Proposal: Hypothetical Rebuild 4: The Defense

[Retire91]

Let Quincey walk, never should have been here to begin with
Trade Smith, I think someone will give up a pick for him
Find a way to get rid of Ericsson

 

[Frk It]

I look at the defense like this:

- Kronwall is set in stone, obviously
- DeKeyser stays because obviously
- Ericsson is set in stone due to contract
- Marchenko stays because he provides reliable and steady bottom pair defense at a cheap price
- Green stays because he's on a reasonable contract for what he brings

So that's 5/7 roster spots spoken for.

Knowing Holland, you're probably right.

But it shouldn't be set in stone, at all. As long as these guys comprise 5/7 of your defense, it's gonna be mediocre at best.

Our defense is redundant and devoid of talent.

 

[The Zermanator]

Knowing Holland, you're probably right.

But it shouldn't be set in stone, at all. As long as these guys comprise 5/7 of your defense, it's gonna be mediocre at best.

Our defense is redundant and devoid of talent.

Oh yeah, I definitely agree. I think I've been pretty vocal about wanting some fundamental changes to this D.

And you're completely right, you can only squeeze so much out of this group and I think we've been at that point for a while.

Teams with the Suters, Keiths, Doughtys, etc better appreciate what they have. An elite dman who can patrol the ice for literally half the game if needed are such an incredible asset. I don't have anymore than pipe dreams of acquiring a player like that but even a guy like Byfuglien would have done wonders.

As far as Ericsson and the other bad contracts go, I'd possibly look into leveraging Pulkkinen/Jurco/Sproul/Ouellet/Sheahan to move these contracts. Dangle Sheahan with Ericsson to a team with a ton of capspace that has a problem attracting FAs, would suck to lose Sheahan when he could still develop into something more but I think more can be gained by dumping Ericsson in that scenario. At the very least, would allow for a Quincey re-signing.

 

[Frk It]

Oh yeah, I definitely agree. I think I've been pretty vocal about wanting some fundamental changes to this D.

And you're completely right, you can only squeeze so much out of this group and I think we've been at that point for a while.

Teams with the Suters, Keiths, Doughtys, etc better appreciate what they have. An elite dman who can patrol the ice for literally half the game if needed are such an incredible asset. I don't have anymore than pipe dreams of acquiring a player like that but even a guy like Byfuglien would have done wonders.

As far as Ericsson and the other bad contracts go, I'd possibly look into leveraging Pulkkinen/Jurco/Sproul/Ouellet/Sheahan to move these contracts. Dangle Sheahan with Ericsson to a team with a ton of capspace that has a problem attracting FAs, would suck to lose Sheahan when he could still develop into something more but I think more can be gained by dumping Ericsson in that scenario. At the very least, would allow for a Quincey re-signing.

Shoot, I'd float any of Nyquist, Tatar, Sheahan, Athanasiou, Svechnikov out there for a defenseman if it lands a legitimate one.

 

[Reddwit]

I look at the defense like this:

- Kronwall is set in stone, obviously
- DeKeyser stays because obviously
- Ericsson is set in stone due to contract
- Marchenko stays because he provides reliable and steady bottom pair defense at a cheap price
- Green stays because he's on a reasonable contract for what he brings

So that's 5/7 roster spots spoken for.

At this point, the biggest part of my resentment of Ericsson's contract stems from the fact that it prevents us from re-signing Quincey to the same role. Quincey has developed tremendously the last few years and he plays Ericsson's intended role better than Ericsson does. DeKeyser-Quincey could easily be an elite shutdown 2nd pair in this league. Unfortunately, the realities of the cap world likely mean Quincey will have to move on.

Smith I would move for assets. Either for picks or as part of a package for a larger asset. I'm no Smith hater, he's worlds apart from the mistake-prone Smith of just a couple seasons ago. But he's a known quantity now. We've got multiple unknown quantities waiting for their shots in Ouellet, Russo, Sproul, and Jensen, with Saarijarvi on the way. Smith returns assets and opens a roster spot.

