Free Agency Episode 2 - The Attack Of The Plugs

[Langway]

Basically we traded a 2nd and a 5th. We didn't break the bank. Eakin is a good young player but he's not a blue chipper and not close.

More like a second and a third but even that that's unfair given that Eakin had progressed beyond his round value by that point. Sure, he wasn't quite a blue chipper but he was nonetheless a developing cheap center prospect. They got one back in Latta later on but he's even lesser a prospect. In the cap era, non-blue chippers still hold considerable value. Whether they would have been able to develop him adequately is another question.

So they shouldn't have tried to address the 2C spot at all last year since the "easily evaluated through metrics" perfect fit wasn't available? Who is this mystery man of salvation? When will he become available? How much will he cost to acquire?

Brooks Laich? I mean he's a top five 2C comparable to Mike Richards and David Backes apparently. From Fedorov to Morrison to Arnott to Ribeiro to the off-season Brooks lovefest it all looks pretty amateurish. McPhee can shuffle pieces around all he wants but he's not getting them any closer for all that activity. Much of what he's added by trade is of the value variety, which is fine in isolation, but what's needed are more heavy lifters and he's struck out consistently in being able to add them outside of the draft. Value is fine when there's a method behind it but I don't see much of one at this point.

 

[brs03]

So you believe it was a good trade then since you have no issues with him walking? That's where I'd disagree. It wasn't a good trade. He was a largely known quantity with plenty of warning signs from his past....McPhee gambled and lost. Simple enough....

He gambled and lost, but I don't think it was an unreasonable bet to make, so no I don't have an issue with the trade or letting him walk. It was reasonable to take a chance on him to see if he fit, at that price (cost of the trade). It was reasonable to decide that, once he didn't fit as well as you'd hope, he wasn't worth keeping at that price (cost of the contract).

 

[Stewie G]

More like a second and a third but even that that's unfair given that Eakin had progressed beyond his round value by that point. Sure, he wasn't quite a blue chipper but he was nonetheless a developing cheap center prospect. They got one back in Latta later on but he's even lesser a prospect. In the cap era, non-blue chippers still hold considerable value. Whether they would have been able to develop him adequately is another question.

Brooks Laich? I mean he's a top five 2C comparable to Mike Richards and David Backes apparently. From Fedorov to Morrison to Arnott to Ribeiro to the off-season Brooks lovefest it all looks pretty amateurish. McPhee can shuffle pieces around all he wants but he's not getting them any closer for all that activity. Much of what he's added by trade is of the value variety, which is fine in isolation, but what's needed are more heavy lifters and he's struck out consistently in being able to add them outside of the draft. Value is fine when there's a method behind it but I don't see much of one at this point.

Wasn't the method to acquire the much-desired actual 2C or did you think they should have held out to see if M. Richards or Backes came on the market?

I'm not sure I'd categorize the trade of Teddy Ruth for Fedorov as amateurish, but to each their own.

I can see the overall point about not having addressed the hole sooner with something more than the average/below average bandage, but IMO the Ribeiro move itself was worth the cost of admission to see if he was the potential answer. My crystal ball was not as clear as yours.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Well that's where we disagree then. A team this thin, can't afford to piss away prospects. Last I looked we're ranked 25th in prospect rankings....

It's certainly reasonable to realize you screwed up by acquiring the wrong guy and not wanted to overpay, or pay market value even. That's clearly what happened, making the initial acquisition the blunder....

Other than a year of quality "gap filling", what did the Ribeiro trade accomplish? Nothing.

 

[brs03]

Hockey prospectus has us 11th now (post draft), for whatever that's worth.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

He probably reads HFBoards and saw my post about giving him $1.75.

Freaking Gormley.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Hockey prospectus has us 11th now (post draft), for whatever that's worth.

Yeah, not sure what to believe. That's a wide disparity.

 

[Hivemind]

Langway, define "getting paid" for Johansson? I stand by my claim that he's going to get north of $2M (even on a 1-2 year deal). My guess continues to be something very similar to the 2 year, $2.25M deal that Hagelin received.

What are the fancy-stats that point to Ribeiro not driving the PP?

I'm a simple man...I see the PP suck for 2 years. Then we add Ribeiro and we're back to #1 (where we should be given our top end talent). Now we're going to go back to the same 5 man unit that we had when we sucked. I just don't see how you replace Ribeiro with Laich/Johansson and expect 25%+ conversion.

Couldn't you use the exact same logic, but substitute Oates' 1-3-1 system in place of Ribeiro?

Also, hopefully Laich/Johansson won't be the replacement for Ribs. It's more likely to be some combination of Erat, Perreault, and Johansson in that slot (hopefully mostly Erat and Perreault).

