Fertitta : " Hockey struggles south of the Mason-Dixon Line, and it's a fact"

[Melrose Munch]

You can’t. Not if you’re the BoG and you just took $500M from Foley for Vegas and Dundon forking over the same for Carolina (not to mention $650M from OVG for Seattle) and now have a guy now who wants to low ball his way in.

Won't be their decision once no one bites at the price point. Foley paid that much because it was vegas. What the market will bear should matter.

 

[Siludin]

Here's the problem Seattle is the last major market that is willing to pay that kind of money with out forcing Detroit and/or Columbus back west (neither will happen).

There is no western city out there anymore that will pay that kind of money. You either forced to stay in arenas that just won't do anymore (coyotes and at some point the flames) or lower the price and relocate the team.

NHL has no leverage to demand that kind of a price on a relocation of a team where the alternative is being stuck in a market that isn't going to be building a new arena when the team needs one. The price will drop.

The price of an expansion team will never drop. The league and the owners would never devalue themselves like that. At best, you will see an expansion team sold a year or two later at the same price (but technically less on account of inflation), but I doubt any NHL expansion team is sold for less or equal to Seattles'* fee.


edit: Seattle, not Vegas

 

[TheLegend]

Won't be their decision once no one bites at the price point. Foley paid that much because it was vegas. What the market will bear should matter.

They didn’t let Paul Allen in on the cheap when it was probably the most practical. I don’t see it changing. Nor do I see them in a hurry.

 

[gstommylee]

The price of an expansion team will never drop. The league and the owners would never devalue themselves like that. At best, you will see an expansion team sold a year or two later at the same price (but technically less on account of inflation), but I doubt any NHL expansion team is sold for less or equal to Seattles'* fee.


edit: Seattle, not Vegas

I was never talking about expansion after Seattle is official team #32. I was talking about the price for relocation team. No one is going to pay 650m+ for purchase and relocation of a team.

NHL isn't going to go beyond 32 teams.

 

[gstommylee]

They didn’t let Paul Allen in on the cheap when it was probably the most practical. I don’t see it changing. Nor do I see them in a hurry.

Difference is the league wanted to balance the league thus 2 expansions to get it to 32 teams. The only time where they almost had to relocate a team which was the coyotes about 5 years ago and the rumored sale prices was 220m + oh 100m or there about for relocation fee to a group that would have moved them to Seattle.

When a league is desperate to have to relocate a team they don't have leverage over the sale/relocation total price. The fact what doesn't help is the NHL doesn't want to have another eastern conference team (aka it won't be 15/17).

 

[MNNumbers]

Reasonably, today's public comments take Fertitta out of the immediate loop. There is noise in some circles (the "I know someone who knows someone who heard this...." crowd - of which I am a part in this case....take that for what it's worth, which is nothing) that the Flames have Houston as a card to play since Bettman now hates Nenshi. However, today's comments take that one off the board. No way is he paying what Calgary is actually worth, and no way Edwards and King pay rent at Toyota Center.

They also take Houston out of the loop for the Coyotes. My figures, which are only ballpark, suggest that, at minimum, a buyer - even an out of market buyer - will have to pay 400M at least is order to make everyone come out even there in the Phoenix market. With what he said today, I can't see him doing so....

So, if Houston is out (unless a really favorable relo comes along, and I can't see that - not is he is saying 350M at most....), then the question becomes "what do you do with Arizona?"

And, there are only two answers:
1- Their relocation will be to Seattle, and it will be announced next spring. Where they will play in 19-20 I do not know, but I think there has got to be a temp facility that will allow them to lose less than 40M in the PNW, and 40M is about what they would lose in Phoenix.
2- Do nothing and continue to cover the losses in Phoenix market.

Caveat: The above applies only if the NHL is actually backing Barroway in Arizona. If the league is not, and AB is on his own, then everything depends on what kind of relocation clause he has in his purchase contract.

 

[Dirty Old Man]

And, there are only two answers:
1- Their relocation will be to Seattle, and it will be announced next spring. Where they will play in 19-20 I do not know, but I think there has got to be a temp facility that will allow them to lose less than 40M in the PNW, and 40M is about what they would lose in Phoenix.
2- Do nothing and continue to cover the losses in Phoenix market.

So my list above gets to include "...Seattle (3rd time)" in another year or two...noice!

 

[gstommylee]

Reasonably, today's public comments take Fertitta out of the immediate loop. There is noise in some circles (the "I know someone who knows someone who heard this...." crowd - of which I am a part in this case....take that for what it's worth, which is nothing) that the Flames have Houston as a card to play since Bettman now hates Nenshi. However, today's comments take that one off the board. No way is he paying what Calgary is actually worth, and no way Edwards and King pay rent at Toyota Center.

They also take Houston out of the loop for the Coyotes. My figures, which are only ballpark, suggest that, at minimum, a buyer - even an out of market buyer - will have to pay 400M at least is order to make everyone come out even there in the Phoenix market. With what he said today, I can't see him doing so....

