If the Wings pick 3rd….

[Detroit Knights]

It would be really silly to be upset about picking either. Neither is bust proof and both have really high ceilings.

didn't know upset would be taken that literal but sure.

 

[ricky0034]

Maybe "surprised" is too strong a word. I mean, surprises happen all the time in the draft, relative to expectations people set. But if you know these "surprises" are inevitably coming every draft, then I guess they aren't really surprises. In that way, no, Carlsson over Fantilli would not be surprising. But I expect Fantilli to go ahead of Carlsson. I think the things Fantilli does better than Carlsson (shot, first three steps, physicality) carry a little more value at the NHL level today than the things Carlsson does better than Fantilli (dangles, passing, possession). In the end, it's a small difference, we're splitting hairs, and I'd be happy with either one. But my current expectation is that Fantilli goes before Carlsson.

As far as Carlsson being more likely to go at #4 than #2, it's because of Chicago and Michkov. If Bedard goes #1, Fantilli goes #2, and Chicago is on the clock at #3.... I think Michkov is going to be awfully appealing. I believe Chicago is going to be content staying cratered for a few more years, collecting the highest picks they can get. So, 1) they won't mind Michkov being 3 years away, and 2) that might actually be a plus.... they can be more awful without him, and his absence can help them get better picks in the following years. Normally, I'd say this kind of thing is bordering on crazy, but Chicago is all in on tanking, stripping things down to the bone, and accumulating high picks. If there's one team where Michkov's negatives don't matter, it's probably Chicago. And with those negatives stripped away, is Carlsson really an obvious pick over Michkov?

you know Chicago only has a 7.8% chance of picking #3 right? this would imply that Fantilli has like a 90% chance of going above Carlsson at 2 which sounds way too high to me

 

[Holden Caufield]

 

[jaster]

you know Chicago only has a 7.8% chance of picking #3 right? this would imply that Fantilli has like a 90% chance of going above Carlsson at 2 which sounds way too high to me

Fair point. Guess I have to own that 90% now

 

[norrisnick]

didn't know upset would be taken that literal but sure.

I mean. You can prefer one over the other. But they are legitimately both in the conversation for #2. Just using the terminology of the question.

 

[SantosHalper]

Carlsson, easily.

 

[DamonDRW]

And Carlsson is the best Swedish forward prospect since Mats Sundin. You can't skip that either.

There shouldn't be any comparison between Sundin and Malkin. One is a generational taken who won 3 SC, another one is a big Swede forward.

 

[ridilon]

Because I think it's more of a coincidence than anything, and I don't know why we are acting like we know that is something Yzerman would or wouldn't do?

He drafted Cal Foote and Tony DeAngelo with his top pick when in Tampa and they were guys that had December and October birthdates FWIW

I know DeAngelo and Foote were overagers.

Sample of 5 where you remove 1 observation because it doesn't suit your narrative are not stats

Yes, they are stats. And I said in my follow up post that SY went 4/5 with the Wings. 5/7 with TB INCLUDING December pick of Cal Foote. Wanna look at 2nd round picks? Probably not since it's easier to be a cynic and take an anti stance, but I digress. With TB Yzerman took 11 of 13 2nd round kids born after the first of the year. With the DRW it's been 7 of 9 (nod to Jeri Ryan). So let's not bother with statistics - it's something like 27 out of 34 1st/2nd round picks. ~80% isn't really a stat. He goes with the young kids. Don't bother believing it, make your own 'narrative' on the subject.

 

[DoMakc]

I know DeAngelo and Foote were overagers.

Yes, they are stats. And I said in my follow up post that SY went 4/5 with the Wings. 5/7 with TB INCLUDING December pick of Cal Foote. Wanna look at 2nd round picks? Probably not since it's easier to be a cynic and take an anti stance, but I digress. With TB Yzerman took 11 of 13 2nd round kids born after the first of the year. With the DRW it's been 7 of 9 (nod to Jeri Ryan). So let's not bother with statistics - it's something like 27 out of 34 1st/2nd round picks. ~80% isn't really a stat. He goes with the young kids. Don't bother believing it, make your own 'narrative' on the subject.

