OT: Everything COVID19 - PART IX

[Sensmileletsgo]

~ 12% of Canadians have had covid
~ 33% of all Canadians are vaccinated. ONE SHOT ONLY
~ 3% of all Canadians are fully vaccinated (Both shots)

On the crazy assumption that the two groups are fully separate. The net total is 45% of all Canadians have some level of protection and only 15% have a PRESUMED full level of protection and 3% have a high confidence level of protection.

The USA has ~ 46% of people with at least one dose. 33% fully and ~ 33% have had covid
So: Net 79%, 66% and 33%

the UK has ~ 66% one dose, 31% fully and 15 % who have had it
So: Net 81%, 45% and 31%

We have to continue to lockdown... Until the total of those of have had it and those that have received a first dose is ~ 80%.. we are at 45%.. We need ~ 10,000,000 more Canadians to get shot one.

Ontario web site ~ 6,200,000 first doses give. Population ~ 15 million. So ~41%. ~ 2.3% fully vaccinated...~ 11% have had covid. So ~ 52%...we need ~ 4.2 million Ontario residents to get the first shot.. 44 days form now.

Lockdowns end on May 24....

33% of Americans have had covid? That doesn’t sound right.

 

[InTkachukWeTrust]

Think of the hundred of thousands of kids and people struggling with mental health issues.

This is ridiculous.

I would imagine most of the population of feeling what I am.

For the record, if anyone’s having a rough go feel free to reach out.

 

[Beech]

33% of Americans have had covid? That doesn’t sound right.

~ 33 million tested. The silent spread is ~ 3.1-3.2 (asymptomatics that never knew they had it).
Making the total ~ 110 million.
Population ~ 330,000 (granted ~ 20 million undocumented residents). S0 ~ 33%..closer to 30-31%.

Canada has a spread that is closer to 4. Our 1.3 million test is ~ 5.2 million or ~ 12%-13%

The spread in the USA and the UK is what is saving them now. They have a very high vaccination rate which has pretty much covered their entire vulnerable population. The non vulnerable had been running around getting infected in droves, driving up the "protection numbers".

It's why Mexico has stopped. Brazil has slowed, Argentina has not..80% to 67% and negligible vaccine distribution. North and South Dakota, all above 80% with the asymptomatic correction and have stopped. Colorado has slowed significantly thanks to the combo of vaccine and high infection numbers. Ditto for many states.

Its also why some eastern European nations have slowed, even though their vaccination rates are modest..High infection rates. The sum of infected and first vaccine dose is key. Approach 80% and you will slowed infections down considerably and impact death even more.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[DylanSensFan]

They're already trialing the combined vaccines to see what effectiveness they can reach and how long they last in conjunction. My problem is with the person I responded to who has been sensationalizing everything Covid related since this thing started.

The vaccines do not offer 100% immunity with no transmissibility. That's not what the vaccines were made to accomplish and they've been publicly releasing trial data and information about the vaccines for months now. Yet we still have people like him spreading false narratives. It's disgusting and it should be met with extreme pushback.

The mRNA vaccines will create almost 100% immunity based on efficacy. With a booster shot for the most virulent variants, we will see even better coverage. Efficacy relates to immunity. So yes, not 100%. But we can drastically cut down transmissibility with these vaccines to about 10% of the population and then we can get back to more normal living, whilst we find solutions for the rest.

The thing to understand, is that in order to spread the virus, you have to have the virus at a cellular level, and then have enough virus to shed the virus. the mRNA and even DNA AstraZeneca are teaching our cells to defend themselves. Which means if the virus cannot enter the cell and replicate, it is unable to transmit.

There is never a magic bullet so to speak. But, mRNA vaccines are opening up an entirely new realm of possibility in terms of pandemic protection.

 

[DylanSensFan]

I'm interested to hear about length of Astrazeneca and JJ effectiveness as well. Using adenovirus vectors, there will potentially be issue with booster shots (they may not work) as the body can develop immunity to it. Hopefully the virus avoids significant mutation and the shots will remain relevant. The mRNA is more like, oh the virus changed, well we can try and target it better now. But the protection seems to be shorter lasting from the sounds of it.

