GDT: Germany - Finland

[PenDuhNotPittsburgh]

KAZ is already ahead of us. Canada is 3 points behind us. If they win their last 2 games they will be 3 points ahead. However, if we beat Latvia we will be even on points and due to beating Canada we would advance if I’m not wrong.

True. Worst case scenario would be Kazakhstan winning their last game in overtime and Canada winning both games. In that scenario everyone would be at 12 points if we beat Latvia. So since we've beaten Canada but Kazakhstan as beaten us, while Canada has beaten Kazakhstan the direct duells become irrelevat and it boils down to goals I think. That's ome crazy arithmetics^^

 

[GermanNuck]

True. Worst case scenario would be Kazakhstan winning their last game in overtime and Canada winning both games. In that scenario everyone would be at 12 points if we beat Latvia. So since we've beaten Canada but Kazakhstan as beaten us, while Canada has beaten Kazakhstan the direct duells become irrelevat and it boils down to goals I think. That's ome crazy arithmetics^^

Wouldn’t that actually be a good scenario for us? We could move up one place and unless the US is wiping us off the planet our goal difference is much better than anyone else’s

of course we have to beat Latvia first which is far from easy

 

[FiLe]

If this year's Team Finland was a track and field athlete, it would be Maria Mutola - not pretty, but pretty good at what it does.

 

[Urbanskog]

it is disappointing to see a German team playing so well yet not reaching the quarterfinals.
Future is bright even without naturalization.

I can't see Germany losing against Latvia which has been anything but impressive. Three points from that would already be a sure way to qualify and they don't necessarily even need all three.

 

[Finnswiss]

If I’m not mistaken, beating Latvia would assure the QF.

Yes, Germany needs very likely only 3 points of the the last 2 games. If they win against Latvia it doesn’t matter if they lose against USA because in this case they had 12 points.
Canada can attempt only 12 points too, even if they win both remaining games.
Kazakhstan has very good chances to reach quarterfinal the first time in history because they will end qualification round very likely with more than 12 points. But Germany won against Canada and that counts if two teams finish the qualification round with the same points.

 

[Finnswiss]

True. Worst case scenario would be Kazakhstan winning their last game in overtime and Canada winning both games. In that scenario everyone would be at 12 points if we beat Latvia. So since we've beaten Canada but Kazakhstan as beaten us, while Canada has beaten Kazakhstan the direct duells become irrelevat and it boils down to goals I think. That's ome crazy arithmetics^^

This scenario is very unlikely because Kazakhstan still plays against Italy. It’s very likely that they win in regular time this game so they finish with 13 points. If Germany wins against Latvia in regular time Canada is definitely out because Germany has then also at least 12 points.
And Canada lost against both Germany and USA, so no matter how the game USA-Germany ends, Canada is out in any case as they can attempt maximum 12 points too.

 

[Mestaruus]

I'm pretty sure that Finland has secured playoff spot now, even if Finland gets 0 points from the remaining games. Prove me wrong someone. I did the math here. I don't want to post it again as it's long:

WC: - 2021 Finland Roster Talk

 

[Urbanskog]

I'm pretty sure that Finland has secured playoff spot now, even if Finland gets 0 points from the remaining games. Prove me wrong.

Nobody is arguing otherwise. There could technically be a 13 point tiebreaker between four teams (Finland, Germany, Kazakhstan and Latvia) but that is not very likely.

 

[Mestaruus]

Nobody is arguing otherwise. There could technically be a 13 point tiebreaker between four teams (Finland, Germany, Kazakhstan and Latvia) but that is not very likely.

Yes and in such case Finland will advance. GER would would be out then.

 

[Finnswiss]

I'm pretty sure that Finland has secured playoff spot now, even if Finland gets 0 points from the remaining games. Prove me wrong someone. I did the math here. I don't want to post it again as it's long:

WC: - 2021 Finland Roster Talk

As I already said Finland secured quarterfinal spot. The only question is against whom they will have to play. If they finish first most likely against Czech Republic.

 

[Mestaruus]

As I already said Finland secured quarterfinal spot. The only question is against whom they will have to play. If they finish first most likely against Czech Republic.

Yeah I wasn't reading the entire thread, but good that we came to the same conclusion and playoff spot is secured.

 

[Mestaruus]

If this year's Team Finland was a track and field athlete, it would be Maria Mutola - not pretty, but pretty good at what it does.

So not good enough to be Olga Kuzenkova (Kusen kova).

Olga Kuzenkova - Wikipedia

 

[Finnswiss]

Yes and in such case Finland will advance. GER would would be out then.

No Canada would still be out as they can reach maximum 12 points and there are four teams with more points.

 

[Urbanskog]

No Canada would still be out as they can reach maximum 12 points and there are four teams with more points.

In this situation Canada is irrelevant to the conversation. USA would advance with the highest amount of points but you'd have the four teams in a tiebreaker and one of them wouldn't be able to make the quarterfinals.

 

[FiLe]

This scenario is very unlikely because Kazakhstan still plays against Italy.

