could look at the type of goals each goalie let in or saved.

Does the goalie do well under pressure? Can the goalie keep the team in the game? How many soft goals allowed? Can the goalie play through a screen? Yeah, these can be subjective...but we know a crap goal when we see one!

There's way too much data to work out how well they'd do with us.

This, a thousand times over. This may just be a "hurry up and drop the puck already!!!"/fishing for hockey banter thread, but it's interesting to discuss.

 

[bigd]

With all the 1 goal losses last year I think better goaltending would have gotten us more than 8 extra wins. We were middle of the pack as far as shot against. You can't tell me that those were all A1 scoring chances.

 

[Seph]

I thought I saw something about how we stood to gain 8 points last year just by not having completely inept goaltending. Even if Halak and Johnson regress a notch or two, it's still a major upgrade.

The Islanders last year gave up 261 goals on 2,464 shots, which comes to an average sv% of 0.894, which is pretty godawful. That led us to being 28th in the league in goals against.

If that average had been 0.910 with the same number of shots, it would been 222 goals again, an improvement of 39 goals against, and good for 17th in league, right between Detroit and Dallas.

It's hard to predict the exact effect that would have on the standings, but here's an attempt to estimate it. 39 goals over 82games, means an average of 0.476 fewer goals allowed per game. The Islanders lost 13 games by one goal in regulation and 11 games were lost in OT.

Taking the extra goal average and multiplying it by those 13 games, gives us 6.2 games we likely would have prevented one extra goal, and that would have gone to OT instead being lost in regulation. If we take our OT/SO win percentage of 0.542 (13 out of 24) that means we likely would have won 3 and lost 3, giving us an extra 9 points.

Multiplying the extra goal average by the 11 games we lost in OT/SO gives 5.2 games we would have prevented an additional goal and that would have been won in regulation instead of being lost in OT, resulting in another 5 points.

This comes to a total of an extra 14 points in the standings, which would have tied with Columbus and been one point shy of Philly. So an argument can certainly be made we would have been in the mix for the playoffs with better goaltending.

 

[Bexlyspeed]

they need a Power Couple name, like Brangelina.

Chalak!

 

[Seph]

they need a Power Couple name, like Brangelina.

Chalak!

The obvious choice is Charro.

 

[seafoam]

I'm pretty pumped about this tandem.

I don't think they are going to regress much. Halak is going to go into the season as the disputed #1, has changed his workout routine, and is excited to hopefully be a big part of the Islanders' playoffs hopes. Plus, from what we've heard he thrives on a lot shots.

I wouldn't put it past him to establish himself as a legit #1 this year, play 60-65 games, and quiet the people saying he's an average guy who can't handle a big workload. He's at that age.

Regarding Johnson, the guys a gamer. Technically sound, and knows his role as a backup. We didn't see Khudobin's numbers go down in Carolina, so it will be interesting to see if Johnson's does on a similar caliber defense.

 

[StillAnIslesFan]

May I add to your evaluation that some teams the Isles would have beaten could have been teams above them in the standing, like the Flyers, which would result in the Isles being even higher in the standings.

I agree these two goalies give our boys a very good chance of making the playoffs this season, kinda like we were all hoping for last season, but this time for real!

 

[WangMustGo]

I think the biggest difference we will see is consistency. Nabby and Poulin couldn't take over a game and get them off of losing streak, instead Nabby would let in a weak goal at a crucial time, and the team would go on to lose 4,5,6 games in a row, that won't happen anymore. Those long November losing streaks will hopefully be a thing of the past.

 

[A Pointed Stick]

There should be a huge difference between losing AMac and gaining two dependable goaltenders. Add in getting Grabo and Kuli and the GA issue should heal some. I will say this though, eliminating those aspects as potential problems now shifts the focus on our defense. If the team still blows in the goals against dept then by process of elimination I would blame our defense, and the coaching staff.

 

[Seph]

May I add to your evaluation that some teams the Isles would have beaten could have been teams above them in the standing, like the Flyers, which would result in the Isles being even higher in the standings.

I agree these two goalies give our boys a very good chance of making the playoffs this season, kinda like we were all hoping for last season, but this time for real!

