Speculation: How does Tampa get under the Cap this offseason?

[Pure Slaughter Value]

4.5 AAV for Sergachev is a steal.
I think no matter what, Tampa is f***ed.

No matter how f***ked Tampa Bay is or St. Louis is if Pietrangelo bolts one thing is for certain.

Both will be f***ked coming off Cup wins (premature for TB but it is looking like it).

I would like my org to be that kind of f***ked

I'd go five straight years of being the worst team in the league if I had just won a Cup.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Step 1: Find out who you want to move from all those NTC.
- Killorn with a 16 team trade list
- Gourde, Johnson, Palat, McDonagh... all with full NTC

Step 2: If Killorn puts 16 teams with cap no cap space on his list and the others with full NTC don't waive, Start Panicking!

15 players signed with $5.3M in cap space. Things were looking alright for them before Covid came along. Cap projected to be $84M - $88M range.

Might have to trade Cirelli, Coleman, and Paquette and replace them with $800k contracts. That would be 16 players signed with $7.15M in cap space. Give Sergachev a 1 year contract at $4M. Cernak gets $1.25M. 18 players signed with $1.9M. Two more players at $950k. 20 man roster

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

you dont understand the concept of a "win now mode", do you?

What? Thats not even remotely related to offer sheets

 

[Stuzchuk]

What? Thats not even remotely related to offer sheets

actually it is because a mid to late first round pick dont do noting for TB next year

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

actually it is because a mid to late first round pick dont do noting for TB next year

Ok and? Why would either of Sergachev or Cirelli sign an offer sheet with an obviously worse team unless its north of 7M?

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

They are probably going to look at moving guys like Johnson and Palat if they're willing to waive

 

[EXTRAS]

This is what happens when you sign a goalie to a 10m aav contract. When it was clear vasi wanted big money they should have traded him for a big haul, like shestyorkin++ or sorokin+++

 

[Hasbro]

so explain this to me... how is he supposed to "have deal for Killorn, Johnson, Palat or Gourde" when they all have NTC? This summer out of this list only Killorn will have to summit a list of no trade team. The other 3 are still protected for another year or so...

IMO they are in deep shit this summer

Yeah, he maybe talking to some folks, but asking players in the middle of the finals where they’ll take a trade to is a bad idea.

 

[Stuzchuk]

Ok and? Why would either of Sergachev or Cirelli sign an offer sheet with an obviously worse team unless its north of 7M?

JB: Sorry Anthony that's the best that we can do for this contract. I promise we're going to offer a better contract next time
AC: What?!!? you're offering me 3.250M for two years? I guess I'll wait and see what the future brings for me

... ...
one week later
... ...
SY: Hi Anthony, how are you? Are you close to an agreement with the lightning regarding a new contract?
AC: Actually no, we're kind of far apart
SY: Well if we offer you 3 years at 6.4M how does this sound for you?
AC: Sure, let me get a pen....

 

[Scintillating10]

I like math problems. This is a good one.

I tried to calculate how Tampa could get under the Cap this season.

I think a good way to start is by calling up former GM Steve Yzerman, and offering him Cirelli, Killorn, and Coburn for one of Detroit's forward prospects, like Svetchnikov, Rasmussen or Veleno and a middle round pick. Instantly gives Detroit a 2nd line.

That would save the Lighntning $6.15 million in Cap Space. Move Mc Ilhinney, who is good value for a backup, and you have $7.45 million in additional Cap space. Or $13.783,333 in Cap space, with only 12 players signed.

So how do you make it work?

This is what I came up with.

Sergachev, long term, 6 years 4.5 million AAV, low value, but Sergachev gets paid to stay in Tampa for awhile, which I think he would like.

Cernak, on a $1.75 million AAV 2 year bridge

Shattenkirk staying in Tampa for $1 million

Cal Foote jumps up at $925 000

Bogosian or Schenn for league minimum $700 000

Equals $8.875 million in defensive investment.

4 ELC RFA forwards in Stephens, Volkov, Verhaeghe and Joseph that I gave slighty above their 5% QOs, at a sum of $3.25 million.

