Rumor: Erik Karlsson Mega Thread - All rumors/speculation/proposals go here

[JOKER 192]

That’s where you are going off the track. I’m not saying those kinds of players aren’t going to be traded but if that’s what you want for Karlsson then it’s not good enough and a level above those players might already be a core part of the team. Who would trade let’s say Nylander besides a team like Toronto who have Matthews, Tavares, Kadri? List any teams in the league that can afford to do that besides Toronto, Pittsburgh and Tampa for a player on a 1 year rental? We all know how much he wants to play for Tampa and he might not sign with the team that trades for them, would you as a gm trade someone like Nylader who might sign 8 years contract for a 1 year EK rental?

It’s a no brainer.

Clearly a no brainer, your not hearing me.

If I'm Ottawa I could care less who he want's to play for.

Nor could care less about a return like Nylander and the likes . As good as he is, Ottawa is going to need a lot more than Willy to rescue them.

If Tatar , a player that played a whole 8 games in the PO's for Vegas in their PO run, landed a 1st , a 2nd and a 3rd just imagine what Karlsson get's you at TDL. Karlsson would put any team positioned for a cup run over the top. Any team like Tampa for 1 or the Leafs or the Preds or the Jets, the Bruins , I could go on ... etc. Karlsson could get you double what Tatar got.

Stop with your roster players, that's not what Ottawa needs, that's the deal that get's done now. But if they wait, they'll get a shitload of futres that will serve them way better going forward.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

I'm not one to usually care a lot about in-division or in-conference stuff...but there's absolutely no reason for Ottawa to sell low on Karlsson to either Tampa or Toronto. If both are in the Karlsson derby, I would have no problem playing one against the other if I was Dorion. And if neither steps-up...then I'd gladly ship Karlsson to Dallas or Vegas, even if they offer a bit less.

many believe thats what he is doing to tb

 

[Halla]

11 mill to Tavares...
11 mill to Matthews...
11 mill to karlsson
and get off easy just 9 to marner

gets out calculator... it struggles with these ungodly numbers... but we get our answer

no... no its not possible... no

marner isnt get 9 are you nuts?

pasta got 6.67 coming off 34g/70pts. in what world does marners 22g/69pts get him 9?

 

[Halla]

Whether or not the number are accurate if you use Cap Geek's post tax earnings calculator it says Tampa can offer even less than 9.9mil they can go as low as 8.5mil and still beat an 11mil offer from Toronto.

except in toronto the sponsorship opportunities blows away what one could make in tampa....so there is that

 

[NiL8r87]

Clearly a no brainer, your not hearing me.

If I'm Ottawa I could care less who he want's to play for.

Nor could care less about a return like Nylander and the likes . As good as he is, Ottawa is going to need a lot more than Willy to rescue them.

If Tatar , a player that played a whole 8 games in the PO's for Vegas in their PO run, landed a 1st , a 2nd and a 3rd just imagine what Karlsson get's you at TDL. Karlsson would put any team positioned for a cup run over the top. Any team like Tampa for 1 or the Leafs or the Preds or the Jets, the Bruins , I could go on ... etc. Karlsson could get you double what Tatar got.

Stop with your roster players, that's not what Ottawa needs, that's the deal that get's done now. But if they wait, they'll get a ****load of futres that will serve them way better going forward.

What do you think the odds are that picks from a contending team turn out as good as William Nylander? This isn’t even about Nylander specifically, but prefering futures to young, controllable players bordering on stardom is absurd. Like you wouldn’t take Sergachev or Point?

 

[JOKER 192]

many believe thats what he is doing to tb

Many people, have many different gods , they can't all be right.

 

[Halla]

we got a 24 million first line
a bargain 22 mill second line
a 6.5 mill third line
5 mill to fill out the other 5 forwards

lets say just 28 mill for the defense without any raise for gardiner

add in around 6 or the goaltending

I guess if the cap was 91 million wed be fine​

marner isnt getting 9. give him 7. nylander is gone in the deal, take away another 7.
gardiner isnt getting resigned, hainsey likely isnt either. add another 7

75 mil and a few spots to fill

 

[boredmale]

I just honestly can't believe how close a deal has been this entire week with 3 different teams and now no one appears close at all. Crazy how fast things change. San Jose is next I bet

Probably a case of a over zealous media reporting any little tidbit they hear. I don't doubt that teams like Dallas and Tampa have talked to Ottawa and Karlsson himself, but the media is blowing it out of proportion

 

[JOKER 192]

What do you think the odds are that picks from a contending team turn out as good as William Nylander? This isn’t even about Nylander specifically, but prefering futures to young, controllable players bordering on stardom is absurd. Like you wouldn’t take Sergachev or Point?

Not straight up. Do you think Nylander or Point preform at the same clip on the Sens, I don't. Those are stacked teams. Ottawa is not.

