Salary Cap: HFB Penguins: More Kessel Threads than You Can Shake a Hotdog at.

[penzweiser]

I'd like them to, but as I said lastnight, I don't think JR is going to sign someone to any amount of money (and Semin or Fehr or any of the other FA's are still likely to get 2-4m) until he has a deal in place to move Kunitz or Sutter.

Semin was actually trending upwards as last season went on... in spite of his production. And if I had to choose between the two (AS or CK), I would take Semin hands down - even if the cap hit was the same. Why? Well I think offensively, Semin on this roster would do better than Kunitz. Assuming his wrist isn't completely ****ed (and his stats show that's not likely the case), then I have more faith on him going back to form then Kunitz figuring out how to train so he can get back into form. Then there's the fact of the term. Semin - almost regardless of what he'll sign for cap wise will be a 1 yr contract. Kunitz has 2 years, and if he doesn't bounce back (I'm not holding my breath), trading him with whatever type of NTC Shero gave him will only get harder.

Ideally JR trades Kunitz (MTL?) for whatever (futures, young guy, etc), and then signs Fehr. If he can swing it cap wise, Semin too. Then he has a replacement for Sutter and doesn't need a top 6 player back in return, and thus could move Sutter for the best return possible (futures, picks, young guys, w/e). We'd likely save on cap, get some futures, and have a fairly skilled roster.

A lot of right hand shots, but I could 'live' with that.

Hornqvist - Crosby - Kessel
Perron - Malkin - Semin
Dupuis - Fehr - Bennett
Plotnikov - XXXXX - XXXXX

IF semin has a healed wrist and signed a cheap contact, he would be coming on to play left wing, which he has played effectively in the past. You would be playing Hornqvist out of position. If you brought him in I think the lines would be.

Perron-Crosby-Hornqvist
Semin-Malkin-Kessel

 

[IcedCapp]

Do any sort of stats show sutter as a great pker or is that predominantly steiggy driven?

I don't know, but what I can tell you is there are plenty of stats that show Scuderi is HORRIFIC at it

(like, mind-blowing amounts of SOG when he's on the PK. I'm not just saying this. It's incredible. If you compare, for example, Scuderi's PK SOG against to Despres PK SOG against, Scuderi allows, on average, like twice as many SOG-per-60minutes)

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDo]

Santorelli's possession numbers were disappointing (-7 SAT, -4.9 SAT REL, -5 USAT, -5 USAT REL), and you were responding to a post that specifically addressed RHS draws (Santorelli was a 45% FO guy). He did put up 33 points in 79 games. He's 6'0".

Meanwhile, Fehr...
1. 52% FO
2. 16 SAT
3. -1.3 SAT REL
4. 15 USAT
5. -1.1 USAT REL
6. 33 points in 75 games
7. 6'4"

Right, but Fehr was a 46% FO guy the prior year and Santorelli was 52%. Fehr would be the first pick and Santorelli would be next before people like Matthias or Zack Smith or Sheppard or Malhortra (ugh)

 

[displacedpensfan]

Scuderi

Is there any reason not to waive Scuds at this point and see if there's a taker?

 

[Riptide]

That's such a cop out and I can't believe people buy that horse ****. This isn't a guy this org should allow back on the ice. I said this many times, and I made the same statements about TV.

TV retired, because it was the intelligent thing to do. Do you think he didn't love the game?

Have you ever played through an injury that you know you shouldn't have? You can moan and ***** about it all you want... but most people will sympathize with him because they'd very likely do the same thing. You can say they're idiots or whatever... it will not accomplish or change anything.

Vokoun was also 37 when he had the clot and would have been 38 going into the following season. A lot easier to hang them up then vs when you just turned 35.

Do you know who else had a clot? Fleischmann. Guess what... he's still playing. It can be done.

As for never allowing him back on the ice... if the doctors clear him, there's nothing you can do other than sit him in the pressbox as a healthy scratch (and this a cap liability).

Really... this is something you need to move past.

