Confirmed with Link: Eriksson-Ek signs for 8 years ($5.25m AAV)

[2Pair]

Be pretty cold blooded to sign the kid for 8 years just to ship him to Buffalo

 

[Legegendsofthenorth]

Be pretty cold blooded to sign the kid for 8 years just to ship him to Buffalo

That would be crazy

 

[Dakota Sioux]

No bargain... team didn't get a discount for that term... borderline deal. Don't love it, don't exactly hate it.

I’m with you. I just not a big fan of contracts over 5 years unless you are a super star

 

[Wild11MN]

What kind of numbers does Ek have to put up to make that happen though?

Yeah, fair point. Is he capable of a 25/30/55 year? With his defense that would be a steal I think, with a rising cap. I'm still not sure that he's capable of it.

 

[Spurgeon]

He was 2nd on the team (for forwards) in ATOI & consistently shut down other teams top lines. I don’t really think he needs to be in an offensive role for this contract to pan out. What that GREEF line brings is crucial to exposing matchups for an offensive line to take advantage of. Especially when we’re going to have a lot of rookies and offensive-inclined players that have riskier play styles.

People want Danault at $5.5M+ but balk at this contract, which really doesn’t make sense to me. Ek is better, younger, and has even more room to improve IMO. This contract could be an absolute steal in a few years & has very limited downside risk to it.

 

[123TripleDoge]

Love the deal

 

[2Pair]

Yeah, fair point. Is he capable of a 25/30/55 year? With his defense that would be a steal I think, with a rising cap. I'm still not sure that he's capable of it.

If Ek puts up 25 and 30, nobody will be complaining about his contract, but that's not a steal at $5.25M. That's closer to the going rate, especially if he's still getting 1st line icetime.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Expecting him to be more than a 40-45 point center next to Greenway/Foligno is asking a lot. Great grinders and I love them both, but offense isn't their specialty. Going through Eriksson Ek's points, Kaprizov and Fiala are sprinkled in there... I wouldn't count out Ek's ability to work with them.

 

[thestonedkoala]

I got to wonder how many more points Ek would get playing with more skilled players.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Love the player but IMO this is another bad contract by Guerin. I may be too harsh on some of the deal, but I’ve always subscribed to the idea that if you manage the cap well you’ll have a good team no matter how it’s constructed

 

[Bazeek]

Best case scenario for me, in terms of usage/minutes/role, is Ryan O'Reilly. I think Ek can match his even-strength points, but I have no idea if he's got the powerplay production in him. And if he's going to jump into the 55+ point range it's going to have to come from powerplay production. I'm half curious to see him with Boldy and Fiala but I don't think you're going to squeeze more than 40 5v5 points out of him that way, and I think he can probably hit that already between Greenway and Foligno.

The powerplay is probably more the missing ingredient here than his regular linemates. And if we get 8 years of Ryan O'Reilly out of Ek I'll probably start a Guerin-centric religious organization.

 

[Jesus comma Brodin]

Best case scenario for me, in terms of usage/minutes/role, is Ryan O'Reilly. I think Ek can match his even-strength points, but I have no idea if he's got the powerplay production in him. And if he's going to jump into the 55+ point range it's going to have to come from powerplay production. I'm half curious to see him with Boldy and Fiala but I don't think you're going to squeeze more than 40 5v5 points out of him that way, and I think he can probably hit that already between Greenway and Foligno.

The powerplay is probably more the missing ingredient here than his regular linemates. And if we get 8 years of Ryan O'Reilly out of Ek I'll probably start a Guerin-centric religious organization.

If he’s Ryan O’Reilly-like at any point in his career I’ll be shocked. O’Reilly hit 55 points in his 3rd season, and has kept or exceeded that pace ever since with just shy of a 3rd of his points coming from the PP. Ek just finished his 4th full season, and has never come close to that pace, even after a season where his shooting percentage was more than double his career average.

This is why an 8 year deal with money based on 50+ point production is ridiculous to me. Give him a year long deal to show me this seasons pace wasn’t a fluke and then lock him down to the term. This just makes zero sense on so many levels.

 

[2Pair]

Another effect of this deal-
Kaprizov now has every right to ask/expect $10M or more on an 8 year deal
Fiala now has every right to ask/expect $8.5M or more on an 8 year deal

 

[Bazeek]

If he’s Ryan O’Reilly-like at any point in his career I’ll be shocked. O’Reilly hit 55 points in his 3rd season, and has kept or exceeded that pace ever since with just shy of a 3rd of his points coming from the PP. Ek just finished his 4th full season, and has never come close to that pace, even after just shooting over double his career average shooting %.

