Speculation: I think 2021 draft picks are less valuable due to covid restrictions.

[Byrddog]

You know what? 20 years ago people were saying the same thing. And 20 years before that.

Hockey players are better trained than they ever have been. The main difference I have seen is that the bottom six players are faster than ever, and the goalies bigger than ever. These two factors make it tougher to score, as the talent gap between players has narrowed, and you have ginormous dudes filling up the goal crease and allowing pucks to hit them. The worst, most diluted hockey was in the late 60's and early 70's. You had a very few talented teams like the Bruins and Habs racking up wins against expansion teams that were truly awful. Euro and American players were rare, and the WHA was siphoning off talent. Now THAT was watered down hockey.

In 1970 there were 14 teams the talent pool was much smaller and it was a different game. There were 4 teams that had over 90 points that year. It was a case of the haves and the have nots. Only 6 of the 14 teams had a positive goal dif. Today that number is 18 of the 31. The game is different but speed only goes so far in balancing the game out. The Cap has evened the team out when it comes to top talent. Your 100% correct about the dynasty teams just feasting on the expansion teams. The expansion of Euros into the league kept up for a while as expansion continued but now many of the bottom 6 players can not compete with the top talent yet they garner millions each year and the level of play is not as good as the smaller league provided once the Euros and American players developed. The 80's was my favorite decade there was still a physical game and win lose or tie. I suppose people wanted to see fast skaters but the number of fast skaters with the skill of McDavid, Point, Barzal and a handful of others in the league now diminishes the game as a whole for this old fan.

 

[Byrddog]

?? The youth movement has caused the quality of the game to suffer for going on 20 years now? Seems like a weird take with the game being faster, more skilled, and average age of player is lower than ever rn.

Give me a 40 year old Gordy Howe to any of these fast kids now.

 

[FauxNorthJetsFan]

The paradox is that the value of going 4th overall is sunk, but the benefit of having 2 1st round picks has actually gone up. If you have far more uncertainty in who you are drafting, you want to hedge your bets with more picks.

Every draft for the next few years is gonna suffer because every kid in the sport has lost a year of play. It might actually turn out that 2021 is one of the stronger drafts, because they were more developed when the pause occurred. Every player is effectively drafting 17 year olds at this point, for potentially the next decade.

It is obvious at 25 year old missing a year is no big deal and it may end up benefiting them because they experience less injuries. However if you are younger and you've missed your most pivotal years of development it may be far harder to get back on track.

 

[FauxNorthJetsFan]

In 1970 there were 14 teams the talent pool was much smaller and it was a different game. There were 4 teams that had over 90 points that year. It was a case of the haves and the have nots. Only 6 of the 14 teams had a positive goal dif. Today that number is 18 of the 31. The game is different but speed only goes so far in balancing the game out. The Cap has evened the team out when it comes to top talent. Your 100% correct about the dynasty teams just feasting on the expansion teams. The expansion of Euros into the league kept up for a while as expansion continued but now many of the bottom 6 players can not compete with the top talent yet they garner millions each year and the level of play is not as good as the smaller league provided once the Euros and American players developed. The 80's was my favorite decade there was still a physical game and win lose or tie. I suppose people wanted to see fast skaters but the number of fast skaters with the skill of McDavid, Point, Barzal and a handful of others in the league now diminishes the game as a whole for this old fan.

Brian Burke explains it best. Ahl players drinking night after night while playing regular season games etc.

40 years ago the league was mostly Canadian. The number of European and American players went way way up. And this is clearly not because the quality of Canadian hockey has gone down. 12 year old kids now play with the discipline and consistency of 1970s adults.

 

[sxvnert]

Not buying it. If anything 2021 picks would become more valuable since later picks could turn out to be steals.

