How many points would Wayne Gretzky and/or Mario Lemieux score in today's NHL?

[daver]

It's tough for Bossy to win in 2006 if he's stuck at 2015 levels and others jump up to 2006 levels.

I am saying that Bossy's best season of 147 points, if translated into each season since 2005 (ten seasons total) likely sees him winning multiple Art Rosses and Rockets based on how far ahead of the pack he was.

 

[daver]

I could have sworn this math happened because someone was questioning Wayne Gretzky's performance vs his peers as being inadequate to account for ways that the NHL is being so tough on its stars.

I said Wayne's status as an extreme outlier could be more affected than lesser stars.

 

[daver]

So the point totals of Mario Lemieux, the clearly inferior ES player, are more resilient to a loss of PPO than the point totals of the guy who would win scoring titles without ever having a powerplay?

If Lemieux's PPO were decreased, he would look less like Wayne Gretzky and more like peak Mike Bossy or Steve Yzerman. Which isn't bad, but is still a downgrade.

First of all, I am looking for acknowledgement that there is nothing to reference to back this up. It is all conjecture.

Secondly, can you say for certain that Mario was the clearly inferior ES player without saying with equal certainty he was the clearly superior PP player? It seems the amount of PPOs their respective teams had was the largest contributor to the discrepancy in their ES and PP point totals.

Thirdly, I am not sold on lower PPOs being the reason why scoring levels by the league stars drops while the league GPG declines more slowly. I think lower PPOs is the product of what's happening on the ice that leads to less PPs being called which in turn lowers the PP time for the best offensive players.

 

[BraveCanadian]

How about you make a prediction on how much Wayne would score in last year's NHL?

Remember how I said you were going in circles?

Also from this thread:

Enough that he would score 140-160 which is the reasonable estimate in recent seasons.

Wheee round and round we goooo!

 

[Black Gold Extractor]

Secondly, can you say for certain that Mario was the clearly inferior ES player without saying with equal certainty he was the clearly superior PP player? It seems the amount of PPOs their respective teams had was the largest contributor to the discrepancy in their ES and PP point totals.

Here are Gretzky and Lemieux's top ten EV scoring years, sorted by adjusted EV points/game.

Actual| Adjusted |Actual| Adjusted | Adjusted
Gretzky| Gretzky |Lemieux| Lemieux | Percent
EV Points/Game| EV Points/Game |EV Points/Game| EV Points/Game | Difference
-|-|-|-|-
1.80| 1.34 |1.63| 1.34 | 0%
1.76| 1.34 |1.31| 1.10 | -18%
1.79| 1.33 |1.00| 1.07 | -20%
1.79| 1.27 |1.04| 1.03 | -19%
1.53| 1.25 |1.12| 1.02 | -19%
1.38| 1.21 |1.04| 1.01 | -16%
1.61| 1.21 |1.15| 1.00 | -17%
1.29| 1.13 |1.05| 0.95 | -15%
1.28| 1.05 |1.18| 0.95 | -10%
1.25| 1.05 |1.06| 0.86 | -18%

Aside from 92-93, clearly Lemieux's best year in any measure, Lemieux trails Gretzky in adjusted EV scoring per game by ~17%. For example, if Gretzky had 17:00 minutes of EV time, Lemieux would have been playing only 14:06 minutes of EV time in order for them to be equally productive.

That seems unlikely. However, I think the gap between Lemieux and Gretzky in any measure is vanishingly small when compared with other players.

Thirdly, I am not sold on lower PPOs being the reason why scoring levels by the league stars drops while the league GPG declines more slowly. I think lower PPOs is the product of what's happening on the ice that leads to less PPs being called which in turn lowers the PP time for the best offensive players.

Well, a couple of bad seasons isn't necessarily a trend... yet. This season, scoring seems to have rebounded for the top players. Fluctuations happen. And honestly, if Pittsburgh hadn't replaced their decent coach with a poor one last season, Crosby and Malkin would have been closing in on 100 points (at least in pace) and it wouldn't have looked too different than 2013-14. It's just kind of weird for us because each new data point requires a year to pass.

Trying to nickel and dime Gretzky and Lemieux seems unnecessary. Whether its comparison with peers or adjusting EV, PP, and SH points separately, it seems like healthy Gretzky and Lemieux at their peaks would still pass 140 points pretty easily. I seem to remember that I had estimated Gretzky's 6-year peak relative to peers to be 143 points if compared to the top ten of 2014-15. The new-fangled EV, PP, and SH adjusted average for Gretzky's 6-year peak is (after a few hours of work on my part, too)... 145 points. Neither method has much in common. Both methods give a result that varies by 1.5%.

