Confirmed with Link: Ethan Bear re-signed, $2.2M, 1yr

Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
48,388
98,064
OK, I'll start with some playoff stats at even strength and I'll send you a link that you should play with. THe pair that gave up the most goals against at even strength was Skjei and Pesce. They gave up 10 at even strength. Slavin and DeAngelo gave up 7. Cole and Smith gave up 3. On the 4 on 5 pk Skjei and Pesce led the team in goals allowed with 7 and were one shy of leading the entire playoffs just behind Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci who gave up 8 as a pair.
You are completely ignoring TOI and quality of competition. Raw numbers for a 14 game sample size where you ignore those factors are meaningless. Cole and Smith played only 127 minutes at ES in these games against the weakest competition vs. 236 and 205 for Pesce/Skjei and Slavin/TDA. They SHOULD be giving up the least number of goals.

Cole and Slavin gave up 3 as a pairing. Interesting stat of the day was that in the 14 games Cole and Slavin were used as a pairing they allowed 0 goals against. Anyway play with this site you will find the truth here. Defensive Pairs - Natural Stat Trick

In only 19 minutes of playing time. The definition of statistically insignificant sample size.
 
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Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
48,388
98,064
You're also ignoring that Cole and Smith took more minor penalties/60 minutes of play than any other defenseman, so they were constantly putting the team on the PK at a higher rate than any other defenseman.

Cole: 4.53 PIM / 60 min of 5v5 play
Smith: 3.57
TDA: 2.64
Pesce: 1.84
Skjei: 1.59
Bear: 1.46
Slavin: 0.35

So they faced weaker competition, in more favorable situations, and still put the team on the PK at a much higher rate than any other player.
 

voyageur

Hockey fanatic
Jul 10, 2011
9,467
8,157
I wonder if this is a sign and trade, Carolina is pretty set at RD. I see Seattle as a good trading partner, with a lot of forward investment but lacking defensive depth. Takes Bear back to the place he started from. What are the Canes going to do for Cap space to sign Necas? Is Gardiner going to stay on LTIR?
 

larueskee

Player/Member USA Hockey or affilates 1972-2006
Mar 15, 2017
1,356
1,765
Seattle, WA
You are completely ignoring TOI and quality of competition. Raw numbers for a 14 game sample size where you ignore those factors are meaningless. Cole and Smith played only 127 minutes at ES in these games against the weakest competition vs. 236 and 205 for Pesce/Skjei and Slavin/TDA. They SHOULD be giving up the least number of goals.



In only 19 minutes of playing time. The definition of statistically insignificant sample size.
I used to have access to a better site where I could pull up the TOI information you are seeking. However the site failed due to the few people that actually paid much attention to it. However you can due the math on your own by using the total time on ice for a given player ( sorry no pairs ) and performing a goals on ice per minute for any player. I use to call mine averages points per minute, plus per minute, etc. I am sure if you did that you would find that the third pair had a much lower GA per minute than the second pair and most likely beats the first pair. You might have to comb through multiple resources to perform but the math does not lie. As far as folks in the penalty box that just reinforces the statements I am making. Along with giving up the fewest goals in the league the Canes gave up the fewest powerplay goals if I remember correctly. So if you are referring to Cole or Smith taking penalties that would indicate that since Smith wasn't a pk specialist that the Canes had trouble when Cole was in the box and unavailable for the pk. Lets just see how many goals the team gives up this coming year. The number to beat is 202.
 

CanesUltimate11

Registered User
Nov 24, 2008
1,963
5,645
Northern Virginia
I used to have access to a better site where I could pull up the TOI information you are seeking. However the site failed due to the few people that actually paid much attention to it. However you can due the math on your own by using the total time on ice for a given player ( sorry no pairs ) and performing a goals on ice per minute for any player. I use to call mine averages points per minute, plus per minute, etc. I am sure if you did that you would find that the third pair had a much lower GA per minute than the second pair and most likely beats the first pair. You might have to comb through multiple resources to perform but the math does not lie. As far as folks in the penalty box that just reinforces the statements I am making. Along with giving up the fewest goals in the league the Canes gave up the fewest powerplay goals if I remember correctly. So if you are referring to Cole or Smith taking penalties that would indicate that since Smith wasn't a pk specialist that the Canes had trouble when Cole was in the box and unavailable for the pk. Lets just see how many goals the team gives up this coming year. The number to beat is 202.
Given their favorable matchups and zone deployment they should have a lower GA then the second or first pair.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
48,388
98,064
I used to have access to a better site where I could pull up the TOI information you are seeking. However the site failed due to the few people that actually paid much attention to it. However you can due the math on your own by using the total time on ice for a given player ( sorry no pairs ) and performing a goals on ice per minute for any player. I use to call mine averages points per minute, plus per minute, etc. I am sure if you did that you would find that the third pair had a much lower GA per minute than the second pair and most likely beats the first pair.
I understand the numbers, but what I'm really struggling with understanding is why you are having a hard time grasping the usage and quality of competition, which is why the numbers are what they are. Or are you purposely ignoring this because it negates your point?