TV made an adult decision, Dupuis can't seem to do that.

So Vokoun made an adult decision because it's the one you happen to agree with? You don't have to like, support or respect the decisions Dupuis has made in his life. Which is a good thing because you have no control over them. But seriously... give it up already. You have no control over what he does.

 

[Boocock]

Yes. I'm not going to look them up just now, but yes, he's an excellent penalty killer, statistically. Leads in shorties over the last two years, all metrics are solid or better (not that there's any agreement on what metrics matter on the PK).

Statistically, he's not a great penalty killer. Out of the 244 players w/ at least 100 PK minutes, he ranked 100th in GA60. Players ahead of him included...
1. Ben Lovejoy
2. Nick Spaling
3. Craig Adams
4. Max Lapierre
5. Daniel Winnik
6. Kris Letang
7. Paul Martin

Only one Penguin had a higher (IE poorer) GA60 figure - Rob Scuderi

His PDO was ranked 36th out of 244 (mostly attributed to the team's on-ice shooting percentage on the PK). This is where the "Sutter is a great PKer" myth begins - his shorthanded goals.

His CF% was ranked 149th out of 244.

Now, he is exceptional defensively at even strength. But on the PK, he was one of the worst players on the team. His on-ice SV% was 43rd out of 244, meaning the shot attempts weren't as great. But Adams and Spaling both had stronger figures (as did Lovejoy).

 

[billybudd]

Pretty sure he's one of the guys they'll be open to moving. Great guy too. Some were saying a 4th or 3rd. I'd definitely pay that for him.
There also is still no headway with a Hoffman deal.

I'll take Smith on a fourth line, though that's because I view fourth lines as best populated predominantly by trollish hockey players. Far as possession or scoring, I don't know if he's all that capable of doing any of that. Just that he's a PITA.

 

[DoktorZaius]

Is there any reason not to waive Scuds at this point and see if there's a taker?

I'd consider it, if only to really leverage him into accepting a trade to a team that needs to hit the cap floor.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

I actually have this shirt:

 

[billybudd]

Statistically, he's not a great penalty killer. Out of the 244 players w/ at least 100 PK minutes, he ranked 100th in GA60. Players ahead of him included...
1. Ben Lovejoy
2. Nick Spaling
3. Craig Adams
4. Max Lapierre
5. Daniel Winnik
6. Kris Letang
7. Paul Martin

Only one Penguin had a higher (IE poorer) GA60 figure - Rob Scuderi

His PDO was ranked 36th out of 244 (mostly attributed to the team's on-ice shooting percentage on the PK). This is where the "Sutter is a great PKer" myth begins - his shorthanded goals.

His CF% was ranked 149th out of 244.

Now, he is exceptional defensively at even strength. But on the PK, he was one of the worst players on the team.

Why are you counting corsi events short-handed? The purpose of killing penalties is not to generate a shot. Or stop a shot attempt.

Or PDO? PDO is shorthand for randomness. Luck.

 

[Boocock]

Why are you counting corsi events short-handed? The purpose of killing penalties is not to generate a shot. Or stop a shot attempt.

Or PDO? PDO is shorthand for randomness. Luck.

Ugh.

He's bad on the PK. That's the end of it. The PDO was brought up to illustrate that very point (it's the root cause of why he's overrated in that role). The bottom line is that he doesn't do more to mitigate the opponent's scoring on the PK than seven out of the Pens' nine most-heavily used players in that role last season. The only argument that could be used to counter that? He took the harder matchups / was on the ice w/ Scuderi.

I'm also tickled by the fact that you ignored the stats which made my point. Additionally, I edited my post to add more stats. Please look at them.

 

[IcedCapp]

Why are you counting corsi events short-handed? The purpose of killing penalties is not to generate a shot. Or stop a shot attempt.

Or PDO? PDO is shorthand for randomness. Luck.

Wait, I think I'm confused.

Obviously the purpose of the PK is to prevent a goal, but you don't think shot/possession prevention is a big deal on the PK?

