How many cups do the Johnny-Matty era Leafs win?

[Jimmy Firecracker]

My basic point when I talked about experience for Defense is if the leafs plan on winning with a top 4 of:

Morgan Rielly
Travis Dermott
Timothy Liljegren
Rasmus Sandin

That is at least 5 years away from winning a cup if everything works out perfect

No.

We’re looking at:

Rielly-(blank)
Gardiner/Dermott-Zaitsev

Or switch the order of the pairings. That’s the two year outlook, with the possibility of Liljegren or a solid D via trade with the surplus of young talent/prospects in the system.

 

[boredmale]

No.

We’re looking at:

Rielly-(blank)
Gardiner/Dermott-Zaitsev

Unless that blank is Drew Doughty or Victor Hedman, That is not a top 5 I would bet on

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

They’re on the same trajectory, more or less. Matthews may even be better. They’re roughly trending to be same level, whether you like it or not. Less accomplished, obviously, but that’s what happens when you’re 20 lol.

With those 86 points, Tavares was second in scoring. Tell me when Yzerman ever did that. Tell me when Sakic and Fedorov ever beat that. All that’s missing is a cup, but that’s on the way. Sorry dude, they’re comparables, like it or lump it.

Haha yes, because actual offensive production doesn't matter and all that matters is placement in scoring. So Jamie Benn is pretty much on par with Wayne Gretzky's 215 point season since, you know, both were scoring champions.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

This post -> Hornets nest...

Its funny how all of the sudden Leafs have become the best team in the NHL (that's what it feels like), only because of one player signing,
a player (center) who isn't even one of the best in the NHL, far from it. Top of that...Matthews, who supposedly already is one
of the best players, is going for his 3rd season in the NHL, Johnny&Matty era?, what era?,
how many cups?, aren't the leafs still rebuilding?.

Not dissing, just questioning.
Not dissing, just discussing.

 

[GongShowWilly]

hopefully one

 

[BruinsFan37]

They have a good chance at least one, but zero is just a likely at this point.

0-2 would be my guess if I could say a range (2 being extremely generous), but I'll go with 1.

If I was giving odds I'd say:

1 - 45%
0 - 45%
2 - 10%
3 or more -- haha no what are you thinking.

They need a couple more pieces to be a perennial cup contender. Three or more at this point is just being a silly Leafs fan.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Not with their defense. If Toronto decides to stay the course with it's younger recently drafted defensemen + Reilly, that would put them at least 4 if not 5 years away from any legit chance at the cup(and that assumes that at least 2 of them pan out as expected)

I know leaf fans like pointing to Washington's rag tag group of defensemen but one thing I noticed on that group that Toronto lacks is experience.

Not only the defence. The Leafs are built as a soft team. Washington, VGK, TB, and The Jets all have the components on being hard teams to play against too. They all have a size component that makes them hard to beat in the playoffs. They wear you down. It's no coincidence they were the final 4 teams. Being built for the regular season and being built for the playoffs are entirely different things. This is why the Leafs have not won a playoff rd in 15 years. Tom Wilson, Reeves, Buff, Hedman, are the type of players they do not possess. The reality is winning one cup is hard enough, winning a couple is near impossible. Let''s start with just winning one rd, and with a smallish soft line up in playoff hockey, we will truly see if they can win 4 rds in the Stanley cup playoffs. I don't see it with their present make up.

 

[HarrisonFord]

10

 

[bert]

Where is the 5+ option.

 

[1865]

You don't win the cup without a defense. You get through a round or two only to bomb out to a better defensive side. It's just how it generally works.

I expect Toronto to address this, but it will cost them some forward depth i'm sure.

 

[X66]

McDavid
Crosby
Malkin
Backstrom
Kopitar
Bergeron
Stamkos

Sorry which one is he better than on this list? Maybe Stamkos. That’s it.

Top ten is more like it, but not a top five. Was he a top five center before or after signing with the Leafs?

Not much educating needed here.

I've been saying he's a top 5 since before he signed with the Leafs. You can go back and check if you like.

On that list you provided, he's better than all those guys minus McDavid, Crosby and Malkin.

He's been top 3 for GAR(Goals above Replacement) since 2015. *Note this is all forwards.

He's been top 10 for DGAR(Defensive Goals above Replacement since last year. *Note this is all forwards

In the last two seasons, Tavares is in the 95th percentile for controlled zone entries, zone exits, shot assists.

From TheAthletic: Here’s a list of players who finished in the 70th percentile of shot rate and 95th percentile in shot assist rate since 2016:

• Artemi Panarin
• Connor McDavid
• Jack Eichel
• John Tavares
• Nikita Kucherov
• Patrick Kane

He's been right there with Crosby the last few years as well

Not saying he's better than Crosby but he's been amazing on a team that gave him nothing to work with all these years.

