Player Discussion: Early 2021 Breakout Players

[ps241]

Great thread idea @truck

I was weeded all day but I was going to go off about Appleton’s game in a positive way. Still running a crash shift here domestically so when I get my head out of my ass I will dig in with my breakdown.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I wonder what stats say bout Heinola as he has the potential to be our best D with mo not playing like a 1d. Or even a 2d.

 

[truck]

Great thread idea @truck

I was weeded all day but I was going to go off about Appleton’s game in a positive way. Still running a crash shift here domestically so when I get my head out of my ass I will dig in with my breakdown.

I prefer to get weeded in the evenings.

 

[truck]

I wonder what stats say bout Heinola as he has the potential to be our best D with mo not playing like a 1d. Or even a 2d.

The stats don't say much given the sample, but he and Samberg really are the only arrows left in the quiver - and they both have considerable upsided.

I'd love to see Heinola get a shot, but I don't think it comes without a significant injury to Morrissey or Pionk. Mo is set on the PP, and he won't have Heiny kill penalties.

 

[Nickel eye Heel hers]

Is it me or when Ehlers doesn't have time to think about shooting he scores more often?

It's true.
Given too much time it looks like he over thinks it.

 

[ElLoboBlanco]

Adam Lowry

The offense is nice. He's doing it without Copp. His skating has drastically improved over time. Speed, quickness, edgework. I think about that a lot when I hear criticisms of Perfetti's skating.

 

[ps241]

I prefer to get weeded in the evenings.

Yea that’s wise if only it was that weed .

 

[ps241]

Throwing this out there for a change of pace from the swirl of negativity that's happening in other threads.

The Jets have issues, but we've also seen some awesome play, and some of it has come from unexpected places.

Who's play have you been especially pleased with so far this year?

I'll start.

Nik Ehlers - He was already the Jets best player IMO, and he's out there proving it right now. He is a dominant force at 5 on 5 and he continues to make everyone he plays with better. Apart from his offensive play, he's taking the puck away from the opponent a ton. He just applies so much pressure to the opponent, that he has to be frustrating to play against. I have no doubt in my mind that he'd finish the season among the NHL's top 5-10 scorers if he was given real minutes on the 1st PP.

Andrew Copp - Another player that isn't really breaking out, but he's doing all the right things with his new found ice time. I've found myself looking at some of his NZ work and going "Holy shit! Copp made that pass!?" He's a safe player, but he's been given the opportunity to make plays and he's capitalizing. He looks REALLY good in this new scoring role, and he's second on the team in shots - despite a lack of 1st unit PP time.

Mason Appleton - This kid has always been a Copp-lite to me, and he's clearly earned the coaches trust. He's playing in the Tanev slot and doing a far better job. He is a smart defensive player and I think he's got some untapped offensive upside. Like Copp, I think you can play him anywhere and he'll improve the team's puck control game.

Logan Stanley - He isn't bringing near as much at the others that I mentioned, but I'm VERY encouraged by what I've seen from him in his 3rd pairing role. His skating is so much better than it was last year. His pivots are much smoother and he isn't getting beat to the outside the same way. The way he moves, he looks like a different player out there. I wouldn't rush him up the line-up, but there no case for removing him at this point. Very encouraging stuff.

Derek Forbort - He looks like his pre-injury self. He won't wow anyone, but he's been super steady and he is a great compliment to the more erratic Pionk. That pair leads the Jets in 5 on 5 ice time per game, and may have become the de facto 1st pair. That's not an ideal situation for him, but he's doing everything that asked of him and more. 5 points in 10 games is a nice plus too.

I will just use your base of players here:

Ehlers I agree with you on. I think he is going to benefit from not playing with Laine. I really like the idea of using a player like Copp with Ehlers since Andrew is brilliant at ice hockey and really fits well with a dynamic puck carrier like Nik. Ehlers is our best asset in the top 6 now and a very dynamic play driver.

Andrew Copp is an easy yes for me. Although I have chunked it on some player evaluations I was always the lead cheerleader of the Andrew Copp fan club both on the ice and off the ice. I think he would make our best Captain but I won't go down the rabbit hole now. Copp was my favorite Jet player to isolate on at live games. He has always been elite defensively and I believed there was "enough" offense there to play him in the top 6. One gift of Laine being gone and PLD being delayed is that we are seeing a good long look of Copp in the top 6 and it turns out he has more than enough offence to fit in. Then you add all the other things he can do like go hard to the net often, play in strait lines, doesn't hesitate to shoot, has much better vision and feel for the attack than people think. However mostly its just that without the puck he is much much better than the our skilled scorers. He makes any line he plays on much harder to victimize and that is something our board and the league grossly underrates. Now I know Stats, Nik, and Copp didn't necessarily eat the toughest match ups but they were a top line that actually plays really well in our zone.

Its not about scoring or offensive skills alone but that is what fan bases, box scores, and the league values. The game is really about your scoring + how you defend in all three zones. What good is it to look great and score 30 goals when you are easy to victimize and you leak 35 goals against? Trading punches is inefficient and way too expensive cap hit wise. "Empty calories".

