Speculation: High-Cap/Low-Salary NHLers to Ottawa

[StuckOutHere]

Frederik Andersen makes a lot of sense for Ottawa. He would essentially fill a similar role he filled in Toronto four years ago, can probably be had for pick 52, and can be flipped at the deadline for basically the price you paid to acquire him (2nd round pick) or kept in the unlikely event everything clicks and Ottawa is sniffing a wildcard spot.

 

[Fig]

Frederik Andersen makes a lot of sense for Ottawa. He would essentially fill a similar role he filled in Toronto four years ago, can probably be had for pick 52, and can be flipped at the deadline for basically the price you paid to acquire him (2nd round pick) or kept in the unlikely event everything clicks and Ottawa is sniffing a wildcard spot.

I think Andersen makes more sense to a team like Buffalo looking to cut real cash salary but still compete.

 

[innitfam]

Frederik Andersen makes a lot of sense for Ottawa. He would essentially fill a similar role he filled in Toronto four years ago, can probably be had for pick 52, and can be flipped at the deadline for basically the price you paid to acquire him (2nd round pick) or kept in the unlikely event everything clicks and Ottawa is sniffing a wildcard spot.

Who is a reasonable replacement for Andersen who costs appreciably less? Like $1-$2M? Without downgrading?

 

[HolyGhost]

Sens are lining themselves up for teams 1st and 2nd rounders to take your teams crap. Using the oilers as an example. You want the sens to take Russell? Add a 3rd and the sens give you a 6th or add a 1st and the sens give a 3rd. Pretty obvious what the sens plan is

 

[Adele Dazeem]

Only guy that interests me on that list is Palat.

 

[StuckOutHere]

Who is a reasonable replacement for Andersen who costs appreciably less? Without downgrading?

Well, that's the big question for Toronto. If they go for a true tandem situation maybe Cam Talbot is the guy. Outside of one season he has had a pretty comparable output to Andersen. If you can sign him for $2.5M and ask him to play 41 games or less you are probably coming out of that swap up $2.5M in cap space and comparable performance. I understand if one could be skeptical but the numbers don't lie for Talbot in a tandem role.

 

[Fig]

Who is a reasonable replacement for Andersen who costs appreciably less? Like $1-$2M? Without downgrading?

Real cash doesn't seem like an issue for TML. They're willing to flex that muscle. It's the salary cap implications that might be more important. Furthermore, a slight downgrade on goal tending might be worth it to upgrade or ride out salary cap implications of the rest of the roster.

For instance, if you flip Andersen for a second and add slightly to that 2nd to acquire Kuemper for approximately the cost of a late first and save 1.5 mil in cap but pay more cash, it might be worth it roster structure wise.

I think CBJ is rumored to be looking to move a goalie, albeit I'm not convinced they'd like to move inter-conference. Maybe they successfully convince Vancouver to give them Demko with a rich package of futures... I dunno.

It's not guaranteed that TML will move Andersen, but there seems to be some options worth pursuing if they decide to do so.

Well, that's the big question for Toronto. If they go for a true tandem situation maybe Cam Talbot is the guy. Outside of one season he has had a pretty comparable output to Andersen. If you can sign him for $2.5M and ask him to play 41 games or less you are probably coming out of that swap up $2.5M in cap space and comparable performance. I understand if one could be skeptical but the numbers don't lie for Talbot in a tandem role.

Talbot made 2.75 AAV and is reportedly looking for a raise from the Flames or otherwise plus a legitimate shot at a starter role. No way you get him at 2.5 and/or ask him to downgrade to a potential 1B in a platoon.

 

[McJedi]

The issue is he is terrible. Doesn’t make sense for Ottawa. They want to at least get a guy who can contribute in a meaningful way. Avs would have to add a sweetener for sure!

I think you’d be right about sweetener. Not a huge one but something to make them take him with no retention. The 4.25mm in cap space would be well spent elsewhere by Sakic.

 

[seanlinden]

Who is a reasonable replacement for Andersen who costs appreciably less? Like $1-$2M? Without downgrading?

Nobody.

The only available goalies in the same tier as Andersen are Markstrom and Lehner -- both who are going to cost more than $5m.

The approach seems to be to pursue a tandem and hope you can get more out of Jack Campbell -- along with a guy who saves $1m or so, and is signed beyond this year.