So, if Houston is out (unless a really favorable relo comes along, and I can't see that - not is he is saying 350M at most....), then the question becomes "what do you do with Arizona?"

And, there are only two answers:
1- Their relocation will be to Seattle, and it will be announced next spring. Where they will play in 19-20 I do not know, but I think there has got to be a temp facility that will allow them to lose less than 40M in the PNW, and 40M is about what they would lose in Phoenix.
2- Do nothing and continue to cover the losses in Phoenix market.

Caveat: The above applies only if the NHL is actually backing Barroway in Arizona. If the league is not, and AB is not his own, then everything depends on what kind of relocation clause he has in his purchase contract.

Good lord MNN, NHL is not going to say no to a 650m price tag. Seattle is #32 unless their arena plan falls apart. Once arena is finalized, NHL will give full approval for Seattle has #32 in September.

There is no other option for expansion at 650m that balance out the league at 16/16m.

 

[MNNumbers]

Good lord MNN, NHL is not going to say no to a 650m price tag. Seattle is #32 unless their arena plan falls apart. Once arena is finalized, NHL will give full approval for Seattle has #32 in September.

There is no other option for expansion at 650m that balance out the league at 16/16m.

Tommy, you are not following my line of thinking.....

Should the BOG decide that they need a landing spot for the Coyotes, and that the landing spot is Seattle, then the price for Bruckheimer, Bonderman, and the Seattle Arena Group WILL BE 650M. That won't change.

The only thing that would change is that the BOG would no longer be losing money every year on the Coyotes' losses. That's the trade off. And, please follow.....I'm not predicting that will happen. I'm just saying that it COULD.

 

[TheLegend]

Difference is the league wanted to balance the league thus 2 expansions to get it to 32 teams. The only time where they almost had to relocate a team which was the coyotes about 5 years ago and the rumored sale prices was 220m + oh 100m or there about for relocation fee to a group that would have moved them to Seattle.

When a league is desperate to have to relocate a team they don't have leverage over the sale/relocation total price. The fact what doesn't help is the NHL doesn't want to have another eastern conference team (aka it won't be 15/17).

The league is obviously not desperate to move the Coyotes, are they??

The league ran for years with an odd number of teams and the World didn’t explode because of it.

I mean c’mon Tommy... at one point you had the Yotes all set to go to Seattle. Another time they’re going to QC. Then it was (insert one of DOM’s list here).

The common denominator in all this is nobody really knows what is going to happen.... yet everyone is dead sure what is going to happen.

I’m going back to my popcorn.

 

[MNNumbers]

The league is obviously not desperate to move the Coyotes, are they??

The league ran for years with an odd number of teams and the World didn’t explode because of it.

I mean c’mon Tommy... at one point you had the Yotes all set to go to Seattle. Another time they’re going to QC. Then it was (insert one of DOM’s list here).

The common denominator in all this is nobody really knows what is going to happen.... yet everyone is dead sure what is going to happen.

I’m going back to my popcorn.

Me, too Legend.

I just think today's comments by Fertitta are interesting because they seem to offer some information as to what WON"T happen. But, what will happen? Don't know. I just like that I think Bettman and the BOG are kind of in a tight spot that they made for themselves.

 

[Melrose Munch]

They didn’t let Paul Allen in on the cheap when it was probably the most practical. I don’t see it changing. Nor do I see them in a hurry.

Then the coyotes stay in the Phoenix area and people will pursue the MLS instead, and acutally make their money back.

I was never talking about expansion after Seattle is official team #32. I was talking about the price for relocation team. No one is going to pay 650m+ for purchase and relocation of a team.

NHL isn't going to go beyond 32 teams.

This is only partially true. The NHL will stop when they have capture most of the large markets. They have not done that yet, and you cant market the league with no team in Atlanta and Houston, you need one of those. And KC or Portland and Quebec. so 34 to 36.

 

[varsaku]

Except hockey appears to be doing very well in Nashville. Tampa Bay has been successful. Carolina had been successful in the past. Vegas has been hugely successful so far.

My take-away is that hockey can succeed in non-traditional markets where there is not substantial conflict with other sports (and more importantly, basketball). All of the markets I mentioned the team does not go up against basketball. Whereas in Miami, Phoenix, Dallas... there is a NBA franchise to compete against.

Every team you mentioned was/is successful only when they were good and struggled once they ran into poor form. A new NHL team in Houston would be too late to the party. The market is already heavily saturated with different pro teams. You would be going head to head against a really good rockets and astros team. Even with the rockets success they are mostly an afterthought because everyone is focused on the astros. Texans as usual dominate the market during their season regardless of performance. This NHL team better come out of the gates being pretty successful or they are going to struggle.

 

[gstommylee]

Then the coyotes stay in the Phoenix area and people will pursue the MLS instead, and acutally make their money back.