Cool. There is only one thing: There are 9 months after cutoff and 3 before. If we assume uniform distribution for birthdays, we can expect round about 75% of so called "late" birthdays, being picked. 80% of Yzerman do not impress me in this context at all.

 

[jaster]

Cool. There is only one thing: There are 9 months after cutoff and 3 before. If we assume uniform distribution for birthdays, we can expect round about 75% of so called "late" birthdays, being picked. 80% of Yzerman do not impress me in this context at all.

Now THEM are some stats. Boom.

 

[BrettMB]

Judging by size alone, Carlsson would be harder to play gainst, vs. Michkov, and it's being "hard to play against" that the DRW keep talking about.

 

[Kibe]

It will be interesting to see both Carlsson and Fantilli in the world's. Atleast in the two practice games against Finland Carlsson was pretty much Sweden's best player.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I would pick Michkov if I had this pick. I know we are worried about him coming over on an extended timeline. To me he is the best player on the board at that point. More unpopular, I pick him at #2 also even over Fantilli. He isn't Lucas Raymond, he is the guy who's records he keeps breaking at every step. Nikita Kucherov. Now would you wait 4 years for a decade plus of Kucherov... I would. I still think that resolves quicker, though I am bothered by the latest news and tragedy around his family. I still think his talent puts him firmly at #2 for me and if you're picking that high in the draft you should go with your highest ranked player.

 

[norrisnick]

I would pick Michkov if I had this pick. I know we are worried about him coming over on an extended timeline. To me he is the best player on the board at that point. More unpopular, I pick him at #2 also even over Fantilli. He isn't Lucas Raymond, he is the guy who's records he keeps breaking at every step. Nikita Kucherov. Now would you wait 4 years for a decade plus of Kucherov... I would. I still think that resolves quicker, though I am bothered by the latest news and tragedy around his family. I still think his talent puts him firmly at #2 for me and if you're picking that high in the draft you should go with your highest ranked player.

If you're picking that high you shouldn't have to wait 3+ years. That's half the value of picking at the top of the draft. Not having to wait as long.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

If you're picking that high you shouldn't have to wait 3+ years. That's half the value of picking at the top of the draft. Not having to wait as long.

The point of the picking at the top of the draft is to get a franchise cornerstone piece. I think at the height of Michkov's powers he will be a top 10 point producer and an all first/second team NHL winger. He displays elite ability as an offensive driver. I won't pass on that because he has a contract in Russia.

 

[norrisnick]

The point of the picking at the top of the draft is to get a franchise cornerstone piece. I think at the height of Michkov's powers he will be a top 10 point producer and an all first/second team NHL winger. He displays elite ability as an offensive driver. I won't pass on that because he has a contract in Russia.

And Fantilli and Carlsson have the same sort of potential to be impacts from the middle of the ice with their size and skill. And you won't have to wait for them.

I get the argument if there were nothing after Bedard this year. But there are options.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

The point of the picking at the top of the draft is to get a franchise cornerstone piece. I think at the height of Michkov's powers he will be a top 10 point producer and an all first/second team NHL winger. He displays elite ability as an offensive driver. I won't pass on that because he has a contract in Russia.

I’m strangely on Norrisnick’s side here. It feels weird to say that.

I’m not doubting the talent of Michkov but there’s 3 things that a journalist (I think Tony Ferrari?) said in an interview that stuck with me:

1. Michkov is little. (Generously) listed as 5’10” and 148lbs and a scorer works in the KHL. It might not work in the NHL. I know the NHL is going more towards speed and skill but players are much faster, bigger and stronger in the NHL than in other leagues. So how much does Michkov fill out? Is this a Marcel Dionne situation where his size doesn’t matter because of his dynamism And the other team won’t have a chance at even hitting him?

2. No question about Michkov’s raw talent being at the very top, maybe even better than Bedard’s, but the hockey IQ was questioned early in the season and it gave me pause. The journalist mentioned how Michkov attacks in the offensive zone and comes up the center of the neutral zone only to wind up on the perimeter of the offensive zone a lot of times. Then in the same breath mentioned how it’s the exact opposite with a guy like Carlsson who takes the puck on the boards in the neutral zone and funnels the offense towards the net. THIS is the big one for me.