Kazakhstan played against Italy earlier today. They have only a game against Norway left. There is in fact a semi-realistic scenario in which the four-way tie becomes possible (in the case Finland picks up no more points) - it starts with GER beating USA in regulation. Then KAZ beats NOR in regulation and LAT beats GER in OT. Now FIN, KAZ, LAT and GER are involved in a four-way tie. And, albeit this is less likely, the above scenario can even become a five-way tie if USA suffers an OT loss to Italy.

However, Finland can't finish dead last in any kind of tie situation involving Germany, so Finland is in the clear.

 

[Finnswiss]

In this situation Canada is irrelevant to the conversation. USA would advance with the highest amount of points but you'd have the four teams in a tiebreaker and one of them wouldn't be able to make the quarterfinals.

I know. I only answered to “Mestaruus” who said GER would be out in this very unlikely case.

 

[Finnswiss]

Kazakhstan played against Italy earlier today. They have only a game against Norway left. There is in fact a semi-realistic scenario in which the four-way tie becomes possible (in the case Finland picks up no more points) - it starts with GER beating USA in regulation. Then KAZ beats NOR in regulation and LAT beats GER in OT. Now FIN, KAZ, LAT and GER are involved in a four-way tie. And, albeit this is less likely, the above scenario can even become a five-way tie if USA suffers an OT loss to Italy.

However, Finland can't finish dead last in any kind of tie situation involving Germany, so Finland is in the clear.

Deleted, double post

 

[FiLe]

I confirmed already Finland secured the quarterfinal.

Yes, Finland is in. But your math about *how* they are in just isn't adding up.

 

[Finnswiss]

Kazakhstan played against Italy earlier today. They have only a game against Norway left. There is in fact a semi-realistic scenario in which the four-way tie becomes possible (in the case Finland picks up no more points) - it starts with GER beating USA in regulation. Then KAZ beats NOR in regulation and LAT beats GER in OT. Now FIN, KAZ, LAT and GER are involved in a four-way tie. And, albeit this is less likely, the above scenario can even become a five-way tie if USA suffers an OT loss to Italy.

However, Finland can't finish dead last in any kind of tie situation involving Germany, so Finland is in the clear.

I already confirmed Finland secured the quarterfinal. In the current constellation, from the teams I expected to see in quarterfinal Canada ( and Sweden in the group A) miss most likely the quarterfinal. Canada can reach maximum 12 points even if they win the two remaining games. Finland has already 13 points, so Canada can’t pass them anymore. USA stands also already with 12 points and they still play against Italy. A win in regular time should be no problem, so they reach at least 15 points. Ok, Kazakhstan plays against Norway. They have actually 10 points. Assuming they win against Norway in regular time they stand with at least 13 points in the table. If Germany wins also in regular time against Latvia - what is quite likely - they also have at least 12 points. But even if USA would lose both remaining games in regular time, as long Kazakhstan beats Norway in regular time Canada is definitely out because Germany had still 12 points as it would mean they won against USA in regular time and Canada lost against Germany and USA.
So the only very little Chance for Canada is a miracle or very big surprise of Norway beating Kazakhstan in regular or OT, while Germany loses both remaining games in regular or OT as long Canada wins in regular time both games. But how likely is this scenario I described above? Not at all.

 

[FiLe]

as long Kazakhstan wins against Norway in regular time, Canada is definitely out because they lost against USA and Germany.
So the only very little Chance for Canada is a miracle or very big surprise of Norway beating Kazakhstan in regular or OT, while Germany loses both remaining games in regular or OT as long Canada wins in regular time both games. But how likely is this scenario I described above? Not at all.

If we start with the assumption that Finland won't get any more points, it means they will lose to both Latvia and Canada in regulation. Italy will still play against CAN and USA, and we can safely add +3 points to the NA countries' totals.

So, then we have the following point totals before the decisive games: USA 15, FIN 13, CAN 12, LAT 11, KAZ 10, GER 9.

Now, we have three games that will potentially determine the final standings in the group. USA-GER, KAZ-NOR and GER-LAT. If Germany beats USA in regulation (+3 GER), Kazakhstan beats Norway in regulation (+3 KAZ) and Latvia beats Germany in OT (+2 LAT, +1 GER), it will create a four-way tie at 13 points between FIN, KAZ, LAT and GER. The good news is that Finland can't be the last team in this sub-group, meaning they are in. So yes, you were correct about Finland being in, but your reasoning for it was faulty.

Any other scenario than Finland ending up in a four-way tie as described above or just a three-way tie between FIN-LAT-GER (if Kazakhstan drops points against Norway) will mean that at least one of Germany or Latvia will finish behind Finland.

Of course, this is all speculation based on the hypothetical that Finland's not getting any more points. I also wouldn't say that Canada's chances are that slim. It's not in their own hands as it stands, but all Canada needs to have a fighting chance is for the favorites to win FIN-LAT and USA-GER. That is, Finland and USA. If we also presume that Canada and USA won't drop points against Italy, we arrive at the following before the decisive round:

USA 18, FIN 16, KAZ 10, GER 9, CAN 9, LAT 8.