True, but that's pretty difficult to predict. I also forgot to factor in all the 2 goal games that were actually just 1 goal games where we allowed an empty netter, and that likely would've gone to OT had we allowed one fewer goal in those games and not had to pull our goalie at the end.

Like I said, it's difficult to predict accurately, but this gives us a crude idea of how much better we might have been.

 

[Quicklime]

The Islanders last year gave up 261 goals on 2,464 shots, which comes to an average sv% of 0.894, which is pretty godawful. That led us to being 28th in the league in goals against.

If that average had been 0.910 with the same number of shots, it would been 222 goals again, an improvement of 39 goals against, and good for 17th in league, right between Detroit and Dallas.

It's hard to predict the exact effect that would have on the standings, but here's an attempt to estimate it. 39 goals over 82games, means an average of 0.476 fewer goals allowed per game. The Islanders lost 13 games by one goal in regulation and 11 games were lost in OT.

Taking the extra goal average and multiplying it by those 13 games, gives us 6.2 games we likely would have prevented one extra goal, and that would have gone to OT instead being lost in regulation. If we take our OT/SO win percentage of 0.542 (13 out of 24) that means we likely would have won 3 and lost 3, giving us an extra 9 points.

Multiplying the extra goal average by the 11 games we lost in OT/SO gives 5.2 games we would have prevented an additional goal and that would have been won in regulation instead of being lost in OT, resulting in another 5 points.

This comes to a total of an extra 14 points in the standings, which would have tied with Columbus and been one point shy of Philly. So an argument can certainly be made we would have been in the mix for the playoffs with better goaltending.

This is EXACTLY the sort of analysis and argument to be made - the goaltending alone can massage an abysmal defense into the middle of the pack statistically, even without taking Johnson's inflated stats behind a juggernaut Boston blue line.

Beautifully - masterfully done, Seph. If you don't quote this post in a few of those threads in forum #60 for the doubters and haters, I will!!

PS: Charro is perfect.

 

[airbus220]

Not much has changed, still Snow at the helm. Nabokov isn't a bad goalie, he only was misused by Snow and not only Nabokov, Poulin too.

Isles will start the season with back-to-back games, so expect Snow to play Halak in both games, same as he did with Nabokov last season, till injury, nothing's changed and then Johnson has to play every game, only difference is, Johnson didn't need to play every game in BOS last season.

Still meathead Snow at the helm, he didn't learn for last season, don't expect that he learnt something for this season.

 

[seabass45]

Not much has changed, still Snow at the helm. Nabokov isn't a bad goalie, he only was misused by Snow and not only Nabokov, Poulin too.

Isles will start the season with back-to-back games, so expect Snow to play Halak in both games, same as he did with Nabokov last season, till injury, nothing's changed and then Johnson has to play every game, only difference is, Johnson didn't need to play every game in BOS last season.

Still meathead Snow at the helm, he didn't learn for last season, don't expect that he learnt something for this season.

Garth Snow is not the coach?

 

[airbus220]

Garth Snow is not the coach?

Isles don't have a real coach, Isles have a coaching committee. Capuano doesn't decide about goalies, so who do you think makes those decisions.

Fact is nothing has changed.

 

[seabass45]

Isles don't have a real coach, Isles have a coaching committee. Capuano doesn't decide about goalies, so who do you think makes those decisions.

Fact is nothing has changed.

Alright then!

 

[13th Floor]

Not much has changed, still Snow at the helm. Nabokov isn't a bad goalie, he only was misused by Snow and not only Nabokov, Poulin too.

Isles will start the season with back-to-back games, so expect Snow to play Halak in both games, same as he did with Nabokov last season, till injury, nothing's changed and then Johnson has to play every game, only difference is, Johnson didn't need to play every game in BOS last season.

Still meathead Snow at the helm, he didn't learn for last season, don't expect that he learnt something for this season.

Halak is 29. Nabokov is 40.

 

[airbus220]

Halak is 29. Nabokov is 40.

And Snow is an Neanderthal.

As if injuries can't happen at 29

 

[Seph]

This is EXACTLY the sort of analysis and argument to be made - the goaltending alone can massage an abysmal defense into the middle of the pack statistically, even without taking Johnson's inflated stats behind a juggernaut Boston blue line.

