Friedman: Duchene Mega-Thread Pt. 1 - Ottawa fielding offers, NSH & CBJ interested; Duchene sitting

[Habs Halifax]

Habs are in duchene if hes resigned

Suzuki
Mete/juulsen
1st 2019 For

Duchene resigned for 5 yrs Let's go

Take Mete out. He's not getting traded. He is a desperate need at LD and is looking very good playing with Weber. We need him now and for the future.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I edited to place Suzuki OR Poeling as rhe main piece. Ryan would fit our USA Hockey seeming preference.

If Poehling is preferred over Suzuki, the 1st drops to a 2nd. Habs trading Poehling is like the Sens trading Chabot prior to this season. Remember, Habs said no to Poehling+ for 5 years of ROR at age 28-32. Suzuki is available, not Poehling.

 

[Guy Larose]

If Poehling is preferred over Suzuki, the 1st drops to a 2nd. Habs trading Poehling is like the Sens trading Chabot prior to this season. Remember, Habs said no to Poehling+ for 5 years of ROR at age 28-32. Suzuki is available, not Poehling.

You don't know that, so stop dealing in absolutes.

 

[Habs Halifax]

You don't know that, so stop dealing in absolutes.

You don't know that it is not true. Bergevin said it himself to the media this off season... "tell the Sabres GM that when he lowers his price for ROR, give me a call"

 

[Guy Larose]

You don't know that it is not true. Bergevin said it himself to the media this off season... "tell the Sabres GM that when he lowers his price for ROR, give me a call"

Maybe he values MD more. Secondly, we have a better prospect pool than back then.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Maybe he values MD more. Secondly, we have a better prospect pool than back then.

Poehling > Suzuki. And I like Suzuki a lot.

 

[Guy Larose]

Poehling > Suzuki. And I like Suzuki a lot.

What don't you get that that's your opinion?

 

[A Loyal Dog]

Maybe he values MD more. Secondly, we have a better prospect pool than back then.

Matt Duchene loves the Habs (he grew up a fan and still says he loves playing there according to recent videos). Why would Bergevin trade the world to get him 4 months earlier when he can get him for free? Marc Bergevin won't be stupid, he'll trade for a "rental" Duchene because he knows Duchene will extend here. No way Ottawa gets Suzuki nor Poehling for Duchene. Maybe you'll get Juulsen, if you're lucky, and a pick.

Besides, it was known that Bergevin turned down Poehling+ for ROR, why the f*** would we trade Poehling+ (who's way better than he was last year) for a rental who would easily sign with the Habs come July 1st?

 

[Sting]

Matt Duchene loves the Habs (he grew up a fan and still says he loves playing there according to recent videos). Why would Bergevin trade the world to get him 4 months earlier when he can get him for free? Marc Bergevin won't be stupid, he'll trade for a "rental" Duchene because he knows Duchene will extend here. No way Ottawa gets Suzuki nor Poehling for Duchene. Maybe you'll get Juulsen, if you're lucky, and a pick.

How about Juulsen and a 5th for Duchene? Sound fair?

 

[Viqsi]

Him being the Sens whipping boy here is his own doing. He contributes next to nothing offensively and is a defensive liability at the best of times.

I haven’t even factored in the turnovers in my assessment of him.

I will concede it’s not totally his fault in the sense he’s a 6 Dman whose been forced into a top 4 role......but the fact remains he is not a very good NHL calibre hockey player.

He'd probably be used here as a #6D in any case, which ought to be relatively safe. I'd take him for the balance of the season, but I don't think I'd send him a QO afterwards; I wouldn't want to take the risk of him accepting it.

 

[A Loyal Dog]

How about Juulsen and a 5th for Duchene? Sound fair?

Obviously you're trolling.
But let me counter-offer... How about:
A 2019 top-4 1st round pick + Kyle Turris + Shane Bowers + Andrew Hammond + 2019 3rd round pick (OTT) for Duchene?

Just because the Sens got fleeced doesn't mean other teams will. Juulsen + 1st is fair IMO.