In order to get in, Canada has to beat Finland in regulation and hope that either KAZ or GER won't get three points from their remaining game. And either is not a completely unlikely outcome. GER-LAT especially is a coin toss.

 

[Finnswiss]

Kazakhstan played against Italy earlier today. They have only a game against Norway left. There is in fact a semi-realistic scenario in which the four-way tie becomes possible (in the case Finland picks up no more points) - it starts with GER beating USA in regulation. Then KAZ beats NOR in regulation and LAT beats GER in OT. Now FIN, KAZ, LAT and GER are involved in a four-way tie. And, albeit this is less likely, the above scenario can even become a five-way tie if USA suffers an OT loss to Italy.

However, Finland can't finish dead last in any kind of tie situation involving Germany, so Finland is in the clear.

Ok, you are right in this very unlikely scenario GER would be out. Mathematically it’s possible and “Mestaruus” had right. Because GER would get the fewest points from the teams’ games against each other.

 

[Finnswiss]

If we start with the assumption that Finland won't get any more points, it means they will lose to both Latvia and Canada in regulation. Italy will still play against CAN and USA, and we can safely add +3 points to the NA countries' totals.

So, then we have the following point totals before the decisive games: USA 15, FIN 13, CAN 12, LAT 11, KAZ 10, GER 9.

Now, we have three games that will potentially determine the final standings in the group. USA-GER, KAZ-NOR and GER-LAT. If Germany beats USA in regulation (+3 GER), Kazakhstan beats Norway in regulation (+3 KAZ) and Latvia beats Germany in OT (+2 LAT, +1 GER), it will create a four-way tie at 13 points between FIN, KAZ, LAT and GER. The good news is that Finland can't be the last team in this sub-group, meaning they are in. So yes, you were correct about Finland being in, but your reasoning for it was faulty.

Any other scenario than Finland ending up in a four-way tie as described above or just a three-way tie between FIN-LAT-GER (if Kazakhstan drops points against Norway) will mean that at least one of Germany or Latvia will finish behind Finland.

Of course, this is all speculation based on the hypothetical that Finland's not getting any more points. I also wouldn't say that Canada's chances are that slim. It's not in their own hands as it stands, but all Canada needs to have a fighting chance is for the favorites to win FIN-LAT and USA-GER. That is, Finland and USA. If we also presume that Canada and USA won't drop points against Italy, we arrive at the following before the decisive round:

USA 18, FIN 16, KAZ 10, GER 9, CAN 9, LAT 8.

In order to get in, Canada has to beat Finland in regulation and hope that either KAZ or GER won't get three points from their remaining game. And either is not a completely unlikely outcome. GER-LAT especially is a coin toss.

I know FIN is even in the mathematical most unlikely and complicated scenario in QF as they can’t drop anymore to the 5th place in the table and it doesn’t matter if they finish as 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. Don’t explain me that again and again.
Concerning Canada you repeat exactly what I already said in a previous post. But I don’t believe NOR will steal points from KAZ and LAT from GER although I can be wrong of course. But we will see.

 

[donitsi]

One of the largest newspapers in Germany, on the other hand, writes the fact, at least in Germany:
Eishockey-WM: Deutschland gerät nach Niederlage gegen Finnland unter Druck


"Im Schlussdrittel überstand das deutsche Team eine erneute Unterzahlsituation, weil die Spieler wie schon beim 3:1-Sieg gegen Kanada zahlreiche Schüsse blockten – allen voran Tom Kühnhackl. Doch ein später Konter brachte Finnland erneut in Führung: Lundell spielte Reijo Routsalainen frei, der mühelos einschob (52.)."

Reijo Ruotsalainen is a legend over 60 years old, but I didn't know that he was still playing for the Finnish national team.
Reijo Ruotsalainen at eliteprospects.com
Arttu Ruotsalainen at eliteprospects.com

 

[Mestaruus]

I know. I only answered to “Mestaruus” who said GER would be out in this very unlikely case.

Well I didn't even mention Canada as they would be out with 12 points. No need to mention them in that situation.

 

[Zamboni Parade]

One of the largest newspapers in Germany, on the other hand, writes the fact, at least in Germany:
Eishockey-WM: Deutschland gerät nach Niederlage gegen Finnland unter Druck


"Im Schlussdrittel überstand das deutsche Team eine erneute Unterzahlsituation, weil die Spieler wie schon beim 3:1-Sieg gegen Kanada zahlreiche Schüsse blockten – allen voran Tom Kühnhackl. Doch ein später Konter brachte Finnland erneut in Führung: Lundell spielte Reijo Routsalainen frei, der mühelos einschob (52.)."

Reijo Ruotsalainen is a legend over 60 years old, but I didn't know that he was still playing for the Finnish national team.
Reijo Ruotsalainen at eliteprospects.com
Arttu Ruotsalainen at eliteprospects.com

Playing in Buffalo really ages people.