Beautifully - masterfully done, Seph. If you don't quote this post in a few of those threads in forum #60 for the doubters and haters, I will!!

PS: Charro is perfect.

Thanks! But I actually realized, it's pretty flawed because I didn't factor in EN goals at all.

So doing this again.

2464 total SA, 261 total GA, 12 ENGA.

This means goaltenders face 2452 shots against, allowed 249 goals and and made 2,203 saves, for a total average sv% of 0.898. Still dead last in the league in sv%.

Using the same .910 as a hypothetical worse case scenario (this would've put as at 24th worst in the league, between Detroit and Winnipeg).

2452(0.910)=2231.32 saves, or 220.68 goals allowed, an improvement of 28.32 goals over the season and 0.345 goals per game.

I don't know how many of the EN goals happened during one goal games, but let's just assume 3/4 of them did, which means we can add 9 games to the 13 one goal game losses.

(0.345)22 games lost by one goal that would have gone to OT = 7.590. 7.590(0.345)=4.114, meaning 8.228 more points from OT/SO win points and 3.476 more points from OT/SO losses. Comes to a total of 11.704 points.

(0.345)11 games lost in OT/SO that would've been regulation wins = 3.795

Total extra points = 15.499

15 extra points now puts us at 94 points, equal to the Flyers. And of course, this doesn't factor in possible wins against division/conference rivals, and it also ignores the loss of morale when goalies give up awful goals.

 

[13th Floor]

And Snow is an Neanderthal.

As if injuries can't happen at 29

Your ridiculously exaggerated statements about Snow, and your addition of him being a 'Neanderthal' in a comment where we were talking about goalies proves that your judgement is way too clouded to even have a legitimate and mature conversation about the matter.

 

[Quicklime]

Not much has changed, still Snow at the helm. Nabokov isn't a bad goalie, he only was misused by Snow and not only Nabokov, Poulin too.

Isles will start the season with back-to-back games, so expect Snow to play Halak in both games, same as he did with Nabokov last season, till injury, nothing's changed and then Johnson has to play every game, only difference is, Johnson didn't need to play every game in BOS last season.

Still meathead Snow at the helm, he didn't learn for last season, don't expect that he learnt something for this season.

I think it can be posited that you're just a "tiny" bit too busy grousing about Snow (whom in the eyes of even some detractors, took a step forward this postseason) to see the advantage the "Charro" tandem has over Nabby/Poulin.

Nabby was already far too old, but he was the most experience we had, and losing so many games late shows it. Miss the guy's attitude, but it's time to move on. Poulin and Nilsson, too young.

Halak and Johnson are 29 and 28, respectively - right around/entering prime. That particular porridge is 'just right.'

Subtract Snow from it, and it's obvious the team addressed one of it's biggest needs (goaltending - I have NO idea why you're still so despondent about the condition of the team if you read Seph's post above), while not overpaying for another (defense - it still needs help, but we have more options and depth this year, if anything), while allowing for competition to determine the third (#1LW, be it Nelson, Lee, or otherwise.)

Back on topic, the goaltending improved. What argument can you make that Charro < Nabokov/Poulin/Nilsson? I'm not trying to be mean, but I'll never turn down a good laugh, if you want to try.

Your ridiculously exaggerated statements about Snow, and your addition of him being a 'Neanderthal' in a comment where we were talking about goalies proves that your judgement is way too clouded to even have a legitimate and mature conversation about the matter.

Dude, you are SO much more succinct than I am.

 

[Seph]

Isles don't have a real coach, Isles have a coaching committee. Capuano doesn't decide about goalies, so who do you think makes those decisions.

Fact is nothing has changed.

Even so, the whole point of Snow choosing to bring in Johnson was so we'd have a backup he could trust to play regularly. This alleviates the need to play the starter in back to back games. That is what changed.

 

[seafoam]

Forget the goalie stats (not really, nice job Seph), how much more confidence will this young defense have playing behind a guy who they know can make a big stop?

I think that's huge for a defense, especially a young one. Don't tell me the guys didn't know in the back of their head that at any given shot, on any giving angle, Nabby/Poulin/Nilsson could let in a softie.