The #6 playing spot and #7 press box spot is a rotating set of the rookies mentioned above. The two best out of that group are on the NHL roster. The hot hand plays.

Leaves us with:

DeKeyser-Green
Kronwall-Marchenko
Ericsson-Russo
Ouellet/Sproul/Jensen

Allows for 3 L-R pairings which is nice.

But, I've said it before and I'll say it again. This D sees no improvement until someone comes in who can slot above every single guy we already have, pushing everyone down one spot on the depth chart. Ultimately, this D needs two things: 1. Some fat trimming, and 2. A dman better than anyone we have now.

Is it though?

Ericsson is tantamount to those big, dumb contracts that hulk-ish "stay-at-home" defenseman get in free agency. He's big, he's "physical" (lol, but you know the national media portrays him as such), he's Swedish ("great first pass"). If you retain $500k-1M on the guy, then there are going to be teams that can't resist. Especially teams that have trouble with free agent signings. Ericsson can't negate every trade possibility and a look-at-what-we-did-to-Kindl insinuation could inspire some collaboration.

As much as we aren't a big fan of him, I think a lot of teams would like him at $3.3M in a 4/5 role.

 

[The Zermanator]

Is it though?

Ericsson is tantamount to those big, dumb contracts that hulk-ish "stay-at-home" defenseman get in free agency. He's big, he's "physical" (lol, but you know the national media portrays him as such), he's Swedish ("great first pass"). If you retain $500k-1M on the guy, then there are going to be teams that can't resist. Especially teams that have trouble with free agent signings. Ericsson can't negate every trade possibility and a look-at-what-we-did-to-Kindl insinuation could inspire some collaboration.

As much as we aren't a big fan of him, I think a lot of teams would like him at $3.3M in a 4/5 role.

Well I certainly hope not. But hard to imagine it happening given Holland's track record.

 

[Reddwit]

I think it's something like a rumored 6x6 for Okposo and a bit more for Lucic, up to $7M.

Ideal scenario:

Move out one of Tatar+/Nyquist+ for Shattenkirk/Vatanen at the draft, move Smith and Howard ($1M retained), then sign Okposo. Walk from Q, Richards and Helm, promote from within, and sign 1 veteran gangbuster for the 4th line.

That it is more than ideal, I would call it a grand slam can't miss perfect offseason. I would Riverdance in the street out of pure joy. And I can't dance.

The scenario you described is not far-fetched, but it does require Holland to make a couple roster trades. Makes me skeptical.

Its really not though. Tatar has great stats for a guy making $2.75M. Anaheim's problem is cap, so sending them Tatar (especially when they can't afford ALL their young defenseman AND might not be able to retain Perron) is VERY feasible, especially if you throw in Jurco, who they could see as a "make up" move for getting rid of Palmieri and missing on Etem.

Moving on from Richards, Helm, and Q is obviously easy. Don't offer them competitive deals.

Moving Smith is also easy. Size is solid, skating is solid, feistiness is there, has a fighting record, versatile, cheap deal, and (maybe the best thing since most GMs can't seem to resist it) he's a former 1st rounder.

Moving Howard is probably the hardest thing, but when you consider what is out there for $4M, and his worst year coincides with the Wings (potentially) missing the playoffs, then a GM might be more optimistic. I should've said the option should be there to retain $1.5M, which, if I'm honest, is necessary to move him. Howard at $3.8M is a very easy spin to a fanbase (like Calgary) in desperate need of a veteran goaltender righting the ship.

Signing Okposo is also a tough category, but Okposo, Ladd, and Lucic are kind of variants of one another, so you could hope that you could at least pen a competitive offer for one of them.

 

[Reddwit]

Well I certainly hope not. But hard to imagine it happening given Holland's track record.

Like I said in the Philly v. Detroit thread, I think we've seen a shift, however subtle in Holland's approach. He traded (WITH retention) a homegrown first rounder. He kept Larkin. He kept Athanasiou. Blashill is on record saying Mantha is arguably here to stay (which wouldn't be possible without Holland's approval). He did NOT sacrifice futures for secondary help at the deadline. He came out and made a statement that insinuated that a "rebuild may not be avoidable." And he's facing the opening of the new arena, which creates added pressure.