I think if we use combinations of the vaccines, it will likely create a better immunity. The mRNA definitely have a massive efficacy, far better than any flu vaccines we've ever created before. Moderna is already working on a booster for the variants. We will have these motherf***er pegged soon and then we can get back to being a functional society again. Unfortunately, the worst kinds of people have also come out of the wood work, because of this pandemic. Lets hope empathy and logic both win the day.

 

[Sens]

Hopefully we can get out of lockdown soon.

At the start of the pandemic I was fine but I can feel like mental health slipping.

Ontario's top health official says daily case counts would have to be 'well below' 1,000 to lift stay-at-home order

 

[DaveMatthew]

World’s Most-Vaccinated Nation Seychelles Sees Covid Surge

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

Ontario's top health official says daily case counts would have to be 'well below' 1,000 to lift stay-at-home order

Just looking at the current trend of cases counts (see Dr Jennifer Kwan’s daily Twitter updates) we’ll probably get to 1000 per day in about 4 weeks.
ICU occupancy I think is quite a bit harder to guess, as that has just recently started to trend down, and I think it’s got a few more variables than daily case counts (eg how quickly people are recovering, what % of people in ICU actually die, etc).

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

World’s Most-Vaccinated Nation Seychelles Sees Covid Surge

They have almost solely used the Chinese state-owned Sinopharm vaccine. The Chinese government has come out and said that vaccine does not work well. The WHO just approved it. I don’t get it.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Saagar Enjeti details the "lab leak hypothesis" and demonstrates the way "the culture war in America corrupts basic facts

You still don't understand that youtube links are NOT reliable information. It's like listening to the crazy guy ranting on a street corner.

If you still don't get it by now.....

 

[Stylizer1]

You still don't understand that youtube links are NOT reliable information. It's like listening to the crazy guy ranting on a street corner.

If you still don't get it by now.....

Have you looked at what is being discussed in the clip. To verify if what is being said is accurate? The way I look at it is an opinion on a newsworthy story. On the surface I have no idea if what is being said is true so the onus is on me to look into it. Its no different if CNN or CBC do the same. Important facts could be left out that help explain the situation. I would like to think there are some independent people who are passionate about gaining a better understanding.


In this clip they are speaking about Nicholas Wade, a British author and journalist. He served as the staff writer for the Science Times section of The New York Times from 1982 to 2012.

Here is the article they are speaking of:

The origin of COVID: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box at Wuhan? - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

It is up to you whether or not to take it further or classify it as some guy on a street corner.

I still don't get why people don't actually listen to what is being said objectively and try to learn more about it. The simplicity of it is that people really don't care except for telling you that you can't be right . that's easy.

If I post a clip someone always argues about the messenger but never actually critics the message I'm not trying to preach but expose an opinion that should be worthy of debate.

I posted a clip about the virus possibly being released from a lab a year ago but because it wasn't a mainstream story it couldn't have been even close to the truth. Instead people are shown wet markets that have been around for thousands of years and people eating bat soup as a way to fill in the blanks because the public demands answers.(they don't even have to be right) They log that in their subconscious and never need to update their opinion, like with most media stories.

There is sensationalism everywhere but in it there is a story that is waiting to be understood.

 

[Raze The Stray]

I would imagine most of the population of feeling what I am.

For the record, if anyone’s having a rough go feel free to reach out.

Seriously though good on you and I echo it. I don't post too often but I'm always around and willing to debate if there's even a cup to pour water into as a form of larger discussion on the full/empty ratio or if colloquial metaphors have just robbed me of half a drink. There's no way I could leave a fellow Sens' fan or or Ottawa(n?) of poorer tastes in hockey fandom hanging.

 

[coladin]

~ 12% of Canadians have had covid
~ 33% of all Canadians are vaccinated. ONE SHOT ONLY
~ 3% of all Canadians are fully vaccinated (Both shots)

On the crazy assumption that the two groups are fully separate. The net total is 45% of all Canadians have some level of protection and only 15% have a PRESUMED full level of protection and 3% have a high confidence level of protection.