So yeah, definitely a top 5 center IMO, and it'll be more apparent this year.

He's going to have more help now than he's ever had, and that should scare the league.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I've been saying he's a top 5 since before he signed with the Leafs. You can go back and check if you like.

On that list you provided, he's better than all those guys minus McDavid, Crosby and Malkin.

He's been top 3 for GAR(Goals above Replacement) since 2015. *Note this is all forwards.

He's been top 10 for DGAR(Defensive Goals above Replacement since last year. *Note this is all forwards

In the last two seasons, Tavares is in the 95th percentile for controlled zone entries, zone exits, shot assists.

From TheAthletic: Here’s a list of players who finished in the 70th percentile of shot rate and 95th percentile in shot assist rate since 2016:

• Artemi Panarin
• Connor McDavid
• Jack Eichel
• John Tavares
• Nikita Kucherov
• Patrick Kane

He's been right there with Crosby the last few years as well

Not saying he's better than Crosby but he's been amazing on a team that gave him nothing to work with all these years.

So yeah, definitely a top 5 center IMO, and it'll be more apparent this year.

He's going to have more help now than he's ever had, and that should scare the league.

Fancy stats and charts aside. Tavares had almost a career year last season with 84 points. He played with a Center that had 1 more point than him with 85 points last year. That's a lot of help down the middle. The Isles missed the playoffs.

What do you conclude from this?

 

[Nithoniniel]

I'm hoping for one. It would be such a thrill, and for once looks like a somewhat realistic scenario. Talking about several is just greedy, and something best reserved for after we have won at least once.

What do you conclude from this?

That you are desperate to avoid having to address the point made?

Haha yes, because actual offensive production doesn't matter and all that matters is placement in scoring. So Jamie Benn is pretty much on par with Wayne Gretzky's 215 point season since, you know, both were scoring champions.

Placement in scoring helps take era adjustments into account, and is a very common tool used in historical comparisons. I sincerely doubt you don't understand the difference between that and what you did in your example, so I have to wonder why you are being purposefully obtuse. It serves no one.

 

[filip85]

I hope for zero.

 

[X66]

Fancy stats and charts aside. Tavares had almost a career year last season with 84 points. He played with a Center that had 1 more point than him with 85 points last year. That's a lot of help down the middle. The Isles missed the playoffs.

What do you conclude from this?

Islanders have terrible goaltending, bad coach and a bad team overall?

Tavares is joining a 100+ point team.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Islanders have terrible goaltending and a bad team overall?

Correct on the bolded, massively incorrect on the other part. But Tavares did have help in a 85 point calder winning Center last year. He didn't have no help as you inferred. How many other #1 Centers in the NHL have a 85 point Center on their team and still miss the playoffs?

 

[boredmale]

Islanders have terrible goaltending, bad coach and a bad team overall?

For the sake of argument a terrible team defensively, offensively they were perfectly fine. I am not sure Toronto will give Tavares the same leeway the Islanders did, how will that make a difference to his offensive output?

 

[Steve336]

Islanders have terrible goaltending, bad coach and a bad team overall?

Tavares is joining a 100+ point team.

You forgot the Isles also have THE worst attendance in the NHL and are somewhat homeless as they work out arena issues. Who on earth would want to play in a city like that?

 

[Brobust]

I've been saying he's a top 5 since before he signed with the Leafs. You can go back and check if you like.

On that list you provided, he's better than all those guys minus McDavid, Crosby and Malkin.

He's been top 3 for GAR(Goals above Replacement) since 2015. *Note this is all forwards.

He's been top 10 for DGAR(Defensive Goals above Replacement since last year. *Note this is all forwards

In the last two seasons, Tavares is in the 95th percentile for controlled zone entries, zone exits, shot assists.

From TheAthletic: Here’s a list of players who finished in the 70th percentile of shot rate and 95th percentile in shot assist rate since 2016:

• Artemi Panarin
• Connor McDavid
• Jack Eichel
• John Tavares
• Nikita Kucherov
• Patrick Kane

He's been right there with Crosby the last few years as well

Not saying he's better than Crosby but he's been amazing on a team that gave him nothing to work with all these years.

So yeah, definitely a top 5 center IMO, and it'll be more apparent this year.

He's going to have more help now than he's ever had, and that should scare the league.

Buddy, you're wasting your time.

Let Tavares play in Toronto alongside Marner. People will shut up quickly once that happens.

 

[GoJetsGo55]

None with that defense.

Rielly is really good.
Gardiner is okay but can elevate his play at times.
Zaitsev is meh
Hainsey can have stretched but he wears out.
The rest is meh.