I'm not a big Holland fan but I think he's smart enough to know the tables have turned and he needs to adjust his attack.

 

[BinCookin]

Like I said in the Philly v. Detroit thread, I think we've seen a shift, however subtle in Holland's approach. He traded (WITH retention) a homegrown first rounder. He kept Larkin. He kept Athanasiou. Blashill is on record saying Mantha is arguably here to stay (which wouldn't be possible without Holland's approval). He did NOT sacrifice futures for secondary help at the deadline. He came out and made a statement that insinuated that a "rebuild may not be avoidable." And he's facing the opening of the new arena, which creates added pressure.

I'm not a big Holland fan but I think he's smart enough to know the tables have turned and he needs to adjust his attack.

I think this very well may be true!

 

[The Zermanator]

Like I said in the Philly v. Detroit thread, I think we've seen a shift, however subtle in Holland's approach. He traded (WITH retention) a homegrown first rounder. He kept Larkin. He kept Athanasiou. Blashill is on record saying Mantha is arguably here to stay (which wouldn't be possible without Holland's approval). He did NOT sacrifice futures for secondary help at the deadline. He came out and made a statement that insinuated that a "rebuild may not be avoidable." And he's facing the opening of the new arena, which creates added pressure.

I'm not a big Holland fan but I think he's smart enough to know the tables have turned and he needs to adjust his attack.

Maybe, but Kindl's contract doesn't compare to Ericsson's. Half the term and half the salary. Moving Ericsson is a whole other ballgame. And Ericsson is also much more integrated in the fabric of the 'Old Boys Club'. How many times has Ericsson deserved to sit yet he never gets scratched?

 

[HIFE]

Like I said in the Philly v. Detroit thread, I think we've seen a shift, however subtle in Holland's approach. He traded (WITH retention) a homegrown first rounder. He kept Larkin. He kept Athanasiou. Blashill is on record saying Mantha is arguably here to stay (which wouldn't be possible without Holland's approval). He did NOT sacrifice futures for secondary help at the deadline. He came out and made a statement that insinuated that a "rebuild may not be avoidable." And he's facing the opening of the new arena, which creates added pressure.

I'm not a big Holland fan but I think he's smart enough to know the tables have turned and he needs to adjust his attack.

Well said, Reddwit, I think it could be true as well.

And as others have posted a shift doesn't have to be based on making the PO's. I have my own weird sense about the streak and the new arena. The "streak" is being kept alive for Z and D. I don't think anyone else cares, certainly not "hockeytown". Hockeytown is in a coma. Joe Louis looks 1/2 empty every game, there is no hunger here for a Cup. The longing that brought championships in 97/98 is far gone, IMO. The Wings take such less importance around the city compared to the Tigers and Lions it's not even funny. Point being I think management has all the freedom to gamble on younger/cheaper players. If there's no accountability for failure here in Detroit then why not take some risks, push open our comfort zone. Fact is it would be harder to make this team any worse than better next season.

 

[Reddwit]

Maybe, but Kindl's contract doesn't compare to Ericsson's. Half the term and half the salary. Moving Ericsson is a whole other ballgame. And Ericsson is also much more integrated in the fabric of the 'Old Boys Club'. How many times has Ericsson deserved to sit yet he never gets scratched?

I'm not comparing Kindl's to Ericsson's. I'm suggesting there has been a shift in Holland's approach this year that could progress as the pressure to have a competitive team in the new arena builds. That shift, along with the pressure, could very well lead to unconventional moves by Holland's standards. Hence, a greater possibility that creative financing could see a guy like Ericsson moved than ever before.

 

[Frk It]

Blash on the defense:

"I just think our D corps is way better than that," Red Wings coach Jeff Blashill said. "We have six real good NHL defensemen and they have to play better on Thursday (in Columbus), and I think they will."

Yeah... I think that's crap.

 

[ap3x]

D corps has to play better...

