Heaton
Moderator
I think Marchenko has the heavy advantage of winning out of camp. He's older, was favored last year, and is right handed.
How to tank teams and alienate people.
- Thread starter HockeyinHD
- Start date
I think Marchenko has the heavy advantage of winning out of camp. He's older, was favored last year, and is right handed.
Heaton
Moderator
Yup. It's very possible we never got to see how good Sheahan could be, and it's possible we still don't know how good Sheahan is. That's why the lack of proactiveness is a huge issue with the way Holland handles the 'overripe' thing. It was one thing when the strength of the roster could support it. That support is almost retired.
Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
- Jul 27, 2010
- 36,314
- 14,810
Heavy advantage? Hm, we will see. I like Ouellet's odds myself. Marchenko looked lost against Tampa.
Kronwall-Smith/E
Dekeyser-Quincey
Ouellet-Smith/E
Is what I am expecting in my head.
Smith has been mediocre at best, Helm is fine but hardly a transformational improvement on anything (and people are already trying to run him out of town), XO's been plateaued for a couple years now and not been terribly impressive, and Abdelkader has just stepped up a bit this year.
You say these guys should have had NHL jobs sooner, yet when they got their NHL jobs they weren't very impressive in them... so, why the rush? Like I said, Nyquist coming in and performing well immediately is the only case I think it's fair to say an error was made in when the job was handed over, while all those other guys just came up and... existed.
37.74% EV 18 ANDERSSON,JOAKIM - 26 JURCO,TOMAS - 15 SHEAHAN,RILEY
23.9% EV 18 ANDERSSON,JOAKIM - 26 JURCO,TOMAS - 90 WEISS,STEPHEN
6.92% EV 18 ANDERSSON,JOAKIM - 29 FERRARO,LANDON - 20 MILLER,ANDREW
I disagree with your representation of his usage. He got some run with Sheahan but was primarily paired with Jurco (who was not on the third line) and spent nearly as much time with Weiss (also not on the third line) as he did with Sheahan.
Heck, Sheahan was essentially a 4th line forward for the playoffs. D, Z, Tatar, Nyquist, Abby, Helm, Miller and Glendening all played substantially more than him at ES. That's 8 guys.
So, essentially, Andersson (12th in ES IT/g) played primarily with Jurco (13th in ES IT/g) and mixed in with Sheahan (9th in ES IT/g) and Weiss (11th in ES IT/g). And his third most common lineup was with Ferraro (10th in ES IT/g).
#12 playing with 9, 10, 11 and 13. Not seeing the third line comparison there at all.
No, but seriously, why is Andersson in his 3rd pro year at age 26 a guy who has to get run out of town? I'm just trying to figure out where that switch flips. I get that he's nothing special, it's just interesting the speed at which the bloom is off the rose.
I'd be more happy if they actually earn them, as opposed to just graduating into them a la Kindl and Smith.
Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
- Jul 27, 2010
- 36,314
- 14,810
Smith earned his spot, he just didn't continue to progress afterwards like we had hoped.
He actually earned it a season earlier, but was kept off because there was no room. I believe Babcock wanted him a season earlier.
Heaton
Moderator
And if none of the kids 'earn it'? What does that say about the Wings prospect development? No trades, no signings, the kids aren't even that good. Yep, Holland is surely building a winner here.
Well, two spots are already taken up by players who I am sure people demanded be given spots also, in Kindl and Smith. Assuming there's a 3rd open spot this year, that means that of 7 likely dman spots fully 3 of them will be going to "prospects getting a chance".
I mean, it's pretty tough to complain that Holland isn't just throwing 4+ of 7 dman spots to raw kids, isn't it?
A) Of course he's lying. If Holland is going around telling the unvarnished truth about what his actual plans are on national TV or to reporters he's an idiot.
Do you guys not grok the upside of saying the thing he is saying publically? That by saying he plans on going with kids, even if this is a lie to beat all lies, that he adds at least a smidgeon of value to those kids during the eventuality of a trade negotiation?
"Hey other teams GM, interested in moving vet X for our prospects a b and c?"
"You mean those guys you said on national TV you didn't think were ready to be NHLers yet so you were going hard in FA? Those prospects?"
"Uh, yeah. Say, how's the family? Hello? Hello?"
And as a sub point, "giving kids a chance to make the roster" is not the same thing as "guaranteeing kids a spot on the roster regardless". I get the feeling that a lot of times people say the first thing but actually mean the second thing.
