Player Discussion: Early 2021 Breakout Players

[garret9]

I think a lot of the name's listed here have been for good reason.

The following is a blend of EH's GAR and xGAR models:

That said... it is early so I'll break down each player and their results:

Ehlers
I don't think anyone is going to deny that Ehlers has been the Jets best forward and overall player. The exact value may be wrong on these players but I think the overall trend is correct.

Lowry
He's been much better this season. I think some of that EVO is a bit "luck" (ie: variance) but he's been solid. Some of Appleton's EVO is being wrongfully attributed to Lowry, IMO. That is one of the weaknesses of these models, especially early on when you have players pinned together.

Scheifele
Has he been this good? Maybe, maybe not. Has he been the better of Connor, Scheifele, Wheeler... I think so. I think maybe some of the data has his EVD to high and Wheeler and Connor's too low.

Perreault
He's baaaack!

Copp
Copp has always done good in these models. He's just getting some more recognition with a bigger role and ice time, IMO.

Stastny
Been a great addition to the team and has stabalized the Jets down the centre. He's aging but more gracefully than Wheeler.

Lewis
Not bad for a PTO. Defensive specialist doing all you could hope for with a 4th line vet. Much better than some of the past 4th line vets Jets have had before.

Appleton
I think he's a bit better than the model suggests as I think it's probably overly attributing his offense to Lowry, but overall not bad.

Connor
In the Laine role he's really driving the PPO, but he may be taking the all offense no defense thing too far. I do think the model has overly attributed the defensive issues to Connor and Wheeler and then given Scheifele all this value to counter act that, but still Connor has been poor defensively.

Gus and Ves
Too small of a sample to say anything meaningful.

Harkins
Did not expect this. I'm interested how much of it is him and how much is false attributions and sh% variance since it's mostly offense.

Wheeler
Listen... some of it is PDO. Some of it is poor luck. Some of it may be injury. He's probably not actually THAT bad, but he's been bad. There's no way to deny that.

(I'll do defense on another post)

 

[Jack722]

I came back here to say just that.

Lowry isn't new, but he's had a couple of down years relative to where he was in 2017-18.

He looks to have regained that form, and pucks are going on for him too.

Appleton might be a contributing factor to this, because he provides the same sort of stability that Copp did, but Lowry looks great too.

With Appleton (plus Perreault playing really well) helping Lowry dominate matchups again that is huge for this team. For a long time it seemed like Lowry needed Copp to work off of, but this frees up Copp to drive another line. Really, really good news.

Edit: I wonder if the extended layoff helped Perreault recover from being banged up.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I think Stanley has been good in his role.
I think Stanley has been near the top of his possible trajectory when he was drafted.
I think that's 100% on Stanley's hard work and he should be commended for that.

I still say I was right in saying that the issue was opportunity costs and that Girard's come out ahead of Stanley's more often than not.

But I don't want to rehash old things. That's why I tend to talk more about how he's doing and what he is. But when people say we need to eat crow I point out that so far I don't think we've been wrong.

If they took girard plenty of other players hyped up here like Rubstov who haven’t done much.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

With the risk of sounding like I'm making excuses, can we at least wait until the current pandemic is over before eating sketchy meat?

But yes, Stanley has been an incredibly positive surprise so far this season.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I’d say he’s definitely working his way towards another contract (at a much reduced rate and term, of course).

I've always been a MP fan and I like his play this year. But I think talk of another contract is premature at best.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I haven’t been enough of a fan of ehlers in the past but wowsa.

 

[garret9]

I think a lot of the name's listed here have been for good reason.

The following is a blend of EH's GAR and xGAR models:

That said... it is early so I'll break down each player and their results:

Forbort + Pionk
Maurice treats the Morrissey pair as the #1 with EV and overall ice time, but he treats this pair as the one he trust the most. I think there's a lot of false attribution here.
Pionk's and Forbort's ice time without the other is almost non existant. I'd say give 60% of the Pionk's EVD to Forbort and maybe cancel out their offense a bit here and you got the more "true value".

Heinola
Small sample but good in sample. Maybe play him? :|:O

Stanley
These models do a decent job adjusting for sheltering over large samples, but I don't think they do in small samples and I don't think they do a good job in *extreme* sheltering situations. That said, we DO know that Stanley at least could handle a bit more than he has.

Poolman
Small sample where almost nothing happened. Nothing to see here.

