Post-Game Talk: Game 5: SJ wins 6-3

[hohosaregood]

Nieto is a better puckhandler and backs up the D with his speed. Wins a lot of board battles despite being a smaller guy. Karlsson is struggling.

Dunno if I'd say Nieto is a better puckhandler. I actually feel like that's the one thing really keeping him from being a high end tweener guy.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

You want a pro-DeMelo argument? Easy enough.

- DeMelo is an excellent shot suppression defenseman despite playing wih oh-so-terrible dragging-down-Polak Brenden Dillon.

- Polak was minus player for the Sharks in the regular season and is one of only two minus players for the Sharks this post-season (along with partner Dillon). DeMelo was an even player this season, which included his first 20 games of pure atrocity.

- The idea that young defensemen get worse in the playoffs than they were in the regular season is just silly. It's pure narrative. You know who succeeds in the playoffs? Players that succeed in the regular season.

The only arguments I'm seeing against DeMelo are "he's a rookie" and "he's rusty" and "he'd struggle physically". Two out of the three are total ********, and the rust argument is only valid for a small amount of time.

You were actually worried about how you came off? Well you still did anyway so it doesn't really matter. You know I don't care if you do or don't, I'll argue the substance just the same.

The arguments you're making are weak at best. So what if Dillon and Polak are minuses? 3rd pairing d-men with no offense to them being -1 and -3 respectively in 17 games is hardly a detriment to the team when they bring a physical element to their game to help wear down the other team and take some difficult minutes off the top four. You want to talk about DeMelo being a shot suppressor but how much data are you really going off of there? 45 games during the season where he was seeing 12 minutes of even strength time. That is hardly being a successful regular season player and it's hardly enough when that's all he ever did to justify his spot now in game six of the Conference Finals when he hasn't played in about two months. If he provided something else beyond that that may be worth keeping in the lineup, I'd give that argument more weight but his shot suppression doesn't produce jack.

There is nothing in your argument that actually shows that DeMelo in the same spot as either Dillon or Polak wouldn't be a minus player with them. He can be hidden in the regular season a lot better than he could in the playoffs and he absolutely would be a target for other teams. Would it make him worse? Maybe. Would his regular season success translate to the playoffs? Maybe. We won't know until he's given that opportunity but the things you attribute to DeMelo is overblown and you exaggerate Dillon and Polak's faults.

The idea that not playing a game in a couple months and that being a detriment being nonsense is in itself nonsense. How long did it take a legitimately good player like Couture to get into his midseason form coming off his injury? You don't play a real game for that long and it takes time to get into the rhythm someone like DeMelo would need to be effective since his entire game's success is dependent on having his timing down. Something that you lose in having time off like that. I'm not worried about his legs. I'm worried about his decision-making and the fact that whether you want to admit it or not he wouldn't be coming into the same kind of game as what he did during the regular season. Players finish their checks more often and target players more in this format. And that physical element has shown, especially with inexperienced players, that it could lead to panic with the puck. To add, DeMelo wasn't exactly great with the puck. Better than Polak for sure but Polak is also better along the boards and in front of the net compared to DeMelo and chances are they're going to need more of that than they will someone of DeMelo's skills for game six against the Blues.

Game one against Pittsburgh or Tampa, I would absolutely consider it given the nature of those teams. Not tomorrow and not the Blues.

 

[Gilligans Island]

You were actually worried about how you came off? Well you still did anyway so it doesn't really matter. You know I don't care if you do or don't, I'll argue the substance just the same.

The arguments you're making are weak at best. So what if Dillon and Polak are minuses? 3rd pairing d-men with no offense to them being -1 and -3 respectively in 17 games is hardly a detriment to the team when they bring a physical element to their game to help wear down the other team and take some difficult minutes off the top four. You want to talk about DeMelo being a shot suppressor but how much data are you really going off of there? 45 games during the season where he was seeing 12 minutes of even strength time. That is hardly being a successful regular season player and it's hardly enough when that's all he ever did to justify his spot now in game six of the Conference Finals when he hasn't played in about two months. If he provided something else beyond that that may be worth keeping in the lineup, I'd give that argument more weight but his shot suppression doesn't produce jack.

There is nothing in your argument that actually shows that DeMelo in the same spot as either Dillon or Polak wouldn't be a minus player with them. He can be hidden in the regular season a lot better than he could in the playoffs and he absolutely would be a target for other teams. Would it make him worse? Maybe. Would his regular season success translate to the playoffs? Maybe. We won't know until he's given that opportunity but the things you attribute to DeMelo is overblown and you exaggerate Dillon and Polak's faults.