B) How many years did D or Z spend in the AHL? How many years did Kronwall spend there? Fil? Mrazek? The better players move through the system much more quickly. The borderline players bang around the minors longer. People kneejerk that so and so not coming up quickly means the organization doesn't want to give him a chance, when a whole bunch of the time it's just that so and so isn't really that great.
It's sort of a bummer because I wish this weren't so, but right now the most likely outcome is that Marachenko, Sproul, Ouellet, Jensen et al are just all 3rd pairing guys of no particular distinction. At best. That there simply isn't a dman in the system right now who could beat out Ericsson (or even Quincey) for a serious spot heads up.
If Holland brings those guys up and they demonstrate that, what's their trade value then?
Well, the starting goalie is likely to be different. That's sort of an important change.
The head coach is a different guy. That's sort of an important change.
Further, the contract situations are such that even though only 3 or 4 forward spots have turned over in the past year or so (which is still quite a bit), 4 guys are expirings heading into 2015-16 and Franzen is a year or two away from getting into the sunsetting portions of his payroll.
And further still, exactly how much of each roster has to be made up of guys who have 10+ years left in the league? Nyquist, Tatar, Sheahan, Andersson, Glendening, and Jurco are all 26 and under at forward. Abby and Helm are both 28. That's 8 of 13-14 spots well under 30 for goodness sake, and of the other 5 we have Datsyuk and Zetterberg.
2 or 3 forward spots (Weiss, Franzen, and Miller) and 1 or 2 dman spots (Quincey and ?) are filled by guys who aren't going to be Wings in 2020, and this is an issue?
I want to see the roster that is built the way you want the Wings built.
That it's still better than most other teams in the NHL, but not infallible.
No trades is fair. Haven't been many lately, and certainly no showy ones that you like.
No signings is unfair. Alfredsson, Weiss, Dekeyser. These are signings, yes?
Kids that aren't that good is also unfair. Tatar, Nyquist, Mrazek, Sheahan, Glendening.
Detroit's got a prospect weakness on the blue line. That's a bummer. They're very deep at forward and they're strong in goal. Going crazy about the failure in the first case without allowing similar weight to the successes in the other two is a pretty exacting standard.
Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
- Jul 27, 2010
- 36,314
- 14,810
It's not a rush. It's guys coming into camp and being one of our 12 best forwards or 6 best D. And they don't get rewarded for it. We ice a worse team, we reward worse play and, surprisingly, we have worse seasons.
And Sheahan was the third line center for the entire season. It was a mistake not using him as such, instead of using him as a slop line once the playoffs began. It was asking it to be mediocre, and it's what we got.
Though, isn't that what Holland is supposed to be aiming for? Mediocre enough to make the playoffs and haul in some extra cash every season?
And no one is running Andersson out of town.
If he was up earlier, maybe he progresses differently. Maybe he's used differently. Maybe he establishes some value and is able to be a larger part of a trade for someone else.
Not to mention fostering an environment where competition for roster spots is real. As long as they have stayed relatively healthy, there has been no reason for the bottom half of our lineup to feel any sort of threat at all from a kid who has waiver eligibility left.
And maybe all of those things turn out worse for him rather than as they did and he progresses slower, or regresses faster, or has a smaller role, or establishes less value and has no functionality in any trade at any time.
The notion that the grass would have been greener is a very facile one, easily applied to all situations in order to say something along the lines of I told you so, except absent the actual data to support it.
I can, with every bit of referent historical support present in the claim regarding Smith above, claim that Ken Holland perfectly timed the Nyquist situation because had he not made Nyquist wait those 46 days he would never have entered the NHL and made such an immediate splash. He could have come up and sputtered like he did in his two previous NHL stints, but since Holland so sagely held him back and allowed him to get on a tear in GR why, when he came up he just kept all that momentum going.
Are you buying that one?
So, who are those players anyway? Cleary didn't play, Sammy didn't play, Tootoo didn't play, Eaves didn't play, Legwand didn't stay... all while Sheahan, Glendening, and Andersson had pretty substantial and consistent roles on the team instead.
Honestly, the only guys I can think you'd be referring to are Miller and... I can't think of a second guy. Helm, maybe? Is there another bottom half forward who played poorly that hasn't had their IT slashed and/or their roster spot consumed by a kid already? Helm and Miller have been competent (at the very least) in those roles, so I don't know if its them you're talking about or someone else.
If an NBA's team five best players are all forwards, should that be their lineup?
If an NFL team has 3 good running backs, should they play the wishbone?
If an MLB team has five good outfielders, should they play the other two at 1st and 3rd?
There's best player, and then there's best fit. There's talent, and there is role. Those things are much more equal in importance than you seem to allow.
