How many points would Wayne Gretzky and/or Mario Lemieux score in today's NHL?

[The Panther]

I recently saw some of those cheesy NHL ads from about 2008 or 2009. You know, the one where Crosby says: "Is this the year... someone scores 200 points again?"

They should do a new one with Jamie Benn: "Is this the year... someone scores 90 points???"

 

[BraveCanadian]

The season before wasn't much better. Only one 90 pt. scorer in the past two years. In the 2007, there was fourteen 90 pt scorers. It's overwhelmingly obvious that scoring by the elite offensive players is going down from 2005/06. I know the league GPG would indicate differently but there is a fundamental difference in the scoring environment for the elite scorers. A decrease in PPOs seems to be the main culprit.

So there seems to be two dynamics in this discussion:

(1) Would Wayne's #'s be affected by the overall drop in league scoring which has seem scoring drop from over 4 goals per game to the DPE era and onwards levels of 2.5 to 3ish goals per game. I think the vast majority believe Wayne that would not be immune to changes in the game be it obstruction, better goalies, better d-systems etc... and 200 point seasons would not be attainable. This doesn't change the massive gap between Wayne and his peers in terms of talent. IMO, despite the latter, a tougher scoring environment means that gap in talent would be minimalized a bit. I would point to playoff scoring as an indicator that this could be the case.

(2) Would Wayne be immune to a decrease in PPOs that seems to primarily affect scoring by the elite scorers but less so in league-wide scoring? There doesn't seem to be any statistical evidence to show that players who put up big ES numbers in 2005-2007 were less likely to see their numbers drop with a decrease in PPOs. There doesn't seem to be any part of Wayne's career to reference how his #'s would change in this environment. I don't believe there was any similar type of changes to PPOs during Wayne's prime.

IMO, the biggest piece of this discussion is how Wayne would do in significantly different NHL that saw overall league scoring drop 30%. There are obviously major changes that have taken place to bring about a major change in scoring levels. The only piece of evidence to draw on is his high Art Ross showing at the age of 37. That season could have very well won him the Art Ross last year. Obviously a 37-year old Wayne is not a prime Wayne but we have also seen other 35-plus players compete and win Art Rosses in the DPE and onwards era. IMO, I don't think this offers any insight into the OP.

So in other words ignore everything discussed in the thread and stick with your original opinion.

The fact that you are still harping on PPOs after the most recent time through the roundabout just boggles my mind.

Gretzky put up 215 points in a season with PPOs in line with today.

 

[Czech Your Math]

You're a GM. You have the opportunity to pick a 2008 Ovechkin or a 1989 Lemieux, who do you pick? Even just from a 5-on-5 standpoint are we really having this discussion?

Overall, it's clearly '89 Lemieux.

At ES, I'd still take Lemieux, but I can understand having to think about it.

 

[daver]

Overall, it's clearly '89 Lemieux.

At ES, I'd still take Lemieux, but I can understand having to think about it.

Because Mario would be injured for 1/4 of the season? That would be the only thing to think about.

 

[daver]

So in other words ignore everything discussed in the thread and stick with your original opinion.

The fact that you are still harping on PPOs after the most recent time through the roundabout just boggles my mind.

Gretzky put up 215 points in a season with PPOs in line with today.

Aside from the fact that you can't seem to comprehend why PPOs are even getting mentioned you are assuming that there were the same amount of PPOs last year as there was in the '80s . There wasn't. Wayne wouldn't have the same amount of PPOs if he played last year.

 

[Black Gold Extractor]

Aside from the fact that you can't seem to comprehend why PPOs are even getting mentioned you are assuming that there were the same amount of PPOs last year as there was in the '80s . There wasn't. Wayne wouldn't have the same amount of PPOs if he played last year.

Converting from 1985-86 to 2014-15:

NHL Season | EV goals | PP goals | SH goals | Total goals | Games in season | Assists per goal
1985-86|5.61|2.04|0.28|7.94|80|1.64
2014-15|4.05|1.14|0.14|5.32|82|1.72

Gretzky in 1985-86 goes from:

League Strength | Games | EV Points | PP Points | SH Points | Total
1985-86 conditions|80|144|53|18|215
2014-15 conditions|82|110|31|10|151

That's a 42% drop in adjusted powerplay scoring for Gretzky (43% drop per game). Gretzky's 85-86 season would still translate to ~150 points in 2014-15 scoring conditions.