The USA has ~ 46% of people with at least one dose. 33% fully and ~ 33% have had covid
So: Net 79%, 66% and 33%

the UK has ~ 66% one dose, 31% fully and 15 % who have had it
So: Net 81%, 45% and 31%

We have to continue to lockdown... Until the total of those of have had it and those that have received a first dose is ~ 80%.. we are at 45%.. We need ~ 10,000,000 more Canadians to get shot one.

Ontario web site ~ 6,200,000 first doses give. Population ~ 15 million. So ~41%. ~ 2.3% fully vaccinated...~ 11% have had covid. So ~ 52%...we need ~ 4.2 million Ontario residents to get the first shot.. 44 days form now.

Lockdowns end on May 24....

I think the number is 11 or 12 million as you include babies, toddlers and children under the age of 12. Ontario is closer, and if they continue at around 130K a day, by June 2, the province should be near 9 milllion, and they can start to reopen safely

 

[Here I Pageau Again]

Just looking at the current trend of cases counts (see Dr Jennifer Kwan’s daily Twitter updates) we’ll probably get to 1000 per day in about 4 weeks.
ICU occupancy I think is quite a bit harder to guess, as that has just recently started to trend down, and I think it’s got a few more variables than daily case counts (eg how quickly people are recovering, what % of people in ICU actually die, etc).

Death rate among ICU Covid patients is about 30% (although the only thing I could find on Ontario data was from a few months ago). I would guess it is slightly lower now. But ICU stay among Covid patients is in average 20 days (which is incredibly long when typical length of stay in an ICU is around 3 days).

ICU numbers have been coming down this past week though. And we are seeing less ICU admissions. But in our unit we don't predict getting to a point where we won't have an adult ICU within our pediatric unit until mid June at the earliest. Generally ICU numbers don't reflect case number decreases for about a 3-4 weeks.

But like most I'm over it. I hate the isolation, but going into work and seeing that is even worse.

On a plus side, I get to have my second shot early.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

You still don't understand that youtube links are NOT reliable information. It's like listening to the crazy guy ranting on a street corner.

If you still don't get it by now.....

Such an extremely simplistic way to look at it and probably the most common way to discredit information.

 

[maclean]

Ontario's top health official says daily case counts would have to be 'well below' 1,000 to lift stay-at-home order

Differences in perspective are so interesting. Here we're down to 1500 new cases today and it's like we've won the war (with a pop of 10 million, so even less than ON). But we've been locked down since like October with the exception of a couple weeks before Christmas and at one point we had over 15k new cases a day.

 

[dumbdick]

At first, these lockdowns were an almost unthinkable option of last resort.

Perpetuating them now looks like a "nice to have" measure. Or maybe not, but it's hard to say because the province is shielding their rationale behind vague health professionals' recommendations.

And the nature of the sound bites is changing. It used to be dire warnings about the consequences of not shutting down. Now it's more paternalistic messages advocating for prudence, "we really want to see those cases get below X to be safe".

You can convince me of the need for extending the lockdowns, i just want someone to stand on TV, next to a chart, and explain that this is the reason we have to stay closed. Those charts and rationales exist, they're just being kept behind closed doors.

And if the answer, as I suspect, is that the concern isn't the direct health impact of the virus so much as it is over-running the hospital capacity because of the "long tail" cases that stay in ICU for extended periods, then I need someone to answer these questions:

What have people been doing for the past 15 months and why didn't we expand capacity enough for this? Where are the big covid field hospitals we built?

Why can't our health system scale when needed to have 1000 ICU patients at one time, with over a year to plan for it and when money is no object? What happens if this province ever has to go to war or if we have a major natural disaster?

I think those are all good question that I hope someone answers soon.

 

[JD1]

33% of Americans have had covid? That doesn’t sound right.

It's not

According to worldometers data, it's roughly 10%

 

[dumbdick]

Have you looked at what is being discussed in the clip. To verify if what is being said is accurate? The way I look at it is an opinion on a newsworthy story. On the surface I have no idea if what is being said is true so the onus is on me to look into it. Its no different if CNN or CBC do the same. Important facts could be left out that help explain the situation. I would like to think there are some independent people who are passionate about gaining a better understanding.


