Hypothetical question for the pro-tank crowd

[Oddbob]

I don't think we should perpetually tank. I just wish we would have decisions made that prove to be exceptional.

Such as? What other realistic moves could have been made? The more pro tank crowd always say they wish better moves were made but then never suggest even one move that we realistically could have done different. Signing Copp, Perron and Chiarot simply gave us better than AHL scraps in our lineup. Perron and Copp have always been support pieces on any team they have been on, not major pieces, and Chiarot has at best been a solid #4 for Mtl for a small window of time after being a 6/7 guy for WPG before that. None of those really pull us one way or the other in the standings, they simply give us better options that Stecher and co to play and not get blown out 6-2 all the time which is bad for all players young and old.

 

[Oddbob]

Not great but I thought we gutted the org and hired Yzerman to fix that.

If you can't see the difference Yzerman has made in his short time as GM in Detroit, no amount of people telling you anything is going to suffice. He over-hauled the scouting department, he let and got rid of a bunch of bad Holland deals, while taking on short term risks with minimal assets spent on trying to turn the ship around. The prospect cupboard is better by a lot than what Holland had drafted at the end. There is lots of things that have us looking much better than before he came back to Detroit. Even his "longer" term deals aren't that crippling as Chiarot only has 3 more years left and is easily sent to the AHL if it came to it. Copp is making about what 40 pt 2 way players make nowadays and the cap is going up as well.

 

[Retire91]

So, if we are talking post Holland.
'19 draft position was already set. We got Seider. Any issues picking him at 6?

We then finished dead last. Lost the lottery. Any issues with picking Raymond at 4?

We finished 4th from bottom. Lost the lottery. Any issues with Edvinsson at 6? Who did we miss out on here? Pre-draft Ed was in that mix of guys from 2-10. And #1 Power, I don't think is going to be much better than what Ed's ceiling is himself. So there really wasn't anything missed here.

We finished 8th from the bottom. Lost the lottery. Any issues with Kasper at 8? No one in the top 10 is having a bigger D+1 than Kasper is. I'm perfectly content with him. Only way we finish lower is if we keep Ray and Mo out of the lineup. That doesn't help our future.

I don't really see a way we could have tanked more seriously without hurting what we're trying to build on.

I would have traded Bertuzzi, and not loaded up on FA this year. I would have shopped harder to take on a bad contract for a pick or prospect, not small potatoes go big here. I would continue to tank until Kasper hits the roster and then go all in on climbing the standings. I am not saying it didn't work out, I am just saying there were some things left on the table and there was still room to load up. Those UFA may have been slightly better than AHL but they were slightly better enough to move us out of best odds for absolutely no tangible gain to the short or long term.

 

[norrisnick]

I would have traded Bertuzzi, and not loaded up on FA this year. I would have shopped harder to take on a bad contract for a pick or prospect, not small potatoes go big here. I would continue to tank until Kasper hits the roster and then go all in on climbing the standings. I am not saying it didn't work out, I am just saying there were some things left on the table and there was still room to load up. Those UFA may have been slightly better than AHL but they were slightly better enough to move us out of best odds for absolutely no tangible gain to the short or long term.

That would do more harm to the kids we already have than any possible benefit. You can't subject guys as driven as Mo and Raymond to an absolute shit show. Last year was bad enough. You have to improve or you take away from what they can and should become. And that's not even taking into account the strides made by Hronek, Rasmussen, Veleno, and Berggren along with the bit we saw of Soderblom.

You can't cut kids off at the knees and then expect them to run at some undetermined date in the future when you think you have whatever piece you were waiting for.

 

[Roy S]

If anything, I think Chiarot has hurt Seider’s development and he’d have had a better season if that signing was never made. Bertuzzi and Vrana barely played all year so I don’t think trading them when their value was higher would have harmed Raymond and Seider’s development.

