How long the rebuilding will take?

[Broilers]

What is your opinion when we reach the point to contend. My opinion is that we need 3 years unloading and drafting high and actually after that start real rebuilding which takes 3-4 years. The last year and this year are unloading years and probably also the next year.

During the unloading years we need to trade away also most of our young veterans for picks or 2 for 1 deals even 3 for 1 deals needs to take place.

Rebuilding years are the years when our picks will be implemented to the roster (not just our big3) and we are making UfA signings to get missing pieces.

My top six is this after unloading years

Hall ???? Hemsky
Pääjärvi Gagner Eberle

And bottom six

Omark Horcoff ????
Hartikainen Pitlick Stortini
McIntyre
Dmen

???? Whitney
Gilbert Smid
Petry Peckham
Plante

DD
Roy

As a conclusion the following guys are in the trade block
Cogliano
Brule
Penner
Vandermeer
Foster
Fraser

We have also some unmovable assets, we just need to release them
Jones
Chorney
Souray
Jacques
BullinWall

Click to read more...

 

[Gone]

The rebuilding years really started in about 1991/92 when KLowe was selected Captain of the Oilers .... so we are really on about year 18 of the rebuild. My guess another 18 years and we should be almost there.

 

[The Human Torch]

If Kevin Lowe didn't completely lose his ability to make even one good decision about 30 seconds after the 2006 SCF, and then if the guy hired to replace him showed any decision-making abilities whatsoever we'd probably be in pretty good shape right now.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

My guess is as long as the kids take to become dominant contributors.

 

[CorpseFX]

i always said a while ago 4-5 years realistically

but we also have question what is the actual apex of this "rebuild" and how also it could collapse, flounder, never reach fruition, stall in development, etc...

 

[Halibut]

My guess is as long as the kids take to become dominant contributors.

That and find people to fill the holes in our lineup, specifically on the blueline.

You cant pin it down to a specific time frame because there are so many variables. If the three guys we have are all superstars and suddenly start to dominate games then the rebuild could be over really quick. We'd probably also need Whitney and Gilbert to bump their game up a level and at least 2 more dmen to do the same. Then you need the right coaching and a system that works with what you have, I think Renney and his team might have to change their system to really take advantage of our strengths.

 

[Tom Brady]

Probably around 4 years we desperately need a goalie & 2 good defenseman

 

[La Bamba]

1 or 2 more high draft picks, we gotta fill the void for a #1 Defencemen and Centermen.

 

[Stoneman89]

This is year one, ground zero. Last year was a write-off. To reiterate what I've said before.

Year one - lottery pick once again as youngsters get their feet wet. Continue to weed out the bad contracts and non-competitors.

Year two - another high pick, probably top 10, but young kids developing, and a couple pieces added.

Year three - contend for playoff spot, hopefully finish 7th or 8th, add a couple more pieces. Get your goalie to contend.

Year four - make the move to go for the division and top 3. This is the year you can finally make the move on some UFA's


Year Five - trade some of the draft accumulations and future for pieces to help now. Plan the parade.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

That and find people to fill the holes in our lineup, specifically on the blueline.

You cant pin it down to a specific time frame because there are so many variables. If the three guys we have are all superstars and suddenly start to dominate games then the rebuild could be over really quick. We'd probably also need Whitney and Gilbert to bump their game up a level and at least 2 more dmen to do the same. Then you need the right coaching and a system that works with what you have, I think Renney and his team might have to change their system to really take advantage of our strengths.

Agree, but that's all part and parcel of the "Kids", though I will say that dominant "game breaker" type players can sure help make up for holes in the line up.

 

[rigger]

3 years till we are considered a sure playoff team after that it becomes a balancing game with cap and vets and rookies.

 

[Boilers*]

3 years till we are considered a sure playoff team after that it becomes a balancing game with cap and vets and rookies.

Yeah, I'll say three years if they do things right. Other clubs would do it in two, but we have some horrible contracts to weed out.

 

[oilsands]

It may never work. Many expansion franchises are in a perpetual state of rebuilding (Atlanta, also Columbus).

Just because you draft some nice players does not mean you get a dance ticket to the playoffs punched every year. Look at Atlanta with Kovy, Savard, and Heatley/Hossa.. all in their primes - nada.

It's going to take a hell of a lot more than #6, #23, #10, and #1 picks to go anywhere.

 

[copperandblue]

It may never work. Many expansion franchises are in a perpetual state of rebuilding (Atlanta, also Columbus).

Just because you draft some nice players does not mean you get a dance ticket to the playoffs punched every year. Look at Atlanta with Kovy, Savard, and Heatley/Hossa.. all in their primes - nada.

It's going to take a hell of a lot more than #6, #23, #10, and #1 picks to go anywhere.

Yup, which raises the question;

Based on who is already here, who do you picture hanging on to and as such who/what do you need between today and competing?

I figure atleast 6, more likely 7 spots need to get addressed.

 

[Seedling]

Patient, you must be.

Sorry, I couldn't find the Yoda quote on Youtube that the title of this thread needs.

 

[Broilers]

This is year one, ground zero. Last year was a write-off. To reiterate what I've said before.