In this clip they are speaking about Nicholas Wade, a British author and journalist. He served as the staff writer for the Science Times section of The New York Times from 1982 to 2012.

Here is the article they are speaking of:

The origin of COVID: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box at Wuhan? - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

It is up to you whether or not to take it further or classify it as some guy on a street corner.

I still don't get why people don't actually listen to what is being said objectively and try to learn more about it. The simplicity of it is that people really don't care except for telling you that you can't be right . that's easy.

If I post a clip someone always argues about the messenger but never actually critics the message I'm not trying to preach but expose an opinion that should be worthy of debate.

I posted a clip about the virus possibly being released from a lab a year ago but because it wasn't a mainstream story it couldn't have been even close to the truth. Instead people are shown wet markets that have been around for thousands of years and people eating bat soup as a way to fill in the blanks because the public demands answers.(they don't even have to be right) They log that in their subconscious and never need to update their opinion, like with most media stories.

There is sensationalism everywhere but in it there is a story that is waiting to be understood.

Man that video clip is some Tucker Carlson level rubbish.

There are so many legitimate sources, no need to spend time wading into this trash. Could covid have escaped from a lab? Sure. And you're exactly one google search away from dozens of legitimate sources exploring the issue in depth. Do yourself a favor and swing down those rabbit holes instead.

I have no problem keeping an open mind, but choosing to start and end your quest for knowledge in this sewer is how you get the trump supporters in the states. Selectively turning off their critical filtering of information so they can ingest only those facts and opinions that align with what they want to believe. Regardless of how questionable that source of information.

These sources will ignore overwhelming concensus and dig up the one quack or bad study that aligns with what their audience wants to cling onto. That's why climate change deniers believe there is overwhelming evidence against anthropologic climate change. It's the only evidence they've (disingenuously) allowed themselves to ingest.

They think they get to have an opinion on objective reality.

 

[SPF6ty9]

Man that video clip is some Tucker Carlson level rubbish.

There are so many legitimate sources, no need to spend time wading into this trash. Could covid have escaped from a lab? Sure. And you're exactly one google search away from dozens of legitimate sources exploring the issue in depth. Do yourself a favor and swing down those rabbit holes instead.

I have no problem keeping an open mind, but choosing to start and end your quest for knowledge in this sewer is how you get the trump supporters in the states. Selectively turning off their critical filtering of information so they can ingest only those facts and opinions that align with what they want to believe. Regardless of how questionable that source of information.

These sources will ignore overwhelming concensus and dig up the one quack or bad study that aligns with what their audience wants to cling onto. That's why climate change deniers believe there is overwhelming evidence against anthropologic climate change. It's the only evidence they've (disingenuously) allowed themselves to ingest.

They think they get to have an opinion on objective reality.

I actually read this article, granted some of the science is beyond me, but some of the points seem pretty valid and online there's accredited people debating the merit of it.

We'll likely never know for sure where covid came from with CCP keeping the info under lock and key and they're far from being a party I trust to do an honest evaluation.

Often people may look too hard for evidence to prove their point and in doing so may push some low quality "sources", but that doesn't mean everything they post is wrong. Is it not kind of ironic you bash 3 different groups (Tucker Carlson, Trump supporters, climate change deniers...well at least that last one I agree with) in your post, then preach an open mind and objectivity? Frankly I wish we could get away from judging opinions based on the person preaching them but rather on their individual merit.

I don't really care about the video, I'm just addressing the article, which although a little one sided was interesting.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

Often people may look too hard for evidence to prove their point and in doing so may push some low quality "sources", but that doesn't mean everything they post is wrong. Is it not kind of ironic you bash 3 different groups (Tucker Carlson, Trump supporters, climate change deniers...well at least that last one I agree with) in your post, then preach an open mind and objectivity? Frankly I wish we could get away from judging opinions based on the person preaching them but rather on their individual merit.

Agreed

 

[Here I Pageau Again]

At first, these lockdowns were an almost unthinkable option of last resort.

Perpetuating them now looks like a "nice to have" measure. Or maybe not, but it's hard to say because the province is shielding their rationale behind vague health professionals' recommendations.