Perreault
He's baaaack!

DeMelo
IMO he's the Jets best defender, although on a good team he should be a #2/#3. Has had a rough go but still better than some have acted.

Niku
I think his chance at being a NHLer is all but up. Sad but still gave more value than most 7th rounders do.

Beaulieu
Just get him off the ice and in the pressbox please. I think because of sheltering effects he's got an overly negative EVD and Stanley has overly positive, but the general trend is correct.

Morrissey
See Wheeler above, but instead of age just in a role above his head. Morrissey, Pionk, and DeMelo are all guys I think that on a good team are a #3-4 (maybe DeMelo a #2), but ya Morrissey isn't even taking the tough minutes (although he's taking the most mins) and not doing well with them. Some of it may be QoT (lots of ice time with Niku and Beaulieu).

 

[garret9]

If they took girard plenty of other players hyped up here like Rubstov who haven’t done much.

I'm not using hindsight. I chose Girard because I'm saying who they should have gone for ahead of time, even prior to the Jets trading up.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I'm not using hindsight. I chose Girard because I'm saying who they should have gone for ahead of time, even prior to the Jets trading up.

And they should have listened to you, but still could have done much worse.
What does the stats community say about pld trade?
Does Heinola have more potential than Morissey?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

enjoy it with ketchup ....

I'm not eating mine with feathers on. Nope, nope, nope, not doing that. Defeathered, eviscerated, in a nice gravy with carrots, onions, peas and potatoes. Slurp, slurp, slurp and a nice Chianti.

 

[garret9]

And they should have listened to you, but still could have done much worse.

Aye but there is the question... Stanley has outperformed how Stanley's tend to perform. This was always what his best case scenario is. A guy that could cap out a #4 in a best case scenario. And he mostly got there out of hard work.
How much do you attribute to the team for that?
How smart is it to go for that type of situation typically?

EDIT: But this is not the conversation I want to have. I would rather talk about how he's done well in a sheltered role and can probably be trailed in a non-sheltered 3rd pair role.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Aye but there is the question... Stanley has outperformed how Stanley's tend to perform. This was always what his best case scenario is. A guy that could cap out a #4 in a best case scenario. And he mostly got there out of hard work.
How much do you attribute to the team for that?
How smart is it to go for that type of situation typically?

Not smart to go for that type of situation. I’m just happy that it has worked out as well as it has, whatever that is.

 

[SUX2BU]

I'm not eating mine with feathers on. Nope, nope, nope, not doing that. Defeathered, eviscerated, in a nice gravy with carrots, onions, peas and potatoes. Slurp, slurp, slurp and a nice Chianti.

Bet you would want the wishbone too ......

 

[truck]

Ehlers - What you said.

Copp - Don't know why you said "isn't really breaking out". I'd call ppg + his usual solid 2 way play breaking out. Making his linemates better.

Appleton - Not quite so much yesterday but more so the game before, I thought of Armia while watching him. If he can keep chipping in a little offense he will have surpassed the best we got from Roslovic.

Stanley - Still avoiding making mistakes, avoiding getting beaten by faster opponents. He is playing a steady, safe game and adding some physicality on the back end. A few rookie mistakes, not too many, but he is a rookie after all.

Forbort - Yup.

I said it isn't a breakout, because he was already very good. He's just getting a bigger opportunity - and he's had a PDO run to validate it.

@garret9 used this a while ago, but it illustrates what I'm saying.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I said it isn't a breakout, because he was already very good. He's just getting a bigger opportunity - and he's had a PDO run to validate it.

@garret9 used this a while ago, but it illustrates what I'm saying.

Yeah, we knew he was good before, but only his checking and FO ability was acknowledged. I call it a breakout. We don't need to agree on the semantics.

 

[snowkiddin]

I've always been a MP fan and I like his play this year. But I think talk of another contract is premature at best.

Oops, I just meant in general. If he keeps it up someone should offer him something. If he would’ve continued his decline I don’t think any team would give him another shot.

 

[snowkiddin]

Appleton is showing us why Roslovic was expendable. He’s been great. He’s also much better defensively than Roslo ever was

 

[snowkiddin]

I think Stanley has been good in his role.
I think Stanley has been near the top of his possible trajectory when he was drafted.
I think that's 100% on Stanley's hard work and he should be commended for that.

