F Shane Wright - Kingston Frontenacs, OHL (2022 Draft) Part 2

[lomiller1]

What evidence do you have to suggest this? What makes Wright worse than picks like Nuge, Yakupov, Ekblad, Hischier or Power?

You have to go back 11 drafts (Yakupov) to find a 1OA less likely to be an elite player than Wright. Power could be debatable, but Ekblad was ahead of where Wright is and Hischier was taken over a player who followed a very similar CHL career to Wright. Nolen Patrick was considered the "clear #1OA, sure fire top line elite C" for at least 2 years prior to the 2017 draft but had a mediocre draft year that raised questions about him.

The difference is that the Devils could switch from "the clear consensus #1" without their fanbase rebelling.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

You have to go back 11 drafts (Yakupov) to find a 1OA less likely to be an elite player than Wright. Power could be debatable, but Ekblad was ahead of where Wright is and Hischier was taken over a player who followed a very similar CHL career to Wright. Nolen Patrick was considered the "clear #1OA, sure fire top line elite C" for at least 2 years prior to the 2017 draft but had a mediocre draft year that raised questions about him.

The difference is that the Devils could switch from "the clear consensus #1" without their fanbase rebelling.

Personally, I would say Wright has a better chance to be a STAR than Hischier did. Hischier did some things better for sure, but Wright's shot is league's better and gives him the potential to be a 40+ goal C. As for Ekblad, again debatable, I think Ekblad had an even higher floor but Wright might have a slightly higher ceiling.

In the end though, none of this will matter once he makes the NHL as his development will be unique like it is for all players.

 

[Maitz]

Right? Like someone should have told the Lightning back in 98 that Vinny wasn't going to be the best in the draft, and that some guy named Pavel Datsyuk who nobody had heard of should be the top pick. What a terrible decision for them to take the nearly unanimous #1, even though his shine had dwindled a little and some people were saying Legwand had closed the gap.

Exactly! It’s so easy to say that 10 years after and there is so much people saying things just to say I TOLD YOU 10 years after

 

[le_sean]

And the scouts, the ones watching all these players thoroughly seem divided, if not prefering Slafkovsky

Even from the executives, most of the sentiment is that he was really good at 15/previous years. One fo them even says he didnt play as a number 1 this season. So it seems they are still heavily valueing hi splay from previous years

Whereas the scouts are saying Slafkovsky is on a steeper upward trajectory and better this year

What steep upward trajectory? The guy had 6 even strength points in 31 Liiga games while averaging over 14 minutes a game.

Or are we basing this steep upward trajectory on 30% shooting from mid to long range in an Olympics full of ECHL level talent? Or scoring 8 points against non-hockey countries like France, Italy, Kazakhstan and Denmark?

 

[Captain97]

IMO there are several players who have potentially higher ceilings than Wright. Wright, as pointed out here, was a man at 16. He was (and is) fully physically developed. Not much room to mature more. Other guys are going to get a lot stronger as they catch up to him in their maturation. Wright is already ahead as a player though than these guys, but some of them could catch up and pass him. Like you say, we won't know this until all the players fully develop. Wright could still be the best of the bunch, so for sure the Habs should take him. He's pretty much a guaranteed top nine guy. And likely top six.

No man is physically developed at 16 unless they are a mutant/freak of nature.

The amount of muscle that's put on between 16 and 23 is absurd.

 

[majormajor]

What steep upward trajectory? The guy had 6 even strength points in 31 Liiga games while averaging over 14 minutes a game.

Or are we basing this steep upward trajectory on 30% shooting from mid to long range in an Olympics full of ECHL level talent? Or scoring 8 points against non-hockey countries like France, Italy, Kazakhstan and Denmark?

Among those that actually watched Slovakia games at the WC, I don't think there's much confusion about who the best player on the ice was. It isn't about the points. He was going up against NHL D- men and beating them. He could have easily had more points vs teams like Canada.

 

[WeThreeKings]

And the scouts, the ones watching all these players thoroughly seem divided, if not prefering Slafkovsky

Even from the executives, most of the sentiment is that he was really good at 15/previous years. One fo them even says he didnt play as a number 1 this season. So it seems they are still heavily valueing hi splay from previous years

Whereas the scouts are saying Slafkovsky is on a steeper upward trajectory and better this year

Or the scouts are falling into recency bias and rating his WC well over his pedestrian Liiga year.