 

[innitfam]

Nobody.

The only available goalies in the same tier as Andersen are Markstrom and Lehner -- both who are going to cost more than $5m.

The approach seems to be to pursue a tandem and hope you can get more out of Jack Campbell -- along with a guy who saves $1m or so, and is signed beyond this year.

I would think the cap savings would need to be more significant to pursue trading Andersen, though I suppose every dollar for cap room counts especially this year.

 

[Artanis]

Sens are lining themselves up for teams 1st and 2nd rounders to take your teams crap. Using the oilers as an example. You want the sens to take Russell? Add a 3rd and the sens give you a 6th or add a 1st and the sens give a 3rd. Pretty obvious what the sens plan is

Nothing is obvious with Melnyk in the picture.

 

[HolyGhost]

Nothing is obvious with Melnyk in the picture.

Disagree

 

[StuckOutHere]

Real cash doesn't seem like an issue for TML. They're willing to flex that muscle. It's the salary cap implications that might be more important. Furthermore, a slight downgrade on goal tending might be worth it to upgrade or ride out salary cap implications of the rest of the roster.

For instance, if you flip Andersen for a second and add slightly to that 2nd to acquire Kuemper for approximately the cost of a late first and save 1.5 mil in cap but pay more cash, it might be worth it roster structure wise.

I think CBJ is rumored to be looking to move a goalie, albeit I'm not convinced they'd like to move inter-conference. Maybe they successfully convince Vancouver to give them Demko with a rich package of futures... I dunno.

It's not guaranteed that TML will move Andersen, but there seems to be some options worth pursuing if they decide to do so.



Talbot made 2.75 AAV and is reportedly looking for a raise from the Flames or otherwise plus a legitimate shot at a starter role. No way you get him at 2.5 and/or ask him to downgrade to a potential 1B in a platoon.

Your points are 100% valid but I will add it is a flooded goalie market in a global pandemic and I doubt the Leafs are going to arbitrarily sit him for 41 games if he does throw up a .920 save percentage. He would have a chance to start, i'm just suggesting the Leafs would not guarantee it. The Leafs would also pay him in salary bonus if required which is an even bigger advantage as the season could stop at any point at 40, 50, 60 etc games and he'll be largely paid regardless. But you are right, he could probably find something either a) more lucrative or b) with more opportunity if he absolutely wanted to.

 

[seanlinden]

I would think the cap savings would need to be more significant to pursue trading Andersen, though I suppose every dollar for cap room counts especially this year.

Realistically... it's a little bit of cap savings, but also hoping to take advantage of the wide number of goalies available, and find a guy that you can afford to keep under next year's $81.5m cap.

 

[Papi 4 Hart]

Who is a reasonable replacement for Andersen who costs appreciably less? Like $1-$2M? Without downgrading?

Probably Corey Crawford, Braden Holtby or any of the goalies who are a bit older but the past years haven't been kind to them so they wont get as good of a return in a supply heavy market.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Nobody.

The only available goalies in the same tier as Andersen are Markstrom and Lehner -- both who are going to cost more than $5m.

The approach seems to be to pursue a tandem and hope you can get more out of Jack Campbell -- along with a guy who saves $1m or so, and is signed beyond this year.

Not making "appreciably less", but Raanta imo is the better goalie, especially for a tandem (when healthy). No slight on Andersen, but Raanta has been rock solid with a pretty rare degree of consistency.

That said, I think there is only a very narrow set of parameters in which TML trades Andersen and comes out of it as a stronger team. Very good, reliable goalie.

 

[Fig]

Your points are 100% valid but I will add it is a flooded goalie market in a global pandemic and I doubt the Leafs are going to arbitrarily sit him for 41 games if he does throw up a .920 save percentage. He would have a chance to start, i'm just suggesting the Leafs would not guarantee it. The Leafs will also pay him in salary bonus if required which is even bigger advantage as the season could stop at any point at 40, 50, 60 etc games and he'll be largely paid regardless. But you are right, he could probably find something either a) more lucrative or b) with more opportunity if he absolutely wanted to.

Fair, but from the Flames fans POV, many of us have no reservations paying Talbot up to 4 mil.