This is only partially true. The NHL will stop when they have capture most of the large markets. They have not done that yet, and you cant market the league with no team in Atlanta and Houston, you need one of those. And KC or Portland and Quebec. so 34 to 36.

One problem who is going to pay 650m+ after Seattle. I doubt Atlanta ever has a team again after they were kicked out of the arena. KC has zero interest. Houston (too costly) portland (too costly) quebec (eh i doubt they'll go for the higher fee. No way NHL takes anything less than 650m+)

 

[FMichael]

Translation: I’m not spending $650 million to introduce and grow the game of Hockey in Houston.

 

[Bookie21]

All this talk from Fertitta is just a negotiation ploy. If he shows a lot of interest publicly, his purchase price will just increase. He's a genius business man and master negotiator. He's playing it smartly, you don' want to show your cards

 

[Bjorn Le]

Don’t think this means anything. He’s balking at the NHLs price and is making comments in public about the lack of success to southern franchises (of which he’s mostly wrong) to prove a point to the league their price is outlandish.

 

[Gnashville]

He needs to do more research!!

I don’t blame him for not wanting to spend $650 million on a team not named Maple Leafs, but don’t throw every Southern city under the bus. It’s taken years for us to start to be acceptable to condescending media and fans, don’t destroy all the hard work of others.

 

[gstommylee]

He needs to do more research!!

I don’t blame him for not wanting to spend $650 million on a team not named Maple Leafs, but don’t throw every Southern city under the bus. It’s taken years for us to start to be acceptable to condescending media and fans, don’t destroy all the hard work of others.

And how much did it cost nashville to get the team?

 

[Llama19]

And how much did it cost nashville to get the team?

In 1998...20 years ago...
for the expansion team, Nashville Predators...$80 million...

As far as the cost to the city itself?

 

[TheLegend]

And how much did it cost nashville to get the team?

Rhetorical question.

 

[mouser]

I agree that this is part of the negotiations for the coyotes. However, having said this publicly, I think it makes such a transaction much more difficult.

How do you walk back those comments and then purchase s team and try to market what you said doesn't have a market?

The potential customers you're targeting simply won't care what was said in the past.

 

[Melrose Munch]

One problem who is going to pay 650m+ after Seattle. I doubt Atlanta ever has a team again after they were kicked out of the arena. KC has zero interest. Houston (too costly) portland (too costly) quebec (eh i doubt they'll go for the higher fee. No way NHL takes anything less than 650m+)

Exactly, so they have to lower the price.

Every team you mentioned was/is successful only when they were good and struggled once they ran into poor form. A new NHL team in Houston would be too late to the party. The market is already heavily saturated with different pro teams. You would be going head to head against a really good rockets and astros team. Even with the rockets success they are mostly an afterthought because everyone is focused on the astros. Texans as usual dominate the market during their season regardless of performance. This NHL team better come out of the gates being pretty successful or they are going to struggle.

I think it would be fine, even at 650m, but the goal is to make as much money as possible and the price point does not allow for that right now.

 

[Svechhammer]

I'm not buying it. At the youth level, hockey is exploding across the south. I know in Raleigh, Nashville, and parts of Florida, the youth programs have really taken off. In Raleigh, there is actually legit talent to go with the uptick in volume, where we've had teams compete in and win some major national youth tournaments.

The NHL team struggles because the ownership and management didn't know what the hell they were doing for the vast majority of the time they've been here. Its hard to get people to come watch a product that, in its best years the past decade, has been on the bad side of mediocre with no superstar talent to draw interest during bad years. People just don't like following bad teams, and you can see that throughout all sports. But as we also have seen with Nashville, and when Florida had their run in the 90s and Carolina had their runs in the early 2000s, when the teams are competitive, the arenas are some of the most entertaining and intimidating venues in the sport.

Really loathe the broad stroke generalization that the South is bad for hockey. Couldn't be further from the truth, and anyone who is legitimately paying attention knows this.

 

[Killion]

I'm not buying it.

No nor am I as stated earlier. Tilman Fertitta is either uninformed or he's trying to send a message to Bettman & the NHL, negotiating through the media with that comment. One that will not endear him to the League who dont like being reminded of their failures.... So which is it do you suppose? Does he not understand that success or failure starts & stops with ownership? Because if he doesnt get that & instead blames market & location then Houston, you have a problem.

If he's stating it thinking the NHL's going to accept that & thus comply in giving him a discount on either an existing team or on the price tag attached to Expansion in devaluing his market which is obviously well south of the Mason-Dixon then me thinks he's seriously mistaken. A really pretty intemperate & ignorant thing to say one way or the other. Had he said instead that the cost of entry seems awfully high & isnt penciling out for him but its still something we'd love to be involved with or whatever & will be pursuing, something along those lines.... fine. Doubt the NHL's gonna be upset about it though. Likely find it amusing. Obvious.