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Samus44

Enjoy the ride.
Aug 5, 2010
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I hear you, but what certainty do you have that nuge does not turn into turris in a year or two?

nuge is 27, a 7 year contract takes him to 34

his level of play has been diminishing

he would be the oilers Johanson

20-21 .69 ppg (It's 16 games. Relax.)
19-20 .94 ppg (No help for half the year, elite for the next half with help. 1st PP is now generational)
18-19 .84 ppg (Still little help till a short stint at LW. 1st PP is still excellent)
17-18 .77 ppg (Given little help Nuge starts to do more on his own. Back on first 1st PP, PP suddenly becomes lethal again)
16-17 .52 ppg (Made Playoffs Nuge played 3rd toughest minutes in league. 2nd PP.)
15-16 .62 ppg (McDavid rookie season. From scoring C to tough minutes C, 2nd PP)
14-15 .74 ppg (Team MVP. 2nd in PPG -.03 from Eberle and +.02 from Hall)

Since his ELC his improvement has been quite evident. He made a colossal adjustment in his game since his usage changed so much with McDavid being drafted and has since developed into a reliable two way player who's PPG has actually progressed every year since they made the playoffs with him in a tough minutes checking role. It's odd that his production and defensive ability can improve year on year by all metrics yet you can somehow come to the conclusion he isn't improving. Is it really rational to value 16 games in a compressed preseason-less year more than the last 3 seasons of clear an obvious improvement, or are you just making stuff up to fit your narrative? He's got A 5.71 sh% compared to 11%ish over the past 3 years and an Individual Point Percentage of 30% vs his last 3 year average of 70%. He's snake bit and he's adapting his game to best suit McDavid and not himself as the excellent team player he is. McDavid is having his best defensive performance ever and it's in no small part to Nuge. The Oilers are winning the game against some outstanding competition when him and McDavid are on the ice. Nuge will come around, he's not superhuman like McDrai he's going to have stretches of mediocre production like 98% of the guys in the league do. His shot is way too good to be at 5-6% all year and his shooting percentage will likely double.
 
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bellagiobob

Registered User
Jul 27, 2006
22,902
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What is your projected list? Just curious to see if it matches the one I have.

Lots of balls in the air on this one. Depends on what happens contract wise with RNH, and maybe even Barrie if he has a great season. Lagesson vs Jones will be interesting. Klef is also a big wildcard. If they sign RNH before the summer, then we need to revisit the 7/3 split, as don't want to lose Puljujarvi, but the seven forwards is overkill, as the last two spots are somewhat a filler for us. Would be ideal to sign RNH after the expansion draft, if both sides can agree on that. Then you go the 8 player route. McDavid, Drai, Yamo, Puljujarvi, Nurse, Bear,and two of Barrie, Jones, Klef and Lagesson, depending on how things shake out.
 
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5 Mins 4 Ftg

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Apr 3, 2016
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What is your projected list? Just curious to see if it matches the one I have.

If it’s 4 and 4

McDavid
Draisaitl
PJ
Honey Badger

Offer Nuge whatever they will offer but tell him the deal can’t be signed until after the expansion draft. If he signs with someone else you move on.

Defense gets complicated because of the injury to Klefbom and if the league rules his injury is potentially career ending, and if they resign Barrie. Assuming Klefbom’s injury is debilitating then I think the team resigns Barrie so he doesn’t hit UFA status. If Klefbom returns then you protect Klefbom.

Nurse
Bear
Barrie or Klefbom
Lagesson

Try to move Jones for an asset before the expansion draft.

If they decide losing Nuge is too big a price and resign him then they have to go 7 and 3 and it gets more complicated on who to protect at D. Nurse and Bear for sure. Depends what the league says on Klefbom and if Klefbom actually can physically play at a high level.

Either way we lose one of Klefbom if left unprotected and Seattle takes a chance on him, Jones or Lagesson.

Jones to me is the best possible option to “lose” pending Klefboms health status.

Whats yours?
 

