Erie Otters 2018-19 Season Thread
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At Friday nights game in Guelph there were 3 Erie players sitting near us. My grandson (6) went over and asked for their autographs, and also gave them his "Because its fair, I get theirs, they get mine" They could not have been nicer to him. So I would like to thank #8 Carson Edwardson #34 Jack Duff and #41 Kurtis Henry for representing all that is good with the OHL.
Very true. I really haven't met any OHL players that weren't nice. Overall, very good kids. As to the game, the boys played very well and deserved a better fate. The top line really dominated the Rangers. My opinion of Kitchener has changed after seeing them play yesterday. When they beat the Otters earlier in the season I thought they looked very good. Not so much now.
Gut instinct: Derian Hatcher feels like he's got the team to beat this year, but wants to beef up his top 6 and add a top-pairing defensemen to shore up the deal. We send Raddysh and Sambrook for Jamieson Rees, 3 or more 2nds, a handful of other lower rounds picks, and possibly Colton Kammerer, who, if included, would decrease the number of picks.
Sarnia, IMO, makes the most sense with arguably the best 01 who'd be on the table. Gotta think that Sarnia, Soo, Hamilton, Kingston, and Kitchener are best bets to go all in. And given the enormity of a trade like this, it's hard for a rebuilding GM to stomach the trade not centering around a 16 year old first rounder. Rees is far and away the best one out of the teams mentioned above: Hayden Fowler has been buried on the Soo's depth chart and hasn't put up the numbers to warrant that much attention; Connor McMichael isn't doing anything special in Hamilton (although Arthur Kaliyev is, and he would have been a first rounder had there not been reporting concerns, but he's probably untouchable); Cody Morgan has been decent in Kingston, but doesn't have Rees' ceiling; and Grayson Ladd has been a bust thus far in Kitchener.
That leaves Rees. Hope that's what happens - kid is a stud. Don't know if Sarnia has the draft cupboard to make a move of this magnitude, but if they do, it's the best fit from where I'm sitting.
bobber
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I am not sure you are being fair saying Ladd is a bust. Kind of an off the cuff remark when the kid has hardly been used this season and had a shoulder injury. He will probably be a good Dman but as a 16 year old it will take time. Not many are the second coming of Bobby Orr at that age. Kitchener has a lot seconds including three seconds in 2018 but I doubt they do a deal with Erie. Can't remember it happening before.
Ward Cornell
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Last one I can think of was that "gamechanger" Doug Clarkson!...Very similar to the same type of gamechanger brother David had with the Toronto Maple Leafs!
bobber
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.....and the Leafs paid him handsomely for his servicesLast one I can think of was that "gamechanger" Doug Clarkson!...Very similar to the same type of gamechanger brother David had with the Toronto Maple Leafs!
Agree it's too early to tell if he'll be a bust in the long term - I was just saying he's been a bust thus far for purposes of trade value in the very near future. Kid was drafted in the first of Priority Selection for a reason. Just don't think he'll be the centerpiece of a trade between Erie and Kitchener given his performance and usage to date.
Injuries and roster makeup obviously have a big impact on the output of 16 year olds in the OHL, and as a result, their value to compared to their peers. That's why I think Rees is the best bet all things considered.
It's gotta be just a matter of time before Dave Brown makes a big move.
bobber
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Rangers took Ladd as a four year project. Not sure why they did that because it never worked out the last time they had that plan. You are correct kitchin he isn't a 16 year old that will be traded
Generalsupdates
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Kammerer isn't allowed to be traded (only '01 1st round picks can be traded"
Erie needs young forwards not young defenders. Bryne, Martin, Wainman, Duff, Timmermans, Henry all able to be back next season. Kischnick (2001) is already signed and has some high praise. He will be here. And of those 7 I just listed, 6 can/will be back in 2019-2020. On top of that, Erie is big into drafting and developing defenders. They are as good as any team in terms of true 5th round or later picks (not college kids) and being able to develop guys..but especially on defense.
