Hypothetical question for the pro-tank crowd

[Reddwit]

Correct. Every season should be started with a legitimate attempt to improve. If the wheels fall off, sure do some asset management mid-season to get some futures. But actively building a loser from the onset? That's never something I'd advocate.

I'd fully a support a 16 ball lottery for the non-playoffs teams to pick draft order. 1-16
Then an 8 ball lottery for the 1st round losers 17-24
Then a 4 ball lottery for the 2nd round losers 24-28
Then a coin flip for the conf. finals losers 29/30
Runner up gets 31
Cup Champ gets 32

Don't overthink anything. With even odds for non-playoff teams it rewards those that push but just miss out and doesn't reward blatant tanking.

But like no one does that. Teams who tank aren’t middle of the road outfits - they’re already bad. And most often they’re bad due to things out of their control - key retirees or injuries, fleeing UFAs, etc.

 

[Retire91]

One could argue that they are with Seider and Edvinsson.

Yep our tank run is over, good luck trying to tank with those guys lol

 

[TheOtherOne]

There is no point in making minor adjustments for the short term.

This whole frickin thing is based on this ridiculous premise that GMs of bubble teams are intentionally making small tweaks to their rosters with the goal of winning like 3 more games and being a slightly better bubble team.

Nobody does that. Nobody is saying "we need to move up 3 points in the standings so we can get closer to a playoff spot at the expense of the future!" When GMs make moves they're trying to improve their team as a whole. Sometimes it fails, but that's the idea.

Yzerman didn't hire Perron and Kubalik and Chiarot and Maata because he was desperate to put us in 14th instead of 16th. He hired them because they were cheap enough to not hurt our future, and because they would help with our system, and our development as a team, and the development of our future stars. And because they might be around long enough to help us in a run if things fall into place. And because showing the league how we treat good players and what we do with them will hopefully convince other good players that they will want to come here later on. And in some cases, so we can flip them for free extra draft picks.

Whether or not they accomplish those things is a crapshoot. Some guys work out. Some don't. Shit happens. The NHL is hard. If we had a crystal ball we wouldn't be having these conversations.

 

[14ari13]

I did not have time to read the whole thread so I don't know if anyone mentioned this.
I think we have been very unlucky with the schedule as we played
1. Either teams red hot
2. Or teams desperate for a win
I think this scheduled losses have cost us 5-10 points.

 

[wingfan]

The problem is our bottom out rebuild window happened too late for actual franchise changing impact players like Mackinnon, McDavid, etc and too early for Bedard. Outside of Makar, have we really missed out on talent drafted ahead of us that would put us in a position to be a contender? 2017/2018 was inept drafting/scouting. 2019 we took a player that would probably be the 2nd overall pick in a redraft. 2020, I would take Raymond over the top 2 picks in the draft. 2021, jury is still out but outside of Beniers, I don't think you can say we've necessarily missed out due to draft position, and 2022 it's the same case. The level of talent in the picks of ahead of us isn't really any more impactful than what we took at our respective draft position, the problem is that it really seems like our tank years just don't have the high end talent that other drafts do. You have one elite, top of the NHL player in Makar and two potential perennial all stars in Hughes and Dahlin. These drafts weren't loaded with the likes of McDavid, Eichel, Mackinnon, Draisaitl, Matthews, Barkov, McAvoy, Hanafin, Marner, Rantanen, etc.

 

[Winger98]

The problem is our bottom out rebuild window happened too late for actual franchise changing impact players like Mackinnon, McDavid, etc and too early for Bedard. Outside of Makar, have we really missed out on talent drafted ahead of us that would put us in a position to be a contender? 2017/2018 was inept drafting/scouting. 2019 we took a player that would probably be the 2nd overall pick in a redraft. 2020, I would take Raymond over the top 2 picks in the draft. 2021, jury is still out but outside of Beniers, I don't think you can say we've necessarily missed out due to draft position, and 2022 it's the same case. The level of talent in the picks of ahead of us isn't really any more impactful than what we took at our respective draft position, the problem is that it really seems like our tank years just don't have the high end talent that other drafts do. You have one elite, top of the NHL player in Makar and two potential perennial all stars in Hughes and Dahlin. These drafts weren't loaded with the likes of McDavid, Eichel, Mackinnon, Draisaitl, Matthews, Barkov, McAvoy, Hanafin, Marner, Rantanen, etc.

