Blue Jays Discussion: Everything sucks except the all-star: Justin Smoak

[zeke]

that's why I used the adjusted eras and fips, not the raw ones. pitching and coors doesn't excuse throwing more walks than strikeouts.

 

[Discoverer]

You weren't laughing when people were gagaing over 4 whole starts.

Last 7 days includes 1/3 of his starts this year, and 1/6 of his career starts.

When he only had four starts, I looked at his performance over the entire season. I'm doing the same now.

 

[Eyedea]

For years AA was accused of hoarding prospects and doing nothing with them. Then he burns through a bunch when the opportunity was ripe which brought two long playoff runs, and that shouldn't have been done either.

It's as if AA should have been like that kid who lines up all his precious Hot Wheels on the window sill and won't let a single person touch them.

Theo Epstein?

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

To be fair, his last two starts were at Coors. You can pretty much throw those out. Clayton Kershaw hasn't even been able to figure out how to pitch at Coors, and he's the best pitcher any of us have ever seen.

To be fair to Zeke (and I can't believe you guys keep making me say that), he did say "I'll wait until he gets to Coors" when people were gushing over his four starts a couple weeks ago.

That whole argument is\was weird. You had Metafour on the far left saying Hoffman was elite, then Eyedea and Discoverer center left saying he is good and has the chance to be really good if his K rate continues to improve; Me center right saying he's good but I don't buy the K rate given who he faced, and then faaaarrr right Zeke doing his napalm thing.

Like I said last week, we should wait until he faces several teams before we make any other pronouncements other than the Velo is awesome and he clearly has the potential that caused him to be taken so high in the draft even with the injury.

 

[zeke]

When he only had four starts, I looked at his performance over the entire season. I'm doing the same now.

He has 12 career starts. No reason to look at some not others. If your argument is recency, then his recent starts have been poor.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

For years AA was accused of hoarding prospects and doing nothing with them. Then he burns through a bunch when the opportunity was ripe which brought two long playoff runs, and that shouldn't have been done either.

It's as if AA should have been like that kid who lines up all his precious Hot Wheels on the window sill and won't let a single person touch them.

Any reasonable person (devoid of an agenda) won't really complain about any of the prospect heavy moves, save for the Dickey trade.

However, you'll always have a very specific portion of the fan base that will do the typical "Daniel Norris went seven shut-out innings last night; why did we ever trade him!" thing. Heck, I heard people still talking about Michael Young up until a few years ago.

 

[Discoverer]

He has 12 career starts. No reason to look at some not others. If your argument is recency, then his recent starts have been poor.

I don't consider the offseason to be an arbitrary end point, particularly when it comes to players just breaking into the league, so I'm perfectly comfortable looking at what he's done this year in isolation.

 

[zeke]

"Past 1 Calendar Year" totals on fangraphs:


RF Bautista: 536pa, .351obp, 108wrc+, 1.2war/650
C Martin: 492pa, .364obp, 117wrc+, 3.7war/650
3B Donaldson: 518pa, .412obp, 155wrc+, 7.2war/650
1B Smoak: 400pa, .328obp, 121wrc+, 2.3war/650
DH Morales: 634pa, .334obp, 124wrc+, 1.6war/650
2B Travis: 542pa, .324obp, 104wrc+, 3.5war/650
SS Tulowitzki: 491pa, .324obp, 100wrc+, 2.8war/650
LF Pearce: 214pa, .322obp, 100wrc+, 0.6war/650
CF Pillar: 600pa, .309obp, 81wrc+, 2.0war/650

UT Coghlan: 198pa, .350obp, 88wrc+, 1.0war/650
OF Carrera: 384pa, .327obp, 85wrc+, 0.7war/650
IF Barney: 286pa, .283obp, 61wrc+, 0.2war/650
IF Goins: 215pa, .278obp, 62wrc+, -1.5war/650
C Maile: 214pa, .213obp, 30wrc+, -1.5war/650



