Proposal: Flames trade predictions

[Budz]

Ok, if you're happy to pay that 16-20m to Tanev, then yes, you can get him for "free." It might mean not having cap space to sign Knies next season, kinda like what happened with Hyman, but it would be "free."

Not exactly sure what you think Knies is getting as a RFA contract.

JT’s money come off the books 2025 as well. Likely comes back for less than half of that.

Thanks for your concern.

 

[Double Dion]

Not exactly sure what you think Knies is getting as a RFA contract.

JT’s money come off the books 2025 as well. Likely comes back for less than half of that.

Thanks for your concern.

It's honestly a bit funny. Most Leafs fans are reasonable. You think high end free agents are always going there. Not everyone wore Leafs pyjamas like Tavares and they still had to way overpay to get him. I think it's a better than 50/50 chance Tanev signs in Ottawa. Especially if they can move one of Chychrun or Chabot.

 

[Budz]

When else have I said this???

I just think it’s not likely we trade a first for him. I also think the Leafs take a good run at him in the off season

Stop bending stuff.

 

[Nanuuk]

Not moving stankoven for 2 rentals.

Who says they'd be rentals? You have a GM and the budget.

 

[roryjones]

Who says they'd be rentals? You have a GM and the budget.

Not worth Stankoven. He is not being moved. I would not move him for a signed Hanifin.

 

[Lunatik]

Throwing shit at the wall here and didn't want to start another Flames related thread...

But if it's true Kyrou might be moved out of St. Louis, could there be a fit built around Kyrou and an extended Hanifin?

 

[Nanuuk]

I personally believe the Leafs are out on Tanev. They will sign him in the off season for free.

I doubt that. Tanny would go for sunnier cli

Not worth Stankoven. He is not being moved. I would not move him for a signed Hanifin.

Fair enough. Dallas is high on the kid, but I'm not sure how long they can keep him in the AHL. And they probably want to add to their roster for a cup run without subtracting too much.

A conundrum, unless they add one piece, e.g. Tanev. Even then I would say the cost would have to be a 1st rounder.

I know a lot of people choke at the thought, whether a fan of any of the 'contending' teams, but a 2nd rounder from those teams is a very low return given where they may end up in the standings.

Better than nothing I suppose but I think it likely the return will be higher as teams want to go for all the marbles.

 

[StlBill]

Throwing shit at the wall here and didn't want to start another Flames related thread...

But if it's true Kyrou might be moved out of St. Louis, could there be a fit built around Kyrou and an extended Hanifin?

No thanks from STL. Kyrou has way more value.

 

[MTL Dirty Birdy]

Hanifin (extended) for Cirelli and Perbix?

This may sound crazy, but I’d see Stammer leaving at this point of his career( and also the contract remarks he made fuel this) before Cirelli goes. It may sound crazy, but I can see it

 

[ShaneinTpa]

2026. Hanifin is worth it.

I don’t doubt Hanifin is worth a first but Tampa would not be able to give him what he’s worth in his next contract without moving a significant piece in the offseason so I seriously doubt that the Lightning go that route. It can’t be forgotten that Seabrook’s dead cap of close to $7M comes off the books this year so even with a cap increase it wouldn’t work

 

[ShaneinTpa]

This may sound crazy, but I’d see Stammer leaving at this point of his career( and also the contract remarks he made fuel this) before Cirelli goes. It may sound crazy, but I can see it

It’s not crazy but Stamkos trumps Cirelli because Tampa with all the losses to their supporting cast they rely on a 29% powerplay to remain relevant. That powerplay takes a severe hit without 91

 

[ShaneinTpa]

Imo, Tampa won't move Cirelli in year 1 of his 8 year deal. I do think Perbix(or maybe another young Tampa dman could be part of a trade to Tampa though). If Brisebois is confident he's going to be able to sign Hanifin, I wouldn't be surprised if Tampa offers the '26 1st, '25 2nd, Perbix or another young roster dman, and one of Tampa's better prospects-Howard maybe, Gauthier, Duke, Thompson, maybe a couple of others in there). If Tampa needed to add an additional mid round pick/ prospect, they might do it as well to make sure they got who they wanted. If those 4 or 5 pieces couldn't get it done, then I'd think Tampa just passes and tries for less expensive help elsewhere.