Tomas Tatar is a (much) better and (much) more talented player than Luke Glendening. In a situation where a defensive stop is of paramount importance I would rather have Glendening on the ice than Tatar. That exchange in role and responsibility happens a lot. Brian Rafalski was a really, really good dman. I'd rather Ericsson out on the ice for a PK each time and every time.
The thing is, you can't set yourself up to make that decision in the moment when you are composing a roster. You have to make sure you have a sufficient spread of different types of resources available so that, if possible, a coach can have some lineup and strategy flexibility when those situations arise.
If you stuff the roster with the 12 'best' forwards you're very likely only going to be able to play a very few types or styles of game. If you season talent on the roster with "grit" you allow yourself more options and greater ability to respond to specific game situations accordingly.
What that means is occasionally a "better" forward will get passed over for a "lesser" one. Sometimes it's a poor assessment of talent and choosing between similar players incorrectly for a similar role. Other times it is consciously choosing a player that is more limited in some aspect but more accomplished in a different, specific one.
"And Andersson was skating on what should have been our third line in the playoffs. "
By pointing out that in the playoffs he was skating mostly with Jurco (who should not have been on the third line) and then a fairly close split between Weiss (who should not have been on the third line) and Sheahan (who possibly should have been but possibly not) I was describing the things that led me to disagree with your quoted statement.
If you feel the third line should have been Jurco-Sheahan-Weiss, ok... but I'd totally disagree with that too.
The lines were mostly:
Helm-Datsyuk-Tatar
Abdelkader-Z-Nyquist
Miller-Glendening-Ferraro
Andersson-Sheahan-Jurco-Weiss
... with Sheahan getting a slight plurality of his IT time up between Nyquist and Tatar.
A) 28.99% EV 14 NYQUIST,GUSTAV - 15 SHEAHAN,RILEY - 21 TATAR,TOMAS
25.21% EV 18 ANDERSSON,JOAKIM - 26 JURCO,TOMAS - 15 SHEAHAN,RILEY
10.08% EV 41 GLENDENING,LUKE - 20 MILLER,ANDREW - 15 SHEAHAN,RILEY
5.04% EV 13 DATSYUK,PAVEL - 15 SHEAHAN,RILEY - 21 TATAR,TOMAS
B) He was third on the team in PP IT/g behind Abdelkader and Z.
I don't think he was exactly buried or stripped of offensive opportunity. He spent 34ish% of his ES IT up with Datsyuk, Nyquist and Tatar (and probably more when you work in the straggler combos), and spent 35ish% of his ES IT down with Andersson, Jurco, Glendenning and Miller (and probably more for the same reason).
That seems fair for a guy with a balanced skill set, right?
"His (Andersson's) minutes were limited because he sucks, but he was still out there. Until the Wings do differently, I don't see any reason to believe that, given the availability of the roster spot, the Wings won't just make a similar play this fall. Plop Andersson into the lineup..."
What's that, a seal of approval? He sucks and makes the sound 'plop' when his name is written on a lineup card?
Yes or no, you'd prefer Andersson off the roster for any other option (besides perhaps Cleary) sight unseen? All you know is that Andersson's gone, but Cleary's not replacing him. You'd say yes in like 3.8 seconds, right?
You're not reaching for the pitchfork, but you're not exactly hiding the torches either.
What we have is track record. What the wings do with their D hasn't produced a standout defenceman in how many years? The best young D that has came to Detroit is Dekeyser, and he played very few games in GR, largely jumping straight from college.
Do I think it's as simple as just throwing a guy into the NHL and he'll be better? No, of course not, but we haven't been without some well regarded blueline prospects, and none of them have yet to come close to expectations. Questioning the system isn't out of line at this point.
Even if they don't play, they take up the roster spot. They take up the cap space. as we saw with Nyquist being stuck in GR, we could't make a move to bring him up because we committed too much cap space to guys who stubbornly refused to be hurt as conveniently as we would have liked.
Loading the roster with White, Coliacavo (sp?), Huskins, Commodore, Lashoff, CLeary, samuelsson, May, Tootoo, Bertuzzi, etc. while leaving no room for players to come to camp to earn a spot has nothing to do with fit. Throughout the past five years, the Wings relied more on old, broken down players breaking down to justify call-ups, than they have on actual roster management and judging the readiness of their prospects.
Yeah, that's burying the guy who had the 8th highest ESTOI and 6th most ES points in the regular season. Sheahan was a guy we leaned on in the regular season to help carry the play at ES, but when he became the center of choice for whoever was being cycled into the lineup on any given day, his role was minimized and it was a mistake. I'm not saying Weiss should have been a third liner, or Jurco should have been a third liner. I'm saying we should have given Sheahan a larger role at ES in some way.