 

[Rhiessan71]

Aside from the fact that you can't seem to comprehend why PPOs are even getting mentioned you are assuming that there were the same amount of PPOs last year as there was in the '80s . There wasn't. Wayne wouldn't have the same amount of PPOs if he played last year.

True BUT the League avg PPO's from year to year in the 80's during Gretzky's peak was around 300-325 and therefore usually closer to last seasons 251 than 06's 480 and 07's 398.
And as has also been mentioned multiple times in this thread, the Oilers tended to finish in the bottom 1/3 in PPO's every year.

And of course once again, a drop in PPO's and PP points only affects Gretzky's points total half as much as the average top players' are.
A 20% drop in PP points is a 10% drop in over-all points for most players but closer to only a 5% drop for Gretzky.
A player with 60ES, 55PP and 5SH, 120 points becomes 60ES, 44PP and 4SH for 108 points. 12 points for a 10% drop in points.
While Gretzky with 145ES, 55PP and 15SH, 215 points becomes 145ES, 44PP and 12SH for 201. 14 points for a 6.5% drop.
Gretzky goes from having a 79% lead on said player to having an 86% lead on him.


Oh and no comment on Crosby's increased ES time from last season compared to 06 and 07?
Do you really think I'm just going to let that one fly under the radar and let you have a pass on after just about every argument you have had has included the supposed FACT that ES times are down for top players today compared to 06 and 07?

 

[blogofmike]

Aside from the fact that you can't seem to comprehend why PPOs are even getting mentioned you are assuming that there were the same amount of PPOs last year as there was in the '80s . There wasn't. Wayne wouldn't have the same amount of PPOs if he played last year.

Wayne Gretzky played on a team with 295 PPO that year. Detroit had 294 in 2015. Gretzky's PPO reduction hurts him LESS than other stars. He isn't immune. But the greater amount of ES play would naturally help the greatest ES player, relative to his peers. As BlackGold's estimates show, Lemieux, who was on a high PPO team (491 in 88-89), would seem to be more vulnerable to the shift.

(2) Would Wayne be immune to a decrease in PPOs that seems to primarily affect scoring by the elite scorers but less so in league-wide scoring? There doesn't seem to be any statistical evidence to show that players who put up big ES numbers in 2005-2007 were less likely to see their numbers drop with a decrease in PPOs. There doesn't seem to be any part of Wayne's career to reference how his #'s would change in this environment. I don't believe there was any similar type of changes to PPOs during Wayne's prime.

BlackGold's estimates aren't adjusting for PPO. So even taking a season where his team was dead last in PPO, then adjusting it down to 2015 scoring levels in ES/PP/SH categories, Gretzky crosses 150 points.

If you want a reference, remove every PP point he ever scored. Observe how he still manages to win the Art Ross Trophy in his best years. Heck, even with his 2015 adjusted stats his total points beats people from the 1980s who are unadjusted.

 

[daver]

Wayne Gretzky played on a team with 295 PPO that year. Detroit had 294 in 2015. Gretzky's PPO reduction hurts him LESS than other stars. He isn't immune. But the greater amount of ES play would naturally help the greatest ES player, relative to his peers. As BlackGold's estimates show, Lemieux, who was on a high PPO team (491 in 88-89), would seem to be more vulnerable to the shift.



BlackGold's estimates aren't adjusting for PPO. So even taking a season where his team was dead last in PPO, then adjusting it down to 2015 scoring levels in ES/PP/SH categories, Gretzky crosses 150 points.

If you want a reference, remove every PP point he ever scored. Observe how he still manages to win the Art Ross Trophy in his best years. Heck, even with his 2015 adjusted stats his total points beats people from the 1980s who are unadjusted.

The premise I am throwing out there for discussion is a drop in scoring levels by the top scorers seems to be across the board when PPOs are decreased. That a player was the highest ES scorer prior to PPOs taking a drop, doesn't seem to matter. They still see a similar drop percentage-wise. Unless I'm mistaken, Wayne never had this dynamic in his prime; a clear drop in scoring by the pack due to a big drop is PPOs, so it is an unknown if he would necessarily not see a similar percentage drop as the pack.