And the nature of the sound bites is changing. It used to be dire warnings about the consequences of not shutting down. Now it's more paternalistic messages advocating for prudence, "we really want to see those cases get below X to be safe".

You can convince me of the need for extending the lockdowns, i just want someone to stand on TV, next to a chart, and explain that this is the reason we have to stay closed. Those charts and rationales exist, they're just being kept behind closed doors.

And if the answer, as I suspect, is that the concern isn't the direct health impact of the virus so much as it is over-running the hospital capacity because of the "long tail" cases that stay in ICU for extended periods, then I need someone to answer these questions:

What have people been doing for the past 15 months and why didn't we expand capacity enough for this? Where are the big covid field hospitals we built?

Why can't our health system scale when needed to have 1000 ICU patients at one time, with over a year to plan for it and when money is no object? What happens if this province ever has to go to war or if we have a major natural disaster?

I think those are all good question that I hope someone answers soon.

I would gather a large part of the inability to expand is due to lack of workers. There are field hospitals built, we can't staff them. Currently we are using staff from places like the operating room to staff these places (and opening adult ICU spots within pediatric units). And I'm curious to know how many ICU nurses have taken leaves, quit/retired or decreased hours due to what they've seen this past year.

There was a lot of willingness at the beginning to help, but the way things have gone last year, I don't blame anyone for choosing to give out vaccines over working under trained in an ICU.

 

[milkbag]

Just give us outdoor activities ffs there is absolutely no way that me and 3 friends golfing (we walk the course) or camping is worse than cramming into the tulip festival, farmers market or Walmart. I don't think I can take this much longer and my mental health issues are mild compared to most.

I can't believe it's gotten to a point where I'm begging the government to let me play outside. What a f***ed up world.

 

[dumbdick]

I actually read this article, granted some of the science is beyond me, but some of the points seem pretty valid and online there's accredited people debating the merit of it.

We'll likely never know for sure where covid came from with CCP keeping the info under lock and key and they're far from being a party I trust to do an honest evaluation.

Often people may look too hard for evidence to prove their point and in doing so may push some low quality "sources", but that doesn't mean everything they post is wrong. Is it not kind of ironic you bash 3 different groups (Tucker Carlson, Trump supporters, climate change deniers...well at least that last one I agree with) in your post, then preach an open mind and objectivity? Frankly I wish we could get away from judging opinions based on the person preaching them but rather on their individual merit.

I don't really care about the video, I'm just addressing the article, which although a little one sided was interesting.

No it's not ironic to bash these people while promoting an open mind. Some "opinions" are so objectively false and disingenuous that it's dangerous to legitimize them by placing them into the space for consideration.

That video is pointing to a single source of evidence as fact, but fails to point out that the consensus opinion is that it's unlikely but not impossible that the virus originated in a lab.

It actively casts shade on the "mainstream media" to coerce viewers to ignore other sources of information. Just like trump did with the "fake news" CNN and the "failing" New York Times. That's a deliberated propaghanda tactic used in dictatorships.

These sources are the antithesis of open critical discussion and I think it's completely justified to call them out for the harm they cause.

And while you're suggesting the study has some merit, I'd suggest that I can find you a study with some merit that fails to find a link between smoking and lung cancer. And if my tobacco funded news program points out that study to viewers who like their smokes, while suggesting a more nefarious cover-up by the research community, they may be swayed by that evidence. But I've been a dishonest broker by steering people to a small sliver of evidence, while purposefully ignoring the mountain of evidence to the contrary.

If you want to objectively analyze a bunch of information from various sources to come to a conclusion, great. But most people don't put in that effort. And if your process for identifying information starts and ends with watching Tucker Carlson, then any argument that all evidence should be considered doesn't hold water.

But that's how it is for most people that watch this stuff. They seek out this kind of "evidence" that conforms with their opinions, and use that evidence to reinforce and legitimize their original opinion. They buy into grand conspiracies that allow them to disregard evidence that doesn't fit the mold. They seek out others with the same opinions and reinforce one another. Then they move on to the next hack video and repeat.

They're shaping reality the way they want it. It's a very dangerous trend.