(genuine curiosity, not my typical dick head sarcasm)

 

[billybudd]

Wait, I think I'm confused.

Obviously the purpose of the PK is to prevent a goal, but you don't think shot/possession prevention is a big deal on the PK?

Shots against, maybe (though this will be heavily dependent on systems). Corsi events against, absolutely not. With the latter, you're including positive plays and identifying them as a negative outcome. Think of all the times that Kris Letang takes too long to shoot and a forward gets a stick in the lane to deflect it into the crowd. Did the forward make a bad play?

At even strength, it can be argued that if you're blocking shots, you're on your heels instead of attacking, which is bad. 4 on 5 that thinking is not practical.

 

[Riptide]

Honestly, Zack Smith would be a great addition to the pens bottom 6. Good on draws, good on the pk, plays physical, can also play LW. And he's got a decent amount of skill. He wouldn't cost much and has a decent cap hit.

An Ottawa fan was willing to do Sutter for Smith and Chiasson.

 

[DegenX]

Is there any reason not to waive Scuds at this point and see if there's a taker?

He for sure has a modified NTC. In which case we can waive him, but it only saves us 950k per Hockey's Cap. However, he may also have a NMC, in which case we can't.

 

[BeautiPhil]

Perron - Crosby - Hornqvist
Bennett - Malkin - Kessel
Dupuis - Fehr - Matthias
Plotnikov - Goc - Sundqvist

Maatta - Letang
Pouliot - Oduya
Dumoulin - Cole
Lovejoy

Probably my ideal lineup possibility. Basically consists of dumping Scuderi and trading away Kunitz and Sutter, and signing Fehr, Oduya, Matthias and a cheap 4th line center (in this case Goc). Don't know how feasible it would be with the cap though. Not sure if all 4 of those could come cheap enough to equal Sutter+Scuds+Kunitz's cap hit.

 

[Black Label]

Well he can also score around 20 goals.

My biggest problem with Sutter will be he is crappy at possession and more importantly he doesn't use his wingers.

Your centers need to be able to get it to your wingers at least on occasion.

He just needs some puck possession guys on his line.

The problem is that he needs puck possession guys on his line because he is terrible at it and also can't distribute the puck. Those are two of the most important things for our 3C to be able to do. If you put two possession wingers on his line with him you are basically handicapping them with a center that can't hold on to the puck and even when he has it he doesn't use his linemates well. 20 goals is nice from a 3C, sure. But I'd rather have a guy that scores 10 and can actually create chances for his winger over a center that scores 75% of his goals streaking up the right hand boards and shooting it in from the top of the circle.

 

[Riptide]

Is there any reason not to waive Scuds at this point and see if there's a taker?

We may not be allowed to depending on what's in his contract (there's such a thing as limited NMC which would just protect against waivers). Also, odds are we wouldn't get a taker. What would realistically happen is that if we waived him, any team that was remotely interested in him would allow him to clear then approach us and ask how much salary we'd retain. The same thing could be accomplished by JR approaching other GMs. Waiving the player unless JR was actually intending to send him to the minors is counter productive.

 

[Black Label]

Goc was terribly misused when he was here last year, I see no reason why he would even consider coming back.

 

[realityis]

An Ottawa fan was willing to do Sutter for Smith and Chiasson.

I'd do that. Then add Fher for 3rd line center.
I think Chiasson has good upside, big and can skate. And I have always been a fan of Smith.
Overall I'd be willing to move Sutter for those 2 players.

A fourth line of

SUDQVIST-SMITH-CHIASSON would be great to watch.

 

[BigBenSF*]

Going further on Sutter, I wouldn't even say that he was/is "exceptional" defensively. Jordan Staal is exceptional defensively. Sutter? Not so much.

If the primary goal of a defensive forward is to suppress shots (which it should be), over the past two years, Sutter ranks at about 50 out of the 167 centers that played 1000+ minutes over that time using FA60. It's not atrocious, certainly not as atrocious as his offensive play, but it's not irreplaceable if Sutter were to leave.