Stoneman89

Registered User
Feb 8, 2008
27,597
22,273
20-21 .69 (It's 16 games. Relax.)
19-20 .94 (No help for half the year, elite for the next half with help. 1st PP is now generational)
18-19 .84 (Still little help till a short stint at LW. 1st PP is still excellent)
17-18 .77 (Given little help Nuge starts to do more on his own. Back on first 1st PP, PP suddenly becomes lethal again)
16-17 .52 (Made Playoffs Nuge played 3rd toughest minutes in league. 2nd PP.)
15-16 .62 (McDavid rookie season. From scoring C to tough minutes C, 2nd PP)
14-15 .74 (Team MVP. 2nd in PPG -.03 from Eberle and +.02 from Hall)

Since his ELC his improvement has been quite evident. He made a colossal adjustment in his game since his usage changed so much with McDavid being drafted and has since developed into a reliable two way player who's PPG has actually progressed every year since they made the playoffs with him in a tough minutes checking role. It's odd that his production and defensive ability can improve year on year by all metrics yet you can somehow come to the conclusion he isn't improving. Is it really rational to value 16 games in a compressed preseason-less year more than the last 3 seasons of clear an obvious improvement, or are you just making stuff up to fit your narrative? He's got A 5.71 sh% compared to 11%ish over the past 3 years and an Individual Point Percentage of 30% vs his last 3 year average of 70%. He's snake bit and he's adapting his game to best suit McDavid and not himself as the excellent team player he is. McDavid is having his best defensive performance ever and it's in no small part to Nuge. The Oilers are winning the game against some outstanding competition when him and McDavid are on the ice. Nuge will come around, he's not superhuman like McDrai he's going to have stretches of mediocre production like 98% of the guys in the league do. His shot is way too good to be at 5-6% all year and his shooting percentage will likely double.


Last year, if I recall correctly, Nuge struggled 5 on 5 in the first half of the year. Then, along came Yams to the team, and when placed together with Draisaitl, they took the league by storm. And then.......nothing as the season was cancelled and the playins happened and then this season. This coach is so obsessed with trying to make chemistry happen between Draisaitl and Kahun (and I do like Kahun), but I think it's more than time to change it up a bit. Production has dried right up on that line (not that it was ever on fire), and other than the odd McDavid end to end rush and goal, not a lot happening on that line either. I see no harm in them changing it up for a game or two and see what happens. If everyone continues to play hard and mind their new found defensive mode, there shouldn't be an issue, and the worst that could happen, is that the production stays the same.
 

MoontoScott

Registered User
Jun 2, 2012
8,104
9,260
If it’s 4 and 4

McDavid
Draisaitl
PJ
Honey Badger

Offer Nuge whatever they will offer but tell him the deal can’t be signed until after the expansion draft. If he signs with someone else you move on.

Defense gets complicated because of the injury to Klefbom and if the league rules his injury is potentially career ending, and if they resign Barrie. Assuming Klefbom’s injury is debilitating then I think the team resigns Barrie so he doesn’t hit UFA status. If Klefbom returns then you protect Klefbom.

Nurse
Bear
Barrie or Klefbom
Lagesson

Try to move Jones for an asset before the expansion draft.

If they decide losing Nuge is too big a price and resign him then they have to go 7 and 3 and it gets more complicated on who to protect at D. Nurse and Bear for sure. Depends what the league says on Klefbom and if Klefbom actually can physically play at a high level.

Either way we lose one of Klefbom if left unprotected and Seattle takes a chance on him, Jones or Lagesson.

Jones to me is the best possible option to “lose” pending Klefboms health status.

Whats yours?

Well, the exact same list but I don't think Klef will play again (nothing against the guy in anyway) and if I had to choose between Bear and Lagesson in a 7-3 formula it would be a tough one. I like Lagesson's game because the Oilers have been looking for shut down/physical guys for the last decade. Obviously if Barrie isn't signed then its a much easier decision, you keep both Bear and Lagesson along with Nurse (of course) in the 7-3 formula.

All 1st and 2nd year players are exempt but I wonder how that is defined? If Benson played part of the season in Edmonton and part in Bakersfield for 2 years then is he still exempt? How many games have to played for the "big team" during the course of the year before you are considered to have played in the NHL for that season?
 
