Pre-Game Talk: Isles @ Leafs

[rent free]

Nope JVR can at least score Leivo does nothing, he brings nothing, people call JVR 1 dimensional but at least he has a dimension Leivo is 0 dimensional

because leivo plays on the 4th line. how is he supposed to produce when he plays with moore?

 

[Randy Randerson]

Nope JVR can at least score Leivo does nothing, he brings nothing, people call JVR 1 dimensional but at least he has a dimension Leivo is 0 dimensional

Leivo needs a chance in a scoring situation (like JVR gets every night) before we go making any grand proclamations of what he is or isn't. He's a much better 2 way player than JVR, that bears out very obviously in the shot attempt metrics, so even if he weren't quite the offensive player that JVR is he could still be a viable substitute

we won't know what we have until he has a real chance to show us

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

because leivo plays on the 4th line. how is he supposed to produce when he plays with moore?

he can do other things, when I does nothing I don't mean he doesn't score.

I mean he doesn't score, hit, fight, PK, block shots, win board battles, he does nothing, literally every sigle player on that team does more than him including Polak, at least he can PK, Hell Moore can PK to.

again, when I say a guy does nothing I do mean nothing

 

[rent free]

he can do other things, when I does nothing I don't mean he doesn't score.

I mean he doesn't score, hit, fight, PK, block shots, win board battles, he does nothing, literally every sigle player on that team does more than him including Polak, at least he can PK, Hell Moore can PK to.

again, when I say a guy does nothing I do mean nothing

what does jvr do that leivo can't if they are given the same opportunity?

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Leivo needs a chance in a scoring situation (like JVR gets every night) before we go making any grand proclamations of what he is or isn't. He's a much better 2 way player than JVR, that bears out very obviously in the shot attempt metrics, so even if he weren't quite the offensive player that JVR is he could still be a viable substitute

we won't know what we have until he has a real chance to show us

I am not asking him to score, we got Mattews, Marner, Nylander, Kadri, Marleau JVR, and to a lesser extent Brown for that.

I am asking Leivo to do something ANYTHING PK, hit, Block shots, fight, win board battles, do SOMETHING

 

[Liminality]

what does jvr do that leivo can't if they are given the same opportunity?

I know Leivo deserves a chance but I highly doubt that Leivo is a 30 goal scorer that can replace JVR like that.

 

[Advanced stats]

really? leivo won't ever be a guy that makes a living off of his net presence and nothing else?

I never said that....
Levio could be a 25 point net front presence, while JVR is a 60 point net front presence..

Never thought of that didya?

 

[rent free]

I know Leivo deserves a chance but I highly doubt that Leivo is a 30 goal scorer that can replace JVR like that.

he probably won't but if he can get 20 goals and 50 points that would be great as well

 

[Randy Randerson]

I am not asking him to score, we got Mattews, Marner, Nylander, Kadri, Marleau JVR, and to a lesser extent Brown for that.

I am asking Leivo to do something ANYTHING PK, hit, Block shots, fight, win board battles, do SOMETHING

well, he's a board monster - regularly goes into scrums 1 on 2/3 and comes away with the puck to do something productive, have a look at his Fenwick/Corsi relatives and you can see how much of a lift he is to his linemates that way: Josh Leivo Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

He's not a fighter or a PK'er, if he's going to be a long term NHL player it's probably in a scoring role as a supporting cast type guy. He's been somewhere between not bad and amazing when he gets opportunities in scoring roles, he needs more of that time to see what he is.

in the meantime, he hasn't played in a month so he really can't produce anything until Babcock lets him

 

[rent free]

I never said that....
Levio could be a 25 point net front presence, while JVR is a 60 point net front presence..

Never thought of that didya?

leivo could also be a 60 point presence playing with nylander and kapanen

 

[Randy Randerson]

I never said that....
Levio could be a 25 point net front presence, while JVR is a 60 point net front presence..

Never thought of that didya?

sure, but does it hurt to find out? JVR is a luxury that we can't afford so his replacement has to come from somewhere

also, Leivo's a career goals/pts per 60 are right in line with JVR's so there's reason to believe that he could be that level of player

 

[Blanche Blanche]

"Babs knew the optimal lineup the whole time"

Yeah, ok, sure.

Proud of you Babs. Now lets hope this chip and chase system has run its course and Polak never wears the blue and white in a game situation again.

I half agree... I think Babs knew what the stats were ( Talented speed > Rugged vets), and what modern NHL compete level is. Its not a coincidence we have top quality coming out of the Farm by the Brass...

I think he rode these stale lines, for as long he did because it was a final try out for the vets. How else could one explain Polak being in night after night.

He wanted to see who meshed well with the future big 3+ reilly, and who drags em down.

Makes sense to me considering how key the next TD is with UFAs. We have had a huge pad in points to start this season, and Boston was slow at first...