Ottawa is in the drivers seat. Overpay is more likely coming at TDL than now. If someone wants to overpay now, so be it. But if I'm Ottawa, I'm milking this for everything it's worth.

I owe Karlsson what he owes me , which seems to be nothing.

The team that will pry Karlsson form me is going to pay with their future. A Stanley Cup is a hard thing to win. It takes a good team, good management and a shit load of luck. If I'm going to give you a cup, the price for a cup isn't cheap. It's not Nylander, Point or Sergechev. It's those guys and a whole lot more.

 

[gamer1035]

He won't be, it'll surely be a sign and trade deal

Tell me about these better offers than. Name one.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Sure if he wasn't a rental

Even as an uncertain signing, Karlsson is worth quite a bit more than Nylander.

Nobody is certainly a rental unless they explicitly state that they won’t sign somewhere.

 

[JOKER 192]

Sideshow Mel insisting on getting rid of Ryan will kill his return

He's the one who could f*** this all up for Ottawa, no doubt.

 

[Boxscore]

Here are two interviews from Friday that everyone should listen to when trying to connect the dots. The Mcguire one is from the early morning and MacLean's a little later in the day. Both mention Karlsson's desire to play in Tampa and Tampa offering the best deal:

1. Pierre Mcguire on TSN1200

2. Doug MacLean on SportsNet (starts 3:00 mark really)

 

[Goalie guy]

except in toronto the sponsorship opportunities blows away what one could make in tampa....so there is that

I think you are going to see that pitch stopped here real soon. How they do it I don't know, but any way you cut it that is cap circumvention. Well we will give you x but we can get you y in deals on top of it does not go well with the cap and parity just like no state tax as well.

 

[Halla]

I think you are going to see that pitch stopped here real soon. How they do it I don't know, but any way you cut it that is cap circumvention. Well we will give you x but we can get you y in deals on top of it does not go well with the cap and parity just like no state tax as well.

i dont think there is anyway to stop it. how can the NHL say "no john tavares, you cant do an ad for canadian tire during the offseason!"

not gonna happen

 

[JOKER 192]

Here are two interviews from Friday that everyone should listen to when trying to connect the dots. The Mcguire one is from the early morning and MacLean's a little later in the day. Both mention Karlsson's desire to play in Tampa and Tampa offering the best deal:

1. Pierre Mcguire on TSN1200

2. Doug MacLean on SportsNet (starts 3:00 mark really)

I'm not going to seek them out but I bet there are at least two "Insiders" who would say the opposite.

Pierre told us Alzner was't gonna sign in the east. He's gonna sign west coast, is what he said last year. Montreal is about as east coast as it get's in the NHL.

How many of these guys were criticizing Sakic ................ look how that turned out.

With all due respect, their opinion is no different, nor more valuable, than mine or yours.

 

[Everblades13]

If you got even odds for Karlsson to the Bolts, would you guys take it?

 

[Everblades13]

I'm not going to seek them out but I bet there are at least two "Insiders" who would say the opposite.

Pierre told us Alzner was't gonna sign in the east. He's gonna sign west coast, is what he said last year. Montreal is about as east coast as it get's in the NHL.

How many of these guys were criticizing Sakic ................ look how that turned out.

With all due respect, their opinion is no different, nor more valuable, than mine or yours.

I vehemently disagree with this. With the contacts he has and the people he talks to, I can assure you Pierre's opinion on where a player will go means a hell of a lot more than mine does.

Doesn't make it the end all though, hence your Alzner example.

 

[JOKER 192]

i dont think there is anyway to stop it. how can the NHL say "no john tavares, you cant do an ad for canadian tire during the offseason!"

not gonna happen

Of course not. But Cap ceiling based on Taxes or income from such sources can be a thing.

 

[zar]

How is the state taxes even a debate... the 25% USD to CAD exchange rate knocks the income tax rate for the 11,000,000 down to 24% tax, Then if the player is smart they will invest 25% of the yearly salary into a TFSA or an RRSP for long-term financial stability for future generations of their family.

2,750,000 into a yearly RRSP results in an additional 1,500,000 in tax savings.. Thus further reducing the income tax another 14%.

So if the Leafs were to offer Karlsson 11,000,000/year, by following ^ this style of plan Tampa would be able to offer a comparable 9,900,000/year.

As the one poster already responded, there are maximums that can be contributed to TFSAs and RRSPs in Canada.

Not sure what you mean about the exchange rate knocking the income tax rate? That does not make sense. Net pay is always paid in USD... if your USD net pay is greater then when you convert it to CAD it equates to more CAD.

Net pay is all that matters... and income tax being deducted is a huge factor. What some people don't realize is that all of the player's salary is not taxed solely in the jurisdiction they reside in... most of it is, but not all.