I still say I was right in saying that the issue was opportunity costs and that Girard's come out ahead of Stanley's more often than not.

But I don't want to rehash old things. That's why I tend to talk more about how he's doing and what he is. But when people say we need to eat crow I point out that so far I don't think we've been wrong.

Not necessarily you, but A LOT of people were harping on here constantly about how bad Stanley was, how he would never amount to anything and how dumb Jets scouting was for taking big defensemen with supposed limited capabilities.

I remember coming on here and telling people to chill out and wait on Stanley because we’ve done such a good job drafting in the first round that the Jets deserve the benefit of the doubt. I basically received death threats for that.

So those people are the ones who should be eating crow.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If they took girard plenty of other players hyped up here like Rubstov who haven’t done much.

Girard and Debrincat were the only 2 who were clearly better, based on results to date. If we hadn't done the trade up, DRW probably take Stanley and we get a shot at Cholowski. He has not exactly set the world on fire. Borgstrom looked good for a while, but he has faded. Brett Howden, same thing. Sam Steel is doing alright, but nothing special. Filip Hronek is another who is doing fairly well. But otherwise, there really wasn't anything left. That class fell off hard after 16.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Appleton is showing us why Roslovic was expendable. He’s been great. He’s also much better defensively than Roslo ever was

But we are still very low on RHS players.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Not necessarily you, but A LOT of people were harping on here constantly about how bad Stanley was, how he would never amount to anything and how dumb Jets scouting was for taking big defensemen with supposed limited capabilities.

I remember coming on here and telling people to chill out and wait on Stanley because we’ve done such a good job drafting in the first round that the Jets deserve the benefit of the doubt. I basically received death threats for that.

So those people are the ones who should be eating crow.

I think you are mischaracterizing what went on. People mostly hated the pick, multiplied by the trade up to get him. Most of them probably still feel that way. I know I do.

Many people, myself included were skeptical that Stanley would ever amount to much. That is not harping constantly about how bad Stanley was. That is just saying that he was not good value for the picks used up to get him.

Last year, he seemed to be worse than he had been the year before. I gave up on him completely at that point and that is what I will eat crow over - when the time comes. I'm not ready yet. But I will happily do so when he shows that he can be a solid 3rd pair Dman against better competition. I'm really pulling for him right now but he is not there yet. And I don't care if he never scores, as long as he plays solid defense.

 

[snowkiddin]

I think you are mischaracterizing what went on. People mostly hated the pick, multiplied by the trade up to get him. Most of them probably still feel that way. I know I do.

Many people, myself included were skeptical that Stanley would ever amount to much. That is not harping constantly about how bad Stanley was. That is just saying that he was not good value for the picks used up to get him.

Last year, he seemed to be worse than he had been the year before. I gave up on him completely at that point and that is what I will eat crow over - when the time comes. I'm not ready yet. But I will happily do so when he shows that he can be a solid 3rd pair Dman against better competition. I'm really pulling for him right now but he is not there yet. And I don't care if he never scores, as long as he plays solid defense.

There’s certainly a bit of both. There were people upset at the trade and the value of the pick, yes. People weren’t mad at Stanley for being picked, but let’s not act like there weren’t a bunch of detractors around here. I went to his thread from draft day, and here are some of the reactions:


“Lukas Sutter 2.0. The kid was a total pylon at the U18’s”

“I’m not gonna take our Chevy and his scouts’ garbage decision on the prospect who is not at fault so I won’t post here.”

“We could’ve had Rubstov, Cholowski, Bellows, among others.”

“To me this goes beyond making a suboptimal pick. This raises serious questions about the Jets scouting and team philosophy. Most of their good picks have been fallers or dumb luck like Laine.”

“I expect him to never play more than a handful of games in the NHL, if that.”

“Gudbranson is far better than Stanley is ever likely to become. He scored 23 points in 41 games in his draft year.”

I’m sure if you go to his prospect thread there’s more.

So, yeah, people were mad at the pick. But not for no reason. It’s because they thought he wouldn’t amount to anything.

There were a fair number of people saying we should’ve grabbed in the third round. I went back and looked at his pre-draft rankings, and they had him ranked variously: 42, 25, 30, 58, 19 (NA skaters), 46. Doesn’t seem like someone who would be around that late. And compared to the people drafted around his spot, he’s doing fine. So the value seems fine.

I don’t know. Just seems like no one wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt.