 

[jaster]

Our defense is mediocre. We need a top pairing talent, and no one is gonna give us it. So we'll continue to slot guys in roles over their heads, and struggle to get out of our end. It is what it is at this point. Draft defenseman in round 1 and/or round 2 more often and hope for the best.

Yeah, that's basically it unfortunately. It's also why I am, just barely, in favor of keeping Smith (assuming we don't sign a top UFA dman in the offseason, in which case Smith should go). If we could get something decent for him, sure, move him, but I like him as a bottom-pairing guy who can rotate in and out of the lineup if we're working a prospect in.

Quincey has to walk, no doubt.

But having guys playing roles over their head is the frustrating reality, which is mostly due to not having that #1 defenseman.

#2/3 - Kronwall
#2/3 - Dekeyser
#3/4 - Green
#4/5 - Quincey
#4/5 - Ericsson
#5/6 - Marchenko
#5/6 - Smith
#6/7 - Ouellet/Russo

If you have a #1 D, and you jettison Quincey and Smith, suddenly just about everyone gets to slot in to roles that align with the lower half of their projections (well, my projections anyway, I'm sure not everyone will agree with the numbers above). Which is a very good thing for the team.

But even another #2/3 type could be made to work, at least to push almost everyone else down a spot where they belong. Having a top-3 of Kronwall, Dekeyser, and a guy on the Kronwall/Dekeyser level, plus Green as your #4 isn't the greatest, but it's better than what we have now.

 

[Frk It]

Yeah, that's basically it unfortunately. It's also why I am, just barely, in favor of keeping Smith (assuming we don't sign a top UFA dman in the offseason, in which case Smith should go). If we could get something decent for him, sure, move him, but I like him as a bottom-pairing guy who can rotate in and out of the lineup if we're working a prospect in.

Quincey has to walk, no doubt.

But having guys playing roles over their head is the frustrating reality, which is mostly due to not having that #1 defenseman.

#2/3 - Kronwall
#2/3 - Dekeyser
#3/4 - Green
#4/5 - Quincey
#4/5 - Ericsson
#5/6 - Marchenko
#5/6 - Smith
#6/7 - Ouellet/Russo

If you have a #1 D, and you jettison Quincey and Smith, suddenly just about everyone gets to slot in to roles that align with the lower half of their projections (well, my projections anyway, I'm sure not everyone will agree with the numbers above). Which is a very good thing for the team.

But even another #2/3 type could be made to work, at least to push almost everyone else down a spot where they belong. Having a top-3 of Kronwall, Dekeyser, and a guy on the Kronwall/Dekeyser level, plus Green as your #4 isn't the greatest, but it's better than what we have now.

I agree with you, although I am a bit alarmed at the decline of Kronwall this year. Almost would flop Dekeyser with him, and I've never even been that big on Dekeyser. Kronwall just really has been that bad.

And a #1 would fix a lot, I just don't know how realistic acquiring one is. I like a guy like Demers a lot as an option this summer, with the Stars having quite a bit of extra bodies on the back end with the acquisition of Russell at the deadline.

Right side of Demers-Green-Marchenko could be pretty solid, and finally give us 3 LH-RH pairings.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

I agree with you, although I am a bit alarmed at the decline of Kronwall this year. Almost would flop Dekeyser with him, and I've never even been that big on Dekeyser. Kronwall just really has been that bad.

And a #1 would fix a lot, I just don't know how realistic acquiring one is. I like a guy like Demers a lot as an option this summer, with the Stars having quite a bit of extra bodies on the back end with the acquisition of Russell at the deadline.

Right side of Demers-Green-Marchenko could be pretty solid, and finally give us 3 LH-RH pairings.

I don't know what there is to be alarmed about exactly? This has been a pretty constant rate of decline over the last three seasons. Yet the issue of out terrible defense has never been appropriately been addressed. Signing Mike Green was a great move, but that doesn't solve the other issues we have.

 

[Reddwit]

Blash on the defense:

"I just think our D corps is way better than that," Red Wings coach Jeff Blashill said. "We have six real good NHL defensemen and they have to play better on Thursday (in Columbus), and I think they will."