I'd also point out that Mackinnon and Rantanen are the only ones in that group to win a cup, and it took 9 years before Mackinnon had a good enough team around him to pull it off. Stamkos was drafted in 08, Hedman in 09, and TB didn't win a cup until 2019.

We should probably hope to have a playoff team here in a year or two, but Cup contending? That still being six or seven years out shouldn't be shocking.

 

[Retire91]

This whole frickin thing is based on this ridiculous premise that GMs of bubble teams are intentionally making small tweaks to their rosters with the goal of winning like 3 more games and being a slightly better bubble team.

Nobody does that. Nobody is saying "we need to move up 3 points in the standings so we can get closer to a playoff spot at the expense of the future!" When GMs make moves they're trying to improve their team as a whole. Sometimes it fails, but that's the idea.

Yzerman didn't hire Perron and Kubalik and Chiarot and Maata because he was desperate to put us in 14th instead of 16th. He hired them because they were cheap enough to not hurt our future, and because they would help with our system, and our development as a team, and the development of our future stars. And because they might be around long enough to help us in a run if things fall into place. And because showing the league how we treat good players and what we do with them will hopefully convince other good players that they will want to come here later on. And in some cases, so we can flip them for free extra draft picks.

Whether or not they accomplish those things is a crapshoot. Some guys work out. Some don't. Shit happens. The NHL is hard. If we had a crystal ball we wouldn't be having these conversations.

Yeah but adding Perron and Kubalik and Chiarot and Maata to a team that doesn't have a core is going to result in 31 to like 27. Its an example of making a bad team slightly less bad for absolutely no gain. You add Perron and Kubalik and Chiarot and Maata when you have an actual core. I would say it was a season or two too soon. Its not a big deal management wanted to not be last anymore. But statistically all it did was give us better odds on a worse draft pick.

 

[TheOtherOne]

Yeah but adding Perron and Kubalik and Chiarot and Maata to a team that doesn't have a core is going to result in 31 to like 27. Its an example of making a bad team slightly less bad for absolutely no gain. You add Perron and Kubalik and Chiarot and Maata when you have an actual core. I would say it was a season or two too soon. Its not a big deal management wanted to not be last anymore. But statistically all it did was give us better odds on a worse draft pick.

Yea I don't think you understand that SOMEBODY HAS TO PLAY those positions.

What are the other options?

A: put even better players there instead? Okay, I think any GM would if he could.
B: intentionally grab even worse ufas? First of all a lot of people would argue in at least Chiarot's case that we actually did that, so mission accomplished I guess? Second of all, that seems like a great way to get fired by the owners. Third of all, do you really want to force our promising young players to play on lines with the worst crap we can dig up? That's a good way to get them to leave as soon as they can.
C: I guess your preferred option is probably to play underripe AHLers. Great way to run their development. We've seen it happen. I want them to learn the game the right way, not trot them out to get destroyed for a year until they have no confidence and get completely burned out before they've even started.

