Player Discussion: Hickey

[wingnutks]

Hasn't +/- as a stat pretty much been discredited as a hockey version of Phrenology?

No... It just a fact. Only one player on the entire team is on the ice for less goals against per 60 minutes than Hickey(Ladd). Thomas Hickey has more minutes at even strength than JT does and Hickey gives up 1.5 LESS goals against per 60 mins. No Dman on the team is on for less goals against per 60 than Thomas Hickey. The one closest to Hickey is Pelech, and Pelech plays more even strength mins than Hickey. Our worst GA/60 Dman on the team.......drum roll......Leddy.

 

[Lame Lambert]

No. This team has made it abundantly clear that they view Pelech as the CDH replacement. The D will be:
Leddy - Boychuk
Pelech - Pulock
Davidson/Toews - Mayfield
Toews/Davidson

That’s horrific.

 

[beach]

Hasn't +/- as a stat pretty much been discredited as a hockey version of Phrenology?

Uhh, no.

 

[sabremike]

Uhh, no.

Dan Girardi's career +/- is like 50 better than Brian Leech. Do you think Girardi is better than Leech?

 

[wingnutks]

Dan Girardi's career +/- is like 50 better than Brian Leech. Do you think Girardi is better than Leech?

At defense? probably.
Also, looking at career is not as useful as comparing plays on the same team same season.

 

[Seph]

Dan Girardi's career +/- is like 50 better than Brian Leech. Do you think Girardi is better than Leech?

Just because a stat is not useful in all situations, doesn't mean it's not useful. Roman Cechmanek's all time save percentage is way higher than Ed Belfour's, but that doesn't mean save percentage is a useless stat.

+/- is certainly a flawed stat, but it still can be used for some helpful information. 5on5 GF% is more useful though, as it eliminates two major problems with +/-, which is that +/- includes EN goals and that it doesn't account for icetime. Though, neither stat is terribly useful for comparing players on different teams as you are trying to do here.

But Hickey's GF% is also the best on the team, and he has the lowest GA/60 of any of our dmen. While of course some of that is due to his usage, at the end of the day he's not hurting us on the scoreboard.

 

[CupHolders]

At defense? probably.
Also, looking at career is not as useful as comparing plays on the same team same season.

Brian Leetch’s offensive ability was so superb that it was easy to use the lazy narrative that he was an “Offensive D-man.” He was very underrated defensively.

Again, offense was his primary game, but defense as his secondary game was still better than most ... and certainly all Ranger or Islander d-men over the past ten years.

 

[redbull]

Just because a stat is not useful in all situations, doesn't mean it's not useful. Roman Cechmanek's all time save percentage is way higher than Ed Belfour's, but that doesn't mean save percentage is a useless stat.

+/- is certainly a flawed stat, but it still can be used for some helpful information. 5on5 GF% is more useful though, as it eliminates two major problems with +/-, which is that +/- includes EN goals and that it doesn't account for icetime. Though, neither stat is terribly useful for comparing players on different teams as you are trying to do here.

But Hickey's GF% is also the best on the team, and he has the lowest GA/60 of any of our dmen. While of course some of that is due to his usage, at the end of the day he's not hurting us on the scoreboard.

Hickey does not play sheltered minutes and is usually paired with their worst/youngest dman. He's just a good hockey player/defenseman, who's flawed (like almost ALL #5-6 dmen) - but if he's not brought back next year, and those minutes go to Mayfield/Pelech, the team will be worse off.

Just like Hamonic's minutes going to Pelech/Pulock/Mayfield this year

Making a defenseman play up in the line-up, against top end players, is disastrous.
Way worse than Fritz/Quine on the top line that limits your offense (hopefully)

 

[PK Cronin]

Hickey does not play sheltered minutes and is usually paired with their worst/youngest dman. He's just a good hockey player/defenseman, who's flawed (like almost ALL #5-6 dmen) - but if he's not brought back next year, and those minutes go to Mayfield/Pelech, the team will be worse off.

Just like Hamonic's minutes going to Pelech/Pulock/Mayfield this year

Making a defenseman play up in the line-up, against top end players, is disastrous.
Way worse than Fritz/Quine on the top line that limits your offense (hopefully)

I agree. It's better to have your offense playing above their level than your defense. The objective for bad teams should be to limit the opposition's chances as much as possible, then to win games 2-1. Hickey gets a lot of hate, and I'd love to move on from him with someone better, but when he goes he'll just be replaced by someone worse. Hopefully one of those guys can develop into something better than Hickey.

 

[redbull]

I agree. It's better to have your offense playing above their level than your defense. The objective for bad teams should be to limit the opposition's chances as much as possible, then to win games 2-1. Hickey gets a lot of hate, and I'd love to move on from him with someone better, but when he goes he'll just be replaced by someone worse. Hopefully one of those guys can develop into something better than Hickey.

he's one of the better waiver pick-ups, ever, I think. While I'd love to have someone emerge as a top four, I don't see anyone on the horizon.

I still see potential in Pelech at times, same for Pulock, but they have these lapses on defense (expected for such a young, slow skating, dman) that are crippling for a team like the Islanders.

 

[wingnutks]

People here are going to be REALLY disappointed with the #5/6 dman we get to replace Hickey.

 

[Sheva7]

People here are going to be REALLY disappointed with the #5/6 dman we get to replace Hickey.

Yup. Good thing we signed Pelech for 5yrs

 

[YesCubed]

That’s horrific.

no argument here. unless a dman falls into their lap, that will be the defense for the 18-19 new york islanders

 

[ThreeLeftSkates]

People here are going to be REALLY disappointed with the #5/6 dman we get to replace Hickey.