Now the race for home ice is real... and we still have a locked spot because Atl. Div is weak.

Very good spot Babs is in...
All the other rebuild coaches listened to their fans cry about lines and TOI, and they all are sucking lol... babs is called stubborn, and were 4th in the east, 8th in the league coming off of a month slump.

Babs is good.
LEAFS are good...
Go leafs go!!!!!

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I think people over hype Leivo, he is only 4 years younger than JVR but JVR has 184 career goals while Leivo has 10.

Expecting Leivo to come in and put up 20 goals + 20 assist is completely unrealistic in my mind. He looks worse this year than he did last year to be honest and he is 24.

I don't think there is that much more room for development, forwards at his age have usually become NHL regulars if they are going to be impact players

 

[frizzer1]

Leivo has never been given the chance to play regular minutes with skilled players so we don't know what he can do.
You have to think that is because they can see that he is not good enough to get that chance.

What I don't understand is, if that is the case, what is doing here and why was he resigned?

 

[DarkKnight]

As far as JVR goes, don't forget someone else is going to get that prime spot on the PP that otherwise wouldn't, so the goals aren't just lost. Leivo might do okay down low too with the likes of Marner feeding him. 5 on 5 I won't miss JVR for one second, ditto Bozie, see ya. We have enough talent that others will simply get more PP time, like Matthews for instance.

 

[AppsSyl]

As far as JVR goes, don't forget someone else is going to get that prime spot on the PP that otherwise wouldn't, so the goals aren't just lost. Leivo might do okay down low too with the likes of Marner feeding him. 5 on 5 I won't miss JVR for one second, ditto Bozie, see ya. We have enough talent that others will simply get more PP time, like Matthews for instance.

I think we are really missing out with Matthews not in JVR's spot on the PP. With Matthews' hand-eye coordination, ability to tip pucks and slide garbage goals in close, he would own the front of the net on the PP with Marner feeding him. I can never understand why we have him on the half wall on the PP, when he is so good in tight.

 

[Muston Atthews]

I think we are really missing out with Matthews not in JVR's spot on the PP. With Matthews' hand-eye coordination, ability to tip pucks and slide garbage goals in close, he would own the front of the net on the PP with Marner feeding him. I can never understand why we have him on the half wall on the PP, when he is so good in tight.

He’s had back issues in the past IIRC. I’m not sure our set up works for Auston as is but I don’t know if I’d want him getting cross checks to the back for a minute straight.

The Nylander-Matthews cross ice pass is lethal on the PP they just haven’t been clicking lately. It also appears Matthews is trying to incorporate a one timer into his game this year. He’s tried it on the PP a few times this year (he’s whiffed) and he scored that beauty the other night on the 2 on 1

 

[IBeL34f]

I think we are really missing out with Matthews not in JVR's spot on the PP. With Matthews' hand-eye coordination, ability to tip pucks and slide garbage goals in close, he would own the front of the net on the PP with Marner feeding him. I can never understand why we have him on the half wall on the PP, when he is so good in tight.

If you start on the outside, you can shoot from there, make a pass, or move in close. If you start in close...

My biggest issue with the PP setup was that Matthews and Nylander seemed to play on their strong wings, despite that being counter-intuitive when considering shot angles - It made it really difficult for them to get their releases off as quickly as they could, and therefore made them easier to defend against. If memory serves me correctly, they've switched sides in recent games, which makes more sense.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I think people over hype Leivo, he is only 4 years younger than JVR but JVR has 184 career goals while Leivo has 10.

Expecting Leivo to come in and put up 20 goals + 20 assist is completely unrealistic in my mind. He looks worse this year than he did last year to be honest and he is 24.

I don't think there is that much more room for development, forwards at his age have usually become NHL regulars if they are going to be impact players

whatever your opinions are on Leivo, you absolutely can not use aggregate stats to evaluate him when he has 53 career games played to JVR's 578

He's had 12 games this year, averaging just over 10 mins/game, almost exclusively on the 4th line in 60+% DZS usage and those games have been sporadic at best. He's still outscoring JVR on a per 60 basis which is the way it has to be looked at to make it even close to apples-to-apples. His linemates also fare much better with him than without him across the board in shot attempt metrics


that's not to suggest that he's better than JVR offensively, but unbelievable that he can't get a real tryout with scoring line time over an extended continuous period

 

[DarkKnight]

I think we are really missing out with Matthews not in JVR's spot on the PP. With Matthews' hand-eye coordination, ability to tip pucks and slide garbage goals in close, he would own the front of the net on the PP with Marner feeding him. I can never understand why we have him on the half wall on the PP, when he is so good in tight.

