Speculation: IV. 2014 Stars Offseason Thread: Declaration of Free Agency

[M88K]

Well to be fair to Goligoski, his worse play came in the beginning of the season when he was paired with the crap that is Gonchar, That's also when he ate his HS. Once he got paired with somebody else his play picked back up.
They were like -8 and -9 (far and away worst on team at that time) The minute they gave him someone other than Gonchar his overall play improved, by the end of the season he was really good.
Not to say Goligoski isn't at fault for any of his early season play, but once he got away from Gonchar and got his confidence back up, he was pretty good.
Also the team utilized him in some games for 28-30 minutes(especially in the stretch).

The defense will be better because of Spezza and Hemsky though. Not that either are "dynamite" in the defensive zone, But a second line that is speedy, and able to actually maintain offensive zone possession is going to cut down on the amount of time we spend in the defensive zone, also getting to puck to players of their caliber so they can move it into the offensive zone, instead of the "try to clear the zone and hope it goes far enough for a line change" method that every line but Seguin's basically used.

Also defensive is going to improve if they just scratch Gonchar. That'd be a huge improvement.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

As far as the defense moves or non moves, it may be he is trying to save face just in case he can't make a deal, and it may be that there is just no reasonable deal to make and he feels our best way forward is with the young guys.

They have warts, and will be inconsistent, but so would a Del Zotto or other reasonably aged guy. Even Dion P from the Leafs doesn't appear to be a real No. 1 in the Pronger mode. Just not good enough to risk trading away even more youth assets.

It appears Nil is willing to trade on first tier and several second tier assets to get what he wants, but no more. He did manage to get the best player by far in his two major trades. No doubt we need more great players. I suspect he figures we are better off with the young average to good players we have rather than giving up two of those for one older decent player.

 

[BigG44]

This notion that Nill needs to save face and the only reason he's speaking this way about the D just doesn't make sense to me.

He didn't try to "save face" with the 2C. He said he was going to get one, and he got one. I really see no reason to assume he's being cryptic here.

 

[OttMorrow]

I think Nill will get us a top pairing defenseman at the trade deadline when a team is looking to rebuild. Until then the defense will be average, but suffice to get us into the playoffs. Maybe he'll look to move one of our log-jammed D-prospects + at that point after he has showcased them during the regular season. No doubt by the end of the season, we will have replenished out tank of tradeable assets and know much more about the capability of Klingberg, Nemeth, Oleksiak, and Jokipakka. I would have liked to have made a trade for a top pairing guy over the summer, but all and all Nill made the right move with so many Dmen ready to make the jump.

 

[Primetimey*]

I'm just thinking about how much hype Klingberg got last training camp/pre-season, and now with another great season in Sweden.. he and Nemeth might be a perfect fit at #5/6.

 

[glovesave_35]

I think Nill will get us a top pairing defenseman at the trade deadline when a team is looking to rebuild. Until then the defense will be average, but suffice to get us into the playoffs. Maybe he'll look to move one of our log-jammed D-prospects + at that point after he has showcased them during the regular season. No doubt by the end of the season, we will have replenished out tank of tradeable assets and know much more about the capability of Klingberg, Nemeth, Oleksiak, and Jokipakka. I would have liked to have made a trade for a top pairing guy over the summer, but all and all Nill made the right move with so many Dmen ready to make the jump.

If we end up playing a number of kids on D and they end up all playing well I don't see the point in packaging one or two for an established (read: expensive) #1 defenseman. At that point we're better off going defense by committee until one of them fills into a legit top pairing role.

Regardless, I don't see any teams with #1 defensemen who are rebuilding, aside from Giordano in Calgary. And is he enough of a stud to warrant trading a good and cheap young defender performing above his pay grade? I can't think of a single other rebuilding team with a legit #1 defenseman, and some would argue Giordano is more of a #2 on a contender.

 

[NukeJukes43]

This notion that Nill needs to save face and the only reason he's speaking this way about the D just doesn't make sense to me.

He didn't try to "save face" with the 2C. He said he was going to get one, and he got one. I really see no reason to assume he's being cryptic here.

Is it crazy of me to think he's setting up for a big move at the deadline or next off season? I know atleast 9 mil is coming off the cap hit next year with Cole and Gonchar on the way out. Horcoff is a UFA next year as well and I really don't see us signing him again. That's quite a bit of coin to work with and not many slots needing to be filled.