I’m not sure how much of that would actually have impacted the standings- maybe a few spots. Short of trading Larkin, there was nothing that could be done to really tank like Chicago or Columbus and I think trading Larkin would have been a mistake. I think Perron was a really good signing assuming he’s eventually flipped for a pick. Short term signings like that are always good because you basically use your cap space to eventually turn it into a quality draft pick or prospect.I do think signing Chiarot and Copp was a mistake and there were plenty of critics at the time of those signings.

It would be franchise altering to get Bedard or even someone like Fantilli. So, I do hope the Wings at least position themselves in the bottom 11 to give themselves some chance of those outcomes and that they sell several pending UFA’s at the deadline since the playoffs are a long shot. This is the first draft since 2019 where it looks like there is actually an elite center at the top of the draft.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I would have traded Bertuzzi, and not loaded up on FA this year. I would have shopped harder to take on a bad contract for a pick or prospect, not small potatoes go big here. I would continue to tank until Kasper hits the roster and then go all in on climbing the standings.

Just pretend we dumped Vrana and took on Chiarot as two tanking moves. Bertuzzi has been a non-factor this season and will probably be traded.

What I'm trying to say is the difference between your suggestions and the reality may not be such massively different scenarios.

Also the "pick or prospect for bad contract" scenarios really need to be specific. Like, which contract. For what return. Because if a team hasn't moved a bad contract it means they didn't need to. You can't just imagine that those trades are out there if you "shop harder", that's not how cap dump trades work.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I’m not sure how much of that would actually have impacted the standings- maybe a few spots. Short of trading Larkin, there was nothing that could be done to really tank like Chicago or Columbus and I think trading Larkin would have been a mistake.

It's debatable if even trading Larkin would have been enough. People need to look at the defense that Chicago, Columbus and Anaheim are running and question if you can compete with that level of suck if you are running a Walman-Seider top pairing and a Edvinsson-Hronek 2nd pairing (with no FA signings).

If we took a flamethrower to the team and let Brättström be the starter all season, sure, we could tank. But I don't think any of the players, coaches, front office or ownership would find that acceptable, nor would the vast majority of fans.

 

[pz29]

All this talk about Bedard is pointless. You all know that we will pick in the 6-9 range again, by which point he will be long gone. Even if we somehow ended up in the lottery, Bettman and co would make sure we¨d never win it.

 

[SoupNazi]

If you can't see the difference Yzerman has made in his short time as GM in Detroit, no amount of people telling you anything is going to suffice.

This poster has an ax to grind with Yzerman.

 

[wingfan]

bit of a tangent that's ultimately meaningless to the overall post but it's hilarious to see people still pretending Hughes isn't an elite player even now

on another note I do think finishing slightly lower in 2017 could have made a big difference since even with their poor scouting that year the Wings were reportedly pretty high on Pettersson

I was strictly talking about the talent taken in front of us.

 

[jkutswings]

So, if we are talking post Holland.
'19 draft position was already set. We got Seider. Any issues picking him at 6?

We then finished dead last. Lost the lottery. Any issues with picking Raymond at 4?

We finished 4th from bottom. Lost the lottery. Any issues with Edvinsson at 6? Who did we miss out on here? Pre-draft Ed was in that mix of guys from 2-10. And #1 Power, I don't think is going to be much better than what Ed's ceiling is himself. So there really wasn't anything missed here.

We finished 8th from the bottom. Lost the lottery. Any issues with Kasper at 8? No one in the top 10 is having a bigger D+1 than Kasper is. I'm perfectly content with him. Only way we finish lower is if we keep Ray and Mo out of the lineup. That doesn't help our future.

I don't really see a way we could have tanked more seriously without hurting what we're trying to build on.

Awesome post.

I think this season is the first under Yzerman's watch where Detroit could have done something that MIGHT result in a better draft outcome.