SP Sanchez: 21gs, 6.0ip/gs, 67era-, 91fip-, 102xfip-, 4.6war/32
SP Stroman: 31gs, 6.3ip/gs, 78era-, 84fip-, 76xfip-, 4.4war/32
SP Happ: 25gs, 5.7ip/gs, 77era-, 83fip-, 85xfip-, 4.2war/32
SP Estrada: 31gs, 5.6ip/gs, 107era-, 93fip-, 101xfip-, 2.5war/32
SP Liriano: 19gs, 5.1ip/gs, 97era-, 99fip-, 98xfip-, 1.9war/32
SP Biagini: 9gs, 4.9ip/gs, 111era-, 78fip-, 90xfip-, 1.8war/32


RP Osuna 72.2ip, 2.26wpa, 66era-, 70fip-, 79xfip-, 1.9war/65
RP Barnes 45.0ip, 0.26wpa, 64era-, 67fip-, 93xfip-, 1.4war/65
RP Biagini 61.2ip, 2.09wpa, 74era-, 68fip-, 74xfip-, 1.3war/65
RP Tepera 52.2ip, 1.57wpa, 55era-, 69fip-, 95xfip-, 1.3war/65
RP Smith 58.1ip, 1.71wpa, 76era-, 80fip-, 65xfip-, 1.1war/65
RP Loup 37.0ip, 0.44wpa, 72era-, 79fip-, 95xfip-, 0.8war/65
RP Howell 38.0ip, -0.55wpa, 109era-, 86fip-, 93xfip-, 0.2war/65
RP Leone 56.1ip, -0.98wpa, 102era-, 105fip-, 110xfip-, 0.1war/65
RP Grilli 57.0ip, -0.85wpa, 113era-, 135fip-, 91xfip-, -0.4war/65

 

[zeke]

I don't consider the offseason to be an arbitrary end point,

but it is.

 

[Discoverer]

but it is.

Do you think prospect development over the offseason is the same as it is from start to start?

Did you see Aaron Sanchez as a ~3.50 FIP guy or a ~4.00 FIP guy coming into the season?

 

[zeke]

I think splitting small samples into tinier samples makes you see things that aren't there.

And again, none of this supposed "offseason development" was apparent in his AAA performance.

 

[zeke]

A good time as any for an update on.....


Team AA-Traded Kids

1. 3B Lawrie (27): 2417pa, 100wrc+, 3.3war/650pa
2. LF Thames (29): 962pa, 110wrc+, 1.1war/650pa
3. DH D'Arnaud (28): 1220pa, 97wrc+, 1.3war/650pa
4. C Gomes (29): 1773pa, 91wrc+, 3.1war/650pa
5. RF Snider (29): 1971pa, 93wrc+, 1.3war/650pa
6. 1B Wallace (30): 1440pa, 94wrc+, -0.4war/650pa
7. CF Marisnick (26): 1155pa, 73wrc+, 2.8war/650pa
8. SS Hechavarria (28): 2402pa, 70wrc+, 0.5war/650pa
9. 2B Pastornicky (27): 268pa, 67wrc+, -4.0war/650pa

UT Lugo (22): AA 460pa, 118wrc+
OF Gose (26): 1252pa, 81wrc+, 1.0war/650pa
OF Becerra (22): A+ 530pa, 105wrc+
IF Barreto (21): AAA 316pa, 97wrc+
C Perez (25): 587pa, 64wrc+, 1.2war/650pa



SP Syndergaard (24): 59gs, 76era-, 5.1war/32gs
SP Desclafani (27): 56gs, 101era-, 2.5war/32gs
SP Alvarez (27): 92gs, 97era-, 2.2war/32gs
SP Norris (24): 40gs, 92era-, 2.2war/32gs
SP Graveman (26): 60gs, 101era-, 1.9war/32gs

SP Hoffman (24): 12gs, 93era-, 1.6war/32gs
SP Musgrove (24): 22gs, 113era-, 1.6war/32gs
SP Nicolino (25): 29gs, 118era-, 0.4war/32gs
SP Boyd (26): 41gs, 138era-, 0.1war/32gs
SP DeJong (23): 4gs, 187era-, -1.9war/32gs

