Speculation: Draft Talk, 2018: Picks 1, 32, 94, 117, 125, 156, 187

[OkimLom]

In his last 3 years Tkachuk has scored 4, 12, (USHL) and now 8 with BU. He makes Kassian look like Patrick Laine. He has some of what we need but guys you are truly expecting him to become something he has not shown that he is. You want big rambunctious winger-ok. You want him to be Zach Hyman then I get it. But in the top 5. We will have to agree to disagree.

And yet, he's ranked in the top 5 in the major publications, go figure.

He's scored 4, 12, and now 8 goals, but it's also nice to see those stats with more context like:

USHL
@ 16 years old in 32 games 4 goals 4 assists
@ 17 years old in 24 games 12 goals 11 assists

USDP
@ 16 years old in 55 games 9 goals 16 assists
@ 17 years old in 61 games 25 goals 29 assists

College
@ 18 years old in 36 games 8 goals 20 assists

Those that like him, we want him because of his effective play in the corners and his offensive ability to make plays. He's a piece that we drastically need in our top 6. You know how Girgensons and Eichel being together was something posters wanted to see here, and how their games on paper COULD fit nicely, even though Girgs' play has never really proven to be effective in puck possession, adding Tkachuk with his talent, would be an immediate upgrade in ability and an improvement in effectiveness. Yes, we want to add talent, but we also need to address building a team, which includes find talent that can fill/create roles.

Personally, I would want him on this team because he has shown the ability to finish, but he has been proven to be effective in the puck possession game, which is something we need, especially in our top 6 talent. He's a guy that can make Reinhart, ROR's, and Eichel's jobs easier, and is a guy whose work can be effective for guys like Nylander and Mittelstadt to be effective goal scorers themselves. He's what Kane would be on Eichel's line, if Kane had better hockey sense.

 

[Chainshot]

Lundkvist didn't play for Lulea today.

 

[Club]

Praise. I still like Hughes. But not 2OA D.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Praise. I still like Hughes. But not 2OA D.

Dont think anyone doubts Hughes's offensove upside with his dynamic ability. But the question there remains how well can he handle defensive tasks with his size. Point production is far from the complete picture when it comes to defencemen.

 

[1972]

Hughes checks so many of the elite boxes, if Erik Karlsson can learn how to play D then why can’t Hughes?

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Hughes checks so many of the elite boxes, if Erik Karlsson can learn how to play D then why can’t Hughes?

Karlsson is considered a bit undersized and he still has 2 inches on Hughes. When you talk about D size matters and can make up for shortcomings in overall defensive ability. Even the Ghost and McAvoy who are examples of modern young undersized D have an inch or two inches on Hughes as of the current available data. Is hughes expwcted to grow to 5'11 - 6'0 feet by the time he hits the NHL? I cant remember when you were supposed to stop growing in height. Combine measurements on him will be quite interesting. Similar with Boqvist but he is at least listed at 5'11 even now so the gap between him and Karlsson in size is smaller and hes basically an year younger than Hughes so he is more likely to grow to 6 feet man.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

Point production is far from the complete picture when it comes to defencemen.

 

[Ethan Edwards]

Karlsson is considered a bit undersized and he still has 2 inches on Hughes. When you talk about D size matters and can make up for shortcomings in overall defensive ability. Even the Ghost and McAvoy who are examples of modern young undersized D have an inch or two inches on Hughes as of the current available data. Is hughes expwcted to grow to 5'11 - 6'0 feet by the time he hits the NHL? I cant remember when you were supposed to stop growing in height. Combine measurements on him will be quite interesting. Similar with Boqvist but he is at least listed at 5'11 even now so the gap between him and Karlsson in size is smaller and hes basically an year younger than Hughes so he is more likely to grow to 6 feet man.

Valid points, but I still believe you're overemphasizing size, or lack thereof, a bit too much when analyzing his potential, along with potential shortcomings, here. I've known plenty of Dmen who were "undersized" to various degrees. The ones who succeeded were able to bulk up (particularly in the lower body) and use positioning and smarts to their advantage. Not all were successful, and right now that's the biggest concern with Hughes (meaning his overall defensive prowess), but I don't think a few inches here or there is the determining factor or should be of major concern in terms of draft pedigree.