 

[brs03]

I don't know whether 11th is right or not, but HF's rankings and prospect evaluation have always been something of a joke, since they're just horribly inconsistent from team to team. I don't know where to put the Caps within the context of the league; I know to put HF's evaluations on the level of Eklund's, though.

EDIT: As far as MoJo goes, I really wonder what will happen. I think if they want to play hard ball with him they can get him for cheap; he's not much of a threat to sign an offer sheet, and the money in Sweden isn't that great in terms of an alternative, right? But if they want some years yeah, I can see him getting comfortbly paid considering what his contemporaries have gotten. They weren't worried about poisoning the well with Alzner by playing tough on his second contract. But MoJo puts up points (even if only by virtue of his linemates) and by the time he's arbitration eligible that'll matter, so it would make sense not to follow the same negotiation strategy there.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Well if you have something concrete to back that up, by all means...

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

On a side note....anyone else wondering in some deep dark corner of their mind, if Kovalchuk is getting paid some absurd $$ to play in the KHL....(I saw someone post $15-20 mil per season basically tax-free), when does Ovechkin get tempted to do the same thing? Scares the bejesus out of me....

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

On a side note....anyone else wondering in some deep dark corner of their mind, if Kovalchuk is getting paid some absurd $$ to play in the KHL....(I saw someone post $15-20 mil per season basically tax-free), when does Ovechkin get tempted to do the same thing? Scares the bejesus out of me....

when the next lockout happens in a few years

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

As Langway said, a good GM should know whether a high profile acquisition is a good fit before acquiring him. Ribeiro's age, ES play and defensive play were evident to everyone in hockey while he was in Dallas. Presumably, those are the factors that discouraged management from investing big long term money in him.

 

[Langway]

Wasn't the method to acquire the much-desired actual 2C or did you think they should have held out to see if M. Richards or Backes came on the market?

I'm talking overall method. McPhee's isolated ability to gain value in trades deserves praise but not if he's not building a coherent organizational identity. These are all low-risk, short-term, low impact moves and post-Halaking he has failed at building a decisive organizational identity. Now it's up to Oates to captivate a mediocre roster with McPhee in a struggle just to keep the team semi-relevant.

It would seem the hope is that a.) they draft well enough to add a heavy lifter or two as well as round out their depth in the years to come and b.) Oates will be a miracle worker. That's asking a lot in those two areas when the pro scouting, player development and cap management aspects need to carry their weight to a much greater extent.

HP tends to value top-heavy pools over organizational depth so that explains their ranking. Middle of the pack seems fair enough...maybe slightly below. They've added some okay depth the past two years but their development model to this point doesn't suggest they value it to the point they should or will get the most out of it.

Anything more than Hagelin would be disappointing unless we're talking considerable term. His lack of arb. rights on top of IMO not having earned their comfort or trust just yet should keep him on a prove-it sort of contract. Unfortunately he's been the best of a crappy LW lot so he certainly may benefit from what's been a lack of competition.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

As Langway said, a good GM should know whether a high profile acquisition is a good fit before acquiring him. Ribeiro's age, ES play and defensive play were evident to everyone in hockey while he was in Dallas. Presumably, those are the factors that discouraged management from investing big long term money in him.

McPhee sees warning signs and chooses to ignore them...a byproduct of his arrogance.

 

[Stewie G]

As Langway said, a good GM should know whether a high profile acquisition is a good fit before acquiring him. Ribeiro's age, ES play and defensive play were evident to everyone in hockey while he was in Dallas. Presumably, those are the factors that discouraged management from investing big long term money in him.

Let me try.

Fedorov's drop in play was evident to everyone in hockey while he was in Columbus. In a move that flummoxed stat junkies everywhere, he looked like a completely different player in a Caps sweater under BB's system. I don't think there is a surefire way of knowing how a player will react to a new situation.

 

[Stewie G]

I'm talking overall method. McPhee's isolated ability to gain value in trades deserves praise but not if he's not building a coherent organizational identity. These are all low-risk, short-term, low impact moves and post-Halaking he has failed at building a decisive organizational identity. Now it's up to Oates to captivate a mediocre roster with McPhee in a struggle just to keep the team semi-relevant.

It would seem the hope is that a.) they draft well enough to add a heavy lifter or two as well as round out their depth in the years to come and b.) Oates will be a miracle worker. That's asking a lot in those two areas when the pro scouting, player development and cap management aspects need to carry their weight to a much greater extent.

HP tends to value top-heavy pools over organizational depth so that explains their ranking. Middle of the pack seems fair enough...maybe slightly below. They've added some okay depth the past two years but their development model to this point doesn't suggest they value it to the point they should or will get the most out of it.