 

[57special]

In 1970 there were 14 teams the talent pool was much smaller and it was a different game. There were 4 teams that had over 90 points that year. It was a case of the haves and the have nots. Only 6 of the 14 teams had a positive goal dif. Today that number is 18 of the 31. The game is different but speed only goes so far in balancing the game out. The Cap has evened the team out when it comes to top talent. Your 100% correct about the dynasty teams just feasting on the expansion teams. The expansion of Euros into the league kept up for a while as expansion continued but now many of the bottom 6 players can not compete with the top talent yet they garner millions each year and the level of play is not as good as the smaller league provided once the Euros and American players developed. The 80's was my favorite decade there was still a physical game and win lose or tie. I suppose people wanted to see fast skaters but the number of fast skaters with the skill of McDavid, Point, Barzal and a handful of others in the league now diminishes the game as a whole for this old fan.

Agree with most of what you said, especially the cap evening out(rather than diluting) the play. I preferred the original six era, myself, but I am liking the present day hockey, except for the giant goalies and their equipment making it too hard too score. Things i don't miss;

-The endless fighting . Everyone romanticizes the good fights, but forgets the endless milling about that went on forever. From what I have head from oldtimers, the true tough guys were the vets coming back from the wars. They had been in the trenches, and beaches, killing, and being killed. Some of the play had to be truly frightening. There was a reason the young player usually didn't jump right in from Junior, even in an era where teens grew up faster.

-Two line offsides.

-Obstruction(interference, hooking, holding).

-The lousy camera work, especially in the US based teams arenas, which often were poorly lit and covered in a haze of tobacco smoke.

Sorry for the digression. Have no idea if the 2021 draft will be a good one, or not. I am guessing that a lot of club scouts will end up looking foolish about 5 years from now, though it's hard to blame them when some of the prospects will barely have played, others have been ill, and others have been playing in unusual circumstances. Is it possible that the later 1st round picks and early second round picks might end up being more fruitful than in a normal year?

 

[voxel]

You know what? 20 years ago people were saying the same thing. And 20 years before that.

Hockey players are better trained than they ever have been. The main difference I have seen is that the bottom six players are faster than ever, and the goalies bigger than ever. These two factors make it tougher to score, as the talent gap between players has narrowed, and you have ginormous dudes filling up the goal crease and allowing pucks to hit them. The worst, most diluted hockey was in the late 60's and early 70's. You had a very few talented teams like the Bruins and Habs racking up wins against expansion teams that were truly awful. Euro and American players were rare, and the WHA was siphoning off talent. Now THAT was watered down hockey.

This.

And lately we've seen more cheap Euros P.Suter/Kubalik/Haas/Nygard/Hakanpaa/Zub/Nesterov fill out rosters instead of calling up AHLers. The Condors have two of the top AHL scorers but they haven't been called up because the Oilers have Haas/Nygard to fill the bottom-6 roles.

I feel late picks might get less valuable in near future.

 

[IceNeophyte]

I'd be more prone to say less predictable than I would less valuable.

 

[Boondock]

Also because this draft just doesn't look any good.

How would you know, Buffalo doesn't scout.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

If a team was smart they would be looking to acquire 2021 draft picks if everyone else values them so little.

Trust in your scouting department and it could pay off big time.

 

[Boondock]

In 1970 there were 14 teams the talent pool was much smaller and it was a different game. There were 4 teams that had over 90 points that year. It was a case of the haves and the have nots. Only 6 of the 14 teams had a positive goal dif. Today that number is 18 of the 31. The game is different but speed only goes so far in balancing the game out. The Cap has evened the team out when it comes to top talent. Your 100% correct about the dynasty teams just feasting on the expansion teams. The expansion of Euros into the league kept up for a while as expansion continued but now many of the bottom 6 players can not compete with the top talent yet they garner millions each year and the level of play is not as good as the smaller league provided once the Euros and American players developed. The 80's was my favorite decade there was still a physical game and win lose or tie. I suppose people wanted to see fast skaters but the number of fast skaters with the skill of McDavid, Point, Barzal and a handful of others in the league now diminishes the game as a whole for this old fan.