 

[Sting]

Obviously you're trolling.
But let me counter-offer... How about:
A 2019 top-4 1st round pick + Kyle Turris + Shane Bowers + Andrew Hammond + 2019 3rd round pick (OTT) for Duchene?

Just because the Sens got fleeced doesn't mean other teams will. Juulsen + 1st is fair IMO.

Of course they won't get that return. Juulsen and a 1st is a pretty bad offer, though. I'm sure even Dorion can do better...like a 1st and a good prospect.

 

[Mackiaveli]

Matt Duchene loves the Habs (he grew up a fan and still says he loves playing there according to recent videos). Why would Bergevin trade the world to get him 4 months earlier when he can get him for free? Marc Bergevin won't be stupid, he'll trade for a "rental" Duchene because he knows Duchene will extend here. No way Ottawa gets Suzuki nor Poehling for Duchene. Maybe you'll get Juulsen, if you're lucky, and a pick.

Besides, it was known that Bergevin turned down Poehling+ for ROR, why the **** would we trade Poehling+ (who's way better than he was last year) for a rental who would easily sign with the Habs come July 1st?

Juulsen isn't a good base; he is injured and while people are confident he will return, until he actually does and shows he is fine, his value is tanked.

You trade for a player like Duchene now because we are very likely a playoff team. Sure, we could get him in Free Agency, but the price of free agency is generally 20% more because you have other teams bidding and you get one less year.

Duchene will get 8.5-9 x 8 or 10+ x 7 --- I would happily trade one of our prospects for him if we get the cost certainty, especially with the value of cap space in today's NHL.

I would trade Poehling due to the NCAA loophole far faster than I would trade Suzuki, who likely joins the big club next year.

Poehling + Alzner + 2019 1st + Hudon for Duchene (sign and trade) and Dzingel (rental). We clear some cap space, we get a top 6C and a rental winger to bolster our offensive corps for a run this season, and the Sens get a top fledged prospect.

 

[A Loyal Dog]

Of course they won't get that return. Juulsen and a 1st is a pretty bad offer, though. I'm sure even Dorion can do better...like a 1st and a good prospect.

That's a rental offer. I'm sure there's a team out there that could offer an "extension" offer that's way better for the Sens. If Montreal were to do so, then obviously Suzuki + Lehkonen + 1st could be a better offer, but I don't think Montreal would want to go for an extension price, since they could already have an inside track on extending Duchene.

 

[Armourboy]

As someone over on the Preds board suggested though, the " snag " that has happened with Nashville may not be asset related and may instead be contract related.

The same thing happened with the Turris trade.

 

[Mackiaveli]

That's a rental offer. I'm sure there's a team out there that could offer an "extension" offer that's way better for the Sens. If Montreal were to do so, then obviously Suzuki + Lehkonen + 1st could be a better offer, but I don't think Montreal would want to go for an extension price, since they could already have an inside track on extending Duchene.

You don't risk it; if you're expending assets as Montreal for Duchene you're doing it for the long term not for the 20 games + playoffs.

 

[A Loyal Dog]

Juulsen isn't a good base; he is injured and while people are confident he will return, until he actually does and shows he is fine, his value is tanked.

You trade for a player like Duchene now because we are very likely a playoff team. Sure, we could get him in Free Agency, but the price of free agency is generally 20% more because you have other teams bidding and you get one less year.

Duchene will get 8.5-9 x 8 or 10+ x 7 --- I would happily trade one of our prospects for him if we get the cost certainty, especially with the value of cap space in today's NHL.

I would trade Poehling due to the NCAA loophole far faster than I would trade Suzuki, who likely joins the big club next year.

Poehling + Alzner + 2019 1st + Hudon for Duchene (sign and trade) and Dzingel (rental). We clear some cap space, we get a top 6C and a rental winger to bolster our offensive corps for a run this season, and the Sens get a top fledged prospect.

I would do Poehling/Suzuki + Alzner + 2019 1st + Hudon for Duchene + Dzingel too. That would make us contenders IMO.

 

[Mackiaveli]

I would do Poehling/Suzuki + Alzner + 2019 1st + Hudon for Duchene + Dzingel too. That would make us contenders IMO.