Anything more than Hagelin would be disappointing unless we're talking considerable term. His lack of arb. rights on top of IMO not having earned their comfort or trust just yet should keep him on a prove-it sort of contract. Unfortunately he's been the best of a crappy LW lot so he certainly may benefit from what's been a lack of competition.

I don't really have an issue with any of that. I was having difficulty sorting out what you've clarified above from what I thought was a distinction discussion of the Ribeiro deal and non-signing.

 

[tmljeh19*]

So wait...you are suggesting that a GM will know for SURE that a player will be a right fit prior to actually trying him out?

You do know that GMGM gets paid to do this right? It is his job after all. If his honest mentality is "let's try and see if he works" then he is a ****ing moron.

 

[txpd]

the drumbeat just gets tiring. getting ribeiro was stupid and not keeping him equally as stupid. choosing not to get him would have been criticized as happens often here as not having any interest or boldness to do the things required to win.

McPhee is a bad general manager now matter what happens. he wont make bold trades because he doesn't have the balls to make a move. he does make moves and he is roundly ripped for doing it. when he does something that just cant be criticized, the player involved gets ripped for agreeing to it.

ive said this before. if McPhee resigned his job, somebody here would complain that he was a coward for choosing resignation when suicide was the honorable option.

 

[BobRouse]

You do know that GMGM gets paid to do this right? It is his job after all. If his honest mentality is "let's try and see if he works" then he is a ****ing moron.

So Shero should get fired for bringing aboard Iginla, Murray, Morrow etc right? They didn't pan out and none are being brought back. After all the total cost of these guys was WAY more than what we paid to get Ribs.

Should Chiarelli get fired for Jagr? He was a high profile acquisition that scored exactly zero goals in the playoffs. 2 prospects and a 2nd (conditional 1st that I think it maybe now)

These are all high profile guys that just didn't pan out for one reason or another. Just 2 examples and there are many more. You can't possibly know for sure how exactly the player will fit in the dynamic of your team prior to getting him! If good GMs knew that they would never make mistakes at all. Every trade would be perfect for them.

 

[strungout]

So Shero should get fired for bringing aboard Iginla, Murray, Morrow etc right? They didn't pan out and none are being brought back. After all the total cost of these guys was WAY more than what we paid to get Ribs.

Should Chiarelli get fired for Jagr? He was a high profile acquisition that scored exactly zero goals in the playoffs. 2 prospects and a 2nd (conditional 1st that I think it maybe now)

These are all high profile guys that just didn't pan out for one reason or another. Just 2 examples and there are many more. You can't possibly know for sure how exactly the player will fit in the dynamic of your team prior to getting him! If good GMs knew that they would never make mistakes at all. Every trade would be perfect for them.

Both GM's you listed above...have won Cups.

Just pointing that out.

 

[BobRouse]

Both GM's you listed above...have won Cups.

Just pointing that out.

Exactly...they make mistakes too. You don't always win when you roll the dice.

 

[brs03]

I think if you're evaluating the decision, you have to look at what they might have liked/disliked before going for it. I imagine in the case of Ribeiro GMGM/Oates saw his mind for the game which probably resonated with him. Maybe justified his declining performance with coaching and/or the decline of Morrow. Saw the style of game he played and wanted that type of player to try and pair with Ovi to facilitate the changes there. And I assume saw someone they thought could fit in Oates' PP scheme.

Biggest reason it didn't work (from their perspective)? If I had to guess, again, I'd say it was the lack of fit with Ovi. Ovi transitioned to RW but didn't fit with Ribeiro. Should they have seen that coming? I have no idea. You can't expect them to predict everything, and I imagine chemistry is even harder to predict than average.

Everyone values different things differently, so the warning signs are not universally important. The line between intelligence and arrogance in that respect is quite thin, because both smart GMs and arrogant GMs try to outsmart the market. And both are capable of succeeding (or failing).

 

[Stewie G]

So Shero should get fired for bringing aboard Iginla, Murray, Morrow etc right? They didn't pan out and none are being brought back. After all the total cost of these guys was WAY more than what we paid to get Ribs.

Should Chiarelli get fired for Jagr? He was a high profile acquisition that scored exactly zero goals in the playoffs. 2 prospects and a 2nd (conditional 1st that I think it maybe now)

These are all high profile guys that just didn't pan out for one reason or another. Just 2 examples and there are many more. You can't possibly know for sure how exactly the player will fit in the dynamic of your team prior to getting him! If good GMs knew that they would never make mistakes at all. Every trade would be perfect for them.

The crap is always stinkier on this side of the fence.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

Exactly...they make mistakes too. You don't always win when you roll the dice.

You never win when you don't.