This is why an 8 year deal with money based on 50+ point production is ridiculous to me. Give him a year long deal to show me this seasons pace wasn’t a fluke and then lock him down to the term. This just makes zero sense on so many levels.

I will also be shocked, but thus far Ek hasn't really been used much on the powerplay. He's had a little PP2 time, but our second unit has been kind of a mystery in terms of personnel choices. If he's got any untapped offensive potential I think that's where it'll have to come from.

But the O'Reilly comparison is more about his role and usage than the style of player or even the results. O'Reilly's more creative and better with the puck than Ek is and I don't see Ek really developing much further in that respect. I don't think he'll ever catch up to O'Reilly's powerplay production, but maybe he'll get halfway there. That'd still make him a great all-situations center and make this contract easier to swallow.

The point about paying for what you hope a guy is rather than what he's been so far is fair, though. I'm hoping that management has dug into his play and underlying numbers enough to see something that makes this bet worthwhile. Which is to say, I hope they've got something more substantial to back this up than dark blue RAPM charts.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Here are some scouting reports on Eriksson-Ek:

Draft Profile: Joel Eriksson Ek : The Draft Analyst

He has exceptional scoring touch for a kid whose numbers reflect his relegation to fourth line center duty after a mid-season promotion to Sweden’s senior circuit. Eriksson has very quick hands and can be an excellent finisher in scoring areas. While he has the reputation of a defensive center, Eriksson has certainly made the most of his role when its expanded.

#32 - JOEL ERIKSSON-EK, LW - The Hockey Prospector

Eriksson-Ek reminds me of Michal Frolik and I think there’s a good chance that he ends up with the same kind of career path. A lot was expected of Frolik as a top 10 pick in 2006 and he had to adjust his game but now is widely considered one of the best 3rd line forwards in the NHL. I could really see Eriksson-Ek become that kind of player. I’m not certain his offense translates over to become a top-6 guy but I think he’s got all it takes to adapt his role and become an important player in the top-9.

Frolik was also a left winger and when he signed back in 2015, he was making 4.3 million (or 5.89 % of the cap), so equivalency.

2015 NHL Draft Profile #20: Joel Eriksson-Ek (lastwordonsports.com)

While he only has 4 goals and 6 points in 34 games at the SHL level, he has dominated with Farjestad’s J20 team with 32 points in 25 games. Eriksson-Ek is now playing in this year’s IIHF U18 World Championships and has already put up 4 goals and 5 points in just 3 games for Sweden. He also put up 3 goals and 4 points in last summer’s Ivan Hlinka.

The biggest issue here is that Fenton straddled Minnesota with some unfavorable contracts (Zuccarello, Rask) and the flat cap impacted more contracts (Spurgeon, Brodin) and some big contracts ended up needing to be paid sooner than later.

I also believe that Minnesota hasn't done any favors offensively with Eriksson-Ek as he's had some pretty low minutes, until last season when they started giving him more favorable times.

Pairing him with guys like Boldy and Fiala, I know you'll see a rise in his points and a 20/30 season shouldn't be out of the question in his prime. The question is, will Evason put him into a position to succeed? Furthermore, why is it whenever Minnesota actually gets a talented center they are allergic to them developing their offensive game?

Erik Haula is another one that did jack here and then exploded in Vegas. Injuries derailed his career, but he did put up another 15 goals this season and 19 assists.

Kunin was injured this year as well, but was on pace for 22 goals this season.

It's like Minnesota is allergic to developing offensive talent...hopefully Kaprizov, Fiala and Ek change that.

 

[Jesus comma Brodin]

I also believe that Minnesota hasn't done any favors offensively with Eriksson-Ek as he's had some pretty low minutes, until last season when they started giving him more favorable times.

Pairing him with guys like Boldy and Fiala, I know you'll see a rise in his points and a 20/30 season shouldn't be out of the question in his prime. The question is, will Evason put him into a position to succeed? Furthermore, why is it whenever Minnesota actually gets a talented center they are allergic to them developing their offensive game?

Erik Haula is another one that did jack here and then exploded in Vegas. Injuries derailed his career, but he did put up another 15 goals this season and 19 assists.

Kunin was injured this year as well, but was on pace for 22 goals this season.

It's like Minnesota is allergic to developing offensive talent...hopefully Kaprizov, Fiala and Ek change that.

You don’t f***ing know this.