 

[Black Gold Extractor]

The premise I am throwing out there for discussion is a drop in scoring levels by the top scorers seems to be across the board when PPOs are decreased. That a player was the highest ES scorer prior to PPOs taking a drop, doesn't seem to matter. They still see a similar drop percentage-wise. Unless I'm mistaken, Wayne never had this dynamic in his prime; a clear drop in scoring by the pack due to a big drop is PPOs, so it is an unknown if he would necessarily not see a similar percentage drop as the pack.

For comparison, here's Mike Bossy's career converted to 2014-15 levels of scoring using the breakdown of EV, PP, and SH scoring here:

Bossy's adjusted boxcars:

Original|Adjusted|Adjusted|Adjusted|Adjusted|Adjusted
Season|Games|Goals|Assists|Points|Points/Game
1977-78|75|45|34|79|1.05
1978-79|82| 53 |46|99|1.21
1979-80|77|39|33|72|0.94
1980-81|81|47|39|86|1.06
1981-82|82|44| 58 | 102 | 1.24
1982-83|81|42|42|84|1.04
1983-84|69|37|49|86|1.25
1984-85|78|40|44|84|1.08
1985-86|82|42|45|87|1.06
1986-87|65|29|28|57|0.88
Total | 772 | 418 | 418 | 836 | 1.08

Breakdown of adjusted EV, PP, and SH scoring:

Original|Adjusted|Adjusted|Adjusted|Adjusted|Adjusted|Adjusted
Season|Games|EV Points|PP Points|SH Points|Total Points|Points/Game
1977-78|75|43|36|0|79|1.05
1978-79|82|61| 38 |0|99|1.21
1979-80|77|48|24|0|72|0.94
1980-81|81|58|27|1|86|1.06
1981-82|82| 72 |30|0| 102 | 1.24
1982-83|81|58|26|0|84|1.04
1983-84|69|67|19|0|86|1.25
1984-85|78|64|18| 2 |84|1.08
1985-86|82|62|23| 2 |87|1.06
1986-87|65|35|21|1|57|0.88
Total | 772 | 568 | 262 | 6 | 836 | 1.08

Bossy only has two seasons that translate to outright Art Ross wins last season (his actual 126-point and 147-point seasons), plus one season where he would have won on a tie-breaker of goals scored. Only his first 69-goal season would have translated into a Rocket last season (tying Ovechkin with one more game played). None of Bossy's seasons translate to a season better than 2013-14 Crosby.

I used the same method to translate Bossy's numbers as I did with Gretzky, Lemieux, and Orr earlier in this thread. According to this, Bossy only breaks 90 points twice and 50 goals once. Mostly, he would be a slightly better than a point-per-game player in this current scoring era (i.e. a top-4-ish scorer in the last couple of seasons)... at least according to the adjusted EV, PP, and SH numbers.

I don't see how further adjustment, especially against outliers like Gretzky or Lemieux, is necessary.

EDIT: If anything, even the EV, PP, and SH fine-tuned adjustments here might be over-adjustments...

 

[daver]

For comparison, here's Mike Bossy's career converted to 2014-15 levels of scoring using the breakdown of EV, PP, and SH scoring here:

Bossy's adjusted boxcars:

Original|Adjusted|Adjusted|Adjusted|Adjusted|Adjusted
Season|Games|Goals|Assists|Points|Points/Game
1977-78|75|45|34|79|1.05
1978-79|82| 53 |46|99|1.21
1979-80|77|39|33|72|0.94
1980-81|81|47|39|86|1.06
1981-82|82|44| 58 | 102 | 1.24
1982-83|81|42|42|84|1.04
1983-84|69|37|49|86|1.25
1984-85|78|40|44|84|1.08
1985-86|82|42|45|87|1.06
1986-87|65|29|28|57|0.88
Total | 772 | 418 | 418 | 836 | 1.08

Breakdown of adjusted EV, PP, and SH scoring:

Original|Adjusted|Adjusted|Adjusted|Adjusted|Adjusted|Adjusted
Season|Games|EV Points|PP Points|SH Points|Total Points|Points/Game
1977-78|75|43|36|0|79|1.05
1978-79|82|61| 38 |0|99|1.21
1979-80|77|48|24|0|72|0.94
1980-81|81|58|27|1|86|1.06
1981-82|82| 72 |30|0| 102 | 1.24
1982-83|81|58|26|0|84|1.04
1983-84|69|67|19|0|86|1.25
1984-85|78|64|18| 2 |84|1.08
1985-86|82|62|23| 2 |87|1.06
1986-87|65|35|21|1|57|0.88
Total | 772 | 568 | 262 | 6 | 836 | 1.08