Yeah... I think that's crap.

We have six real NHL defenseman who would individually look good on a team with much better NHL defenseman to play with. That's what we have.

A bunch of Oduyas without any Seabrooks or Keiths (or even any Hammers).

 

[jaster]

I agree with you, although I am a bit alarmed at the decline of Kronwall this year. Almost would flop Dekeyser with him, and I've never even been that big on Dekeyser. Kronwall just really has been that bad.

And a #1 would fix a lot, I just don't know how realistic acquiring one is. I like a guy like Demers a lot as an option this summer, with the Stars having quite a bit of extra bodies on the back end with the acquisition of Russell at the deadline.

Right side of Demers-Green-Marchenko could be pretty solid, and finally give us 3 LH-RH pairings.

Yeah, I worry about Kronwall too. I want to believe injuries/his knees have really affected him and that a healthier Kronwall will be a better Kronwall, but maybe I'm being too optimistic. Time will tell.

I think, like most, that getting a true #1 via trade or free agency is pretty unlikely. Realistically, I think that 2nd tier-type dman, another #2 kinda guy, is what we should be hoping for. I like the idea of Demers. Do we have an idea of the likelihood Dallas re-signs him?

 

[BinCookin]

Yeah, I worry about Kronwall too. I want to believe injuries/his knees have really affected him and that a healthier Kronwall will be a better Kronwall, but maybe I'm being too optimistic. Time will tell.

I think, like most, that getting a true #1 via trade or free agency is pretty unlikely. Realistically, I think that 2nd tier-type dman, another #2 kinda guy, is what we should be hoping for. I like the idea of Demers. Do we have an idea of the likelihood Dallas re-signs him?

Dallas has a weak D. I imagine they resign him

 

[Sami]

I hope we go after Vatanen.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

Blash on the defense:

"I just think our D corps is way better than that," Red Wings coach Jeff Blashill said. "We have six real good NHL defensemen and they have to play better on Thursday (in Columbus), and I think they will."

Yeah... I think that's crap.

Well they certainly are better than how they looked last night, but not much better.

If you take out the "real good" part in his quote, i would say that's a very accurate assessment of his defense.

I imagine if you had an off the record conversation with Blashill, he would agree that the Wings blue line isn't good. Blashill might have been born at night, but it wasn't last night.

 

[Frk It]

I don't know what there is to be alarmed about exactly? This has been a pretty constant rate of decline over the last three seasons. Yet the issue of out terrible defense has never been appropriately been addressed. Signing Mike Green was a great move, but that doesn't solve the other issues we have.

I thought up to this year his decline was pretty gradual and mellow. I thought he was still more effective than most on here, as recently as last season.

But this season has been a pretty sharp downturn, and I don't even really see how that is debatable. I'm hoping that is mostly attributed to injuries, and a summer of rest could remedy that, but I'm definitely concerned.

 

[Bench]

I imagine if you had an off the record conversation with Blashill, he would agree that the Wings blue line isn't good.

I know, right? I mean, what else is he supposed to say? "These guys suck. Anyway, get out there and win some games, losers."

Wings have been outmatched on the blueline for years. Babcock covered it up with his system and elite Selke centers in their prime. Now that the prime years for those guys are over, including the #1 guy in Kronwall, it's getting harder to cover up how subpar the blueline really is.

 

[Frk It]

I think, like most, that getting a true #1 via trade or free agency is pretty unlikely. Realistically, I think that 2nd tier-type dman, another #2 kinda guy, is what we should be hoping for. I like the idea of Demers. Do we have an idea of the likelihood Dallas re-signs him?

Both he and Goligoski are UFA's this summer, and I don't see them keeping both as they can demand a good salary on the open market.

Goligoski wears a letter (A) so I have to imagine they are keeping him.

Also imagining they traded what they did for Russell with the assumption he's not just going to be a rental. They also have some prospects on the way.

We will see what happens there, just kind of hopeful Demers hits the market reading between the lines there.