In the 70's players would take a leave of absence from their saw mill job to play hockey from Sept.-May.
Players smoked on the bench and used the pre-season to get back into shape. Today players have highly specialized training from an early age. They train year round and the talent level even in the bottom 6 is much higher than it was in the 70-80's. If you prefer that era of hockey that's fine, but to say the talent pool is weaker now would be inaccurate to say the least. I have been showing my boys highlights from the historical greats of every era and some of the game play is comical to watch.

 

[Boondock]

Give me a 40 year old Gordy Howe to any of these fast kids now.

Howe is a generational talent, not exactly an example of the typical 70's NHLer

 

[Riseonfire]

On the flip side, this will be a crazy "he was drafted WHERE?" year if talent slips due to lack of scouting.

 

[57special]

Howe is a generational talent, not exactly an example of the typical 70's NHLer

he actually started playing hockey in the 40's, so that's another strike against him being a typical 70's player.

 

[Boondock]

he actually started playing hockey in the 40's, so that's another strike against him being a typical 70's player.

The comment was I'd rather have Howe at 40, which technically would be in 1968-69 but close enough to 1970 that the point stands.

 

[2 others]

This effects not only 2021, but many more years down the line.
If there was no covid, and we would be able to compare this scenario with a non-covid scenario, there will be less skill through the coming drafts and the generation of players growing up now. Covid had an effect on peewee as much as the adult leagues. Hell, even beer-league players suffer from this.

You can't catch up on development that is lost since the start of the pandemic.

Take a player like McDavid for example, imagine him having to sit due to the covid restrictions at the age of 8, or 12, or whatever, and not being able to play hockey for a year (or at least much less hockey). Don't you think it would have effected his development? Would he be as good as he is now?

 

[McJedi]

Agreed send all 2021 picks to my team please

Sure thing. Just send all your 2022 picks to my team.

done and done.

 

[LTIR Trickery]

You're right, your picks are awful and hold no value, please be sure to send them to Tampa.

 

[zcaptain]

I would think that sitting with the 10-20 pick area, might be a very nice area this year, as there will be prospects that might be slightly mis-placed on some ranking charts, and will be missed in the top 10.

But, if you believe in your scouting department, you may want to acquire some additional 2 and 3rd round picks.

IMO, the problem will be getting your pick right, not that there will be less good players............................

You could see a team coming out of this draft with 4 or 5 good players in 5 years, once everybody has had a chance to develop. Conversely, other teams will have nothing to show for it. Certainly more volatile.

 

[glenbuis]

If any teams have extra picks they would like to get rid of please send them to Pittsburgh !!!

In Montreal we have a few extra . Be willing to swap 2 or 3 2021 picks for 2 or 3 2022 picks .

 

[LazyCircuits]

I actually think this will make draft day far more exciting.

There may be very little consensus on the top 10 or top 30 compared to normal. This means that a team who is super hot on a guy might be more relaxed to wait for them to fall in the knowledge that others may not value the player as much. Conversely, others might be more inclined to trade up because they are truly certain about one guy and they don’t want to risk relying on a lesser known options. Finally, some GMs might say, we know talent is there somewhere so more picks is a no brainier and trade down to acquire extras. (Trading #24 for #29 and #35 could be a very smart move).

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

Makes it doubly funny that Bergevin went all in on mid round draft picks for this year

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

In Montreal we have a few extra . Be willing to swap 2 or 3 2021 picks for 2 or 3 2022 picks .

Nah, I'd rather keep the 2022 picks!!

 

[kthx]

I would expect a draft year of steals coming.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Honestly. This forum was talking about Auston Matthews 2 years before his draft date. Nothing changed. He was number 1 just like he was projected two years prior. So I think Scouts have the ability to evaluate players during this pandemic.

Yes and no. It will be harder to see as many players as in previous years, we could see a lot more kids slip through the proverbial cracks. It also might be trickier to see development with a shorter season. Scouts will still have reports on the top prospects of course, just not ones that are as thorough as in other years.