 

[majormajor]

No man is physically developed at 16 unless they are a mutant/freak of nature.

The amount of muscle that's put on between 16 and 23 is absurd.

That really overstates it. A guy who is 6'1 190 at age 16 is probably not going to be putting on more than five to fifteen lbs of muscle from then on.

 

[Captain97]

That really overstates it. A guy who is 6'1 190 at age 16 is probably not going to be putting on more than five to fifteen lbs of muscle from then on.

15lbs of muscle is a ton. Like an insane amount. 10 would be a lot.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

This might age poorly, i will be coming back to this post after the draft
and see who got the LOL.

It isn't as clear cut thing as most think it is.

You can quote me also then

Habs are 1000% picking Shane Wright at #1

 

[majormajor]

15lbs of muscle is a ton. Like an insane amount. 10 would be a lot.

Weird. I just gained 10 lbs of muscle in a two month bulking cycle. I didn't think it was an insane absolutely staggering amount. Got any more overblown adjectives for it?

The main point is that that small amount is all you should expect if a guy is already 6'1 190, most players could gain more muscle beyond 6'1, 205, but they choose not to because it isn't the ideal playing weight for hockey, unless you're Bo Horvat or something.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Weird. I just gained 10 lbs of muscle in a two month bulking cycle. I didn't think it was an insane absolutely staggering amount. Got any more overblown adjectives for it?

The main point is that that small amount is all you should expect if a guy is already 6'1 190, most players could gain more muscle beyond 6'1, 205, but they choose not to because it isn't the ideal playing weight for hockey, unless you're Bo Horvat or something.

That ignores that even if the weight gain isn't significant, the "man strength gain" is. Even if a kid weighs 190 lbs as a 16 or 17 year old and only gains about 10 to 15 lbs. when he's in his early to mid 20's, he's probably gotten a lot stronger with that gain as well. Just because a kid is already close to his "max adult weight" at 16 or 17 doesn't mean he's already reached his physical maturity early.

Hell, I had a classmate who went on to play in the CFL. He was a big dude even in Grade 9/10 when he was already 230 lbs. He probably only gained about 10 extra pounds when he turned pro, but the difference in his actual strength between the 230 lbs. 15 year old and the 240 lbs. adult was massive.

 

[Captain97]

Weird. I just gained 10 lbs of muscle in a two month bulking cycle. I didn't think it was an insane absolutely staggering amount. Got any more overblown adjectives for it?

The main point is that that small amount is all you should expect if a guy is already 6'1 190, most players could gain more muscle beyond 6'1, 205, but they choose not to because it isn't the ideal playing weight for hockey, unless you're Bo Horvat or something.

You put on 10lbs of muscle in 2 months? Or did you put on 10lbs total? Cause 10lbs of muscle in 2 months is an insane amount.

Experienced lifters generally put on around 2lbs of muscle a month. With the highest recorded being 7lbs. So 10lbs of muscle in 2 months is like top 5% of body builders or you just started lifting (even then that's a lot).

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

Weird. I just gained 10 lbs of muscle in a two month bulking cycle. I didn't think it was an insane absolutely staggering amount. Got any more overblown adjectives for it?

The main point is that that small amount is all you should expect if a guy is already 6'1 190, most players could gain more muscle beyond 6'1, 205, but they choose not to because it isn't the ideal playing weight for hockey, unless you're Bo Horvat or something.

I'm sorry but there's no way that's all muscle. Likely less than half, that's still amazing progress though! Like the poster above said, 5 lbs of lean muscle per month is basically impossible, even with steroids that would be an insane amount to gain.

I've definitely put on 10 lbs in a few months too, but it isn't all muscle

 

[majormajor]

You put on 10lbs of muscle in 2 months? Or did you put on 10lbs total? Cause 10lbs of muscle in 2 months is an insane amount.

Experienced lifters generally put on around 2lbs of muscle a month. With the highest recorded being 7lbs. So 10lbs of muscle in 2 months is like top 5% of body builders or you just started lifting (even then that's a lot).

I gained 20 lbs total (and maybe that is less than half muscle, hard to tell). If a guy is lifting year round then obviously it's slow going. But if you're like me and you're just popping back up to your prime after years off, it's not that hard. Stop calling everything "insane". Kids like Pickering and Rinzel might be able to gain something like 40-50 lbs of good weight by the time they're at their primes. If 15 lbs is "insane" then what do you call that? I could see Jiricek gaining thirty lbs, is he a circus freak?

