Another sleeper I've been intrigued by is Dmitri Ovchinnikov.
Big year in the MHL last year with 24g and 55p in 54 games and has put up 3g and 7p in 3 games this year and has been bumped up to the KHL I believe.
@StevenToddIves not sure if I've seen you comment on him yet, what're your thoughts?
LW/C Dmitri Ovchinnikov, Novosibirsk MHL
Ovchinnikov is actually a very good comparable to one of my favorite sleepers, Belarussian LW Evgeni Oksentyuk. They are both extremely skilled but very small LWs with good but not great skating. In fact, I would rate Ovchinnikov's skating as slightly better, and Ovchinnikov is about a year and a half younger -- yet I ranked Oksentyuk #58 overall while Ovchinnikov was left off my top 100 rankings altogether (I'd probably rank Ovchinnikov in the #110-#115 range). Why?
As these players are similarly talented, similarly sized and play the same position it's a very interesting question. But before getting into the reasons people are skeptical of Ovchinnikov, lets' talk about what makes him so good. He is a dual threat winger with the versatility to play center, although his offensive gains in such a switch are tempered by defensive shortcomings, so that his future is likely on the wing. But his offensive skill-set is also pleasingly versatile -- he can do it all with the puck on his stick. Ovchinnikov's combination of hands, anticipation and lightning-quick recognition of what the defense is giving him makes him almost surgical in his ability to pick apart opposition which plays him too soft. This is where the dual-threat ability makes him more effective -- he's very unpredictable about when he will pass or shoot, and he is clearly a plus talent in both tools. Ovchinnikov is just a weapon out there.
These are all qualities shared by Oksentyuk, and why they're both on the NHL Draft radar. The difference -- and where I rank Oksentyuk higher -- come down to 200-foot awareness, general hockey IQ and compete level. First off, I'd like to stress that none of these are necessarily
weaknesses for Ovchinnikov, they're just in the "pretty good" range while they are all incredible strengths for Oksentyuk. Both of these players are so creative with the puck that they will occasionally send a bad turnover to the opposition when trying to do too much. This is not a red flag -- many young offensive talents are guilty of this and it's something which diminishes naturally with coaching and development. The difference is that Oksentyuk knows to play a bit more conservative in close & late situations, while Ovchinnikov is always hoping for the flashy highlight play, and once a mistake is made Oksentyuk is a fierce back checker while Ovchinnikov is a far lesser player when his team does not possess the puck.
Oksentyuk has a motor which never stops -- he's a whirling dervish out there. Ovchinnikov likes to dissolve and reappear in the soft areas where he can create scoring opportunities. While this is the nature of his game and I would not try to temper it too much, Oksentyuk's motor and 2-way effort give him the opportunity to make the NHL in a bottom-6 role if he never develops into a top scorer. For Ovchinnikov, it's NHL top-6 or bust. It's very difficult for a small forward lacking dazzling skating to survive against NHL defensemen, so you like a kid who offers a bit more line-up versatility.
But again, Ovchinnikov certainly has the requisite skill to turn your 4th-round pick into a future NHL scorer, so in that sense he's a very intriguing mid-round draft candidate. And again, while Ovchinnikov lacks the high-end IQ and compete of an Oksentyuk, he is not bad in either respect. I'll offer another comparison with another similarly talented small winger in Zion Nybeck.
I would rank Nybeck's combination of hands/creativity/vision maybe a tick above Ovchinnikov and Oksentyuk, though I would rank his skating as a notch behind. Nybeck is just extraordinarily talented with the puck -- I'd go so far to say he has first-round skills. But the reason I rank him out of my top 100 (and he's far, far below that) is that his compete level is negligible at best, and he might be as soft as any forward in the 2020 draft. He'd rather gift-wrap the puck than take a hit, and turnovers are not followed by any effort on the back check This is why I would rank the similarly but slightly-lesser skilled Ovchinnikov above him.
Again, it's extremely difficult to make the NHL when you're an undersized, offensive winger without elite skating. So, you need every other tool at full-throttle in order to make it. While Ovchinnikov is certainly a player who has a a chance of becoming an impact NHL offensive player, there is certainly risk there, too. But still, his potential makes him a very nice pick in the mid to late rounds.