Bossy only has two seasons that translate to outright Art Ross wins last season (his actual 126-point and 147-point seasons), plus one season where he would have won on a tie-breaker of goals scored. Only his first 69-goal season would have translated into a Rocket last season (tying Ovechkin with one more game played). None of Bossy's seasons translate to a season better than 2013-14 Crosby.

I used the same method to translate Bossy's numbers as I did with Gretzky, Lemieux, and Orr earlier in this thread. According to this, Bossy only breaks 90 points twice and 50 goals once. Mostly, he would be a slightly better than a point-per-game player in this current scoring era (i.e. a top-4-ish scorer in the last couple of seasons)... at least according to the adjusted EV, PP, and SH numbers.

I don't see how further adjustment, especially against outliers like Gretzky or Lemieux, is necessary.

EDIT: If anything, even the EV, PP, and SH fine-tuned adjustments here might be over-adjustments...

Are these adjusted according to the league GPG?

 

[Black Gold Extractor]

Are these adjusted according to the league GPG?

Sort of, I added up all the even strength, powerplay, and shorthanded goals scored separately in each post-expansion season (see this thread). I adjusted all even strength goals and assists, powerplay goals and assists, and shorthanded goals and assists separately to more fine-tune adjustments.

For Mike Bossy, here are the relevant seasons:

NHL Season | EV goals | PP goals | SH goals | Total goals | Games in season | Assists per goal
1977-78|5.10|1.35|0.15|6.59|80|1.62
1978-79|5.29|1.54|0.17|7.00|80|1.63
1979-80|5.35|1.53|0.15|7.03|80|1.62
1980-81|5.52|1.91|0.25|7.69|80|1.62
1981-82|5.97|1.82|0.23|8.03|80|1.65
1982-83|5.72|1.78|0.23|7.73|80|1.64
1983-84|5.76|1.84|0.29|7.89|80|1.63
1984-85|5.72|1.78|0.28|7.77|80|1.66
1985-86|5.61|2.04|0.28|7.94|80|1.64
1986-87|5.28|1.80|0.26|7.34|80|1.64
2014-15 | 4.05 | 1.14 | 0.14 | 5.32 | 82 | 1.72

EDIT: It should be better than raw adjusting. For example, from 1985-86 to 2014-15, EV scoring has dropped 28%, PP scoring has dropped 44%, and SH scoring has dropped 50%. That's not uniform.

 

[Big Phil]

The season before wasn't much better. Only one 90 pt. scorer in the past two years. In the 2007, there was fourteen 90 pt scorers. It's overwhelmingly obvious that scoring by the elite offensive players is going down from 2005/06. I know the league GPG would indicate differently but there is a fundamental difference in the scoring environment for the elite scorers. A decrease in PPOs seems to be the main culprit.

I don't think it would matter much for Gretzky. All this nickel and diming takes away from the point that he was an aberration and not a trend with other stars. He would be the exception to every rule, even today.

Overall, it's clearly '89 Lemieux.

At ES, I'd still take Lemieux, but I can understand having to think about it.

I wouldn't think about it much at all. I think we are going a little revisionist here with Lemieux.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Aside from the fact that you can't seem to comprehend why PPOs are even getting mentioned you are assuming that there were the same amount of PPOs last year as there was in the '80s . There wasn't. Wayne wouldn't have the same amount of PPOs if he played last year.

Yeah, that is not at all what I was assuming.

What is a fact is that Gretzky put up 200+ points with a similar amount of PPOs as teams get today. A fact lost on you more than once in this thread now.

 

[Czech Your Math]

I don't think it would matter much for Gretzky. All this nickel and diming takes away from the point that he was an aberration and not a trend with other stars. He would be the exception to every rule, even today.



I wouldn't think about it much at all. I think we are going a little revisionist here with Lemieux.

Lemieux scored 51% of his points at ES, Ovechkin 67%.
Lemieux also missed 5% of the season.
That's what makes it close at ES.