 

[ricky0034]

The problem is our bottom out rebuild window happened too late for actual franchise changing impact players like Mackinnon, McDavid, etc and too early for Bedard. Outside of Makar, have we really missed out on talent drafted ahead of us that would put us in a position to be a contender? 2017/2018 was inept drafting/scouting. 2019 we took a player that would probably be the 2nd overall pick in a redraft. 2020, I would take Raymond over the top 2 picks in the draft. 2021, jury is still out but outside of Beniers, I don't think you can say we've necessarily missed out due to draft position, and 2022 it's the same case. The level of talent in the picks of ahead of us isn't really any more impactful than what we took at our respective draft position, the problem is that it really seems like our tank years just don't have the high end talent that other drafts do. You have one elite, top of the NHL player in Makar and two potential perennial all stars in Hughes and Dahlin. These drafts weren't loaded with the likes of McDavid, Eichel, Mackinnon, Draisaitl, Matthews, Barkov, McAvoy, Hanafin, Marner, Rantanen, etc.

bit of a tangent that's ultimately meaningless to the overall post but it's hilarious to see people still pretending Hughes isn't an elite player even now

on another note I do think finishing slightly lower in 2017 could have made a big difference since even with their poor scouting that year the Wings were reportedly pretty high on Pettersson

 

[norrisnick]

bit of a tangent that's ultimately meaningless to the overall post but it's hilarious to see people still pretending Hughes isn't an elite player even now

on another note I do think finishing slightly lower in 2017 could have made a big difference since even with their poor scouting that year the Wings were reportedly pretty high on Pettersson

They didn't say Mo would be 1st overall in a redraft.

Hughes is legit (if fragile), but the impact gap between him and Mo isn't huge.

 

[ricky0034]

They didn't say Mo would be 1st overall in a redraft.

Hughes is legit (if fragile), but the impact gap between him and Mo isn't huge.

I mostly meant that Hughes is every bit as good as someone like Makar and at this point i'm just really wondering what he has to do for people to finally admit that

 

[norrisnick]

I mostly meant that Hughes is every bit as good as someone like Makar and at this point i'm just really wondering what he has to do for people to finally admit that

Stay healthy.

 

[lilidk]

Could draft lottery rules change before coming draft?. By current rules it's very hard to move couple spots up or down. I didn't like last changes they did

 

[norrisnick]

Could draft lottery rules change before coming draft?. By current rules it's very hard to move couple spots up or down. I didn't like last changes they did

No. Too late for that.

 

[Retire91]

Yea I don't think you understand that SOMEBODY HAS TO PLAY those positions.

What are the other options?

A: put even better players there instead? Okay, I think any GM would if he could.
B: intentionally grab even worse ufas? First of all a lot of people would argue in at least Chiarot's case that we actually did that, so mission accomplished I guess? Second of all, that seems like a great way to get fired by the owners. Third of all, do you really want to force our promising young players to play on lines with the worst crap we can dig up? That's a good way to get them to leave as soon as they can.
C: I guess your preferred option is probably to play underripe AHLers. Great way to run their development. We've seen it happen. I want them to learn the game the right way, not trot them out to get destroyed for a year until they have no confidence and get completely burned out before they've even started.

This team's core needs stand alone talent, there is no better way to find it then sink or swim call ups. If players can't self develop then they are not part of the long term core anyway, It's better to know sooner and have time to react a whole lot faster. I am not saying Larkin and Seider level fast, but someone that takes 5 years to develop to fill in on the 3rd line can be replaced by a UFA player when the real core is established. Their value is pretty marginal on that path. I am not saying just throw every prospect on the team but I think there is opportunity for them to come into a larger role. And just like Zadina find out who is just dead weight faster. This was my biggest complaint about the veteran wins the tie era. Players like fricken Jurco where everyone was like oh this guy is going to be good and feeling like we already had a spot filled once people like Cleary finally go away, And Nyquist and Tartar where people were already penciling in the next Zetterberg Daytsuk dynamic. Only to find out that actually oh by the way our prospect pool was not going to lead to a handing of a torch, the torch was going to go out, we just never knew it until the veterans were finally pried from Holland's grip.

I think when a team has zero expectation at playoffs trhere are a lot of things you can do with the roster and the wings did not full ytake advantage. Like taking on worse contracts for better futures, playing kids more, getting better odds at a pick. I am not saying we did horrible, I am just saying we did not maximize.