Sign a backup goalie at league minimum.

Total salary expenditure $12.825 million.

Leaves the Lightning with roughly $900 000 in Cap Space, with some prospects at forward that could make the jump.

Sound feasible?

If a team was smart?? Off sheet Sergechev for 7m. Tampa sure to match. Circle back and offer sheet Cirelli for 4.2m. Give up 2nd. And Cernak 5 m. Give up 1st and 3rd. That's 16.2 m increase. Tampa can't match them all

 

[cslebn]

Ask Stamkos to waive his NMC

 

[PKWeber]

I think Sergachev signs for more than that. Also, Lightning won't deal Cirelli

BriseBois likely already has a trade lined up for at least one of Killorn, Johnson, Palat or Gourde. With how good Gourde has been this post-season I would actually take him on the Habs. They probably need to deal at least 2 of those guys, maybe 3 and they will likely need to acquire some salary back in these deals. That will save them some cap, but will greatly weaken their line-up. If you add in some kids and some minimum salary free agents, they should come in under the cap.

I also wonder if they don't try to trade McDonagh. With enough whealing and dealing with the players mentionned BriseBois should be able to build a decent team under the cap while keeping his core players. But he needs to be working the phone, right now

Why would the Habs want to add another undersized player? They are already too small to begin with and adding Gourde does nothing to help the team.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

JB: Sorry Anthony that's the best that we can do for this contract. I promise we're going to offer a better contract next time
AC: What?!!? you're offering me 3.250M for two years? I guess I'll wait and see what the future brings for me

... ...
one week later
... ...
SY: Hi Anthony, how are you? Are you close to an agreement with the lightning regarding a new contract?
AC: Actually no, we're kind of far apart
SY: Well if we offer you 3 years at 6.4M how does this sound for you?
AC: Sure, let me get a pen....

Is SY supposed to be Yzerman? Because that makes sense hes just gonna trade a top 5 pick for a 2C. Also you really think he would choose freaking Detroit over Tampa? And a 6.4M x 3 year deal has like an 8M+ qualifying offer at the end. Where 3.25M for 2 years is like a 5M QO at the end.

 

[JoemAvs]

It will be awfully tough and involve them losing a few trades very hard I guess...

I still believe people haven't yet grasped how hard it will be to create capspace.
I mean Tampa has a ton of players other teams would want. But most of the guys they would want to rid themselves off have NTCs that they shouldn't objectively be inclined to waive and even if they do, it will be extremely difficult to move them without having to take some sort of salary in return which they really can't afford to do...

People have fallen in love with Gourde again in these playoffs but he has a full NTC and I personally would want no part of his contract especially if I don't get to send any salary in return right now...
I am not sure that teams will hand out offersheets this summer due to the circumstances but if they do, odds are that the Lightning will be in deep shit. But honestly if they win two more games and the cup who really cares?

 

[I am Canadian]

Could see Toronto throwing a 3.5-4M offer sheet at Cernak giving up a 2nd. Would be good value

 

[RockyMtnRedhawk]

If I'm Joe Sakic, I'm offer sheeting Cirelli at $6.5M x 5 years. If they find a way to match, so be it.

 

[DFC]

Any RFA who stays will be bridged. It's a pretty clear pattern.

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

maybe let them win the cup first?

 

[Djp]

Tampa has $5M in space with 10/3/2

They sign Serg and Cirelli to bridges at a combined $8M
They trade 2 of the 4F ( palat, Johnson, gourde, Killorn) for$1M players or picks/ prospects. This saves thrm $8M after factoring in roster replacement
Sign Cernak to $2M bridge
Sign/ promote 2 D for $1M.

Now team is 11/7/2 with $1M of space. If you sign players to vet min and shave off the money Aerg and Cirelli get thrn you can get a full roster at $81M

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

One thing I could see them doing is making a trade with Buffalo for Jack Eichel. Gives Eichel a chance at the cup, improved top six and makes Tampa a solid contender for years to come. But what else could be done here is Tampa getting rid of bad contracts in order to keep Brayden Point and Anthony Cirelli. Like Yanni Gourde or Tyler Johnson contract heading to Buffalo as part of the deal.