Sambrook (10th)
D Raddysh (5th)
Dermott (9th)
Fergus (8th)
Headrick (14th)
Martin (5th)
honestly I am missing others. Kischnick (6th) and Henry (9th) might be next in line. They seem to be content, and rightfully so, with continuing to draft and develop defenders with later picks. Leaving their top picks to be forwards. And since they traded McShane/Neumann last year - they need to make up for the foward spot, not the defense. Imo if they cant get a 2001 forward for Raddysh, they then will seek the most picks and a 2000 forward before looking at defense. If they cant get that, then a defender and/or more picks is next in line
but like i said before, of course Erie needs picks but I will take 3 high end picks and a top 2001 forward over 7/8 high end picks and a 2000. Picks are great but 2nd/3rd rounders are not guarantees and you can still got those picks by moving Lodnia and Sambrook. The only way you get a 16 year old is by moving Raddysh. So in his trade, a 2001 is far more important than picks. And given Raddysh's talent (im sure if he was in London we would be talking about him as a top 3-5 forward in the league..which he is) and the McShane deal last year... I dont even care if we get 9-10 picks for him..if we dont get a 2001..its a fail
Sambrook (10th)
D Raddysh (5th)
Dermott (9th)
Fergus (8th)
Headrick (14th)
Martin (5th)
honestly I am missing others. Kischnick (6th) and Henry (9th) might be next in line. They seem to be content, and rightfully so, with continuing to draft and develop defenders with later picks. Leaving their top picks to be forwards. And since they traded McShane/Neumann last year - they need to make up for the foward spot, not the defense. Imo if they cant get a 2001 forward for Raddysh, they then will seek the most picks and a 2000 forward before looking at defense. If they cant get that, then a defender and/or more picks is next in line
but like i said before, of course Erie needs picks but I will take 3 high end picks and a top 2001 forward over 7/8 high end picks and a 2000. Picks are great but 2nd/3rd rounders are not guarantees and you can still got those picks by moving Lodnia and Sambrook. The only way you get a 16 year old is by moving Raddysh. So in his trade, a 2001 is far more important than picks. And given Raddysh's talent (im sure if he was in London we would be talking about him as a top 3-5 forward in the league..which he is) and the McShane deal last year... I dont even care if we get 9-10 picks for him..if we dont get a 2001..its a fail
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Generalsupdates
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If you get no picks though then you have nobody to play with that '01 player that you got. Having 0 2nds and 2 3rds over the next 7 drafts is a far more pressing issue than needing an '01 player IMO
this is why i said the lodnia and sambrook trades were just as critical
erie is at least getting 2 of those picks (probably 3) back for Sammy. And next year they can move Lodnia for another 3.
And we arent getting no picks for Raddysh just because we get a 2001, if we do. We would still get 2/3. So there you have it - thats about 8 or 9 picks in total. Not too shabby when you consider 14 high picks over 7 drafts, and we are missing 12. That means you recoup 8/9? Why is that a problem? 8/9 is just fine if there is 2001. Better than 11/12 without a 2001 imo
My point is that a 2001 and 2/3 picks is more valuable than 7/8 picks. You of all people should know this as I am sure you want the McShane deal over the no 2001 that Saginaw got. If erie didnt move McShane last year I would be content with the picks. But sorry..we really have to make up for that and the Neumann move.
Im not overly concerned with the picks. It will work itself out over the next 3 years. But this is your last chance in immediate future to get a 16 year old. Raddysh is the only guy that can. You have to try and cash in on that.
Imo IF IF ..IF they do..
XXXX (2001)
Sproule (2001)
Top 4 pick (2002)
Golod (2000)
Gritz (2000)
and potentially a top forward import pick.. all the sudden Erie would be looking young and damn talented up front next year to go along with Mak, Lodnia, Robinson, Podd. Still far from where we want to be but headed in a quicker direction than 99.9% of outsiders thought was possible with this organization
You do have to (try) for a 2001 player in return for Raddysh; but Erie (needs 2018) picks. I doubt Erie gets both in one trade (unless Kitchener); so, the best option is Raddysh & Headrick to London or SSM; then Sambrook to another team?
If Kitchener, London, OS, & Peterborough don’t buy heavy or worse any sell, the above is a tall order. Taking a reasonable offer before Windsor sells might be a good idea.
If Kitchener, London, OS, & Peterborough don’t buy heavy or worse any sell, the above is a tall order. Taking a reasonable offer before Windsor sells might be a good idea.
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Am I crazy to think that the Petes may trade Robertson to Erie?
Yes I know that Robertson seems to be on his way to being a great player in this league. As an American kid, I'm sure he and his family would not be upset with him moving to Erie.
If Robertson is part of a package moving to Erie, the Petes could expand things, looking at Raddysh and Sambrook (or Headrick if Black goes the other way).
Raddysh would be such a difference maker and, although Sambrook would give the Petes eight 98's, some can be dealt in the off season to recoup future picks
Robertson probably puts Petes in position to get both Raddysh and Sambrook.
Would the Petes not be better off just concentrating on two 19 yr old D?
Would the Petes not be better off just concentrating on two 19 yr old D?
I agree Erie needs picks. But they also need to recoup McShane/Neumann.
They need both lol. And whats harder to get? a 2001. Raddysh is their only avenue for that. And whats more likely a 2001 first rounder becoming a star or a 2nd/3rd rounder becoming a star?
Do I value 2nd and 3rd rounders. Yes. But I also feel like Erie is solid at their middle to late drafting. And I also know that 1st round picks have a better chance at being a regular OHL player and/or a star compared to 2nd/3rd rounders
We need both picks and players. Bur Sambrook should be able to get Erie a 3rd in 2018. .
Dont rule out Lodnia trade either. That could scoop them 2018 picks as well.