It's after the 4 mil mark where we'd start looking into other options. I'm not saying your idea is silly, I just honestly think the Flames wouldn't hesitate to give Talbot a bit of term if he agreed to 3.5 mil or less. Its at 4 and above we start blinking. Flames would easily outbid TML at 2.5 mil and not bother with anyone else on the goalie market. It's at 4 or above where many of us will guess the Flames will spend some time shopping around and doing a quick price comparison before circling back to Talbot.

Sooner or later though, Flames will need to get off the damn goalie carousel we've been on since Kipper retired. Many Flames fans hope to tie ourselves to a decent goalie long term this season and just ride or die.

 

[StuckOutHere]

I think Andersen makes more sense to a team like Buffalo looking to cut real cash salary but still compete.

I don't think its unreasonable to believe Ottawa doesn't want to compete this year. All it takes is for some of the youth to take the next step and maybe they are on the cusp of a wildcard spot. End of the day, you can't start every year saying we are playing for last place and I think you'd recoup most or all of your acquisition cost for Andersen at the deadline if you wanted to.

 

[seanlinden]

Not making "appreciably less", but Raanta imo is the better goalie, especially for a tandem (when healthy). No slight on Andersen, but Raanta has been rock solid with a pretty rare degree of consistency.

That said, I think there is only a very narrow set of parameters in which TML trades Andersen and comes out of it as a stronger team. Very good, reliable goalie.

Antti Raanta has only once played more than 33 games. He's also played the last 3 seasons on the Coyotes, where it doesn't even seem to matter who's in goal -- they end up having great numbers.

There is no upgrade in goal for the Leafs -- it's all about damage control with the flat cap and inability to resign Andersen.

 

[Fig]

I don't think its unreasonable to believe Ottawa doesn't want to compete this year. All it takes is for some of the youth to take the next step and maybe they are on the cusp of a wildcard spot. End of the day, you can't start every year saying we are playing for last place and I think you'd recoup most or all of your acquisition cost for Andersen at the deadline if you wanted to.

Senators' Eugene Melnyk pledges to spend close to salary cap from 2021–25 - Sportsnet.ca

Hmm... I guess Melnyk did say he would open the pocket book starting 2021. No idea if he meant 2020-2021 or 2021-2022 season (after the ED) and/or if Covid changes anything... but fair enough. Ottawa might indeed try to compete this coming season.

 

[StuckOutHere]

Fair, but from the Flames fans POV, many of us have no reservations paying Talbot up to 4 mil.

It's after the 4 mil mark where we'd start looking into other options. I'm not saying your idea is silly, I just honestly think the Flames wouldn't hesitate to give Talbot a bit of term if he agreed to 3.5 mil or less. Its at 4 and above we start blinking. Flames would easily outbid TML at 2.5 mil and not bother with anyone else on the goalie market. It's at 4 or above where many of us will guess the Flames will spend some time shopping around and doing a quick price comparison before circling back to Talbot.

Sooner or later though, Flames will need to get off the damn goalie carousel we've been on since Kipper retired. Many Flames fans hope to tie ourselves to a decent goalie long term this season and just ride or die.

Fair points, I just think when you look at the market, it's not going to be the Holtbys or Crawfords that may have to wait out the market and take a cut on a one year deal, its the more tandemy guys who have historically been under appreciated who will continue to be under appreciated. If you are sitting there a week into free agency and you can give Holtby or Talbot $3M for one year 200 hockey men are going to take the guy with the cup because it's the cup (TM).

 

[ElPrimeTime]

Yeah I've been pushing this deal for a long time now. Hope it gets done. Only issue would be Russels trade protection imo

I wonder if an Orpik situation might fit, where Russell agrees to be traded and gets bought out.

Capfriendly has the buyout cost at $500K for two years, with a cap hit of $3 mill this year and $500K next year.

So it would be Russell + a 4th for Rielly and then Russell is bought out.

Or is Ottawa not allowed any more buyouts with Phaneuf and Ryan already counting against their cap?

 

[BigFatCat999]

So what does the Ottawa look like now? Other than barren

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

I feel like Ottawa could take a look at LTIR contracts if they want to be really cheap and artificially make the floor. Should be pretty easy

 

[StuckOutHere]

I feel like Ottawa could take a look at LTIR contracts if they want to be really cheap and artificially make the floor. Should be pretty easy

If they are insured that makes sense, if they are not then i'm sure they'd rather pay a guy to actually play. They ultimately do need players to actually play the games without overexposing their prospects if they are not ready.