I expect them to keep Johnson/Gourde to expose in the expansion draft as well as a 1st in 2022 and 3rd in 2022 as a sweetener for Seattle to take Johnson.

But what else they could do is sign Taylor Hall at a cheap contract for two years (two years at $4M per season), and maybe use him to be exposed to Seattle instead of needing to have Gourde or Johnson to be that one player that they need to expose. It also opens the door for Seattle to extend him with the money he'd want after maybe winning a cup with Tampa and possibly being Seattle's best player.

 

[SRHRangers]

I can't see Sergachev, Cernak, and Cirelli all taking bridge deals. That would be alot of luck.

If TB keeps 2 out of the 3, I would call that a win.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Depends if they can move one of Gourde/Johnson, and Coburn. If they can, they'll be able to keep all three prominent RFAs. If not, I guess Cernak is the odd man out.

 

[DomBarr]

I like math problems. This is a good one.

I tried to calculate how Tampa could get under the Cap this season.

I think a good way to start is by calling up former GM Steve Yzerman, and offering him Cirelli, Killorn, and Coburn for one of Detroit's forward prospects, like Svetchnikov, Rasmussen or Veleno and a middle round pick. Instantly gives Detroit a 2nd line.

That would save the Lighntning $6.15 million in Cap Space. Move Mc Ilhinney, who is good value for a backup, and you have $7.45 million in additional Cap space. Or $13.783,333 in Cap space, with only 12 players signed.

So how do you make it work?

This is what I came up with.

Sergachev, long term, 6 years 4.5 million AAV, low value, but Sergachev gets paid to stay in Tampa for awhile, which I think he would like.

Cernak, on a $1.75 million AAV 2 year bridge

Shattenkirk staying in Tampa for $1 million

Cal Foote jumps up at $925 000

Bogosian or Schenn for league minimum $700 000

Equals $8.875 million in defensive investment.

4 ELC RFA forwards in Stephens, Volkov, Verhaeghe and Joseph that I gave slighty above their 5% QOs, at a sum of $3.25 million.

Sign a backup goalie at league minimum.

Total salary expenditure $12.825 million.

Leaves the Lightning with roughly $900 000 in Cap Space, with some prospects at forward that could make the jump.

Sound feasible?

you are also missing that Palat, Johnson, and Gourde all have some value and will probably be on the block. Tampa needs to start to trade off their older vets to bring in younger cheaper players who can replace their contributions...

 

[I Like Eich]

If the Sabres don't end up on Killorn's 16 team no-trade list, I can see BUF being interested. We need scoring help on the wing, particularly in the middle of the lineup.

I wouldn't say I'm a huge fan of Killorn, but I'm not against the idea, the contract isn't terrible (3 yrs x $4.45m) and he's better than what we have currently.

The question then becomes what will Tampa want back. If it's strictly a cap-cut move, the Sabres can probably pretty easily put together an ELC player/pick/prospect package that would suffice for Killorn.

But Tampa is obviously in win-now mode... I'm sure they'd prefer something other than futures that will benefit them now, but not cost them much now. I'm not sure if they'll be able to find that anywhere, and I don't think BUF can help out there if that's the case.

 

[I Like Eich]

One thing I could see them doing is making a trade with Buffalo for Jack Eichel. Gives Eichel a chance at the cup, improved top six and makes Tampa a solid contender for years to come. But what else could be done here is Tampa getting rid of bad contracts in order to keep Brayden Point and Anthony Cirelli.

I expect them to keep Johnson to expose in the expansion draft as well as a 1st in 2022 and 3rd in 2022 as a sweetener for Seattle to take Johnson.

But what else they could do is sign Taylor Hall at a cheap contract for two years.

Thread: How does Tampa get under the cap this offseason?

Answer: Trade for a player with a $10m cap hit, of course!