 

[Evil Little]

I think you are mischaracterizing what went on. People mostly hated the pick, multiplied by the trade up to get him. Most of them probably still feel that way. I know I do.

Many people, myself included were skeptical that Stanley would ever amount to much. That is not harping constantly about how bad Stanley was. That is just saying that he was not good value for the picks used up to get him.

Last year, he seemed to be worse than he had been the year before. I gave up on him completely at that point and that is what I will eat crow over - when the time comes. I'm not ready yet. But I will happily do so when he shows that he can be a solid 3rd pair Dman against better competition. I'm really pulling for him right now but he is not there yet. And I don't care if he never scores, as long as he plays solid defense.

Pre-draft, @garret9 offered (multiple) reasoned support materials to show why drafting Girards is usually a better idea than drafting Stanleys.

Subsequently, though, those articles were picked up and run with and soon enough, it wasn't Girards and Stanleys, but Girard and Stanley themselves. And instead of waiting to see how those two players progressed, it was concluded that only the most unabashed Chevy stan would even think about defending the pick.

In any case, Stanley had an uphill battle in endearing himself to a subset of Jets fans--not because he was a Stanley-type, but because he was Stanley--and good on the young man, he seems to be doing it.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

There’s certainly a bit of both. There were people upset at the trade and the value of the pick, yes. People weren’t mad at Stanley for being picked, but let’s not act like there weren’t a bunch of detractors around here. I went to his thread from draft day, and here are some of the reactions:


“Lukas Sutter 2.0. The kid was a total pylon at the U18’s”

“I’m not gonna take our Chevy and his scouts’ garbage decision on the prospect who is not at fault so I won’t post here.”

“We could’ve had Rubstov, Cholowski, Bellows, among others.”

“To me this goes beyond making a suboptimal pick. This raises serious questions about the Jets scouting and team philosophy. Most of their good picks have been fallers or dumb luck like Laine.”

“I expect him to never play more than a handful of games in the NHL, if that.”

“Gudbranson is far better than Stanley is ever likely to become. He scored 23 points in 41 games in his draft year.”

I’m sure if you go to his prospect thread there’s more.

So, yeah, people were mad at the pick. But not for no reason. It’s because they thought he wouldn’t amount to anything.

There were a fair number of people saying we should’ve grabbed in the third round. I went back and looked at his pre-draft rankings, and they had him ranked variously: 42, 25, 30, 58, 19 (NA skaters), 46. Doesn’t seem like someone who would be around that late. And compared to the people drafted around his spot, he’s doing fine. So the value seems fine.

I don’t know. Just seems like no one wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt.

I read the majority of those kinds of comments in the context of the trade and pick. If we had taken him in the 3rd (we didn't have a 3rd) or 4th rds, you would have been overwhelmed with people thrilled with his size and 'boom or bust' potential.

I think you are sort of right when you say no one wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt, but again, that is in context. They (we) did not want to give the decision to take him where we did the benefit of the doubt.

It was never him. It was the trade and pick. I would have been PO'd if we had just taken him at 22, or even at 36. In hindsight, I see so little taken after 18 that was any good, that I am at least OK with the whole thing. After the first 16 picks, that was an exceptionally weak draft. DeBrincat, Girard and Hronek, that's it. There were posters here advocating for all of those 3.

But all that said, I still want to see Stanley succeed. I have ridiculed the attempt at getting the next Chara, but I will certainly be happy if we do. I hope he has continued success at 3LD. If he can succeed there against better teams, I will consider it a big win. I don't need anything more than that from him.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Pre-draft, @garret9 offered (multiple) reasoned support materials to show why drafting Girards is usually a better idea than drafting Stanleys.

Subsequently, though, those articles were picked up and run with and soon enough, it wasn't Girards and Stanleys, but Girard and Stanley themselves. And instead of waiting to see how those two players progressed, it was concluded that only the most unabashed Chevy stan would even think about defending the pick.

In any case, Stanley had an uphill battle in endearing himself to a subset of Jets fans--not because he was a Stanley-type, but because he was Stanley--and good on the young man, he seems to be doing it.

Yes, I agree, there was (is) a little tendency to resent Stanley because of how he arrived here. I admit to having had some of that myself, but I have tried to be self-correcting there. No fault of his. All he did was work hard to get drafted and then work hard ever since to get here. I congratulate him. He has earned the spot he now has. I hope to see him earn more.