To have enough cap space to sign Hanifin, Tampa Bay would have to move a roster player, so giving up yet another first round draft pick doesn’t work. Brent Seabrook’s dead cap money comes off the books this year. so, even with the salary cap going up for $1 million they wouldn’t have enough to entice Noah even though he wants to be in Tampa Bay. Cirelli is the only person that is not covered by a no trade, or no movement clause. That would certainly mean Stamkos is gone to accommodate signing Hanifin , So unless there’s another deal to be made, that doesn’t make sense because the 29% power-play is the only thing keeping the lightning a float. That PP would take a major hit without 91 in the lineup next season.

To have enough cap space to sign Hanifin, Tampa Bay would have to move a roster player, so giving up yet another first round draft pick doesn’t work. Brent Seabrook’s dead cap money comes off the books this year. so, even with the salary cap going up $4M

million they wouldn’t have enough to entice Noah even though he wants to be in Tampa Bay. Cirelli is the only person that is not covered by a no trade, or no movement clause. That would certainly mean Stamkos is gone to accommodate signing Hanifin , So unless there’s another deal to be made, that doesn’t make sense because the 29% power-play is the only thing keeping the lightning a float. That PP would take a major hit without 91 in the lineup next season.

 

[JTBF81]

To have enough cap space to sign Hanifin, Tampa Bay would have to move a roster player, so giving up yet another first round draft pick doesn’t work. Brent Seabrook’s dead cap money comes off the books this year. so, even with the salary cap going up for $1 million they wouldn’t have enough to entice Noah even though he wants to be in Tampa Bay. Cirelli is the only person that is not covered by a no trade, or no movement clause. That would certainly mean Stamkos is gone to accommodate signing Hanifin , So unless there’s another deal to be made, that doesn’t make sense because the 29% power-play is the only thing keeping the lightning a float. That PP would take a major hit without 91 in the lineup next season.

Tampa is projected to have 11.65 available. Clearing Sheary and replacing him with a Syracuse player/low ufa signing saves another ~1 million. If necessary, they could move Jeannot as well to save another 1-1.5 million, thereby giving them as much as ~13.5-14 million available. If Stamkos does re-sign in Tampa, it's not going to be for a large amount, especially if players.such as Hanifin are interested in signing. Furthermore, moving players that don't have trade protection(such as Cirelli, Serg etc) in year 1 of an 8 year extension is a terrible look for an.prganization, something that Tampa is not. There are ways to both trade and sign Hanifin(and possibly Stamkos) without trading one of Cirelli, Serg, or Cernak.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Tampa is projected to have 11.65 available. Clearing Sheary and replacing him with a Syracuse player/low ufa signing saves another ~1 million. If necessary, they could move Jeannot as well to save another 1-1.5 million, thereby giving them as much as ~13.5-14 million available. If Stamkos does re-sign in Tampa, it's not going to be for a large amount, especially if players.such as Hanifin are interested in signing. Furthermore, moving players that don't have trade protection(such as Cirelli, Serg etc) in year 1 of an 8 year extension is a terrible look for an.prganization, something that Tampa is not. There are ways to both trade and sign Hanifin(and possibly Stamkos) without trading one of Cirelli, Serg, or Cernak.

Would Tampa be open to trading one of those three guys in a deal for Hanifin?

 

[JTBF81]

Would Tampa be open to trading one of those three guys in a deal for Hanifin?

Personally, I wouldn't for a couple of reasons. One is that it creates a bad look for the organization, moving a guy 1 year in to an 8 year extension soon before an ntc kicks in. Secondly, they all seem to have key roles on the team and moving any of them for Hanifin doesn't seem to be really strengthening the team overall. If Brisebois was confident that Hanifin was going to extend, I would offer Tampa's '26 1st, '25 2nd, young roster dman such as Perbix or Lilleberg, and likely any prospect not named Howard(there are a couple of others that I think Tampa would be hesitant to move, but if it meant getting Hanifin, they ultimately would).