Maybe he uses this year as a buffer for the defense to see how they handle us having a higher caliber offense now. I think Dillon and Nemeth really come into the light this season and hopefully the trend follows with our younger guys. Unfortunately, I think this year will be a major decline in Daley's game and I don't see him being as reliable as Goose is when we'll need him. If it were easier to move Gonchar I'm sure a decent shake-up would have already happened but you never know who's available.

 

[BigG44]

I've stated that my best guess for this holding firm with young D is that all 4 require waivers a year from October.

If you done make a decision right now, then when is it going to happen?

We're set up for a major move and defense right this moment if there was one to be made. Any team trading a number 1 isn't looking for a hockey deal ... and Dallas doesn't have one to make. They don't have an extra roster forward with enough value to make a hockey trade.

That means they would be doing a trade for futures. Any team would be willing to do a one year salary dump to make the cap work if the picks and prospects were good enough ... and Dallas' could be.

The problem is, as glove pointed out, there doesn't appear to be any trade to make.

I don't think this decision has anything to do with potential moves. I think it's a need to figure out what you have right now with the confidence you have the space and the assets to pickup some short term piece if the kids aren't good enough. Then you can re rack and try again.

With what we know about Nill's preparation and attention to detail, if there was a legitimate player available ... He'd be in on it.

It would have been nice to add a 3 or 4 via free agency ... especially a right shot. It's not the end of the world he felt differently IMO, and he's proven himself to be right more often than not on defense so far.

The D didn't stop them from getting in the playoffs, and trading Robidas didn't turn out to be a disaster.

He gambled and lost on Gonchar and Ellis. I think this has a much better chance of being a positive than those two.

 

[BigG44]

Just an observation ... and genuinely interested in how the situations are different ....

Some people are pissed, disappointed that he's not ready to trust the AHL forwards.

Some of the same people seem to have a problem that an older and more experienced group of defenders is getting a chance.

If anything ... he's doing a pretty reasonable thing to spread out the impact of rookies hitting the lineup. They worked in some young forwards last year, now some D are getting their chance, and the forwards have a big opportunity next year with Horcoff, Cole, and Peverley coming off the books.

I'd say that's a pretty safe approach rather than say playing with 4 or 5 rookies in a year. Plus the last two times Dallas made the playoffs ... reserves from the AHL played an important part. I think there's definitely an advantage to add a guy like Nemeth instead of an older vet in some cases near the deadline.

Ritchie and or McKenzie could provide a similar boost.

 

[Zrhutch]

Have we launched Gonchar into space yet

 

[aloonda*]

This notion that Nill needs to save face and the only reason he's speaking this way about the D just doesn't make sense to me.

He didn't try to "save face" with the 2C. He said he was going to get one, and he got one. I really see no reason to assume he's being cryptic here.

I think it means he can't get a deal for d.
So, make our d guys feel good about things and move on.


?

 

[piqued]

Taking a step back here, I think at this point we can come to some conclusions about Nill's overall philosophy for the construction of the team.

Stuff like waiver eligibility matters and can account for part of this, but only part.

Last year's team was offense-first and figures to be even more so after this offseason. It goes back to the hiring of Ruff as the first signpost of the way forward. It goes by many names: puck possession, up-tempo, pacey... ultimately it's a system that's going to emphasize puck movers on the backend and skill up front.

Most of our own first priorities as fans revolved around fixing the defense, yet Nill chose to double down at forward. I don't think this is because Nill doesn't recognize the poor play from defenders or is OK with the status quo. At this stage of the team's development (borderline playoff/pre-contender) I'm guessing he's made the calculation that trying to outscore the other team and overwhelm them with offense through the regular season will be sufficient to get the team into the playoffs consistently and continue the seasoning process for the young core.

Once the team is ready to move into contention mode either a #1 will be acquired or one of our own will have hopefully taken that step.

One of the biggest boosts the current club could get is an offensively oriented Dman who can run the PP. To that end I believe it's absolutely critical that either Klingberg or Connauton get a regular spot in the lineup this season and are utilized to their strengths. It doesn't matter which one wins out, but one of them will need to rise to the occasion. I still think Connauton is being overlooked. He's a guy I could see making big strides in a hurry with a real partner (not Gonchar) and a real role. Oleksiak and Jokipakka I don't believe are fully ready for the NHL and are better served with more development time and Gaunce is not a viable option regardless of Nill's quotes.

If we're not bringing in someone from the outside, the group should be Goligoski/Daley/Dillon/Benn/Nemeth/One of Connauton or Klingberg/Gonchar as 7th. I'm willing to tolerate him on the roster for Val's benefit as solidifying his commitment to the team and area overrides the on-ice benefit of a better depth D option.