 

[13to40]

Was definitely hoping to squeak into the playoffs this year with all the off season acquisitions, but this is definitely the season to be lousy. The draft is so strong. I wouldn’t at all mind being sellers at the deadline and acquiring a few more picks. Any pick in the top 10 this year has the team acquiring an exciting player

 

[Revenge of Gru]

I'd also point out that Mackinnon and Rantanen are the only ones in that group to win a cup, and it took 9 years before Mackinnon had a good enough team around him to pull it off. Stamkos was drafted in 08, Hedman in 09, and TB didn't win a cup until 2019.

We should probably hope to have a playoff team here in a year or two, but Cup contending? That still being six or seven years out shouldn't be shocking.

The problem is that we haven't yet drafted Hedman, Stamkos or MacKinnon. Overall the last 4 years have been largely squandered.. Rebuild 2.0 seems inevitable.

 

[SoupNazi]

The problem is that we haven't yet drafted Hedman, Stamkos or MacKinnon. Overall the last 4 years have been largely squandered.. Rebuild 2.0 seems inevitable.

What do you have to say about the four years before that?

 

[Pavels Dog]

When you have legit top talent then start building around the core.

And how do you know?

Take the 2023 draft for example. Say we went all-in on the tank. And finished last (nearly impossible, but let's imagine it). And we lose the lottery and get the #3OA pick.

Bedard goes #1, Michkov goes #2. Who do you pick? And are you so sure THAT player is "legit top talent" that you can start building?
Or do you tank another year? Even if we drafted Michkov, he's maybe 4-5 years away. More tanking until then? Or building and waiting?

When? When do you know it's the right time?

 

[Retire91]

And how do you know?

Take the 2023 draft for example. Say we went all-in on the tank. And finished last (nearly impossible, but let's imagine it). And we lose the lottery and get the #3OA pick.

Bedard goes #1, Michkov goes #2. Who do you pick? And are you so sure THAT player is "legit top talent" that you can start building?
Or do you tank another year? Even if we drafted Michkov, he's maybe 4-5 years away. More tanking until then? Or building and waiting?

When? When do you know it's the right time?

I don't know I think this is the point where we might cross into agreement. At some point you need to stop tanking, you can't just perpetually tank. This is the biggest misunderstanding I feel that gets aimed our way. I am not in favor of tanking for 6 years and being like it didn't work so let's tank again. What I am in favor of is when you tank, tank "hard" We had the opportunity to tank harder than any team in NHL history. We didn't and I would say its was a missed opportunity. We didn't really tank even, we were organically that bad after Holland.

I am not pro more thanking, I am we should have tanked more seriously. I would have went for the bottom this season for sure if I was GM. We didn't and we move on. Now we just look for the other types of talent acquisition which thankfully Yzerman is good at. Not to take the thread in another direction but I don't really trust Chris to open the check book when it comes to UFA building. Which is another reason I really wanted to hit in the draft. We also really needed to make up for Zadina's bust. I just wish we would have done more with the window of time. There is not a season in the past 5 or 6 seasons I give a ratts butt about if we were a couple of positions up. We were not a competitive team anyway so it didn't matter.

 

[norrisnick]

I don't know I think this is the point where we might cross into agreement. At some point you need to stop tanking, you can't just perpetually tank. This is the biggest misunderstanding I feel that gets aimed our way. I am not in favor of tanking for 6 years and being like it didn't work so let's tank again. What I am in favor of is when you tank, tank "hard" We had the opportunity to tank harder than any team in NHL history. We didn't and I would say its was a missed opportunity. We didn't really tank even, we were organically that bad after Holland.