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Samus44

Enjoy the ride.
Aug 5, 2010
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Last year, if I recall correctly, Nuge struggled 5 on 5 in the first half of the year. Then, along came Yams to the team, and when placed together with Draisaitl, they took the league by storm. And then.......nothing as the season was cancelled and the playins happened and then this season. This coach is so obsessed with trying to make chemistry happen between Draisaitl and Kahun (and I do like Kahun), but I think it's more than time to change it up a bit. Production has dried right up on that line (not that it was ever on fire), and other than the odd McDavid end to end rush and goal, not a lot happening on that line either. I see no harm in them changing it up for a game or two and see what happens. If everyone continues to play hard and mind their new found defensive mode, there shouldn't be an issue, and the worst that could happen, is that the production stays the same.


I don't disagree that they could stand to shake it up but I don't think it's essential either. I think they'll get some better luck at evens as the season goes. If they do shake it up I'd personally like to see Yamamoto and Puljujarvi swap. I like Draisaitl and Kahun together but I find that Kahun and Yamamoto are too similar and both tend to play with Draisaitl as opposed to as a trio. I think this is partially a size issue. I think Nuge and Yamamoto have unreal chemistry together and could be excellent with McDavid too, I also think Puljujarvi would give the Drai line a better threat on the rush and attacking the lane. He's a good forechecker like Yamo too. That's my take on the top 6. I do think Kahun and McDavid would likely pair well and I'd even argue Kahun could do much of what Nuge does as a smart natural center himself, although I'd expect some drop off defensively. I'll say this though, if they're winning I'm happy even if I think they could be getting a bit more out of what they got.

As for Nuge it's important to consider is he was playing with shitty linemates before the DRY line. Nuge's struggles don't look sustainable by any metric I've yet to see and by eye he's getting plenty of chances and doing the right things. The DRY line was broke up because McDavid was struggling without decent help himself, especially defensively. It's not easy going it alone. Nuge struggles 5v5 at times for production but generally still wins his minutes of the game thanks to his defensive ability against top players. He can be better but that's how all players are and if this is his valley, as the last 3 seasons indicate it is, then that's a pretty acceptable level of slumping. To his criticism it may also be fair to suggest Nuge is a bit of a slow starter. Nuge has settled the McDavid line down defensively and the numbers suggest that line has been a bit unlucky offensively. I watch the games and see an all around player with tremendous hands, feet, and a head for the game who's getting plenty of chances so I'm not worried. It's kind of the same thing with Kahun tbh, I think he's a good player who's deserved a bit more production than what he's got.

Also IMO it's still really early with no preseason and personally I basically wrote off the first 6 games as despite the NHL's insistence they weren't preseason games they sure as f*** looked like them to me. Preseason is a thing for a reason and the NHL can put lipstick on a pig all they want but it won't fool me. 10 real games in and I see a good team emerging and the top 6 is the biggest reason why even if I agree with the consensus that there should be more there. Let's just hope the bottom 6 and the goaltending continue to be as improved as they look.
 

Stoneman89

Registered User
Feb 8, 2008
27,597
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I don't disagree that they could stand to shake it up but I don't think it's essential either. I think they'll get some better luck at evens as the season goes. If they do shake it up I'd personally like to see Yamamoto and Puljujarvi swap. I like Draisaitl and Kahun together but I find that Kahun and Yamamoto are too similar and both tend to play with Draisaitl as opposed to as a trio. I think this is partially a size issue. I think Nuge and Yamamoto have unreal chemistry together and could be excellent with McDavid too, I also think Puljujarvi would give the Drai line a better threat on the rush and attacking the lane. He's a good forechecker like Yamo too. That's my take on the top 6. I do think Kahun and McDavid would likely pair well and I'd even argue Kahun could do much of what Nuge does as a smart natural center himself, although I'd expect some drop off defensively. I'll say this though, if they're winning I'm happy even if I think they could be getting a bit more out of what they got.

As for Nuge it's important to consider is he was playing with shitty linemates before the DRY line. Nuge's struggles don't look sustainable by any metric I've yet to see and by eye he's getting plenty of chances and doing the right things. The DRY line was broke up because McDavid was struggling without decent help himself, especially defensively. It's not easy going it alone. Nuge struggles 5v5 at times for production but generally still wins his minutes of the game thanks to his defensive ability against top players. He can be better but that's how all players are and if this is his valley, as the last 3 seasons indicate it is, then that's a pretty acceptable level of slumping. To his criticism it may also be fair to suggest Nuge is a bit of a slow starter. Nuge has settled the McDavid line down defensively and the numbers suggest that line has been a bit unlucky offensively. I watch the games and see an all around player with tremendous hands, feet, and a head for the game who's getting plenty of chances so I'm not worried. It's kind of the same thing with Kahun tbh, I think he's a good player who's deserved a bit more production than what he's got.