For the 3rd time. Cole/Smith played against players that don't score much, so of course they'll give up fewer goals. That was the case with Jake Bean last year also.

For instance, Jake Bean and Hakanpaa last season had a Goals Against / 60 min. of only 0.66. Slavin/Hamilton had 2.02. Do you really think that Bean and Hakanpaa were superior defensively to Slavin/Hamilton? Do you really think that if Bean and Hakanpaa would have put up similar numbers if they faced the same level of competition that Slavin/Hamilton or Pesce/Skjei did. The numbers were lower because they were sheltered, plain and simple.

Look at who these players faced in my post above. Cole faced a bunch of 3rd and 4th liners with little offensive talent and with less D-zone starts. Pesce faced Ovi, Crosby, Guentzel, Kuznetsov, Kreider, Zibanejad, etc.

Facing Ovi, Kreider, Crosby, Guentzel, etc.. is going to result in more goals than facing 3rd/4th liners.

You might have to comb through multiple resources to perform but the math does not lie.
Numbers don't lie, but using only specific numbers without context (ie..usage and quality of competition) is a poor way to draw a conclusion. That's exactly what you are doing.

As far as folks in the penalty box that just reinforces the statements I am making. Along with giving up the fewest goals in the league the Canes gave up the fewest powerplay goals if I remember correctly. So if you are referring to Cole or Smith taking penalties that would indicate that since Smith wasn't a pk specialist that the Canes had trouble when Cole was in the box and unavailable for the pk.
I'm sorry, but your statement isn't reinforced by this, the PK is a totally different game plan than even strength and the Canes already had a good PK prior to these guys joining. Also, it wasn't very good in the playoffs. And Cole played with Slavin on the PK, the team's best defender.

Lets just see how many goals the team gives up this coming year. The number to beat is 202.

Yes, Admittedly, that will be a difficult number to beat, but the team is different than they were last season.
1) Trocheck, who took a lot of key draws is gone. Nino, who was a key cog on the team's shutdown line is gone. Lorentz is gone. Those 3 guys were 3 of the top 5 forwards on the team in terms of lowest GA/60. The team lost 3 of the top 5 forwards in terms of 5v5 GA/60. Trocheck also took a lot of tough draws from the RH side in key situations, which we no longer have.

2) The defense will have 3 new faces (TDA, Cole, Smith gone).

3) Frederick Andersen had a career year with a SV% well above his career average. I'm not sure we can count on that again, but we'll see.

With all those changes, 202 will be tough to meet or beat.

I agree with you on one point. Can "whoever" the Canes have on the 3rd pair handle the role at least as effectively as this year's 3rd pairing players did. That's an appropriate question/concern. Where I disagree with you wholeheartedly, is how much impact that 3rd pairing had on Carolina's success. They got easy assignments and low minutes.

Anyhow, I'll stop now as it doesn't seem to be making a difference.
 
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Chrispy

Salakuljettaja's Blues
Feb 25, 2009
8,327
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Cary, NC
You're also ignoring that Cole and Smith took more minor penalties/60 minutes of play than any other defenseman, so they were constantly putting the team on the PK at a higher rate than any other defenseman.

Cole: 4.53 PIM / 60 min of 5v5 play
Smith: 3.57
TDA: 2.64
Pesce: 1.84
Skjei: 1.59
Bear: 1.46
Slavin: 0.35

So they faced weaker competition, in more favorable situations, and still put the team on the PK at a much higher rate than any other player.
Cole and Smith can't be scored against if they are in the penalty box.

feel-me-think-about-it.gif
 

Nikishin Go Boom

Russian Bulldozer Consultent
Jul 31, 2017
22,060
51,637
a deep defense is important for the regular season. a deep top 4 is important for the playoffs.

With the value of RHD being so high, if we can get him to gain value throughout the season he could be a main piece in a trade for a forward that will be an upcoming RFA that maybe a team cant afford anyways.

Same with Coghlan / Chatfield. Chatfield being a cheap contract again next season will have a higher value than normal come the deadline. Coghlan we got for free so anything we flip him for at the deadline or next off-season is a plus. OF course we can keep any combo of the above too.
 
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tarheelhockey

Offside Review Specialist
Feb 12, 2010
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As far as folks in the penalty box that just reinforces the statements I am making. Along with giving up the fewest goals in the league the Canes gave up the fewest powerplay goals if I remember correctly. So if you are referring to Cole or Smith taking penalties that would indicate that since Smith wasn't a pk specialist that the Canes had trouble when Cole was in the box and unavailable for the pk.

I’m not sure you’re making the point you think you’re making here.

If Cole was here to be a PK specialist, then it was a problem for him to be the team leader in taking penalties.
 

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