I think we're really, really overthinking things here...

EDIT: As usual, here's the relevant data.

 

[Rhiessan71]

I am saying that Bossy's best season of 147 points, if translated into each season since 2005 (ten seasons total) likely sees him winning multiple Art Rosses and Rockets based on how far ahead of the pack he was.

Hey quick question...do you happen to know how many just ES points Gretzky had the year Bossy put up 147?

I said Wayne's status as an extreme outlier could be more affected than lesser stars.

You do know what the term "outlier" means right?

I think history shows that both Gretzky and Lemieux would be less affected.
A 37 year old Gretz as a former shadow of himself with a bad back finishing 3rd in scoring or Mario coming back after his 2nd retirement putting up 35 goals and 76 points in just 43 games in the middle of the DPE.

Your continuing comments that Gretzky wouldn't be as effective remind me of all the people in the early 80's that said Gretzky wouldn't even survive 2 seasons in the NHL and laughed at even the mere possibility of someone getting 200 points.

Gretzky would pick apart today's robotic play the percentage systems, players and goalies like nobodies business and make your boy Crosby look like a peewee player.

 

[Killion]

Gretzky would pick apart today's robotic play the percentage systems, players and goalies like nobodies business and make your boy Crosby look like a peewee player.

.... well now, I wouldnt go that far but yes. Im quite certain Gretzky today would create his own time & space, set the league on fire. Talent like that is transcendent of era. With the rule changes, improvements in stick & skate technology etc.

 

[Rhiessan71]

.... well now, I wouldnt go that far but yes. Im quite certain Gretzky today would create his own time & space, set the league on fire. Talent like that is transcendent of era. With the rule changes, improvements in stick & skate technology etc.

Ok ok he would only make him look like a Junior player then.

 

[daver]

Trying to nickel and dime Gretzky and Lemieux seems unnecessary. Whether its comparison with peers or adjusting EV, PP, and SH points separately, it seems like healthy Gretzky and Lemieux at their peaks would still pass 140 points pretty easily. I seem to remember that I had estimated Gretzky's 6-year peak relative to peers to be 143 points if compared to the top ten of 2014-15. The new-fangled EV, PP, and SH adjusted average for Gretzky's 6-year peak is (after a few hours of work on my part, too)... 145 points. Neither method has much in common. Both methods give a result that varies by 1.5%.

140 -150 points is the amount that make sense statistically based on the avg. PPG of the Top Ten scorers last year. IMO, I wouldn't be surprised if it was a bit less as the conditions to exploit the gap in talent between himself and the pack has changed from the '80s to now.

 

[daver]

.... well now, I wouldnt go that far but yes. Im quite certain Gretzky today would create his own time & space, set the league on fire. Talent like that is transcendent of era. With the rule changes, improvements in stick & skate technology etc.

I don't think there is single poster in this thread arguing his talent wouldn't translate well to this era. The other poster seems quite content to spin anything into a strawman and not add anything to the discussion.

 

[Rhiessan71]

I don't think there is single poster in this thread arguing his talent wouldn't translate well to this era. The other poster seems quite content to spin anything into a strawman and not add anything to the discussion.

Not adding anything eh and strawmens? Really?

I have backed up everything i have said with facts, stats and real situations.

You have been rebuked at every turn.
Your "New, tougher scoring environment" has been shown to be simply due to a 50% drop in PPO's.
When confronted on this you make up some crap about top players not playing more at ES despite less PP time to which the VERY first player I look up is Crosby and his ES time has gone up with less PPO's.
You tried to predict Gretzky at his peak would only be in the 130 point range while in the same breath you said that a peak Crosby would be a mere 15 points behind him.
We showed you Bossy's absolute best season, a season that anyone today would be hard pressed to match, let alone beat and in that very same year Gretzky matched Bossy in ES points alone.
Then there's the FACT that Gretzky pretty much wins 4-5 Art Ross' in a row on his ES points alone. Most of them by 20+ points.
We then bring up a shadow of his former self Gretzky with a bad back at 37 finishing top-3 in scoring and Mario coming off his 2nd retirement at 35 ripping the League apart in the middle of the DPE.

