Value of: High end package from New Jersey

[dgibb10]

Honestly, I think that GMs are starting to figure out than in todays post giant pads world the delta between a good goalie and “a guy” is bigger than it was in the past. I also think that fans make this erroneous connection between all the average goalies that have been moved in the past versus the top guys that just don’t ever get moved.

Goalies are more volatile than ever.

Last year's top 15 goalies in GSAx:
Sorokin, Saros, Ullmark, Helle, Shesty, Vasy, Gustafsson, Oetter, Samsonov, Swayman, Skinner, Georgiev, Montembault, Vitek, Kuemper

This year just 4 of those top 15 are back in the top 15.
Only 6 are even in the top 30.

5 of them are in the BOTTOM 15, including Vasy and Oettinger.

 

[wintersej]

Goalies are more volatile than ever.

Last year's top 15 goalies in GSAx:
Sorokin, Saros, Ullmark, Helle, Shesty, Vasy, Gustafsson, Oetter, Samsonov, Swayman, Skinner, Georgiev, Montembault, Vitek, Kuemper

This year just 4 of those top 15 are back in the top 15.
Only 6 are even in the top 30.

5 of them are in the BOTTOM 15, including Vasy and Oettinger.

I think that line of argument assumes GSAx has a lot of value. Without accounting for screens and horitzonal movement and defender positioning, as large factors as shot distance, type and velocity, it’s a really dubious stat.

 

[TBF1972]

Say again?

congrats

you found the edit button

if you become a mod you can even modify my post.

 

[TBF1972]

Three way?
Avs - ulnark Colorado gets the goalie we need

Devils - Georgiev and Josh Manso - devils get a physical RD and a 1A/1B Goalie

Bruins - NJ 2nd, Colorado first, Oskar O Boston gets first rounder a second rounder and a former 1rd winger

HOW FAR AM I OFF?

devils would add nearly 8m in cap hit. they already have hamilton, marino and nemec as rhd. unless dougie stays on the ltir the manson contract is a deal breaker.

 

[dgibb10]

I think that line of argument assumes GSAx has a lot of value. Without accounting for screens and horitzonal movement and defender positioning, as large factors as shot distance, type and velocity, it’s a really dubious stat.

You could do the same with sv% or virtually any goalie metric you like. Goalies are incredibly volatile.

 

[racamdim]

I'd be surprised if Ullmark gets 10th overall goalies don't get top 10 picks.

Corey Schneider says hello.

If Devils win 1OA they have to use the pick because they will have won the lottery twice in three years and won’t be able eligible to do so again for the next two years.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Corey Schneider says hello.

If Devils win 1OA they have to use the pick because they will have won the lottery twice in three years and won’t be able eligible to do so again for the next two years.

I still don't see Ullmark getting a top 10 pick, Corey
Schneider was over a decade ago

I think a much closer example would probably be what Freddy Andersen got which was a 1st and a future 2nd.

Even that is a distant example now but it's still probably more accurate than a #9 overall pick

 

[MasterofGrond]

Corey Schneider says hello.

Yeah and how did that work out, overall

 

[Xirik]

Yeah and how did that work out, overall

The only reason it didn't work out is because the Devils team was a empty husk after the 2012 cup run. No goalie could carry that mess anywhere.

 

[Nico Hischier]

Corey Schneider says hello.

If Devils win 1OA they have to use the pick because they will have won the lottery twice in three years and won’t be able eligible to do so again for the next two years.

The new draft lottery rule applies from 2022 going forward. The two devils lottery wins don’t count.

 

[Smitty426]

Yeah and how did that work out, overall

His numbers were insane, team blew!

 

[Smitty426]

Yeah. I don't really see him making huge revisions to the defence either.

So that's something that you probably have to figure out to get Marino going again.

Trade Bahl in a pkg for Petey.
I honestly think Hanifin would be a great add too.
Get a 4th line of FAs who grind (Fogele, Trenin, Lafferty, Duhaime) and you don't need a Gudas type on the blueline.
Hanifin- Hamilton
Hughes-Nemec
Petey/Siegenthaler-Marino

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Schneider was what, 26 when he was traded?

thats a lot different than Ullmark, who turns 31 in a few months.

 

[wintersej]

Schneider was what, 26 when he was traded?

thats a lot different than Ullmark, who turns 31 in a few months.

He was 27 and turned 28 during his first season in New Jersey, but your point still stands. Swayman, FWIW is 25.

 

[wintersej]

You could do the same with sv% or virtually any goalie metric you like. Goalies are incredibly volatile.

Ullmark is 1st in the NHL in save % over the last 5 years (min 100 games). 915, 917, 917, 938, 914. Two of those seasons were for the Sabres.

Only 5 of the top 13 goal scorers repeated in back to back seasons (there were 6 guys tied with 40 goals so cut it off at top 13). Incredibly volatile.

 

[HairyKneel]

Jesus what would the Devils offer for Thatcher?

 

[My3Sons]

Jesus what would the Devils offer for Thatcher?

She's been dead since 2013 so not all that much most likely.

 

[Xirik]

She's been dead since 2013 so not all that much most likely.

 

[dgibb10]

Ullmark is 1st in the NHL in save % over the last 5 years (min 100 games). 915, 917, 917, 938, 914. Two of those seasons were for the Sabres.

Only 5 of the top 13 goal scorers repeated in back to back seasons (there were 6 guys tied with 40 goals so cut it off at top 13). Incredibly volatile.

There are 30+ starting goalies and 300+ regular forwards.

Of the top 15 goalies from last year. More of them are bottom 15 goalies this year than top 15 goalies again.

Arguably 2 of the top 3 goalies from last year are Saros and Sorokin. They have both been average/below average goalies this year. You don't see that at other positions

How many top line forwards do you see randomly turn into bottom 6 guys out of nowhere in their mid 20s?

 

[My3Sons]

Oh please, as if you don't love my terrible puns.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Jesus what would the Devils offer for Thatcher?

me personally? A lot. A high end goalie, that isnt over 30, that is signed for 2 more years so we aren't necessarily tied long term? Thats the ideal candidate tbh.