I don't hate JVR, in fact he was maybe the biggest reason we sealed a playoff spot last year, pure beast mode. I just don't agree you directly lose his production, because like you said Matthews takes that spot. Factor in all the goals he and Bozak have historically given back even strength, the loss of those two isn't as pronounced as some suggest.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

whatever your opinions are on Leivo, you absolutely can not use aggregate stats to evaluate him when he has 53 career games played to JVR's 578

He's had 12 games this year, averaging just over 10 mins/game, almost exclusively on the 4th line in 60+% DZS usage and those games have been sporadic at best. He's still outscoring JVR on a per 60 basis which is the way it has to be looked at to make it even close to apples-to-apples. His linemates also fare much better with him than without him across the board in shot attempt metrics


that's not to suggest that he's better than JVR offensively, but unbelievable that he can't get a real tryout with scoring line time over an extended continuous period

What I was trying to point out is that JVR is considered too old by some yet he is only 4 years older than Leivo and JVR is way more proven. I feel like people expect Leivo to just walk into JVRs position and put up 50 points right away. I'm not counting on that as he hasn't really ever done anything special at an Nhl level. Not even amazing AHL stats.

With the same logic I don't know how you could use any stats from his 12 game sample size to make any conclusions.

I worry that the coaches and management that see him play and practice all the time noticed something that could hold him back at the NHL level and that's why he hasn't had a proper look. As I bet the chances of a 25 year old rookie becoming an impact NHL player are low. Especially if you exclude European free agents.

Also from all the games he as played this year he left me wanting something more. Just a step too late for a loose puck or shooting when there is a clear better pass open. I don't know, as last year he looked great. Maybe confidence

 

[PromisedLand]

he played on the 4th line when he was in the lineup last time. hard to get points when you play with moore and brown. he plays on the pp when he's in the lineup and he's a big body net presence. that's essentially what jvr is

Correction Leivo played with

Martin-Moore
Or
Martin-Goat

Leivo didn’t have any skilled line mate but he is expected to produce on the 4th line lol

 

[Randy Randerson]

What I was trying to point out is that JVR is considered too old by some yet he is only 4 years older than Leivo and JVR is way more proven. I feel like people expect Leivo to just walk into JVRs position and put up 50 points right away. I'm not counting on that as he hasn't really ever done anything special at an Nhl level. Not even amazing AHL stats.

With the same logic I don't know how you could use any stats from his 12 game sample size to make any conclusions.

I worry that the coaches and management that see him play and practice all the time noticed something that could hold him back at the NHL level and that's why he hasn't had a proper look. As I bet the chances of a 25 year old rookie becoming an impact NHL player are low. Especially if you exclude European free agents.

Also from all the games he as played this year he left me wanting something more. Just a step too late for a loose puck or shooting when there is a clear better pass open. I don't know, as last year he looked great. Maybe confidence

I don't think that JVR is too old or that the common perception is that he's too old, it's that he's going to be expensive beyond this year and very likely to decline before the end of his next contract so he's not a great bet to place


Leivo's NHL stats are the amazing part in how he shows up in the shot generation metrics, and that's been pretty much his whole career not just the 12 games this year (but especially last season). It might be a total anomaly, but we can find out for free so I don't understand why we don't. Walking into JVR's position and putting up 50 isn't a given, but it's a possibility

let me also be very clear that I'm not drawing any conclusions other than we should follow the smoke to see if there's fire

The reason that he's a 25yo rookie is more because he hasn't been given the opportunity that his play has dictated he should get, he should have been a full timer from 2015/16 onward on a thin team. If the coaches see something that they think will disqualify him that hasn't born out in his time in the NHL, it seems really silly to me for them not to just see what they have. As we get closer to cup contention, our autonomy to experiment with the lineup will tighten so if it were me I'd be finding out now (or last year)

I'm sure there's a confidence element at play with his performance this season, I know I'd be very worried to make any mistakes and gripping my stick too tight if I were him. But, he's still doing well what he does well - generate productive possession for his line. That's what he'll be if he's good, a guy that keeps cycles going longer than they should, steals pucks in the offensive zone and gets them to dangerous areas while having decent vision and a very plus wrist shot. He's not going to be a Panarin type who dazzles every play with unreal talent plays, just very effective if he turns out

 

[AppsSyl]

He’s had back issues in the past IIRC. I’m not sure our set up works for Auston as is but I don’t know if I’d want him getting cross checks to the back for a minute straight.

The Nylander-Matthews cross ice pass is lethal on the PP they just haven’t been clicking lately. It also appears Matthews is trying to incorporate a one timer into his game this year. He’s tried it on the PP a few times this year (he’s whiffed) and he scored that beauty the other night on the 2 on 1

Every team looks for this now. They need to adjust. One of the reasons that powerplay unit has been so atrocious lately is because that cross ice pass is picked off or deflected, because everyone knows it is coming.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

Isles lose 4-1 to the Panthers who played a rookie goalie who got his first win. They might come out flying tmrw.