Also IMO it's still really early with no preseason and personally I basically wrote off the first 6 games as despite the NHL's insistence they weren't preseason games they sure as f*** looked like them to me. Preseason is a thing for a reason and the NHL can put lipstick on a pig all they want but it won't fool me. 10 real games in and I see a good team emerging and the top 6 is the biggest reason why even if I agree with the consensus that there should be more there. Let's just hope the bottom 6 and the goaltending continue to be as improved as they look.


I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. I think most of their success the last while should be attributed to much improved goaltending, #1, and then to much improved bottom six play (Khaira in particular), and contributions from the defence. McDavid and Draisaitl's line are basically playing even, but when you have that much talent, you need to come out on the plus most nights for this current success to be sustainable. I'm all for giving guys rope, but let's not forget - Kahun and Nuge are playing with the top 2 players on the planet, arguably. At some point, that rope starts to get shorter.
 
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Behind Enemy Lines

Registered User
Feb 19, 2003
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Vancouver
20-21 .69 (It's 16 games. Relax.)
19-20 .94 (No help for half the year, elite for the next half with help. 1st PP is now generational)
18-19 .84 (Still little help till a short stint at LW. 1st PP is still excellent)
17-18 .77 (Given little help Nuge starts to do more on his own. Back on first 1st PP, PP suddenly becomes lethal again)
16-17 .52 (Made Playoffs Nuge played 3rd toughest minutes in league. 2nd PP.)
15-16 .62 (McDavid rookie season. From scoring C to tough minutes C, 2nd PP)
14-15 .74 (Team MVP. 2nd in PPG -.03 from Eberle and +.02 from Hall)

Since his ELC his improvement has been quite evident. He made a colossal adjustment in his game since his usage changed so much with McDavid being drafted and has since developed into a reliable two way player who's PPG has actually progressed every year since they made the playoffs with him in a tough minutes checking role. It's odd that his production and defensive ability can improve year on year by all metrics yet you can somehow come to the conclusion he isn't improving. Is it really rational to value 16 games in a compressed preseason-less year more than the last 3 seasons of clear an obvious improvement, or are you just making stuff up to fit your narrative? He's got A 5.71 sh% compared to 11%ish over the past 3 years and an Individual Point Percentage of 30% vs his last 3 year average of 70%. He's snake bit and he's adapting his game to best suit McDavid and not himself as the excellent team player he is. McDavid is having his best defensive performance ever and it's in no small part to Nuge. The Oilers are winning the game against some outstanding competition when him and McDavid are on the ice. Nuge will come around, he's not superhuman like McDrai he's going to have stretches of mediocre production like 98% of the guys in the league do. His shot is way too good to be at 5-6% all year and his shooting percentage will likely double.

Really good posts about Nugent Hopkins and his historical numbers. Thank you!

Easy to get myopic on this player when he hits a rough patch like this but I'd bet the puck luck changes. I'll add a bit of colour to your numbers remembering when a pop gun bad Oilers team ran out Nugent Hopkins against a beastly West Coast elephant guns of big, skilled and veteran teams that included best on best against the likes of Kopitar, Getlaf, Thorton, Sedin and top pairing defenders. The Nuge was thrown into the deep end early and tread water reasonably well with minimal support. He survived without complaint. Fast forward to eptituding into two generational talents, now finally split to create a lethal two headed attack, and Nugent Hopkins without fuss has slid into wing running mate who can think, complement and defend with either McDavid or Draisaitl. Having a quality smart wing/centre with the versatility to move around the line-up and over time shift into a versatile bottom six role, if needed late in career years is a strong Swiss Army Knife utility imo. Can't overpay him but also can't really afford to lose a strong complementing core piece either.
 
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5 Mins 4 Ftg

Life is better with no expectations.
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Edmonton
Well, the exact same list but I don't think Klef will play again (nothing against the guy in anyway) and if I had to choose between Bear and Lagesson in a 7-3 formula it would be a tough one. I like Lagesson's game because the Oilers have been looking for shut down/physical guys for the last decade. Obviously if Barrie isn't signed then its a much easier decision, you keep both Bear and Lagesson along with Nurse (of course) in the 7-3 formula.