3. When Michkov isn’t scoring he’s about as useless as a pecker on the pope. Guys like Bedard, Fantilli and Carlsson are involved defensively, engaged in board battles and help in all 3 zones to varying degrees. You’re not going to get that from Michkov.

I’ll admit I haven’t watched a ton of Michkov, but I have seen a lot of Carlsson this year and that is a spot-on assessment of how he generates offense. He’s also been pretty good in his own zone when playing at center and definitely not deterred by physical play. I’d 100% take him or Fantilli 1st overall in the 2017, 2020, 21 and 22 drafts. I still probably take either of them over Dahlin and Hughes in 2018 and 2019.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

And Fantilli and Carlsson have the same sort of potential to be impacts from the middle of the ice with their size and skill. And you won't have to wait for them.

I get the argument if there were nothing after Bedard this year. But there are options.

I don't see either of those guys having top 10 offense at the NHL level. So no I don't think they have that impact. I am in the crowd that thinks Carlsson might just wind up a winger. I like him and Fantilli, I think they are all-star players. I think Bedard and Michkov are generational label type players, they are the 100+ point guys for lots of years in my opinion.

Again we don't all have to see the players the same way. I generally lean towards the bigger athletes, but there is something really special about Michkov when I have seen him, I just see him as that dynamic offensive talent. I think there is a reason he is breaking the records he is breaking and the names there suggest what I think he ultimately becomes. He is the next Russian superstar up front, I think ultimately like the other special talents they will find a way to get him out of his contract quicker too if he goes early.

 

[norrisnick]

I don't see either of those guys having top 10 offense at the NHL level. So no I don't think they have that impact. I am in the crowd that thinks Carlsson might just wind up a winger. I like him and Fantilli, I think they are all-star players. I think Bedard and Michkov are generational label type players, they are the 100+ point guys for lots of years in my opinion.

Again we don't all have to see the players the same way. I generally lean towards the bigger athletes, but there is something really special about Michkov when I have seen him, I just see him as that dynamic offensive talent. I think there is a reason he is breaking the records he is breaking and the names there suggest what I think he ultimately becomes. He is the next Russian superstar up front, I think ultimately like the other special talents they will find a way to get him out of his contract quicker too if he goes early.

Awful lofty projections to paint these kids as perennials at 100+.

If Fantilli and Carlsson end up as 80-90pt all-around Kopitar/Barkovs, I don't see how that's a loss compared to a small winger that might score 10pts more a year.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Just win the lottery and take Bedard

This would be a dream come true.

 

[Realgud]

I’m strangely on Norrisnick’s side here. It feels weird to say that.

I’m not doubting the talent of Michkov but there’s 3 things that a journalist (I think Tony Ferrari?) said in an interview that stuck with me:

1. Michkov is little. (Generously) listed as 5’10” and 148lbs and a scorer works in the KHL. It might not work in the NHL. I know the NHL is going more towards speed and skill but players are much faster, bigger and stronger in the NHL than in other leagues. So how much does Michkov fill out? Is this a Marcel Dionne situation where his size doesn’t matter because of his dynamism And the other team won’t have a chance at even hitting him?

2. No question about Michkov’s raw talent being at the very top, maybe even better than Bedard’s, but the hockey IQ was questioned early in the season and it gave me pause. The journalist mentioned how Michkov attacks in the offensive zone and comes up the center of the neutral zone only to wind up on the perimeter of the offensive zone a lot of times. Then in the same breath mentioned how it’s the exact opposite with a guy like Carlsson who takes the puck on the boards in the neutral zone and funnels the offense towards the net. THIS is the big one for me.

3. When Michkov isn’t scoring he’s about as useless as a pecker on the pope. Guys like Bedard, Fantilli and Carlsson are involved defensively, engaged in board battles and help in all 3 zones to varying degrees. You’re not going to get that from Michkov.

I’ll admit I haven’t watched a ton of Michkov, but I have seen a lot of Carlsson this year and that is a spot-on assessment of how he generates offense. He’s also been pretty good in his own zone when playing at center and definitely not deterred by physical play. I’d 100% take him or Fantilli 1st overall in the 2017, 2020, 21 and 22 drafts. I still probably take either of them over Dahlin and Hughes in 2018 and 2019.