 

[TangoMcBride]

I respect the opinions of most everyone here so I'm always trying to look at things from the vantage point of others but I, for the life of me, can't understand this infatuation with Connauton. Other than him having a good slapper (one that rarely reaches the net), I haven't really seen anything that screams "this guy is a quality defenseman". He's an offensive leaning defenseman who has questionable puck moving skills and hockey IQ. I'm to the point where I'm more than fine with trying to pass him through waivers, if he's claimed, so be it.

 

[LT]

What is Nill supposed to say about the defense? That it's not up to par? He'd basically be shooting himself in the foot by shunning our defense, and the (probable) confidence that they gained from last season.

It's completely different from the center situation - Eakin plays a certain kind of game, one that's more fit to a #3 spot than a #2 spot. Admitting that isn't going to hurt Eakin in anyway, and I'm sure he understands it. Defense isn't as cut and dry, as there's no certain role a #3 or a #5 defender has. If you have guys playing like and thinking they're #2s, why tell them they should actually be #3s or worse?

I'm sure Nill would improve the defense if he could, but the opportunities simply aren't there. Ehrhoff likely had no interest in Dallas, and the rest of the defenders were either overpaid (severely) or would be marginal improvements at best. Nill doesn't seem like the type to just through money around - he's been pretty tight with the free agency signings so far. He stuck to those guns this offseason, and I'm glad he did. Stralman, Orpik, etc. were not the answer at all. And as I stated, I'd be stunned if Nill didn't make some kind of pitch to Ehrhoff.

He's doing what he needs to do - keep the defense's confidence up, and hope that they continue to develop as they should. We've got more than enough depth at this point that something should stick within the next few years.

As mentioned before, I do think Nill has the team set up to acquire a top-pairing defender, but it's not a necessity. One name that really stuck out to me, even though I know his history, was Edler. With the way Vancouver's going and the depth they have on defense, Edler could be expendable, and Vancouver would welcome another couple prospects (and for a guy like Edler, I'd be happy to pay up personally). It may not (probably not) be Edler, but we're definitely in a position to acquire someone like Edler. Byfuglien (if he's still even a defender), Ehrhoff or Martin (if Pittsburgh regresses severely), Campbell, Myers, or Yandle could all also be possibilities. Even though they may not be #1s, they should be enough to put us over the edge from a good team to a great team at the TD depending on how the season goes.

Regardless of what happens, I'm very excited for this upcoming season. We've got a top three 1-2 punch down the middle (Pittsburgh, San Jose, and us, maybe LA) and the defense was playing extremely well to finish the season. There's no reason to not expect us to make the playoffs this year as of now, and that's something us Stars' fans haven't been able to say for 7 years now. It feels great to know that the team cares as much as the fans do again.

 

[TrillMike]

Someone, I don't know who, would claim K. Con. I think it'd be a better option to just trade him for a low pick or another project-- if Nill is determined he isn't a regular guy.

 

[OttMorrow]

If we end up playing a number of kids on D and they end up all playing well I don't see the point in packaging one or two for an established (read: expensive) #1 defenseman. At that point we're better off going defense by committee until one of them fills into a legit top pairing role.

Regardless, I don't see any teams with #1 defensemen who are rebuilding, aside from Giordano in Calgary. And is he enough of a stud to warrant trading a good and cheap young defender performing above his pay grade? I can't think of a single other rebuilding team with a legit #1 defenseman, and some would argue Giordano is more of a #2 on a contender.

What I'm saying is that a lot can change between now and the deadline. A team with a #1 D may decide to go into rebuild mode if they miss the playoffs. Again....MAY.

 

[ps241]

Taking a step back here, I think at this point we can come to some conclusions about Nill's overall philosophy for the construction of the team.

Stuff like waiver eligibility matters and can account for part of this, but only part.

Last year's team was offense-first and figures to be even more so after this offseason. It goes back to the hiring of Ruff as the first signpost of the way forward. It goes by many names: puck possession, up-tempo, pacey... ultimately it's a system that's going to emphasize puck movers on the backend and skill up front.

Most of our own first priorities as fans revolved around fixing the defense, yet Nill chose to double down at forward. I don't think this is because Nill doesn't recognize the poor play from defenders or is OK with the status quo. At this stage of the team's development (borderline playoff/pre-contender) I'm guessing he's made the calculation that trying to outscore the other team and overwhelm them with offense through the regular season will be sufficient to get the team into the playoffs consistently and continue the seasoning process for the young core.