 

[daver]

Aside from the fact that you can't seem to comprehend why PPOs are even getting mentioned you are assuming that there were the same amount of PPOs last year as there was in the '80s . There wasn't. Wayne wouldn't have the same amount of PPOs if he played last year.

Yeah, that is not at all what I was assuming.

What is a fact is that Gretzky put up 200+ points with a similar amount of PPOs as teams get today. A fact lost on you more than once in this thread now.

That is exactly what you are assuming.

So show your proof that teams today got the same amount of PPOs than in the '80s because the facts show otherwise.

Here's is the data:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_1985.html

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2015.html

Avg. PPO for 1984/85: 321

Avg. PPO for 2014/15: 251

Even if you assume Wayne keeps his ES scoring dominance (which is questionable on its own), you cannot deny that his PP scoring totals would go down simply because PPOs went down.

 

[Elvis P]

I think they'd both average 1.5 PPG.

 

[daver]

Sort of, I added up all the even strength, powerplay, and shorthanded goals scored separately in each post-expansion season (see this thread). I adjusted all even strength goals and assists, powerplay goals and assists, and shorthanded goals and assists separately to more fine-tune adjustments.

For Mike Bossy, here are the relevant seasons:

NHL Season | EV goals | PP goals | SH goals | Total goals | Games in season | Assists per goal
1977-78|5.10|1.35|0.15|6.59|80|1.62
1978-79|5.29|1.54|0.17|7.00|80|1.63
1979-80|5.35|1.53|0.15|7.03|80|1.62
1980-81|5.52|1.91|0.25|7.69|80|1.62
1981-82|5.97|1.82|0.23|8.03|80|1.65
1982-83|5.72|1.78|0.23|7.73|80|1.64
1983-84|5.76|1.84|0.29|7.89|80|1.63
1984-85|5.72|1.78|0.28|7.77|80|1.66
1985-86|5.61|2.04|0.28|7.94|80|1.64
1986-87|5.28|1.80|0.26|7.34|80|1.64
2014-15 | 4.05 | 1.14 | 0.14 | 5.32 | 82 | 1.72

EDIT: It should be better than raw adjusting. For example, from 1985-86 to 2014-15, EV scoring has dropped 28%, PP scoring has dropped 44%, and SH scoring has dropped 50%. That's not uniform.

Using league GPG to adjust is flawed. Most agree that performance vs. peers is the superior way to adjust. I am sure if that is done for Bossy, he would likely win more than one of the Art Rosses awarded since 2005.

 

[daver]

Lemieux scored 51% of his points at ES, Ovechkin 67%.
Lemieux also missed 5% of the season.
That's what makes it close at ES.

This is the reverse of the bias towards Wayne's ES scoring.

First of all, your ES/PP ratio comparison is sorely lacking a most important element: %'s of what numbers? Mario's ES ratio is low only because he scored a ton on the PP. That's not a negative at all especially when his ES points/game were clearly better.

Secondly, I don't think Mario's ES/PP ratio is anything other than the fact he was particularly wicked on the PP thus that was the most effective use of his talent. If he didn't get as much PP time, I don't think you can assume he would not have put up his gaudy numbers.

It is very interesting though the stark difference between the # of PPOs for the Oilers and Pens in Wayne and Mario's prime. The Oilers were on the lower end, almost the lowest, while the Pens were the highest. When Wayne left the Oilers in 1988, the Oilers' PPOs took a jump.

 

[daver]

I don't think it would matter much for Gretzky. All this nickel and diming takes away from the point that he was an aberration and not a trend with other stars. He would be the exception to every rule, even today.

Who knows. All I am pointing out is the differences in the dynamics of the league from the '80s to today.

If you think Wayne is the exception to the rule, why wouldn't he buck the trend of lower scoring by the star players going hand in hand with a decrease in the league GPG and put up over 200 points in today's game?

 

[Black Gold Extractor]

Using league GPG to adjust is flawed. Most agree that performance vs. peers is the superior way to adjust. I am sure if that is done for Bossy, he would likely win more than one of the Art Rosses awarded since 2005.