The reason his line was good was because Foligno and Greenway are solid on the forecheck. Ek doesn’t carry possession, he’s a dump & chase player and without grinding wingers, that approach won’t work when he has little to no skill to possess the puck.

 

[P10p]

You don’t f***ing know this.

The reason his line was good was because Foligno and Greenway are solid on the forecheck. Ek doesn’t carry possession, he’s a dump & chase player and without grinding wingers, that approach won’t work when he has little to no skill to possess the puck.

"You don’t f***ing know this."

 

[thestonedkoala]

You don’t f***ing know this.

The reason his line was good was because Foligno and Greenway are solid on the forecheck. Ek doesn’t carry possession, he’s a dump & chase player and without grinding wingers, that approach won’t work when he has little to no skill to possess the puck.

And you don't know what he's capable of either, because they haven't moved him out of a defensive role. I'm really interested if this contract signals a change where they are going to use Boldy instead of Greenway on his line (Boldy - Eriksson-Ek - Foligno) and maybe move Greenway as from my understanding is that they are still not happy with Greenway and his inconsistencies.

The biggest issue is that we're spending almost as much for our top 4 pairing as our entire offense and that defense hasn't done jack in the postseason.

 

[Jesus comma Brodin]

And you don't know what he's capable of either, because they haven't moved him out of a defensive role. I'm really interested if this contract signals a change where they are going to use Boldy instead of Greenway on his line (Boldy - Eriksson-Ek - Foligno) and maybe move Greenway as from my understanding is that they are still not happy with Greenway and his inconsistencies.

The biggest issue is that we're spending almost as much for our top 4 pairing as our entire offense and that defense hasn't done jack in the postseason.

I know we don’t know how he will be in that role, that is my entire issue with this contract. Why did we commit $5M+ at 8 years for something that’s a coin flip and we don’t know can elevate.

One year bridge at $4Mish was the contract. The contract extension agreed to yesterday makes ZERO sense. He’s coming off an anomaly shooting percentage season, hasn’t seen PP time for whatever reason yet we agreed to paying him for the next nearly decade at a price where PP production is a requirement. This whole thing is based on assumptions and one improving year offensively. He needed to prove that last season wasn’t a fluke and even then, he was on a 40 point pace for gods sake.

 

[Bazeek]

And you don't know what he's capable of either, because they haven't moved him out of a defensive role. I'm really interested if this contract signals a change where they are going to use Boldy instead of Greenway on his line (Boldy - Eriksson-Ek - Foligno) and maybe move Greenway as from my understanding is that they are still not happy with Greenway and his inconsistencies.

The biggest issue is that we're spending almost as much for our top 4 pairing as our entire offense and that defense hasn't done jack in the postseason.

Different usage and linemates are not going to grant Eriksson-Ek a different set of strengths and weaknesses. He will still have a skillset that suits him to dump-and-chase hockey even if he's playing with the most skilled wingers on the team. We can give it a shot and hope that they catch lightning in a bottle, but it's not going to make him handle the puck better or become more creative offensively.

 

[Jesus comma Brodin]

"You don’t f***ing know this."

Correct.

Which is why we find out before giving him max term at $5.25M per.

 

[P10p]

Correct.

Which is why we find out before giving him max term at $5.25M per.

Which is why you don't shit on other posters opinions and state yours as though it is an absolute truth...

 

[Minnewildsota]

Which is why you don't shit on other posters opinions and state yours as though it is an absolute truth...

This.

Well, if you pay to find out you could be shooting yourself in the foot because the ask will almost certainly be higher.

 

[Digitalbooya]

You don’t f***ing know this.

The reason his line was good was because Foligno and Greenway are solid on the forecheck. Ek doesn’t carry possession, he’s a dump & chase player and without grinding wingers, that approach won’t work when he has little to no skill to possess the puck.

It’s very interesting to hear throughout the year from various posters that Kap and Fiala can’t or shouldn’t play together because they both excel with the puck on their stick. With Boldy and Fiala on his line I wouldn’t exactly be worried about his ability to walk into the zone with the puck. Those two guys are perfectly capable of doing that. Ek could provide boards and net front presence in the zone while letting those two do their thing. And do people ever perhaps think that maybe Ek is a dump and chase player because he played with guys like Greenway and Foligno? Show me all the times Ek was given an opportunity to play with offensive guys.

 

[Bazeek]

This.

Well, if you pay to find out you could be shooting yourself in the foot because the ask will almost certainly be higher.

I don't follow on the last point. Do you mean that the ask from Ek's agent would go up if negotiations went on longer than a few days?