Once the team is ready to move into contention mode either a #1 will be acquired or one of our own will have hopefully taken that step.

One of the biggest boosts the current club could get is an offensively oriented Dman who can run the PP. To that end I believe it's absolutely critical that either Klingberg or Connauton get a regular spot in the lineup this season and are utilized to their strengths. It doesn't matter which one wins out, but one of them will need to rise to the occasion. I still think Connauton is being overlooked. He's a guy I could see making big strides in a hurry with a real partner (not Gonchar) and a real role. Oleksiak and Jokipakka I don't believe are fully ready for the NHL and are better served with more development time and Gaunce is not a viable option regardless of Nill's quotes.

If we're not bringing in someone from the outside, the group should be Goligoski/Daley/Dillon/Benn/Nemeth/One of Connauton or Klingberg/Gonchar as 7th. I'm willing to tolerate him on the roster for Val's benefit as solidifying his commitment to the team and area overrides the on-ice benefit of a better depth D option.

Really excellant post.

I think there are a few things in play. GM Joe had a size bias in drafting and I think you can see from the prospects cupboard. I believe Jim will utilize these assets and will adapt a bit to the need for size while not selling out to it. I still think there is allot of Detroit in him and he values skill and puck possession more than size. Honka as the 1st overall reinforces this to me at least.

I think Jim feels that Dallas's time for the cup is between 3 to 4 seasons from now and the defense in the system will supply the backbone for those future cup teams. I have no idea how he plans on transitioning his prospects but I don't think you will see them overreact to the short term needs on D especially when it comes to "Term" of deals. Flexibility will be key to keep the powder dry for when they need it.

I see most of these forward signings in FA as classic short term deals where they can support this young group by making it into the playoffs, learning how to compete, and eventually win some rounds and position themselves for the real run as they enter their primes. If guys like Spezza work then great extend them, if not flip them at the deadline for assets.

The Stars brand is on the rise, cash flow is increasing, the team is young, the GM is aggressive short term while building for the right time.

From the outside looking you guys appear to be one of the better up and coming organizations.

 

[Hull Fan]

I'm not going to say KC is a part of the solution but I think it's hard to judge a guy in and out of the lineup, especially when he played in one game out of the first 25. Sitting for that long can't possibly have been good for his game, his confidence, or his development. Second it's hard to show your stuff and be the puck mover you've always been with Gonchar as his partner. The two were terrible together and did not compliment either player's style.

This is obviously his make or break year. Either he seizes a job or gets passed over and becomes a defacto #7 or gets dealt for peanuts. But now finally on a roster with a few more defensively able players he may get a chance to showcase his abilities. I don't have overly high expectations but I do think he can be a serviceable 6th defender if given the opportunity.

 

[Dundalis]

What is Nill supposed to say about the defense? That it's not up to par? He'd basically be shooting himself in the foot by shunning our defense, and the (probable) confidence that they gained from last season.

It's completely different from the center situation - Eakin plays a certain kind of game, one that's more fit to a #3 spot than a #2 spot. Admitting that isn't going to hurt Eakin in anyway, and I'm sure he understands it. Defense isn't as cut and dry, as there's no certain role a #3 or a #5 defender has. If you have guys playing like and thinking they're #2s, why tell them they should actually be #3s or worse?

I'm sure Nill would improve the defense if he could, but the opportunities simply aren't there. Ehrhoff likely had no interest in Dallas, and the rest of the defenders were either overpaid (severely) or would be marginal improvements at best. Nill doesn't seem like the type to just through money around - he's been pretty tight with the free agency signings so far. He stuck to those guns this offseason, and I'm glad he did. Stralman, Orpik, etc. were not the answer at all. And as I stated, I'd be stunned if Nill didn't make some kind of pitch to Ehrhoff.

He's doing what he needs to do - keep the defense's confidence up, and hope that they continue to develop as they should. We've got more than enough depth at this point that something should stick within the next few years.

As mentioned before, I do think Nill has the team set up to acquire a top-pairing defender, but it's not a necessity. One name that really stuck out to me, even though I know his history, was Edler. With the way Vancouver's going and the depth they have on defense, Edler could be expendable, and Vancouver would welcome another couple prospects (and for a guy like Edler, I'd be happy to pay up personally). It may not (probably not) be Edler, but we're definitely in a position to acquire someone like Edler. Byfuglien (if he's still even a defender), Ehrhoff or Martin (if Pittsburgh regresses severely), Campbell, Myers, or Yandle could all also be possibilities. Even though they may not be #1s, they should be enough to put us over the edge from a good team to a great team at the TD depending on how the season goes.