 

[canucks4ever]

Gretzky may have finished 3rd in the scoring race in 1998,but he was 7th in ppg and his goal totals were absurdly low. A 38 year old sakic scored 100 points in 2007, yet a prime sakic never even won an art ross. A 37 year old Beliveau was runner up for the hart trophy. In Marios 43 game return, he was outscored by Jagr.

If Gretzky played in today's era, he would still win his art rosses, but not by the same margin. Especially when you consider the fact that this is a salary cap era and he wont be playing on a dynasty level team.

Do people really think that if you drop Gretzky on the nashville predators or minnesota wild, hes going to outscore Crosby and Ovechkin by 60-70 points?

 

[Rebuilt]

Your continuing comments that Gretzky wouldn't be as effective remind me of all the people in the early 80's that said Gretzky wouldn't even survive 2 seasons in the NHL and laughed at even the mere possibility of someone getting 200 points.

Gretzky would pick apart today's robotic play the percentage systems, players and goalies like nobodies business and make your boy Crosby look like a peewee player.

Gretzky was a skinny guy who wasnt that fast and couldnt hit or fight. He entered an NHL that should have run him out of the league. Kids today who never saw Gretzky come into the league cannot understand what happened.

They think now today after viewing everything Gretzky did that if he came back he would be resigned to playing the same way he did in the 80s. That thinking is dead wrong. Its the OPPOSITE of what Gretzky did.

If he came into the league now, kids today would crow that there is no way he can thrive in the league with the jumbo goalies and defensive schemes.

What I invite all the kids who look at todays game and say no way Gretzky could thrive, go back to 1979 because they are the SAME people who said Gretzky wouldnt even survive let alone thrive.

Bottom line. Its utterly irrelevant what the game looks like now. If Gretzky couldnt thrive in it, he would RE INVENT the game to suit his needs.

So trying to 'adjust' for todays game blah blah to imput his numbers is the same logic that held in 1979 that Gretzky would try to be Guy Lafleur or Bobby Clarke and fail miserably

 

[daver]

Gretzky may have finished 3rd in the scoring race in 1998,but he was 7th in ppg and his goal totals were absurdly low. A 38 year old sakic scored 100 points in 2007, yet a prime sakic never even won an art ross. A 37 year old Beliveau was runner up for the hart trophy. In Marios 43 game return, he was outscored by Jagr.

If Gretzky played in today's era, he would still win his art rosses, but not by the same margin. Especially when you consider the fact that this is a salary cap era and he wont be playing on a dynasty level team.

Do people really think that if you drop Gretzky on the nashville predators or minnesota wild, hes going to outscore Crosby and Ovechkin by 60-70 points?

His 1998 season really offers no insight into the OP.

He wasn't on anything close to a dynasty team when he started putting up 200 point seasons. The 1980 Oilers weren't any better than the Preds or Wild.

 

[canucks4ever]

His 1998 season really offers no insight into the OP.

He wasn't on anything close to a dynasty team when he started putting up 200 point seasons. The 1980 Oilers weren't any better than the Preds or Wild.

Yeah and I dont see him getting those totals if his linemates are Zubrus and Halpern, or Kunitz and Neal.

 

[daver]

Yeah and I dont see him getting those totals if his linemates are Zubrus and Halpern, or Kunitz and Neal.

Wayne is the absolute epitome of putting up points regardless of linemates.

He doubled his teammates in points in two straight seasons in 1980/81 and 81/82. You are really grasping at straws.

 

[canucks4ever]

Wayne is the absolute epitome of putting up points regardless of linemates.

He doubled his teammates in points in two straight seasons in 1980/81 and 81/82. You are really grasping at straws.

His ppg pace did drop once he was traded. I thought your main argument is that he wouldn't dominate to the same extent in today's era.

 

[daver]

His ppg pace did drop once he was traded. I thought your main argument is that he wouldn't dominate to the same extent in today's era.

Not because of the reasons you are stating.

 

[canucks4ever]

Not because of the reasons you are stating.

Well if you dont think quality of teammates would affect his scoring or him playing on a team like the caliber of predators/wild. Then what is the main reason? Increase in talent pool.

Wayne Gretzky's production dropped from 2.33 to 2.15 ppg once he was traded from Edmonton to LA. So he benefited to some degree.

 

[daver]

Well if you dont think quality of teammates would affect his scoring or him playing on a team like the caliber of predators/wild. Then what is the main reason? Increase in talent pool.