Copp has always been underrated here and I am glad he is getting slotted in where our team needs him to balance out all our pretty boys.

End rant

Mason Appleton, I was going to go off in the PGT about how much joy I am getting from watching him kick ass on the 3rd line. What I really like is he is freeing up Copp to not be there. In this instance I agree with Maurice when he said Appleton has arrived as a pro (cringe) but he has taken his game to the next level and is playing faster all over the ice. Our 3rd line is dominating WITHOUT Copp and that is a huge advantage.

I love being wrong about Logan Stanley but I also don't want to get too far ahead of myself. All the off ice work this past 7 months seems to have paid off because he has lost the gangly vibe and seems way more physically mature and his skating is no longer a big issue. Now I want to qualify that you don't trade up to 18 to acquire a bottom paring D man, that is still a mistake but not a disaster. What I do like is the big step forward and his trajectory. If he can round into a #4 type in the next two seasons then I was 100% wrong and that result would bring me the ultimate joy. Happy for the kid though he has suffered the slings and arrows and has met it with hard work and determination.

Honorable mention is Frenchy's bounce back season. It really takes the sting out of that final year of his contract. The dude has always given every ounce so its nice to see one of the good guys do well. Honorable mention to Lowry who is absolutely beasting and my only wish is that he stays healthy.

 

[Gil Fisher]

a little more Nik Ehlers love .....i have him 22nd in the NHL in p/60 over the past 2.2 seasons

 

[Adam da bomb]

I will just use your base of players here:

Ehlers I agree with you on. I think he is going to benefit from not playing with Laine. I really like the idea of using a player like Copp with Ehlers since Andrew is brilliant at ice hockey and really fits well with a dynamic puck carrier like Nik. Ehlers is our best asset in the top 6 now and a very dynamic play driver.

Andrew Copp is an easy yes for me. Although I have chunked it on some player evaluations I was always the lead cheerleader of the Andrew Copp fan club both on the ice and off the ice. I think he would make our best Captain but I won't go down the rabbit hole now. Copp was my favorite Jet player to isolate on at live games. He has always been elite defensively and I believed there was "enough" offense there to play him in the top 6. One gift of Laine being gone and PLD being delayed is that we are seeing a good long look of Copp in the top 6 and it turns out he has more than enough offence to fit in. Then you add all the other things he can do like go hard to the net often, play in strait lines, doesn't hesitate to shoot, has much better vision and feel for the attack than people think. However mostly its just that without the puck he is much much better than the our skilled scorers. He makes any line he plays on much harder to victimize and that is something our board and the league grossly underrates. Now I know Stats, Nik, and Copp didn't necessarily eat the toughest match ups but they were a top line that actually plays really well in our zone.

Its not about scoring or offensive skills alone but that is what fan bases, box scores, and the league values. The game is really about your scoring + how you defend in all three zones. What good is it to look great and score 30 goals when you are easy to victimize and you leak 35 goals against? Trading punches is inefficient and way too expensive cap hit wise. "Empty calories".

Copp has always been underrated here and I am glad he is getting slotted in where our team needs him to balance out all our pretty boys.

End rant

Mason Appleton, I was going to go off in the PGT about how much joy I am getting from watching him kick ass on the 3rd line. What I really like is he is freeing up Copp to not be there. In this instance I agree with Maurice when he said Appleton has arrived as a pro (cringe) but he has taken his game to the next level and is playing faster all over the ice. Our 3rd line is dominating WITHOUT Copp and that is a huge advantage.

I love being wrong about Logan Stanley but I also don't want to get too far ahead of myself. All the off ice work this past 7 months seems to have paid off because he has lost the gangly vibe and seems way more physically mature and his skating is no longer a big issue. Now I want to qualify that you don't trade up to 18 to acquire a bottom paring D man, that is still a mistake but not a disaster. What I do like is the big step forward and his trajectory. If he can round into a #4 type in the next two seasons then I was 100% wrong and that result would bring me the ultimate joy. Happy for the kid though he has suffered the slings and arrows and has met it with hard work and determination.

Honorable mention is Frenchy's bounce back season. It really takes the sting out of that final year of his contract. The dude has always given every ounce so its nice to see one of the good guys do well. Honorable mention to Lowry who is absolutely beasting and my only wish is that he stays healthy.

Ehlers may be our best asset but he is definitely not our most valuable. I think we would be hurting more right now without Schief. We'd have no #1 centre till PLD joins. If Ehlers went down we still have KC. A downgrade but less of a downgrade than at centre.

 

[Do or Die]

Appleton is starting to look like Copp Mark II.

 

[truck]

a little more Nik Ehlers love .....i have him 22nd in the NHL in p/60 over the past 2.2 seasons

If you pull out the small sample players, he's climbs even higher over the last 1.2 seasons.

 

[truck]

Ehlers may be our best asset but he is definitely not our most valuable. I think we would be hurting more right now without Schief. We'd have no #1 centre till PLD joins. If Ehlers went down we still have KC. A downgrade but less of a downgrade than at centre.

To counter that, I'd say...