All 1st and 2nd year players are exempt but I wonder how that is defined? If Benson played part of the season in Edmonton and part in Bakersfield for 2 years then is he still exempt? How many games have to played for the "big team" during the course of the year before you are considered to have played in the NHL for that season?

I think it’s based on the year when you were contracted with the team? Honestly I don’t know how that works, I just go by the list on Cap Friendly to be honest lol.
 

bellagiobob

Registered User
Jul 27, 2006
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54,418
Well, the exact same list but I don't think Klef will play again (nothing against the guy in anyway) and if I had to choose between Bear and Lagesson in a 7-3 formula it would be a tough one. I like Lagesson's game because the Oilers have been looking for shut down/physical guys for the last decade. Obviously if Barrie isn't signed then its a much easier decision, you keep both Bear and Lagesson along with Nurse (of course) in the 7-3 formula.

All 1st and 2nd year players are exempt but I wonder how that is defined? If Benson play
ed part of the season in Edmonton and part in Bakersfield for 2 years then is he still exempt? How many games have to played for the "big team" during the course of the year before you are considered to have played in the NHL for that season?

First & Second Year Pros

“All players who have accrued two or less professional seasons at the end of the 2020-21 season, as well as all unsigned draft choices appearing on the teams reserve list, will be exempt from the upcoming expansion draft.”

I think an accrued season is 10 or more pro games in that season.
 
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MoontoScott

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Jun 2, 2012
8,104
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First & Second Year Pros

“All players who have accrued two or less professional seasons at the end of the 2020-21 season, as well as all unsigned draft choices appearing on the teams reserve list, will be exempt from the upcoming expansion draft.”

I think an accrued season is 10 or more pro games in that season.

But the AHL would be considered a professional league so a guy like Benson would be eligible to be selected? Not to say he would be protected but he would fit the definition of an eligible player?
 

MessierII

Registered User
Aug 10, 2011
27,910
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But the AHL would be considered a professional league so a guy like Benson would be eligible to be selected? Not to say he would be protected but he would fit the definition of an eligible player?
Yeah benson is eligible. A guy like Bouchard who was an AHL rookie last year is exempt.
 

voxel

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Feb 14, 2007
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Seattle Expansion Draft Simulator - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

We extended Russell because he's the only D we will expose. I'd just protect Nurse, Bear, Lagesson and then resign Barrie later.

upload_2021-2-14_21-44-5.png
 

Behind Enemy Lines

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Feb 19, 2003
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Vancouver
I don't disagree that they could stand to shake it up but I don't think it's essential either. I think they'll get some better luck at evens as the season goes. If they do shake it up I'd personally like to see Yamamoto and Puljujarvi swap. I like Draisaitl and Kahun together but I find that Kahun and Yamamoto are too similar and both tend to play with Draisaitl as opposed to as a trio. I think this is partially a size issue. I think Nuge and Yamamoto have unreal chemistry together and could be excellent with McDavid too, I also think Puljujarvi would give the Drai line a better threat on the rush and attacking the lane. He's a good forechecker like Yamo too. That's my take on the top 6. I do think Kahun and McDavid would likely pair well and I'd even argue Kahun could do much of what Nuge does as a smart natural center himself, although I'd expect some drop off defensively. I'll say this though, if they're winning I'm happy even if I think they could be getting a bit more out of what they got.

As for Nuge it's important to consider is he was playing with shitty linemates before the DRY line. Nuge's struggles don't look sustainable by any metric I've yet to see and by eye he's getting plenty of chances and doing the right things. The DRY line was broke up because McDavid was struggling without decent help himself, especially defensively. It's not easy going it alone. Nuge struggles 5v5 at times for production but generally still wins his minutes of the game thanks to his defensive ability against top players. He can be better but that's how all players are and if this is his valley, as the last 3 seasons indicate it is, then that's a pretty acceptable level of slumping. To his criticism it may also be fair to suggest Nuge is a bit of a slow starter. Nuge has settled the McDavid line down defensively and the numbers suggest that line has been a bit unlucky offensively. I watch the games and see an all around player with tremendous hands, feet, and a head for the game who's getting plenty of chances so I'm not worried. It's kind of the same thing with Kahun tbh, I think he's a good player who's deserved a bit more production than what he's got.