I agree, which is why I didn't use the overall league GPG to adjust. I separated EV, PP, and SH scoring. For example, from 1985-86 to 2014-15, EV scoring has dropped 28% (5.61 -> 4.05 GPG), PP scoring has dropped 44% (2.04 -> 1.14 GPG), and SH scoring has dropped 50% (0.28 -> 0.14 GPG). Using overall league GPG would have uniformly dropped all EV, PP, and SH scoring by 33%, which would noticeably underestimate the decline PP and SH scoring (due to the loss of PP opportunities, as you correctly pointed out).

Comparison versus peers is great for determining how much of an outlier a player is, especially for older eras when there's a lot less data around. However, even the performance of high-end players tend to fluctuate, and even a pool of the top ten players is a small sample size. Gretzky's 183-point 1986-87 season is his most dominant year, but I'm hard-pressed to say it's his "best" year. Generally, I'm now more inclined to do multi-season peer comparisons now to average out the fluctuations. And even then, is there as much difference as we think?

Season|1981-82|1982-83|1983-84|1984-85|1985-86|1986-87|Average|2013-14|2014-15
Rank|Adjusted|Adjusted|Adjusted|Adjusted|Adjusted|Adjusted|Adjusted|Actual|Actual
-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-
Outlier|147|143|144|148|151|138| 145 | 104 | N/A
Typical 2|102|91|89|97|97|82| 93 | 87 | 87
Typical 3|96|88|87|94|97|81| 91 | 86 | 86
Typical 4|93|84|86|90|90|79| 87 | 84 | 84
Typical 5|90|78|86|86|87|79| 84 | 82 | 81
Typical 6|83|77|81|84|84|78| 81 | 80 | 81
Typical 7|81|77|80|76|83|77| 79 | 80 | 78
Typical 8|80|77|79|76|76|72| 77 | 79 | 77
Typical 9|74|77|76|75|74|72| 75 | 79 | 76
Typical 10|73|75|73|74|71|71| 73 | 79 | 76
Typical 11|73|75|72|73|71|71| 73 | 79 | 73
Typical 12|72|71|70|73|71|69| 71 | 78 | 73
Typical 13|72|70|70|72|70|70| 71 | 76 | 73
Typical 14|68|70|68|72|70|66| 69 | 74 | 73
Typical 15|67|68|67|72|69|66| 68 | 72 | 72
Typical 16|66|67|67|71|69|65| 68 | 70 | 72
Typical 17|65|66|67|70|66|62| 66 | 70 | 71
Typical 18|64|66|66|69|65|64| 66 | 70 | 70
Typical 19|64|65|66|69|63|63| 65 | 69 | 70
Typical 20|64|64|66|69|62|62| 65 | 69 | 70
-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-
Average 2-10|86|80|82|84|84|77| 82 | 82 | 81
Average 2-20|76|74|75|77|76|71| 75 | 77 | 76

If we're averaging the typical 2-10 highest-scoring players in each season, there's only a one-point variation between the averaged adjusted seasons, 2013-14, and 2014-15 (82, 82, and 81 points respectively).

If we're looking at each adjusted season individually, there's one extraordinarily strong season (1981-82) and one extraordinarily weak season (1986-87). Otherwise, it's a typical 2-10 average of 80-84 points for the adjusted seasons. That's not completely out of line with the last couple of seasons given fluctuations in player performance.

Relevant seasons:

NHL Season | EV goals | PP goals | SH goals | Total goals | Games in season | Assists per goal
1981-82|5.97|1.82|0.23|8.03|80|1.65
1982-83|5.72|1.78|0.23|7.73|80|1.64
1983-84|5.76|1.84|0.29|7.89|80|1.63
1984-85|5.72|1.78|0.28|7.77|80|1.66
1985-86|5.61|2.04|0.28|7.94|80|1.64
1986-87|5.28|1.80|0.26|7.34|80|1.64
2013-14|4.01|1.17|0.16|5.34|82|1.71
2014-15|4.05|1.14|0.14|5.32|82|1.72

EDIT: Also, I'm sorry if it feels like I'm piling on. (I'm honestly not.) It was this discussion that led me into trying a new way of converting player stats. Cheers!

 

[BraveCanadian]

That is exactly what you are assuming.

So show your proof that teams today got the same amount of PPOs than in the '80s because the facts show otherwise.