SP Nolin (27): 7gs, 174era-, -1.6war/32gs
SP Wojciechowski (28): 7gs, 205era-, -2.1war/32gs


RP Dyson (29): 217.2ip, 80era-, 0.7war/65ip
RP Collins (27): 211.0ip, 87era-, 0.4war/65ip
RP Rzepczynski (31): 284.1ip, 90era-, 0.3war/65ip
RP Castro (22): 40.2ip, 127era-, -0.7war/65ip
RP Stewart (30): 28.2ip, 119era-, -0.8war/65ip
RP Magnuson (31): 14.2ip, 155era-, -0.8war/65ip
RP Rollins (27): 34.1ip, 194era-, -1.1war/65ip

RP Comer (24): AAA 37.0ip, 1.95era, 2.99fip, 3.75xfip
RP Cordero (25): AAA 1.1ip, 27.00era, 6.17fip, 7.76xfip
RP Molina (28): AAA 4.0ip, 13.50era, 8.41fip, 3.53xfip
RP Labourt (23): AA 25.1ip, 1.42era, 1.56fip, 2.42xfip
RP Tirado (22): A+ 135.0ip, 3.53era, 4.62fip, 4.11xfip
RP Tinoco (22): A+ 68.0ip, 6.62era, 5.16fip, 5.19xfip
RP Wells (21): A 146.2ip, 6.08era, 5.16fip, 4.42xfip

 

[ShaneFalco]

Geez Pearce, been hanging with Lupul?
I'd put Tulo down lower

 

[LeafsNation75]

While you can say the Blue Jays might get a good return for Osuna if they did trade him, wouldn't people like Jeff Blair than complain how they have no bullpen.

 

[theaub]

I mean if you can trade him for Kristaps you have to do it

 

[Mach85]

To be fair to Zeke (and I can't believe you guys keep making me say that), he did say "I'll wait until he gets to Coors" when people were gushing over his four starts a couple weeks ago.

That whole argument is\was weird. You had Metafour on the far left saying Hoffman was elite, then Eyedea and Discoverer center left saying he is good and has the chance to be really good if his K rate continues to improve; Me center right saying he's good but I don't buy the K rate given who he faced, and then faaaarrr right Zeke doing his napalm thing.

Like I said last week, we should wait until he faces several teams before we make any other pronouncements other than the Velo is awesome and he clearly has the potential that caused him to be taken so high in the draft even with the injury.

I think the moderate approach is wise at this point. The stuff has been impressive, but we're far from knowing who Jeff Hoffman is, and the TJ recovery throws an additional wrench into interpretation. Also, Coors offers unique challenges for any pitcher, let alone a younger one who's getting his footing against big-league hitters. Revisiting this debate start-by-start isn't going to provide anything but a hot-take based pissing match.

 

[Morgs]

Baseball is funny.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I mean if you can trade him for Kristaps you have to do it

Osuna for Porzingis? Don't know about that.

 

[zeke]

A's dfa'd Vogt. I'd jump on that.

 

[zeke]

Baseball is funny.

Bryant 136wrc+
Contreras 89wrc+
Baez 84wrc+
Schwarber 78wrc+
Russell 75wrc+

(Happ 122wrc+)
(Almora 100wrc+)

not exactly the young upcoming murderers' row they were hoping for.

 

[Eyedea]

Osuna for Porzingis? Don't know about that.

Yeah I'm a need their 2017 first as well (Dennis Smith pls)

 

[Loosie]

Well ****...

 

[The Nemesis]

Why can't we have nice things?

 

[doorman]

Well ****...

UGHHHHH, that's not cool I picked him in in my interactive games. Oh well, on a none Jays game note, just found out we won a spot to a Blue Jays Alumni Autograph session on Sunday, so that's pretty cool.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Well ****...

That's unfortunate and sucks for the Jays.