I am not pro more thanking, I am we should have tanked more seriously. I would have went for the bottom this season for sure if I was GM. We didn't and we move on. Now we just look for the other types of talent acquisition which thankfully Yzerman is good at. Not to take the thread in another direction but I don't really trust Chris to open the check book when it comes to UFA building. Which is another reason I really wanted to hit in the draft. We also really needed to make up for Zadina's bust. I just wish we would have done more with the window of time. There is not a season in the past 5 or 6 seasons I give a ratts butt about if we were a couple of positions up. We were not a competitive team anyway so it didn't matter.

So, if we are talking post Holland.
'19 draft position was already set. We got Seider. Any issues picking him at 6?

We then finished dead last. Lost the lottery. Any issues with picking Raymond at 4?

We finished 4th from bottom. Lost the lottery. Any issues with Edvinsson at 6? Who did we miss out on here? Pre-draft Ed was in that mix of guys from 2-10. And #1 Power, I don't think is going to be much better than what Ed's ceiling is himself. So there really wasn't anything missed here.

We finished 8th from the bottom. Lost the lottery. Any issues with Kasper at 8? No one in the top 10 is having a bigger D+1 than Kasper is. I'm perfectly content with him. Only way we finish lower is if we keep Ray and Mo out of the lineup. That doesn't help our future.

I don't really see a way we could have tanked more seriously without hurting what we're trying to build on.

 

[Gniwder]

Not to take the thread in another direction but I don't really trust Chris to open the check book when it comes to UFA building.

I think it's a relevant topic considering we're talking about tanking.

NHL is a hard cap league, I have no doubt Chris will spend to the cap as long as he's making money. He'll sell more beer with a capacity crowd.

 

[Revenge of Gru]

So, if we are talking post Holland.
'19 draft position was already set. We got Seider. Any issues picking him at 6?

We then finished dead last. Lost the lottery. Any issues with picking Raymond at 4?

We finished 4th from bottom. Lost the lottery. Any issues with Edvinsson at 6? Who did we miss out on here? Pre-draft Ed was in that mix of guys from 2-10. And #1 Power, I don't think is going to be much better than what Ed's ceiling is himself. So there really wasn't anything missed here.

We finished 8th from the bottom. Lost the lottery. Any issues with Kasper at 8? No one in the top 10 is having a bigger D+1 than Kasper is. I'm perfectly content with him. Only way we finish lower is if we keep Ray and Mo out of the lineup. That doesn't help our future.

I don't really see a way we could have tanked more seriously without hurting what we're trying to build on.

I don't think we should perpetually tank. I just wish we would have decisions made that prove to be exceptional.

 

[Revenge of Gru]

What do you have to say about the four years before that?

Not great but I thought we gutted the org and hired Yzerman to fix that.

 

[Oddbob]

I don't know I think this is the point where we might cross into agreement. At some point you need to stop tanking, you can't just perpetually tank. This is the biggest misunderstanding I feel that gets aimed our way. I am not in favor of tanking for 6 years and being like it didn't work so let's tank again. What I am in favor of is when you tank, tank "hard" We had the opportunity to tank harder than any team in NHL history. We didn't and I would say its was a missed opportunity. We didn't really tank even, we were organically that bad after Holland.

I am not pro more thanking, I am we should have tanked more seriously. I would have went for the bottom this season for sure if I was GM. We didn't and we move on. Now we just look for the other types of talent acquisition which thankfully Yzerman is good at. Not to take the thread in another direction but I don't really trust Chris to open the check book when it comes to UFA building. Which is another reason I really wanted to hit in the draft. We also really needed to make up for Zadina's bust. I just wish we would have done more with the window of time. There is not a season in the past 5 or 6 seasons I give a ratts butt about if we were a couple of positions up. We were not a competitive team anyway so it didn't matter.

What do you mean? The 20-21 season we were literally on worse than the 14-15 Avs season pace and were dead last by a lot. We did tank as hard as you could and got lucky that losing the lottery got us Raymond who is better than Lafreniere. Last year and this year, the bottom teams were especially bad, and we still finished low last year, and are pretty low right now.