I doubt it. I am really disappointed every time I see his number on the ice. Turnover machine, horrific in his own end.

 

[bigd]

I doubt it. I am really disappointed every time I see his number on the ice. Turnover machine, horrific in his own end.

He no more horrific than the rest of the D.

 

[Isles1966]

I see he is good enough to be a 5/6 D on a team. I just feel if a team is going to carry an undersized D man he has to be a great skating offensive player pp quarterback and not a mini Boychuk minus the shot

 

[redbull]

I don't know.
He continues to put up an incredible +/- (+14) to lead the team, has the second most d-zone starts (next to Pelech), same for CORSI and he's got 19 pts (Pulock has 20), next to Leddy.

Any way you look at it, Hickey's one of the best defensemen on the Islanders. As sad as this sounds, and as much as he's hated, this team will be worse without him.

 

[bigd]

I don't know.
He continues to put up an incredible +/- (+14) to lead the team, has the second most d-zone starts (next to Pelech), same for CORSI and he's got 19 pts (Pulock has 20), next to Leddy.

Any way you look at it, Hickey's one of the best defensemen on the Islanders. As sad as this sounds, and as much as he's hated, this team will be worse without him.

I like Hickey and I think he's a great bottom pairing D-man so those statistics tell you how badly the rest of the Islanders D-men are performing this season.

 

[buud]

i have been critical of Hickey a lot, but i think he has played well, the 2nd half. kept his game simple, minimised errors, and chose his spots better.

he doesn't do anything great, and he is weak physically. he really shouldn't be getting more than 1.5 per, IMO, and he is probably looking for 2.5 per (he made 3.1 this year, 2.2 cap hit).

both Pulock and Pelech have better CF%, are just starting out, as opposed to Hickey being in his prime, and are cheaper, for at least the next 5 years.

we need better if we are going to compete.

 

[redbull]

I like Hickey and I think he's a great bottom pairing D-man so those statistics tell you how badly the rest of the Islanders D-men are performing this season.

Based on the minutes and situations we're asking of Hickey (and Pelech, Pulock, Mayfield, Aho), it's no freakin' wonder the team is atrocious defensively - and frankly, a key reason why the offense has dried up as well. It's an AHL defense (and not even a great one).

At this stage of their career, Leddy is a perfect #2, Boychuk a perfect #4 and any of Hickey/Pelech/Pulock/Mayfield/Davidson a good #5-6

No way any team, or any forward group, and especially our poor/inconsistent goaltending can overcome this major gap.

Losing deHaan and Hamonic, who ate up HUGE minutes against top opponents, and more importantly, allowed the others to slot into lesser roles, was enormous.

The fact that GARTH SNOW did NOTHING to address that is a colossal failure and based on that reason alone he should have been fired.

It's totally infuriating being a fan of this team with the incredible incompetence we can see on a fkickin message board, yet NOTHING is done. Incredible and pathetic!

 

[Spybot]

I don't know.
He continues to put up an incredible +/- (+14) to lead the team, has the second most d-zone starts (next to Pelech), same for CORSI and he's got 19 pts (Pulock has 20), next to Leddy.
Any way you look at it, Hickey's one of the best defensemen on the Islanders. As sad as this sounds, and as much as he's hated, this team will be worse without him.

Hickey's been the beneficiary of some insane goaltending luck this season, the goalies have ~94 % 5v5 save percentage with him on the ice (the next best dman is at ~92.7 %) which explains his 'incredible' plus minus. His shot metrics are a lot more pedestrian. He's always been completely fine as a bottom pairing dman, but replacing him next year should be no big feat (assuming the GM who does so is competent).

And really, defending Hickey is ok given how much unnecessary hate he gets, but maybe you people should consider using stats that aren't the technological equivalent of sticks and rocks.

 

[eoin92]

Hickey's been the beneficiary of some insane goaltending luck this season, the goalies have ~94 % 5v5 save percentage with him on the ice (the next best dman is at ~92.7 %) which explains his 'incredible' plus minus. His shot metrics are a lot more pedestrian. He's always been completely fine as a bottom pairing dman, but replacing him next year should be no big feat (assuming the GM who does so is competent).

And really, defending Hickey is ok given how much unnecessary hate he gets, but maybe you people should consider using stats that aren't the technological equivalent of sticks and rocks.

Why is the goaltending better when he’s on the ice? Could it have anything to do with him?

 

[Spybot]

Why is the goaltending better when he’s on the ice? Could it have anything to do with him?

The goaltending's better with him on the ice because it's his turn to get lucky I guess. It's generally understood that the players have very little control over the on ice Sv%. Also note that the difference of 1.3 % could be the difference between a bad goalie and an elite one, so if he could elevate goalies this way, he'd be extremely valuable.

Hockey Talk: On player control over save percentage

By the way, last year his on ice Sv% was 90.34 %, one of the worst on the team. It's better to look at shot-based metrics which skaters can control much more.

 

[redbull]

The goaltending's better with him on the ice because it's his turn to get lucky I guess. It's generally understood that the players have very little control over the on ice Sv%. Also note that the difference of 1.3 % could be the difference between a bad goalie and an elite one, so if he could elevate goalies this way, he'd be extremely valuable.

Hockey Talk: On player control over save percentage

By the way, last year his on ice Sv% was 90.34 %, one of the worst on the team. It's better to look at shot-based metrics which skaters can control much more.

So many bad assumptions with your stats and conclusions.

 

[Spybot]

So many bad assumptions with your stats and conclusions.

Coming from a guy who uses plus minus to evaluate players this statement isn't particularly painful. But I'm here pretty regularly if you ever feel like educating me.