It's also still mathematically possible that tanking another year would've still resulted in a lottery loss, dropping to 4 or 5, while the approach they took still manages to catch a lottery miracle and they land a top 3 pick. We just don't know (yet).

But ultimately all of this hinges on landing at least one superstar, and each fan's confidence in Detroit managing to do so via different approaches. Here's why my panic meter is still at zero:

* I think Seider has what it takes to develop into a superstar.
* I think Detroit has a scouting program that's good enough to possibly land a superstar in this draft, even if they don't pick in the top 3.
* I think Yzerman is a smart GM. So while he's certainly not immune to mistakes, he's also fully dedicated to using any opportunities he can to continue to improve the roster. So even if they end up drafting a playoff team that's not good enough to seriously contend, he will keep exploring trades and signings until they've reshaped that team into a contender.

If there's anything I have a little urgency with, it's wanting next season to include a better performance from the coaching staff, both on line pairings and offensive strategy. That gets easier as talent trickles in, but the stubborn nonsense like Seider-Chiarot needs to stop.

 

[Oddbob]

I would have traded Bertuzzi, and not loaded up on FA this year. I would have shopped harder to take on a bad contract for a pick or prospect, not small potatoes go big here. I would continue to tank until Kasper hits the roster and then go all in on climbing the standings. I am not saying it didn't work out, I am just saying there were some things left on the table and there was still room to load up. Those UFA may have been slightly better than AHL but they were slightly better enough to move us out of best odds for absolutely no tangible gain to the short or long term.

They did nothing in the realm of loading up. Loading up would have been going after players like Johnny Gaudreau, not second tier players like Copp.

 

[Retire91]

Just pretend we dumped Vrana and took on Chiarot as two tanking moves. Bertuzzi has been a non-factor this season and will probably be traded.

What I'm trying to say is the difference between your suggestions and the reality may not be such massively different scenarios.

Also the "pick or prospect for bad contract" scenarios really need to be specific. Like, which contract. For what return. Because if a team hasn't moved a bad contract it means they didn't need to. You can't just imagine that those trades are out there if you "shop harder", that's not how cap dump trades work.

Yeah its not an incitement on the organization that it didn't happen because of all the factors you mentioned. The stars have to align. First of all the window is closed I wouldn't do it now unless its literally like only one or two years. Second Illich has to be willing to eat the finances which he may not be willing to buy a pick like that. Third you have to find the dance partner as you mentioned. And we even did to some degree do this with Staal although it was a more minor hit. Back in the beginning we literally could have took on any of the most horrendous contacts in the NHL no problem. I am sure conversations were had, it just wasn't enough of a return or Illich flat out didn't want to eat it.

I also intentionally have left Larkin out of the conversation, IMO he has the longevity to stay with this core. Bertuzzi on the other hand I don't think it was hard to see we would have ended up where we are and he was literally an allstar that could have brought back a good piece.

I think the only argument for tanking hard is Holland just laterally left the team that bad. No matter what anyone did we would still have been a last place team. To me Yzerman's moves were not indicative of a tank hard strategy. We did tank but we tanked softly. However even losing the lottery Yzerman still knocked it out of the park. When Yzerman turns it on this team is going to improve quickly. I think we are mostly done with the intentionally sucking. I think a lot of criticisms on Yzerman are not accounting for the fact that vastly improving this team early would have drastically took us down a bad path.

 

[WaW]

These options aren't mutually exclusive.

The correct answer is "both"

 

[TheOctopusKid]

I think this idea that it's some binary choice between "Go all in!" vs. "Burn it all to the ground!" is an unfair and disingenuous framing of this debate.

I don't think anyone on these boards, sincerely believes that we should be doing either of those things to such an extreme degree, unless they are purposefully trolling or sensationalizing their opinion.

And I don't think there has been ANY ambiguity or deviation around Yzerman's approach and timeline. From day one, he said two things and has repeated them over and over again: this is going to take a while, and he's going to build the best hockey team that he can.