Rielly will get even better
Zaitsev can get better.
Gardiner is gone after his contract I think.

Sandin and Liljegren look promising but are at least 2 to 3 years away.

I don't know who else is in the pipe.

My guess is they have to bring in someone from the outside via trade or FA but how much space are they going to have once everyone is paid?

They probably have the top center depth in the league though. I think they will be a beast in the regular season but things tighten up quick in the playoffs and you need to have guys that can shut the door.

 

[Brock Radunske]

Crosby didn’t even make the playoffs his first season in the league, and didn’t win a round until his third season.

Ovechkin didn’t make the playoffs until his third season, and didn’t win a round until his fourth season.

Stamkos didn’t make the playoffs until his third season.

MacKinnon made the playoffs his first season, but failed to do so again until four seasons later. He still hasn’t won a round.

Barkov didn’t make the postseason until his third year, still hasn’t won a round.

Point is, Matthews and company aren’t even close to needing concern over not winning a playoff round yet. They’re already tracking better than the aforementioned five players first two years in the league when it comes to team success.

Yeah, but none of those guys (except 1 ) wears a Leafs jersey, so they all get a pass.

 

[Brock Radunske]

None with that defense.

Rielly is really good.
Gardiner is okay but can elevate his play at times.
Zaitsev is meh
Hainsey can have stretched but he wears out.
The rest is meh.

Rielly will get even better
Zaitsev can get better.
Gardiner is gone after his contract I think.

Sandin and Liljegren look promising but are at least 2 to 3 years away.

I don't know who else is in the pipe.

My guess is they have to bring in someone from the outside via trade or FA but how much space are they going to have once everyone is paid?

They probably have the top center depth in the league though. I think they will be a beast in the regular season but things tighten up quick in the playoffs and you need to have guys that can shut the door.

I agree with this post 100%

 

[The Winter Soldier]

For the sake of argument a terrible team defensively, offensively they were perfectly fine. I am not sure Toronto will give Tavares the same leeway the Islanders did, how will that make a difference to his offensive output?

I made an edit to my earlier reply because the poster was only partially correct, didn't see the 2nd part of what he wrote initially. Where on the second part he was massively incorrect. People that actually watched the Isles last year would notice they were a good team that had bad goaltending and injuries on D.

But the main point here is. For some to call Tavares a top 5 Center in the NHL where he almost had a career year last season, where he had a 85 point Rookie Center playing behind him, by the end of the year was playing ahead of him. And that top 5 Center was still not able to lift the Isles into the playoffs, does make a succinct point in this thread. Adding Tavares does not guarantee anything. The discussion of multiple cups is very premature.

 

[boredmale]

I made an edit to my earlier reply because the poster was only partially correct, didn't see what he wrote initially. Where on the second part he was massively incorrect. People that actually watched the Isles last year would notice they were a good team that had bad goaltending and injuries on D.

I think more then bad goaltending it was a terrible defensive system. Everybody looked like a chicken with their head cut off in the defensive zone so it's hard blaming the goalies only. Hopefully Tortz can shore that part of the system up and what they lose in risky high end offensive plays, they will make up in time spent in the offensive zone

 

[X66]

None with that defense.

Rielly is really good.
Gardiner is okay but can elevate his play at times.
Zaitsev is meh
Hainsey can have stretched but he wears out.
The rest is meh.

Rielly will get even better
Zaitsev can get better.
Gardiner is gone after his contract I think.

Sandin and Liljegren look promising but are at least 2 to 3 years away.

I don't know who else is in the pipe.

My guess is they have to bring in someone from the outside via trade or FA but how much space are they going to have once everyone is paid?

They probably have the top center depth in the league though. I think they will be a beast in the regular season but things tighten up quick in the playoffs and you need to have guys that can shut the door.

I've mentioned this before, they'll be a lot better defensively next year and it will really surprise people.

The reasons are:

They've added an elite-two way center in Tavares, and that will help a lot.

Now every line is defensively responsible

Marleau-Matthews-Nylander
Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Johnsson-Kadri-Kapanen
Ennis/Leivo-Lindholm-Brown
^^ Every single line has multiple players that are very solid defensively.

They have a high end left side on D with Rielly, Gardiner and Dermott, but their right side last year was awful.

That will improve with Polak out the door and Carrick in(the Leafs were a much, much better team when this was the case).

And it will likely mean a reduced role for Hainsey. The Leafs right side under Dubas, will look to be puck movers with speed, and there are plenty of players in the organization that can help there. They'll be a lot more mobile back there.

They can definitely add to the back end and I hope they do somehow, but there is no rush. There are some creative pairings they can come up with that would look interesting.

But yeah, they're going to be fine.