 

[Naslundforever]

Weird. I just gained 10 lbs of muscle in a two month bulking cycle. I didn't think it was an insane absolutely staggering amount. Got any more overblown adjectives for it?

The main point is that that small amount is all you should expect if a guy is already 6'1 190, most players could gain more muscle beyond 6'1, 205, but they choose not to because it isn't the ideal playing weight for hockey, unless you're Bo Horvat or something.

After Subban ate a cow and gained all that weight one summer he started blowing tires on those sharp turns and lost his pep. However I thought Eller really took the extra weight well. Seems to depend a lot on the athlete (checking… I see they are only listed st 210 and 205; I remember them both being stringy beans and beefing up though…)

 

[majormajor]

I'm sorry but there's no way that's all muscle. Likely less than half, that's still amazing progress though! Like the poster above said, 5 lbs of lean muscle per month is basically impossible, even with steroids that would be an insane amount to gain.

I've definitely put on 10 lbs in a few months too, but it isn't all muscle

Yeah I probably just got fat.

Getting back to the point - there are kids in this age group that have the space on their frames to gain 20 or even 30 lbs, a few even 40+ lbs. Wright is not one of them.

 

[Zilo44]

Gaining only lean muscle mass is hard. I’m currently at 150 (I have more of a runner shape) and I decided to bulk up a few years ago. I got to 180 and I can tell you it’s not only muscle. I gained a lot of muscle (core, legs, arms and chest) but my hips and face were definitely showed I gained fat too). Then again, I was not trained like a body build so the fat gain was probably higher than a pro athlete.

All this to say I don’t believe you can put up 10-15 pounds of lean muscle over a summer. And I don’t think focusing on that makes you a much better hockey player. Improving your explosion and VO2 max is probably much more usefull

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Gaining only lean muscle mass is hard. I’m currently at 150 (I have more of a runner shape) and I decided to bulk up a few years ago. I got to 180 and I can tell you it’s not only muscle. I gained a lot of muscle (core, legs, arms and chest) but my hips and face were definitely showed I gained fat too). Then again, I was not trained like a body build so the fat gain was probably higher than a pro athlete.

All this to say I don’t believe you can put up 10-15 pounds of lean muscle over a summer. And I don’t think focusing on that makes you a much better hockey player. Improving your explosion and VO2 max is probably much more usefull

Depending on your body type, its more than feasible to put on 10 - 15 lbs of muscle over a 4 month period. That's not even debatable. However, i agree that doing so may be detrimental for a hockey player as it could have a negative impact on agility and speed.

 

[Zilo44]

Depending on your body type, its more than feasible to put on 10 - 15 lbs of muscle over a 4 month period. That's not even debatable. However, i agree that doing so may be detrimental for a hockey player as it could have a negative impact on agility and speed.

I don’t know about that one and how you can measure that. 15 lbs of lean muscle mass in 4 months seems a lot (1 lbs a week) but I’m not an expert so what do I know

 

[TheDoldrums]

The guy had 6 even strength points in 31 Liiga games while averaging over 14 minutes a game.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

I don’t know about that one and how you can measure that. 15 lbs of lean muscle mass in 4 months seems a lot (1 lbs a week) but I’m not an expert so what do I know

Depends on your body type. Someone like Brendan Gallagher would never be able to achieve that. Someone like a young (18 year-old) Lucic easily can with the right nutrition and training. Hollywood actors achieve this with ease in a 4 month period but have professional trainers / nutritionists. Actor Kumail Nanjiani is a good example. He went from 150lbs and 20% body fat to 175lbs with 10% body fat in less than 10 months. That is an unusual case but for professional athletes its doable.

 

[lomiller1]

Depending on your body type, its more than feasible to put on 10 - 15 lbs of muscle over a 4 month period. That's not even debatable. However, i agree that doing so may be detrimental for a hockey player as it could have a negative impact on agility and speed.

Rule of thumb is 1-1.5 lbs of muscle per month. It usually takes prospects several years to gain 10-15 lbs of muscle because hockey players generally have a hard time gaining muscle in season.

 

[lomiller1]

That could explain his poor production (for a prospective 1OA) in Liiga. This implies he could have been up near 1 point per game, which would make someone with his physical attributes the elite level prospects that is missing from this draft. Could have isn't quite the same as did, though. Still interesting if true.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

This just tells me that if Slafovsky was a better player he would have had better production.