Without Ehlers, the top 6 will get out chanced and out scored - regardless of Scheifele and KC being there.

With Ehlers, we can be confident that his line will out-chance and outscore the opponent.

I love Scheifele and I think he's extremely valuable, but the Jets desperately need line drivers. Ehlers, Copp, Dubois, Lowry are those guys for Winnipeg.

Scheifele will score a ton if we can get him into the offensive zone, but his lines have been buried away from Ehlers. Maybe all of the blame belongs with Connor and Wheeler, but my eye test puts some of it on Scheifele.

 

[Adam da bomb]

To counter that, I'd say...

Without Ehlers, the top 6 will get out chanced and out scored - regardless of Scheifele and KC being there.

With Ehlers, we can be confident that his line will out-chance and outscore the opponent.

I love Scheifele and I think he's extremely valuable, but the Jets desperately need line drivers. Ehlers, Copp, Dubois, Lowry are those guys for Winnipeg.

Scheifele will score a ton if we can get him into the offensive zone, but his lines have been buried away from Ehlers. Maybe all of the blame belongs with Connor and Wheeler, but my eye test puts some of it on Scheifele.

Traditionally schief has been more of a line driver than copp. Also csw has usually taken the tougher match ups and left ehlers with easier ones.

 

[RCAFguy]

Traditionally schief has been more of a line driver than copp. Also csw has usually taken the tougher match ups and left ehlers with easier ones.

With that being the case and taking recent play into account. I think its time to try Ehlers against the stiffer competition. With CSW getting caved in by the tougher match ups, it can't hurt to see if Ehlers can help in that regard. I think the line changes were meant to address this, but I wonder if once PLD arrives, they don't play PLD's line against the other teams top lines in the future. All of this is to say, I believe CSW matching up against other top lines is going the way of the Dodo.

 

[Adam da bomb]

With that being the case and taking recent play into account. I think its time to try Ehlers against the stiffer competition. With CSW getting caved in by the tougher match ups, it can't hurt to see if Ehlers can help in that regard. I think the line changes were meant to address this, but I wonder if once PLD arrives, they don't play PLD's line against the other teams top lines in the future. All of this is to say, I believe CSW matching up against other top lines is going the way of the Dodo.

Oh I completely agree. And ehlers is our best player and with pld coming probably our most valuable. I just think if we didn’t have pld ehlers heaven forbid is more expendable to injury than schief.
One debate that has ended is who is our best winger even with laine in, I doubt anyone comes close to ehlers good debate well it lasted.
Now it’s who is our best d. Pionk, demelo, morissey.

 

[RCAFguy]

Oh I completely agree. And ehlers is our best player and with pld coming probably our most valuable. I just think if we didn’t have pld ehlers heaven forbid is more expendable to injury than schief.
One debate that has ended is who is our best winger even with laine in, I doubt anyone comes close to ehlers good debate well it lasted.
Now it’s who is our best d. Pionk, demelo, morissey.

Of those 3?

Right now? Pionk
Long term? Morrisey

Just my opinion.

 

[garret9]

Oh I completely agree. And ehlers is our best player and with pld coming probably our most valuable. I just think if we didn’t have pld ehlers heaven forbid is more expendable to injury than schief.
One debate that has ended is who is our best winger even with laine in, I doubt anyone comes close to ehlers good debate well it lasted.
Now it’s who is our best d. Pionk, demelo, morissey.

This season: Pionk
Overall: DeMelo

 

[wasup]

Of those 3?

Right now? Pionk
Long term? Morrisey

Just my opinion.

I'd go Poink now and long term .

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Pionk been really consistent I think so far this season. But so has his partner. I love that Pionk takes runs at guys his size also really adds that dimension to his game that makes guys look up

 

[truck]

Traditionally schief has been more of a line driver than copp. Also csw has usually taken the tougher match ups and left ehlers with easier ones.

By "traditionally", do you mean more than two years ago?

 

[Adam da bomb]

By "traditionally", do you mean more than two years ago?

Ouch feisty I like it.

 

[truck]

Ouch feisty I like it.

I'm not denying that Scheifele can, and perhaps should be driving lines better than Copp, it just doesn't align with what we've seen.

Based on that I have a few lines of thought...
#1) Scheifele's game has slipped (for whatever reason) and he isn't delivering the same level of play. My eye test tells me this is the case.

#2) Wheeler's decline and the holes in Connor's (and Laine's defensive games) are too much for any center to reasonably overcome. This would explain why his numbers improve so drastically with Ehlers.

#3) He's playing too much and he can't deliver across those minutes. He's played a full minute more over the last couple of years than he did in 2017-18. Is this why we see more lazy plays (see #1) than we did in the past?

I understand that he's getting tough matchups, but you aren't a plus 1C unless you win those. And he hasn't been winning them.

Perhaps there are other explanations, but I don't have an answer. I'd love to get to the bottom of the why.

 

[EXTRAS]

Apples upside? 30-40 point defensive forward?

 

[truck]

Apples upside? 30-40 point defensive forward?

I'd say his upside is mighty similar to Copp.

Point totals will depend on linemates and ice time.