Some cities have city tax, there is a jock tax, escrow payments... most players take home significantly less than you would expect. Much more than most of us, but there are many deductions than expected. Here is an enlightening article: NHL Players’ Salaries Shrink by Millions After Taxes

You can go to Cap Friendly, enter a salary and see the difference in net pay (USD).
I entered a $4m salary... the range was a high net pay of $2.46m (NAS/TBL/VGK/FLO/DAL) to the lowest net pay of $1.890... that's a big difference in take home pay... and there is definitely an advantage.

Sorry, off topic... Karlsson to TML, not impossible but highly, highly unlikely.

 

[JOKER 192]

I vehemently disagree with this. With the contacts he has and the people he talks to, I can assure you Pierre's opinion on where a player will go means a hell of a lot more than mine does.

Doesn't make it the end all though, hence your Alzner example.

Well perhaps your right, but I listen to Mcquire every day on TSN 690, he's wrong as often as he's right and so are many of us.

 

[Boxscore]

I'm not going to seek them out but I bet there are at least two "Insiders" who would say the opposite.

I would ask you to name one insider that goes on record saying "Karlsson is willing to extend with Dallas or Vegas today."

Karlsson is great friends with Hedman, and has been since they were kids. Like MacLean said, "it's no secret that Tampa is where Karlsson wants to be and he has all the control."

Yost was saying as much going back to the trade deadline last year.

 

[Korpse]

What is this crap?

Bettman isn't holding up anything. The Sens and Bolts had a deal then Dorion presented it to Melnyk and he vetoed it unless Tampa took back Ryan's contract (after Dorion and Yzerman worked out a solid hockey trade ).

Come on, gang, let's pay attention.

These three points have been established by credible sources:

1. The ONLY team Karlsson is willing to extend with TODAY is Tampa. Period. That's a known fact at this point.

2. Yzerman is willing to give Ottawa more than any other team because they can extend Karlsson. Dallas, Vegas etc. would be gambling on Karlsson and may only have him for 1 year... so they will NEVER give up the farm for a 1 year risk. That's bonkers.

3. TB/OTT was a deal in place until Melnyk stepped in and ruined it by trying to add Ryan's contract in.

We can speculate, brainstorm, and think of ideas, but let's base them in reality of what we already know.

Putting aside the ridiculousness that is Bettman holding up the trade. At this point that’s 100% speculation. There’s plenty of reports suggesting a deal wasn’t even that close b

 

[zar]

marner isnt get 9 are you nuts?

pasta got 6.67 coming off 34g/70pts. in what world does marners 22g/69pts get him 9?

marner isnt getting 9. give him 7. nylander is gone in the deal, take away another 7.
gardiner isnt getting resigned, hainsey likely isnt either. add another 7

75 mil and a few spots to fill

Unless Marner regresses next year (which I don't see, he's a very good player) or he agrees to sign a bridge... there is no way you are getting him long term for $7m AAV.

Here is a breakdown I posted a few weeks back...

I see many predictions for AAV but no one is mentioning term, which is an important factor. Let's not forget that Patrnak only signed for 6 years. (6.666AAV/75 = 8.9% of the cap). That was after 1 season of 70 points

2018/19 cap is said to be between $78-82M, let's use the midpoint of $80m
2019/20 cap could go up 2.5 - 6%. let's go 3.5%=80 + 3.5% = $83M (the 5 year average Cap increase preceding this season would be 4.5%, so 3.5% is reasonable IMO)

At the same Cap% as Pastrnak = $83M x 8.9% = $7.4m x 6 years, higher if he signs for 8 years (more UFA years)...

If Marner has a 3rd consecutive strong year, say 72-75 points (slight increase from last year's 69 points), one could argue he would be more proven than Pastrnak was when he signed.

At a slightly higher Cap% than Pastnak = $83M x 10% = $8.3m x 6 years, higher if he signs for 8 years (more UFA years)

Now if the NHL announces expansion to Seattle before negotiations come to close, expect an even more aggressive proposal from the players... knowing that the Cap progressions above could be overly conservative.

My guestimates for Marner's next contract would be...
$50m/6=$8.33m AAV
$60m/7=$8.57m AAV
$70m/8=$8.75m AAV

There are factors still in play though... Cap increase this 2018/19 season, pending expansion announcement, and of course, the subsequent Cap increase for the 2019/20 season.

 

[JOKER 192]

I would ask you to name one insider that goes on record saying "Karlsson is willing to extend with Dallas or Vegas today."

Karlsson is great friends with Hedman, and has been since they were kids. Like MacLean said, "it's no secret that Tampa is where Karlsson wants to be and he has all the control."

Yost was saying as much going back to the trade deadline last year.

See this is the part I have a problem with. I really don't see how he has much control. He's under contract to play in OTTAWA this season. It can be a very long season for him.

Can someone explain how he has all the control to me because I really don't see it . It's not because McClean says that it makes it so.