Wayne Gretzky's production dropped from 2.33 to 2.15 ppg once he was traded from Edmonton to LA. So he benefited to some degree.

A change in the league dynamics, a tougher scoring environment may limit how much of an outlier he was. I think he would be same in terms of how much better than everyone else he was, it just may not be reflected quite to the same degree in how much ahead of the pack by percentage.

He didn't need good linemates to put up a 200 point season in 1981/82.

 

[canucks4ever]

A change in the league dynamics, a tougher scoring environment may limit how much of an outlier he was. I think he would be same in terms of how much better than everyone else he was, it just may not be reflected quite to the same degree in how much ahead of the pack by percentage.

He didn't need good linemates to put up a 200 point season in 1981/82.

You do realize that in 1982, he had 5 teammates average over 1.10 points per game? If that is what you consider as lousy linemates, then you have high standards. Just because one indvidual oiler didnt score 130 points, doesnt mean he had no help. He isnt scoring 212 points in 1982 if hes on the rockies or devils. Maybe 175-185, but 212 no way.

I look at his LA years and see how much of an impact his numbers had. Ofcourse I wouldnt compare his LA years to the early years of his career. Its just that in 1987 and 1988, hes still an extreme outlier, then from 1989 to 1991, he is no longer an extreme outlier. The trade definetly had something to do with it. If Gretzky was still an oiler in 1989 and 1990, he is scoring 10-20 more point each season

 

[daver]

You do realize that in 1982, he had 5 teammates average over 1.10 points per game? If that is what you consider as lousy linemates, then you have high standards. Just because one indvidual oiler didnt score 130 points, doesnt mean he had no help. He isnt scoring 212 points in 1982 if hes on the rockies or devils. Maybe 175-185, but 212 no way.

Well the OP doesn't stipulate he would be on the crappiest team in today's NHL so your comments aren't really relevant.

But do you seriously think those teammates would score over 1.10 PPG if Wayne, who just broke the NHL points record the previous year, is not on that team in 1982? I think a "NO WAY" fits here a lot better.

Hypothetical scenarios don't work very well when you are trying go against reality.

 

[canucks4ever]

Well the OP doesn't stipulate he would be on the crappiest team in today's NHL so your comments aren't really relevant.

But do you seriously think those teammates would score over 1.10 PPG if Wayne, who just broke the NHL points record the previous year, is not on that team in 1982? I think a "NO WAY" fits here a lot better.

Hypothetical scenarios don't work very well when you are trying go against reality.

Well in today's era, the #1 overall pick is usually drafted by the crappiest team. If people want to adjust gretzky's totals to todays era, they have to factor in that hes likely playing with neal/kunitz caliber of players.

So are you saying coffey, kurri and messier dont develop into stars without gretzky? It seems like thats what your implying.

 

[Big Phil]

Gretzky may have finished 3rd in the scoring race in 1998,but he was 7th in ppg and his goal totals were absurdly low. A 38 year old sakic scored 100 points in 2007, yet a prime sakic never even won an art ross. A 37 year old Beliveau was runner up for the hart trophy. In Marios 43 game return, he was outscored by Jagr.

If Gretzky played in today's era, he would still win his art rosses, but not by the same margin. Especially when you consider the fact that this is a salary cap era and he wont be playing on a dynasty level team.

Do people really think that if you drop Gretzky on the nashville predators or minnesota wild, hes going to outscore Crosby and Ovechkin by 60-70 points?

Well...........

1981 Oilers:
Gretzky - 164 points
Kurri - 75
Messier - 63
Callighen - 60
Anderson - 53

You get the point. This was a 19 year old Gretzky on a team that was well below .500 and he shattered the NHL record book this year by claiming the single season assist and points record. He outpointed a prime Marcel Dionne by 29 points and truth be told he hadn't even taken off to superman level yet.

I think he'd be fine.

 

[canucks4ever]

Well...........

1981 Oilers:
Gretzky - 164 points
Kurri - 75
Messier - 63
Callighen - 60
Anderson - 53

You get the point. This was a 19 year old Gretzky on a team that was well below .500 and he shattered the NHL record book this year by claiming the single season assist and points record. He outpointed a prime Marcel Dionne by 29 points and truth be told he hadn't even taken off to superman level yet.

I think he'd be fine.

Yeah, he would win art rosses by that type of margin, not 60-70 points.