It wouldn't; our defensive corps is not good enough.

Maybe if we sent Shaw somewhere and used our cap space + prospects to bring in Fowler + something from Anaheim we would be; but that's a lot of moving parts.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Habs are in duchene if hes resigned

Suzuki
Mete/juulsen
1st 2019 For

Duchene resigned for 5 yrs Let's go

Duchene to MTL won't happen because there'll be teams who aren't hated by the Sens fan base and aren't division rivals that offer comparable packages to the above for a signed Duchene.

Buffalo was asking for the 3rd overall pick for O'Reilly. While I'm a much bigger fan of O'Reilly as a player overall than Duchene, Duchene is producing at a level O'Reilly never has, and there's always a huge recency bias with play acquisition. Buffalo traded O'Reilly to STL for much less, but I am sure the price for Montreal was higher due to Montreal being in the division. So we're talking about a higher price for what compared to current Duchene (signed) would be a less sought after player, and Buffalo doesn't even have the same level of baggage with Montreal that the Senators do.

If Duchene goes to Montreal signed, it's going to take a package headlined either by Kotkaniemi, or Drouin. For that reason, I doubt it happens. I don't see why MTL pays that much, and I don't see why Ottawa trades Duchene to a division rival who are hated by their fan base for anything less than the above players headlining a package deal that also contains a 1st and another piece.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

As someone over on the Preds board suggested though, the " snag " that has happened with Nashville may not be asset related and may instead be contract related.

The same thing happened with the Turris trade.

Nashville almost never gives out NTCs or flagrant signing bonuses. I can imagine this might be a problem when it comes to signing Duchene who is likely expecting a bonus heavy deal with a NMC.

 

[BatVader]

Duchene to MTL won't happen because there'll be teams who aren't hated by the Sens fan base and aren't division rivals that offer comparable packages to the above for a signed Duchene.

Buffalo was asking for the 3rd overall pick for O'Reilly. While I'm a much bigger fan of O'Reilly as a player overall than Duchene, Duchene is producing at a level O'Reilly never has, and there's always a huge recency bias with play acquisition. Buffalo traded O'Reilly to STL for much less, but I am sure the price for Montreal was higher due to Montreal being in the division. So we're talking about a higher price for what compared to current Duchene (signed) would be a less sought after player, and Buffalo doesn't even have the same level of baggage with Montreal that the Senators do.

If Duchene goes to Montreal signed, it's going to take a package headlined either by Kotkaniemi, or Drouin. For that reason, I doubt it happens. I don't see why MTL pays that much, and I don't see why Ottawa trades Duchene to a division rival who are hated by their fan base for anything less than the above players headlining a package deal that also contains a 1st and another piece.

Yeah, because Melnyk and Dorion have proven in the past that they put Sens fans first...

 

[Mackiaveli]

If Duchene goes to Montreal signed, it's going to take a package headlined either by Kotkaniemi, or Drouin. For that reason, I doubt it happens

But both players are individually worth more due to contract situation and other factors.

price for Montreal was higher due to Montreal being in the division.

Yeah, remember what happened with Hoffman? I think Doorman learned his lesson. You take the best deal available, it doesn't matter where it's coming from.

 

[Habs Halifax]

What don't you get that that's your opinion?

I didn't say it was not an opinion. Relax buddy. I'm not pretending it to be fact... I'm telling you what I think which is an opinion.

 

[Armourboy]

Nashville almost never gives out NTCs or flagrant signing bonuses. I can imagine this might be a problem when it comes to signing Duchene who is likely expecting a bonus heavy deal with a NMC.

Yup I think the only player left with one is Rinne and I think his runs out this year and there isn't one on his two year deal.

Next season we will not have a single player with a NTC.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I see Duchene going to Columbus in a three-way, where a third team gets a Panarin rental and Ottawa gets loads of draft picks from said third team. Then I see Columbus signing him to a 7 year extension.

 

[FrankMTL]

That's the thing with Duchene, the best offers may come from teams that Duchene doesn't necessarily want to sign with long term. That lowers his value enormously. In that situation, he would be traded as a pure rental.