No. I don't want Andersson above the fourth line. I also don't want to see Glendening, Miller, Ferraro, Callahan, etc. above the fourth line. When they start getting elevated ice times, it's because we're trying to win games too close, with too low of scores and we're ceding too much ice and possession.
What exactly is wrong with expecting a kid to be undeniably better than the guy whose job he is taking? With the exception of Nyquist for a whopping 15 games I don't think you can say kids have been held back. Let them earn it. I don't mean put up cutesy little stats in the kid's league. I mean actually earn it. Do all the things you need to do to be paid millions of dollars as an NHL player. It is good to have high expectations unless you just want to be a loser.
Heaton
Moderator
If none of our prospects are ever good enough out of camp to outright win a job and only get a job by default when they lose waiver eligible status. that's says a lot about their quality and our development.
especially when it's painfully obvious guys who 'win' the job over them aren't even good.
especially when it's painfully obvious guys who 'win' the job over them aren't even good.
How do you expect them to earn it other than by either producing in lower leagues or out performing vets in camp? Kindl walked into camp as a 19 yr old and had probably the best camp of his career, but was sent down not because he didn't play well enough in camp, but mostly because he was 19. Helm and Abdelkader were trusted to 20+ game playoff runs and still didn't make the team out of camp the following year (only to be called up again for the next playoff run). Babcock wanted Smith out of camp, and Smith was sent down. Babcock wanted XO this past fall, and XO was sent down.
This isn't just give Prospect X a spot because he was a high pick and killed juniors. It's give the spot to the guy who earns it in camp. We've quit doing that to serve some crazy idea of organizational depth that has seen us icing worse teams in Detroit so we would have better guys to call up later.
What everyone does with their defensemen has only produced, what, like 10 standout defensemen in the past 10 years?
Maybe there just aren't that many standout defensemen, perhaps even to the point that being annoyed your team hasn't found one is a teensey bit unfair.
Or perhaps the accuracy of the analysis of observers that labelled them as 'well-regarded' in the first place. When you start from inaccurately placed expectations of performance the odds those expectations won't be met increases quickly.
You keep citing Nyquist as though he's example 1 of a laundry list when it's closer to the truth that he's the entire list. Hey, it happens. Nyquist had to sit in GR 46 whole extra days or something. Not ideal, but not nearly worthy of pillar-rending dissolution of strategy and staff, either.
It seems like you're trying to present a case as though all of those guys were on the roster simultaneously, leaving no room for any prospect.
While White (12 and 13) and later Colaiacovo (13) was on the roster so were Kindl and Smith. Which dmen were being kept off the roster by such veteran gluttony at the time, Nicastro? A 20 year old Ouellet? Come on. I'd take the 2012 version of Ian White over any dman in the Wings prospect system today by a bleeping mile.
While Cleary and Sammy and Bert and Tootoo et all were on the roster at varying times the team was icing Brunner, Tatar, Emmerton, Andersson and Nyquist too. While Helm and Abdelkader were in years 2-4.
I feel like if the team uses any roster space on a vet rather than just plugging in a prospect you're going to take exception to it. Detroit's clearly and obviously had 1-4 roster spaces come open for kids every year, and considering pretty much their whole roster is filled with people they drafted who were kids at some point it sure seems like prospects get a chance in the NHL somehow, right?
Seriously, we're talking about 3-5 roster spaces out of 23 spent on vets of the type that annoy you, right? While the other 18-20 are all occupied either by current prospects or graduated prospects? And you think Detroit does a poor job of moving prospects up even though there are almost no cases of any prospect leaving Detroit's system and doing anything elsewhere else but stinking?
This is demonstrated by all the dmen and forwards who have just knocked our socks off with their awesomeness?
Which list, I think, is comprised of exactly two guys, Nyquist and Tatar. Of that list Tatar didn't impress until THIS year?So a guy goes from 8th on the team in ES IT/g to 9th and he's buried. While getting a big chunk of time with the top 2 leading goalscorers on the team?
At whose expense?
I mean, we understand that this is how playoff hockey is played though, right? That there is a greater focus on matchups and defense then than during the regular season? And, also, Glendening and Miller were great in the playoffs. Great. Tossing those guys in with Ferraro and Andersson is wholly unfair. The second Glendening came off the ice late in game 6 everything exploded in the late game defensive system.
Ad
Upcoming events
-
-
-
Game 2 Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics - Boston leads series 1-0Wagers: 1Staked: $1,000.00Event closes- Updated:
-
-