 

[Boocock]

Going further on Sutter, I wouldn't even say that he was/is "exceptional" defensively. Jordan Staal is exceptional defensively. Sutter? Not so much.

If the primary goal of a defensive forward is to suppress shots (which it should be), over the past two years, Sutter ranks at about 50 out of the 167 centers that played 1000+ minutes over that time using FA60. It's not atrocious, certainly not as atrocious as his offensive play, but it's not irreplaceable if Sutter were to leave.

I'd argue the goal is to surpress goals, not shots, and he's solid at that.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Have you ever played through an injury that you know you shouldn't have? You can moan and ***** about it all you want... but most people will sympathize with him because they'd very likely do the same thing. You can say they're idiots or whatever... it will not accomplish or change anything.

Playing through an injury and ignoring the symptoms of a blood clot are entirely different matters. Again, there is way too much ignorance on this board about blood clots. It's painfully obvious.

Dupuis was made aware of the symptoms and ignored a blatantly obvious symptom when his felt a sharp pain shoot through his chest.

Vokoun was also 37 when he had the clot and would have been 38 going into the following season. A lot easier to hang them up then vs when you just turned 35.

Dupuis has had a long and successful career and also won a SC. Lets not pretend a few years difference in age made TV decision any easier.

Do you know who else had a clot? Fleischmann. Guess what... he's still playing. It can be done.

No one said it can't be done. The inability of some people around here to follow an argument is truly astounding. Especially when it has been repeated 2-3 times at least.

TV AND TF know how dangerous blood clots are. Read their stories. Both have been dealing with this issue for many years and they report their symptoms to their doctors right away when they have occurred in the past. Both have flat out said that in their stories many times.

Dupuis hide his symptoms and said he isn't sure if he wouldn't do that again or not.

How people can't process the difference here as I said is truly astounding.

As for never allowing him back on the ice... if the doctors clear him, there's nothing you can do other than sit him in the pressbox as a healthy scratch (and this a cap liability). So Vokoun made an adult decision because it's the one you happen to agree with? You don't have to like, support or respect the decisions Dupuis has made in his life. Which is a good thing because you have no control over them. But seriously... give it up already. You have no control over what he does

Really... this is something you need to move past..

You and a few others have created this false narrative that people can't get past Dupuis decision, not me. In fact, I haven't said a word about his decision in quite some time or even thought about it. Once again, I'm not the one who brought the subject up. However, that doesn't mean I won't offer my opinion on the matter again.

Some of us have an opinion that he's being foolish and that decision shouldn't be celebrated. If he decides to go through with it and something happens, his family, especially his children, will suffer the consequences. Not me.

It's pretty sad that people on here are indirectly trying to defend his decision by twisting things around so blatantly.

 

[IcedCapp]

Shots against, maybe (though this will be heavily dependent on systems). Corsi events against, absolutely not. With the latter, you're including positive plays and identifying them as a negative outcome. Think of all the times that Kris Letang takes too long to shoot and a forward gets a stick in the lane to deflect it into the crowd. Did the forward make a bad play?

At even strength, it can be argued that if you're blocking shots, you're on your heels instead of attacking, which is bad. 4 on 5 that thinking is not practical.

okay, thanks.

I think everything requires context. For example, I will absolutely hold SOG against someone like Scuderi, when his SOG are out of whack with all of his teammates.

I think the Pens tried to play a more aggressive PK last year, and they were actually good at it, when certain people (Scuderi, Adams, etc...) weren't on the ice.

 

[mpp9]

I'd argue the goal is to surpress goals, not shots, and he's solid at that.

Yea this is it in a nutshell when it comes to Sutter. He's very good defensively in the sense that he's in very good position and rarely allows goals against.

He's not Jordan Staal good in that he doesn't dominate possession.

I still say you stick a healthy Dupuis with him and he'd be fine.