Regardless of what happens, I'm very excited for this upcoming season. We've got a top three 1-2 punch down the middle (Pittsburgh, San Jose, and us, maybe LA) and the defense was playing extremely well to finish the season. There's no reason to not expect us to make the playoffs this year as of now, and that's something us Stars' fans haven't been able to say for 7 years now. It feels great to know that the team cares as much as the fans do again.

I think this fits in with something Nill said just after he made the Seguin trade. He wants a team with a backbone of talented young players that grow together, like Chicago have had. That's the key to long term sustained success as opposed to a 1 or 2 year window through simply acquiring aging vets through trade or FA.

To me that's why he wants to give the young D we have coming through a chance. Get a core of young and highly talented forwards (which we have) and Dmen and build around them.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

Agree with all of the above. Nil doesn't need to "save face" as such, but he is certainly going to spin it positive for his D and team in case nothing works out.

He is a planner. He has (as noted) probably looked at the available D in trade/UFA this year vs. next year, looked at the waiver situation, the capabilities of his prospects and the $9 Million coming off the cap next year and decided there was no D worth giving up prospects for this year, while there may be some later this year or next.

All in all, smart move if you look at a 2-4 more year window for our first true cup contention years.

However, if a PK Subban comes available because of contract talks in MTL, I would bet Nil would dump Gonchar for an 8th in a 7 round draft, Cole and Horcoff for peanuts, etc. and replace them with propsects at under $1M to find a way to get him here, if at all possible.

 

[glovesave_35]

If we're not bringing in someone from the outside, the group should be Goligoski/Daley/Dillon/Benn/Nemeth/One of Connauton or Klingberg/Gonchar as 7th. I'm willing to tolerate him on the roster for Val's benefit as solidifying his commitment to the team and area overrides the on-ice benefit of a better depth D option.

If this is the D-corps on opening day, how would you have them arranged?

 

[LT]

Was a Dillon - Connauton pairing ever tried?

 

[glovesave_35]

Was a Dillon - Connauton pairing ever tried?

I don't recall, but my memory of Connauton's season was that he was mostly used on the 3rd pairing while Dillon was obviously a top 4 guy.

That brings up the real question though, doesn't it? Do you try to make one guy better by playing him with a solid defender or do you try to give yourself a legit (for us) top 4 and worry about the rest later.

The way I see it with what we have already you've got Goligoski/Daley followed by Nemeth/Dillon. The former two finished the season playing a strong two-way game but obviously leaned toward the offensive side. The latter would be your best bet for a shutdown pairing but both guys can skate and make a good first pass. What do you do with the 3rd pair then? Benn and Connauton? Benn and Gonchar? Benn and Klingberg? What is Benn? He's an NHL defenseman but is he a two-way guy, an offensive leaning guy, or a defensive leaning guy? If he can mold his game based on who his partner is we could have a passable 3rd pairing. If he can't then that pair will have to be sheltered pretty significantly.

I might be selling Connauton super low here, I just don't know what to reasonably expect from him or from that 3rd pair if things shake out like I listed. Otherwise you've basically got the Goligoski/Daley pair that you're hoping plays like they ended the season and a mish-mash of players where you're always trying to hide someone on each of the 2nd and 3rd pairs.

 

[beepeearr]

I hope they break up Benn and Dillion this year, and maybe try Nemeth on the right side with one of them. Although, if Klingberg does make the team, I would be fine with Benn Dillion if it meant we had a Nemeth Klingberg pairing

 

[SolidusAKA]

Random thoughts I was having tonight: it seemed last year the number 40 was kind of an annoying barrier that pretty much everyone couldnt get to in terms of points. I was waiting all season for guys like Chiasson, Eakin, Whitney, Cole and even Nichushkin to hit 40 and yet none of them did. I know its kind of a stupid thing to think about but looking at Seguin and Benn going 80ish, there is such a massive drop off in terms of point production

I was just thinking about how there is a high chance that that drop off is dramatically shortened this year with the arrival of Spezza and Hemsky as well as the development of guys like Nichushkin and Eakin. Im thinking we could have 8 guys (Benn, Seguin, Spezza, Hemsky, Nichushkin, Eakin, Goligoski, Pevs?) get past that stupid 40 mark that I kept lamenting last year rather than just the 3 who did (Benn, Seguin, Goligoski). I was looking over all the stats from last year and we were far and away the team with the biggest drop off in terms of point producers so I just thought it was an interesting thing to reflect on going into this season.