The idea that not playing a game in a couple months and that being a detriment being nonsense is in itself nonsense. How long did it take a legitimately good player like Couture to get into his midseason form coming off his injury? You don't play a real game for that long and it takes time to get into the rhythm someone like DeMelo would need to be effective since his entire game's success is dependent on having his timing down. Something that you lose in having time off like that. I'm not worried about his legs. I'm worried about his decision-making and the fact that whether you want to admit it or not he wouldn't be coming into the same kind of game as what he did during the regular season. Players finish their checks more often and target players more in this format. And that physical element has shown, especially with inexperienced players, that it could lead to panic with the puck. To add, DeMelo wasn't exactly great with the puck. Better than Polak for sure but Polak is also better along the boards and in front of the net compared to DeMelo and chances are they're going to need more of that than they will someone of DeMelo's skills for game six against the Blues.

Game one against Pittsburgh or Tampa, I would absolutely consider it given the nature of those teams. Not tomorrow and not the Blues.

I really can't believe this discussion has gone on this long. You don't throw a rookie into game 6 if you don't have to. If you did replace Polak for Demlo, that just ups the PK time for the other dmen. Not a good thing either.

Game 1 or 2 (if we win game 1) is when you put in Demelo but let's not get that far ahead yet.

 

[rangerssharks414]

I think Karlsson should sit too once Nieto is ready.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Nieto is a better puckhandler and backs up the D with his speed. Wins a lot of board battles despite being a smaller guy. Karlsson is struggling.

I think Karlsson would be the smart one to sit for Nieto if he was ready to go but I'd move Wingels up to Tierney and Ward's line and go with Nieto-Spaling-Zubrus on the 4th. If not Karlsson then it'd be Spaling but Karlsson isn't as involved physically and Nieto brings a better defensive and PK element.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I really can't believe this discussion has gone on this long. You don't throw a rookie into game 6 if you don't have to. If you did replace Polak for Demlo, that just ups the PK time for the other dmen. Not a good thing either.

Game 1 or 2 (if we win game 1) is when you put in Demelo but let's not get that far ahead yet.

The PK is not much of a reason when the top four has been predominantly handling those minutes and the team's discipline has prevented them from having to tax themselves in that situation to a high degree.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

In terms of advanced stats, while playing with Dillon (in order to exclude Polak's Toronto stats), DeMelo is a slightly better shot attempt suppression Dman than Polak but he also is worse at shot attempt production, to the point where his Corsi% is slightly below 50 while Polak's is exactly 50%

DeMelo and Dillon together got over 63% of OZ starts while Polak and Dillon got just over 50%. Even by advanced stats nothing really says DeMelo>Polak when paired with Dillon.

Only thing I would say is that DeMelo is a better disciplined player and takes less penalties than Polak

 

[Gene Parmesan]

Dunno if I'd say Nieto is a better puckhandler. I actually feel like that's the one thing really keeping him from being a high end tweener guy.

No finish Nieto. He does a good job of controlling the puck. Just wish he was a better shooter.

 

[DrFeelgood]

Changing up a defense that has, for the most part, been playing very well together would be a dumb move, IMO. Next year is a different story but replacing someone this deep in the playoffs for something other than an injury or extremely poor play is just asking to **** up chemistry and morale.

 

[Flididdle]

No finish Nieto. He does a good job of controlling the puck. Just wish he was a better shooter.

Or even just a touch more creative... I love what he brings in terms of responsibility though. I would go ahead and put him with Tierney, Ward, maybe his speed will help possession. That 4th line has looked too good to break up. They're doing great

 

[xanjosesharks]

I think Karlsson would be the smart one to sit for Nieto if he was ready to go but I'd move Wingels up to Tierney and Ward's line and go with Nieto-Spaling-Zubrus on the 4th. If not Karlsson then it'd be Spaling but Karlsson isn't as involved physically and Nieto brings a better defensive and PK element.

Agreed, Nieto and Karlsson are the most similar players in the bottom six... But I think a Nieto Tierney Ward line would work better than with Wingels. Ward is a good forechecker like Wingels and Nieto can finish much better than Tommy can

 

[Gene Parmesan]

I think he's a pretty good passer and flashes a bit of skill in tight but his muffin shot just kills me.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Agreed, Nieto and Karlsson are the most similar players in the bottom six... But I think a Nieto Tierney Ward line would work better than with Wingels. Ward is a good forechecker like Wingels and Nieto can finish much better than Tommy can

Nieto doesn't finish better than anyone on this team. Ward is the guy you try to set up to finish so you have to keep him out of the fore-checking role as best you can which means Wingels needs to be the guy on that line to do that job. Nieto doesn't really do that job well either.

 

[Gene Parmesan]

Tommy has scored 15 and 16 goals. He can finish. Just needs to shoot and get to the net like he can.

 

[Tkachuk4MVP]

Can someone give me some stats that show what a horrible third pairing Dillon and Polak are? Because without looking, I can almost guarantee they're the best third pairing left in the playoffs.