For point 2, I disagree with the notion that Michkov plays only on the perimeter. I've watched him a lot in Sochi and he gets involved around the crease a lot (when he can), maybe not physically but getting loose pucks and this is where he shines offensively. He usually has no issues driving the net but Sochi is such a historically bad team that you just didn't see the play develop often to allow these types of decisions to be made in the first place. He's quite strong for being so small. I think there's tons of potential there if he puts in the work off the ice.

For point 3, again, in Sochi, whenever he had to get involved defensively and put in the effort, he was totally fine and his awareness helps him defend quite effectively. He had no choice but to show this part of his game because his team had to defend most of the time. This is not something you'd see him do in junior because I guess that was not as necessary or not what he was tasked to do, so this notion that he is a bad defensive player is wrong (in my opinion). Also, I often see Fantilli being talked up as being this great 2-way center but I haven't seen a single game that made me believe he's a good defensive player. He does get involved, yes (because he is a center), and his size and speed definitely help there but that advantage will disappear in the NHL and his lack of defensive awareness will get exposed if he doesn't improve. He often loses coverage, gets lost on positioning, gets beaten a bit too easily.

I like Carlsson a lot and would be thrilled if we picked him, even at 2, but I think Michkov is that type of generational talent you can't pass on but I guess there's some risk with his size and the russian thing so that would be understandable if we passed on him for other potential franchise defining talent in Carlsson or Fantilli.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

For point 2, I disagree with the notion that Michkov plays only on the perimeter. I've watched him a lot in Sochi and he gets involved around the crease a lot (when he can), maybe not physically but getting loose pucks and this is where he shines offensively. He usually has no issues driving the net but Sochi is such a historically bad team that you just didn't see the play develop often to allow these types of decisions to be made in the first place. He's quite strong for being so small. I think there's tons of potential there if he puts in the work off the ice.

For point 3, again, in Sochi, whenever he had to get involved defensively and put in the effort, he was totally fine and his awareness helps him defend quite effectively. He had no choice but to show this part of his game because his team had to defend most of the time. This is not something you'd see him do in junior because I guess that was not as necessary or not what he was tasked to do, so this notion that he is a bad defensive player is wrong (in my opinion). Also, I often see Fantilli being talked up as being this great 2-way center but I haven't seen a single game that made me believe he's a good defensive player. He does get involved, yes (because he is a center), and his size and speed definitely help there but that advantage will disappear in the NHL and his lack of defensive awareness will get exposed if he doesn't improve. He often loses coverage, gets lost on positioning, gets beaten a bit too easily.

I like Carlsson a lot and would be thrilled if we picked him, even at 2, but I think Michkov is that type of generational talent you can't pass on but I guess there's some risk with his size and the russian thing so that would be understandable if we passed on him for other potential franchise defining talent in Carlsson or Fantilli.

I’m just the messenger. Those are things that Ferrari noted. Like I said, I haven’t watched much Michkov but I’m definitely biased towards the big centers.

 

[SantosHalper]

I take a perennial selke center over a "Panarin/Gaudreau" any day in the week.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Awful lofty projections to paint these kids as perennials at 100+.

If Fantilli and Carlsson end up as 80-90pt all-around Kopitar/Barkovs, I don't see how that's a loss compared to a small winger that might score 10pts more a year.

We have more passable industrious center types than we do offensive forces. If we are lucky enough to win the lottery and we draft Fantilli I am not going to be upset. Painting them as Kopitar and Barkov isn't exactly a low bar either. My preference is for the bigger offensive gun. I just think we need a dynamic scorer.

 

[Frk It]

I would pick Michkov if I had this pick. I know we are worried about him coming over on an extended timeline. To me he is the best player on the board at that point. More unpopular, I pick him at #2 also even over Fantilli. He isn't Lucas Raymond, he is the guy who's records he keeps breaking at every step. Nikita Kucherov. Now would you wait 4 years for a decade plus of Kucherov... I would. I still think that resolves quicker, though I am bothered by the latest news and tragedy around his family. I still think his talent puts him firmly at #2 for me and if you're picking that high in the draft you should go with your highest ranked player.

I can’t remember the last time I saw a prospect for the first time and was more impressed than when I saw Michkov at the U18s (in 2021?)