I look at drafts on a year by year basis. i am not worried about their 2nd and 3rd round picks in 2021 right now. I am worried about the lack of star player in 2000-2001 age group because they moved McShane tho. As far as 2018, 2019 drafts? Getting 2/3 of those higher picks back is very possible and would be successful as far as im concerned
They need both lol. And whats harder to get? a 2001. Raddysh is their only avenue for that. And whats more likely a 2001 first rounder becoming a star or a 2nd/3rd rounder becoming a star?
Do I value 2nd and 3rd rounders. Yes. But I also feel like Erie is solid at their middle to late drafting. And I also know that 1st round picks have a better chance at being a regular OHL player and/or a star compared to 2nd/3rd rounders
We need both picks and players. Bur Sambrook should be able to get Erie a 3rd in 2018. .
Dont rule out Lodnia trade either. That could scoop them 2018 picks as well.
I look at drafts on a year by year basis. i am not worried about their 2nd and 3rd round picks in 2021 right now. I am worried about the lack of star player in 2000-2001 age group because they moved McShane tho. As far as 2018, 2019 drafts? Getting 2/3 of those higher picks back is very possible and would be successful as far as im concerned
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actually building off of this, someone mentioned to me that Erie doesnt really have crazy success in 2nd/3rd round picks anyways..so I looked
Year - Player(s) that developed into something (total 2nd/3rd rounders in that draft year)
2011 – none (1 pick)
2012 – Kyle Pettit, Hayden Hodgson (4 picks)
2013 – Jesse Saban (2 picks)
2014 – Kyle Maksmovich (3 picks)
2015 – Brett Neumann (1 picks)
Essentially 5 players developed into something with 11 picks used. Less than 50% success rate. Hodgson/Neumann/Saban only held value in Erie as trade chips. Maksmovich the most successful. But even he isnt a "star"
I will hedge my bets with losing 3 or 4 of these picks to maybe gain an actual star. Considering our 50% success rate, only 2 might become something. And I will take another first round talent over lets say having Pettit and Hodgson
Got my account hacked and stolen. Had to make another one, went with McDavid. What do you guys think of this signing? Goaltender Daniel Murphy Commits to Erie – Erie Otters
"Murphy, a 6’1”, 185-pound netminder from Guelph, Ontario was selected 301st overall by the Otters in 2016."
"Murphy, a 6’1”, 185-pound netminder from Guelph, Ontario was selected 301st overall by the Otters in 2016."
With this signing of Murphy, is there a trade out there for Timpano? Can't see Erie bringing this kid in and not playing him. Thoughts?
Not sure what to make of this, but both of our tenders have been inconsistent. With some decent goaltending, we would be in much better shape in the standings. However, on the positive side, it will make the upcoming trades easier to swallow. Murphy's record is so-so, but his other statistics look pretty good. I can't figure Timpano out. I thought he would have a good season, and it just isn't happening.
ohloutsider
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bobber
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Some one on twitter said the signing of Murphy was more fore next season not this one.
Murphy signing:
A) they needed a goalie for next year. Oberoi only one signed and scheduled to be back next yr and he hasnt been good
B) Timpano/Oberoi have been overall just plain awful. It is not wrong to say this team has 5 more wins with just solid to good goaltending
C) Murphy has played good and has earned the shot..and Erie without a 3rd goalie signed can do this
combination of factors. One would guess he is on lower B card so only can play 10 games max? Either way, in a rebuild year and with your goalies being bad - why not give the youngest of the bunch some ice time. Has nothing to do with Troy being traded. Released would be more likely. Who is going to pay for a sub .880 OA goalie? on a contending team he is a backup, and why are you using an OA on a backup? on a rebuild or young team...why not go without your younger/better goalie if Troy isnt an upgrade. Dont give me his playoff experience either. He nearly signal handily cost Erie round 2 vs london and round 3 vs OS. He was about 90 percent of the reason they didnt win a mem cup. With a loaded offense and a defense that gave up 20 shots a night last year...troy still managed .900 numbers. and far worse numbers in playoffs. Nobody is trading for him
A) they needed a goalie for next year. Oberoi only one signed and scheduled to be back next yr and he hasnt been good
B) Timpano/Oberoi have been overall just plain awful. It is not wrong to say this team has 5 more wins with just solid to good goaltending
C) Murphy has played good and has earned the shot..and Erie without a 3rd goalie signed can do this
combination of factors. One would guess he is on lower B card so only can play 10 games max? Either way, in a rebuild year and with your goalies being bad - why not give the youngest of the bunch some ice time. Has nothing to do with Troy being traded. Released would be more likely. Who is going to pay for a sub .880 OA goalie? on a contending team he is a backup, and why are you using an OA on a backup? on a rebuild or young team...why not go without your younger/better goalie if Troy isnt an upgrade. Dont give me his playoff experience either. He nearly signal handily cost Erie round 2 vs london and round 3 vs OS. He was about 90 percent of the reason they didnt win a mem cup. With a loaded offense and a defense that gave up 20 shots a night last year...troy still managed .900 numbers. and far worse numbers in playoffs. Nobody is trading for him
This team is awful. Worst defence I have ever seen. Just horrible.
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