Here's is the data:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_1985.html

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2015.html

Avg. PPO for 1984/85: 321

Avg. PPO for 2014/15: 251

Even if you assume Wayne keeps his ES scoring dominance (which is questionable on its own), you cannot deny that his PP scoring totals would go down simply because PPOs went down.

You're being deliberately obtuse.

Remember how you said adjusted by league averages weren't the way to go? Heh.

I guess it is ok with PPOs while ignoring the specific case that Gretzky wasn't getting league average PPOs anyways. So again.. the decline in PPOs is going to affect him LESS THAN THE AVERAGE.

How many people have to explain this to you in different ways before it will sink in?

 

[daver]

You're being deliberately obtuse.

Remember how you said adjusted by league averages weren't the way to go? Heh.

I guess it is ok with PPOs while ignoring the specific case that Gretzky wasn't getting league average PPOs anyways. So again.. the decline in PPOs is going to affect him LESS THAN THE AVERAGE.

How many people have to explain this to you in different ways before it will sink in?

For the umpteenth time, I am not necessarily offering an opinion one way or another on the whole ES/PP ratio.

You clearly are though and I am pointing out that your assumption that he would have same amount of PPOs last year as he did in the '80s is statistically incorrect.

But you seem pretty adept at trying picking apart others people's comments. How about you make a prediction on how much Wayne would score in last year's NHL?

 

[Czech Your Math]

This is the reverse of the bias towards Wayne's ES scoring.

First of all, your ES/PP ratio comparison is sorely lacking a most important element: %'s of what numbers? Mario's ES ratio is low only because he scored a ton on the PP. That's not a negative at all especially when his ES points/game were clearly better.

Secondly, I don't think Mario's ES/PP ratio is anything other than the fact he was particularly wicked on the PP thus that was the most effective use of his talent. If he didn't get as much PP time, I don't think you can assume he would not have put up his gaudy numbers.

I believe our impression of Mario at ES is colored by our overall impression of his offensive play. He would have still put up gaudy numbers if he didn't play almost every second of the PP, just slighly less gaudy.

I recently saw some of those cheesy NHL ads from about 2008 or 2009. You know, the one where Crosby says: "Is this the year... someone scores 200 points again?"

They should do a new one with Jamie Benn: "Is this the year... someone scores 90 points???"

Yeah, basically it's Kane, Benn & Seguin saying "is this the year someone scores 100 points again?"

 

[blogofmike]

You clearly are though and I am pointing out that your assumption that he would have same amount of PPOs last year as he did in the '80s is statistically incorrect.

Actually, if I were to parse his words...

You're being deliberately obtuse.

Remember how you said adjusted by league averages weren't the way to go? Heh.

I guess it is ok with PPOs while ignoring the specific case that Gretzky wasn't getting league average PPOs anyways. So again.. the decline in PPOs is going to affect him LESS THAN THE AVERAGE.

How many people have to explain this to you in different ways before it will sink in?

Yeah, I think he says there is a decline, but for Gretzky it's not as steep as would be for a high PPO team. In his three highest scoring years his team received fewer PPO than Pittsburgh got in Lemieux's two highest scoring years.

Using league GPG to adjust is flawed. Most agree that performance vs. peers is the superior way to adjust. I am sure if that is done for Bossy, he would likely win more than one of the Art Rosses awarded since 2005.

It's tough for Bossy to win in 2006 if he's stuck at 2015 levels and others jump up to 2006 levels.

Using league GPG to adjust is flawed. Most agree that performance vs. peers is the superior way to adjust. I am sure if that is done for Bossy, he would likely win more than one of the Art Rosses awarded since 2005.

I could have sworn this math happened because someone was questioning Wayne Gretzky's performance vs his peers as being inadequate to account for ways that the NHL is being so tough on its stars.

If [Mario Lemieux] didn't get as much PP time, I don't think you can assume he would not have put up his gaudy numbers.

Even if you assume Wayne keeps his ES scoring dominance (which is questionable on its own), you cannot deny that his PP scoring totals would go down simply because PPOs went down.

So the point totals of Mario Lemieux, the clearly inferior ES player, are more resilient to a loss of PPO than the point totals of the guy who would win scoring titles without ever having a powerplay?

If Lemieux's PPO were decreased, he would look less like Wayne Gretzky and more like peak Mike Bossy or Steve Yzerman. Which isn't bad, but is still a downgrade.