 

[Double Dion]

Personally, I wouldn't for a couple of reasons. One is that it creates a bad look for the organization, moving a guy 1 year in to an 8 year extension soon before an ntc kicks in. Secondly, they all seem to have key roles on the team and moving any of them for Hanifin doesn't seem to be really strengthening the team overall. If Brisebois was confident that Hanifin was going to extend, I would offer Tampa's '26 1st, '25 2nd, young roster dman such as Perbix or Lilleberg, and likely any prospect not named Howard(there are a couple of others that I think Tampa would be hesitant to move, but if it meant getting Hanifin, they ultimately would).

Tampa's 2026 1st could be interesting. The problem is so many players want to live there they might not ever have to rebuild. I miss UFA starting at 31...

 

[JTBF81]

Tampa's 2026 1st could be interesting. The problem is so many players want to live there they might not ever have to rebuild. I miss UFA starting at 31...

Tampa still has a strong core that averages less than 30 years old. If they can add some better depth pieces over the next year or so, they should be okay for a few years yet(assuming Vasy can get back on track sooner rather than later). If not, then the '26 1st could be quite a good pick for a team that trades for it.

 

[ShaneinTpa]

Tampa is projected to have 11.65 available. Clearing Sheary and replacing him with a Syracuse player/low ufa signing saves another ~1 million. If necessary, they could move Jeannot as well to save another 1-1.5 million, thereby giving them as much as ~13.5-14 million available. If Stamkos does re-sign in Tampa, it's not going to be for a large amount, especially if players.such as Hanifin are interested in signing. Furthermore, moving players that don't have trade protection(such as Cirelli, Serg etc) in year 1 of an 8 year extension is a terrible look for an.prganization, something that Tampa is not. There are ways to both trade and sign Hanifin(and possibly Stamkos) without trading one of Cirelli, Serg, or Cernak.

Where are you getting the $11.65 million in cap space from? The only cap space they have available is for this year with Sergachev out of the lineup. Next season they lose the benefit of Seabrook’s dead cap. You might want to check your math, especially for next season

 

[Lunatik]

Where are you getting the $11.65 million in cap space from? The only cap space they have available is for this year with Sergachev out of the lineup. Next season they lose the benefit of Seabrook’s dead cap. You might want to check your math, especially for next season

There is no "benefit" to dead cap, it's just when you're already in LTIR you can maximize how much you get. But you never gain from it.

 

[Vitto79]

Hanifan will get similar to Lindholm so a 1st plus

 

[Double Dion]

Hanifan will get similar to Lindholm so a 1st plus

I don't think he's going to get as much even though I think he's a better player.

 

[ShaneinTpa]

There is no "benefit" to dead cap, it's just when you're already in LTIR you can maximize how much you get. But you never gain from it.

You are correct. I meant to say LTIR. But I was correct in saying the Seabrook benefit of over $6K goes away after this season. That is like adding a player without getting one

 

[Lunatik]

You are correct. I meant to say LTIR. But I was correct in saying the Seabrook benefit of over $6K goes away after this season. That is like adding a player without getting one

Again, there is no benefit. using LTIR is a detriment because it stops a team from accruing cap space to add bigger salaries at the deadline.

 

[ShaneinTpa]

Again, there is no benefit. using LTIR is a detriment because it stops a team from accruing cap space to add bigger salaries at the deadline.

Then explain the purpose of the lightning, taking on Seabrooks contract to begin with

 

[JTBF81]

Where are you getting the $11.65 million in cap space from? The only cap space they have available is for this year with Sergachev out of the lineup. Next season they lose the benefit of Seabrook’s dead cap. You might want to check your math, especially for next season

I have, you may want to do the same. The cap is rising to 87.7 and Tampa currently has 17 players signed with just over 76 million accounted for. If you count Crozier as being a reg next year on defense, then they have 18 signed with approximately 10.8 available. Seabrook's ltir has meant nothing in terms of exceeding the cap, so that has helped them none at all, and only prevented them from accruing cap space during the reg season. As I said, with the moves they could make replacing Sheary and possibly Jeannot, they'd have 13.5-14 million available for 4 F and 1 dman to reach 22, which is what Tampa usually runs.