Year one - lottery pick once again as youngsters get their feet wet. Continue to weed out the bad contracts and non-competitors.

Year two - another high pick, probably top 10, but young kids developing, and a couple pieces added.

Year three - contend for playoff spot, hopefully finish 7th or 8th, add a couple more pieces. Get your goalie to contend.

Year four - make the move to go for the division and top 3. This is the year you can finally make the move on some UFA's

Year Five - trade some of the draft accumulations and future for pieces to help now. Plan the parade.

I like your plan but this year can be the write off year too because we have so many non competitors to kick out of the team and Souray is really making me feel sour,

 

[CorpseFX]

put it this way, the vets here suck and arent part of a "CORE" worth having. which sets this team back even further.

 

[OF17]

I think 3 years to playoff contender and 5 to cup contender isn't unreasonable. With any luck, this summer either the #1 center or #1 dman hole will be plugged in dramatic fashion, leaving only one real glaring hole on the team. Goaltending will have to be sorted out, but that's one area where signing a veteran for $2 million can be just as good as having a young stud signed for $4.5 million.

The team is fortunate to have almost an entire top 6 of extremely skilled, young players. Adding an Adam Larsson would go a long ways to bringing the defense up to the same level. Plus we can reasonably count on one of Petry, Plante, and Marincin developing into a solid defenseman. The blue doesn't look too far away from being good.

One area of the Oilers' prospect pool that's really quite underrated is the forwards slated for the bottom-6. Lander, Pitlick, Hamilton, Vande Velde, Hartikainen, and others are tracking well. A third line of Lander-Horcoff-Pitlick in the future could pay huge dividends in the playoffs, checking top opposition and having enough offensive ability to keep the opposing defense on their toes.

There are some nice pieces here, and there are only going to be more coming in in the next couple summers. "MB" Stu has done incredible work since taking over as head scout.

 

[awesomo]

If Kevin Lowe didn't completely lose his ability to make even one good decision about 30 seconds after the 2006 SCF, and then if the guy hired to replace him showed any decision-making abilities whatsoever we'd probably be in pretty good shape right now.

Hhahaha

and if i chose the right numbers for the lottery I wouldnt be posting here right now

 

[Draiskull]

Depends on who we get at this draft round 1. If its an impact forward then our rebuild would be done after next season. If we get a Dman then it'll be longer.

This should be our last season of sucking. The rebuild started when we selected Gagner.

 

[Broilers]

Depends on who we get at this draft round 1. If its an impact forward then our rebuild would be done after next season. If we get a Dman then it'll be longer.

This should be our last season of sucking. The rebuild started when we selected Gagner.

I disagree because we made offersheet to Penner and lost 3 picks year 2008. Anyway we need 3 number 1 components center, dman, goalie.

It is a chance that Roy or DD can become real good number 1 guy.
Probably Gagner will not fill the role of number 1 guy in the SC contending team.. I hope we can draft center and dman next year. We just need 2 first rounders which means exit to Penner/Hemsky or both

 

[thadd]

This year we'll get a top 3 pick for sure.

In 2 years maybe 5th-8th

In 3 years we could be a playoff bubble team.

In 4 years we should be expected to be a dangerous team.

We're almost certainly going to draft a d-man this year. It'll take a few years for him to develop into a good top 4 player, let alone a #1 defenseman.

That's a long time and for this reason I think we should trade both Penner and Hemsky this year if we're getting something bound to be a jewel down the line in return.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

2 seasons beyond this one IMO is when the rebuilding ends and the remaining holes on the club will begin to get filled via free agency and trade.

Hopefully a top 3 pick this year, maybe a top 7 pick the year after, and making a push for the postseason in year 3. Of course this depends on the development of our crop of youngsters. It could be quicker if a number of things come together. Ideally there will be 2 more solid drafts to finalize the rebuild as we know it.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

This year we'll get a top 3 pick for sure.

In 2 years maybe 5th-8th

In 3 years we could be a playoff bubble team.

In 4 years we should be expected to be a dangerous team.

We're almost certainly going to draft a d-man this year. It'll take a few years for him to develop into a good top 4 player, let alone a #1 defenseman.

That's a long time and for this reason I think we should trade both Penner and Hemsky this year if we're getting something bound to be a jewel down the line in return.

If we have a top 3 pick and Larsson is gone or we feel that one of the centers is the BPA, why would we draft a d-man? IMO #1 center is a definite need on this squad long term.

 

[ThePresent83]

2013-2014 will be our be our first year of playoffs... 2014-2015 the cup shall be ours!

We need:

-#1 Center
-Big 2-way 3rd line winger to play with Horcoff in a few years
-1 top pairing D man (god willing its Marincin) , 2 if Petry doesnt pan out
-we need our 5-6 Dmen to separate themselves from the tweeners below... Plante should be able to do this, and maybe Peckham if he continues his modest success
-#1 Goalie... Hopefully Roy, if not, a free agent signing when we are ready to push... goaltending isnt the franchise key it used to be

Hall - Couturier - Hemsky
MPS - Gagner - Eberle
UFA - Horcoff - Brule
UFA - UFA - UFA

Petry - Marincin
Gilbert - Whitney
Peckham - Plante

Roy (or UFA signing)
Dubnyk