 

[DrFeelgood]

Kerry Fraser did a write up of the Polak penalty when he lost his cool: (tl:dr he thinks Polak should have got a double minor in addition to the 5 for fighting)

http://www.tsn.ca/c-mon-ref-plenty-of-mileage-out-of-polak-minor-1.495015

 

[DonskoiDonscored]

No finish Nieto. He does a good job of controlling the puck. Just wish he was a better shooter.

He has flashes of brilliance with his shooting (Detroit game) but I think that's all they'll ever be, flashes.

That's not the part that irks me the most. He doesn't have the creativity or vision to break down defenses.

 

[LilLeeroy]

Can someone give me some stats that show what a horrible third pairing Dillon and Polak are? Because without looking, I can almost guarantee they're the best third pairing left in the playoffs.

Here's a graphic that shows competition and corsi for percentage. As you can see, no there aren't any worse d-pairings than Roman Polak and Brenden Dillon. They are being pretty heavily sheltered and are still being dominated in possession.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Here's a graphic that shows competition and corsi for percentage. As you can see, no there aren't any worse d-pairings than Roman Polak and Brenden Dillon. They are being pretty heavily sheltered and are still being dominated in possession.

Problem is that Dillon-Polak aren't out there to put shots on net to make their Corsi look good. I'm not, and I doubt DeBoer is either, worried about their possession numbers. They're out there to defend and play physically in an attempt to wear down the opposition and just get out of there w/o getting scored against. Corsi means very little at this stage of the game. You're trying to win games and while Corsi is a good predictor long-term, it's less meaningful in a short seven game series. Their effectiveness is not going to be shown in possession numbers or points. It's in them leaning on the opposition, making safe plays with the puck, and keeping the other team off the scoreboard. Things they've done relatively well against a team like the Blues who they will have to wear down to see results considering how many games they've played this playoff run.

 

[magic school bus]

You can generate more shot attempts for by playing good defense like Vlasic/Braun, knowing your strengths/weaknesses and defering to actual playmakers. Polak thinks he's Burns or something. He's Constantly driving to the net like he's scored a goal ever, and shooting wildly from the wing leading to transition chances the other way. Dillon sucks too but at least he'll defer the puck to someone else.

 

[LilLeeroy]

"DeMelo is better without Dillon" um when? Like actually honestly when the hell has DeMelo played more than a single NHL game without Dillon?

I'm with you on that Polak needs to be replaced by DeMelo, but didn't DeMelo play multiple games with Justin Braun to end the season when Vlasic was injured? And he was much better.

I think people are also forgetting how deadly the second power play unit was with DeMelo as the point man. The Sharks might win the Stanley Cup while playing Polak, but the only reason he doesn't cause multiple goals a game is he has been getting his a** saved by Martin Jones for the entire playoffs. And I personally hope they don't count on that luck continuing.

 

[LilLeeroy]

Problem is that Dillon-Polak aren't out there to put shots on net to make their Corsi look good. I'm not, and I doubt DeBoer is either, worried about their possession numbers. They're out there to defend and play physically in an attempt to wear down the opposition and just get out of there w/o getting scored against. Corsi means very little at this stage of the game. You're trying to win games and while Corsi is a good predictor long-term, it's less meaningful in a short seven game series. Their effectiveness is not going to be shown in possession numbers or points. It's in them leaning on the opposition, making safe plays with the puck, and keeping the other team off the scoreboard. Things they've done relatively well against a team like the Blues who they will have to wear down to see results considering how many games they've played this playoff run.

I'm sorry but I really don't think the Sharks being stuck in their own zone, allowing the Blues to run cycle plays while Dillon and Polak chase hits that the Blues players shake right off, is wearing them down much.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I'm with you on that Polak needs to be replaced by DeMelo, but didn't DeMelo play multiple games with Justin Braun to end the season when Vlasic was injured? And he was much better.

I think people are also forgetting how deadly the second power play unit was with DeMelo as the point man. The Sharks might win the Stanley Cup while playing Polak, but the only reason he doesn't cause multiple goals a game is he has been getting his a** saved by Martin Jones for the entire playoffs. And I personally hope they don't count on that luck continuing.

He hasn't been getting his ass saved by Jones anymore than Martin-Burns have been. The second power play unit hasn't really needed DeMelo to do work either so that's not really a good enough reason to put him in.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I'm sorry but I really don't think the Sharks being stuck in their own zone, allowing the Blues to run cycle plays while Dillon and Polak chase hits that the Blues players shake right off, is wearing them down much.

That's fine but I'll still take those six tangible hits per game the two combine for over the next to nothing tangible that DeMelo will actually offer. You can't honestly believe that DeMelo in his current state playing with Dillon is going to maintain some 52% Corsi percentage for the next game or two. I don't agree that the Blues just shake right off or isn't wearing them down much. Save for game four's explosion, they've been wearing down this series and it's because of a combination of them chasing the play when Jumbo is on the ice and the depth players laying the body. They're slowing down and I think that's pretty easy to see in this series.

 

[Gene Parmesan]

2nd unit works when it runs through Donks and Hertl.