Also IMO it's still really early with no preseason and personally I basically wrote off the first 6 games as despite the NHL's insistence they weren't preseason games they sure as f*** looked like them to me. Preseason is a thing for a reason and the NHL can put lipstick on a pig all they want but it won't fool me. 10 real games in and I see a good team emerging and the top 6 is the biggest reason why even if I agree with the consensus that there should be more there. Let's just hope the bottom 6 and the goaltending continue to be as improved as they look.

Interesting post. What makes me curious about your suggestion of switching up Puljujarvi and Yamamoto is that Pulju is a volume shooter not afraid to fire the pill. Looking at the Oil shot totals Draisaitl is at 44 (fourth on the team) while Kahun (25) and Yamamoto (21) are substantively off those number (and 6 goals between them). Draisaitl could maybe use another running mate to dish to who has more of a shooter mentality and with a guy whose more of a threat to shoot likely also gets better looks with defenses maybe cheating a bit less on him. Draisaitl is exceptional at using his line mates while Connor is often more individualistic driving hard to the net where a guy like Yamamoto could complement with forecheck, net crashing etc.

After a bumpy start where this team looked disorganized pretty much in all facets, I think Tippett is looking for stability within the roster (versus some perception as 'stubborn' to change), so I think the current top six likely stay as they are. Not sure I entirely agree but right now stringing wins together is highest priority.
 

fireantz

Registered User
Mar 15, 2007
709
572
Klefbom was a shell of himself when he left. Surgical results are a major long shot and two years without hockey is not a positive on his resume. So tell me why Seattle would take that gamble. They will take one of Lagesson or Jones. We will protect the one that earns it by his play this season. Jury is out and we can cover the bet with Broberg and Samorukov. Let the season play out and wait for someone to answer the opportunity.
 

MoontoScott

Registered User
Jun 2, 2012
8,104
9,260
Klefbom was a shell of himself when he left. Surgical results are a major long shot and two years without hockey is not a positive on his resume. So tell me why Seattle would take that gamble. They will take one of Lagesson or Jones. We will protect the one that earns it by his play this season. Jury is out and we can cover the bet with Broberg and Samorukov. Let the season play out and wait for someone to answer the opportunity.

Agreed- Seattle doesn't want to gamble on a guy like Klefbom when the odds of his returning are suspect. They'll go for Jones if the Oilers don't deal him away before the draft.
 
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yukoner88

Registered User
Dec 16, 2009
20,201
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Dawson City, YT
Speaking of the Preds, I see Josi listed as 8 years remaining at a cap hit of 9M per year and he is already 30 years of age. Is this a misprint?? If not then why are these GM's bent on economic hell?

When you are in business you never know what next year will bring never mind this kind of time frame.

They simply assumed the salary cap would increase incrementally every year to no end, decreasing the impact of such a large contact.

You know what the say when you assume
 

SwedishFire

Registered User
Mar 3, 2011
5,332
1,863
Oilers will lose Archibald, Haas or C.Jones in an expansion draft.
Maybe Adam Larsson if they sign him in the sense to be exposed and taken,,,
 

Hynh

Registered User
Jun 19, 2012
6,170
5,345
Klefbom was a shell of himself when he left. Surgical results are a major long shot and two years without hockey is not a positive on his resume. So tell me why Seattle would take that gamble. They will take one of Lagesson or Jones. We will protect the one that earns it by his play this season. Jury is out and we can cover the bet with Broberg and Samorukov. Let the season play out and wait for someone to answer the opportunity.
McDavid
Draisaitl
Yamamoto
Puljujarvi
Nurse
Bear
Jones
Lagesson
 

Tyrolean

Registered User
Feb 1, 2004
9,625
724
They can draft Jones without Neal.

If the Oilers are protecting 4 D and 4F, as it stands today Jones won’t be one of the protected D.
Trade Jones for a pick or forward and go 7-3 with Nurse, Bear and Leggeson on defence, McD Drai, Yams, Arch, Haas, Poolparty and traded pick are the forwards protected. Do not protect any UFA's like Nuge, Larsson or Barrie. Seattle will not pick a UFA without knowing he will sign with them.
 
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