That's because he's truly a dynamic playmaker from the back end. I'm not advocating for us to select him, necessarily, but I've seen quite a lot of Hughes and he is truly offensively gifted. And the first thing that stands out is the first thing that should stand out when evaluating ANY player, and that's skating ability. He's a fluid, fantastic skater. Agreed, there are other factors to consider after that, and there are pros and cons as applied to Hughes, but some will overlook a lot of the flaws and be mesmerized by the dynamic offensive skills. He's far from useless defensively, but he will need to improve in that area. I think scouting departments will look at the whole package and could very well conclude he's the 2nd best Dman available regardless of defensive acumen, we'll just have to work him up. The offensive genius of Paul Coffey, led by his drool-inducing skating ability, covered up a lot of his defensive shortcomings...not that I'm making that comparison of course. Just an illustration, extreme though it may be.

Do I think he is the 2nd best Dman? Not that anyone cares, but personally I wouldn't argue, though my info is incomplete. I'm most familiar with Hughes because of where he plays, but I've seen enough of Bouchard to really like the skill set. I've also heard nothing but positives about Boqvist, but I just haven't seen him very much at all save for some highlight reels, which are almost, though not totally, useless when evaluating a player. Nobody else I've personally seen is in that second tier of Dmen after Dahlin, though my "scouting jacket" is admittedly incomplete. Yes, I'm ashamed. I need to improve. Consider this a self-chastisement.

 

[sabrebuild]

Valid points, but I still believe you're overemphasizing size, or lack thereof, a bit too much when analyzing his potential, along with potential shortcomings, here. I've known plenty of Dmen who were "undersized" to various degrees. The ones who succeeded were able to bulk up (particularly in the lower body) and use positioning and smarts to their advantage. Not all were successful, and right now that's the biggest concern with Hughes (meaning his overall defensive prowess), but I don't think a few inches here or there is the determining factor or should be of major concern in terms of draft pedigree.

That's because he's truly a dynamic playmaker from the back end. I'm not advocating for us to select him, necessarily, but I've seen quite a lot of Hughes and he is truly offensively gifted. And the first thing that stands out is the first thing that should stand out when evaluating ANY player, and that's skating ability. He's a fluid, fantastic skater. Agreed, there are other factors to consider after that, and there are pros and cons as applied to Hughes, but some will overlook a lot of the flaws and be mesmerized by the dynamic offensive skills. He's far from useless defensively, but he will need to improve in that area. I think scouting departments will look at the whole package and could very well conclude he's the 2nd best Dman available regardless of defensive acumen, we'll just have to work him up. The offensive genius of Paul Coffey, led by his drool-inducing skating ability, covered up a lot of his defensive shortcomings...not that I'm making that comparison of course. Just an illustration, extreme though it may be.

Do I think he is the 2nd best Dman? Not that anyone cares, but personally I wouldn't argue, though my info is incomplete. I'm most familiar with Hughes because of where he plays, but I've seen enough of Bouchard to really like the skill set. I've also heard nothing but positives about Boqvist, but I just haven't seen him very much at all save for some highlight reels, which are almost, though not totally, useless when evaluating a player. Nobody else I've personally seen is in that second tier of Dmen after Dahlin, though my "scouting jacket" is admittedly incomplete. Yes, I'm ashamed. I need to improve. Consider this a self-chastisement.

My biggest concern is who was the last guy his size and style to be successful in the nhl...

But perhaps he can be undersized letang or Karlsson. But that seems risky for a 2overall.

 

[Chainshot]

My biggest concern is who was the last guy his size and style to be successful in the nhl...

But perhaps he can be undersized letang or Karlsson. But that seems risky for a 2overall.

Krug and Spurgeon are probably size comparable. The Bs also put Grzelcyk out there at 5’9”.

 

[sabrebuild]

Krug and Spurgeon are probably size comparable. The Bs also put Grzelcyk out there at 5’9”.

I was thinking about spurgeon... and thinking I’d be sick if we used a 2ov on a slight upgrade on him.

Idk I think I’m skewed on Hughes because I’m risk adverse at picking a project at 2ov and I watched him live in Jamestown for a pre wjc game and was not impressed by his sense at all.

Now that could be he was goofing off in an exhibition. But for a guy about to be drafted top ten that feels wrong and concerning if he takes things that lightly, particularly since his tourney didn’t go well.

But more to his game that I saw live, I saw a guy who is very aggressive offensively, in almost any situation. Without a whole lot of concern about the team need to take risks or his coverage.

I also thought he was overly reliant on stickhandling on his rushes. By that I don’t mean he made a single decisive move to get by an opponent, but rather he wants to go lateral on the rush a lot and go phone booth dangles on one guy after another.

It reminded me a little of Reggie Bush in USC where his filthy acceleration and speed allowed him to pull off absurd plays against good competition, but a style that just can’t work in the pros.

I feel like a lot of Hughes skating decisions and the way he attacks defenses will end with him getting killed or a lot of turnovers.

Dahlin, who also sees the green light always, does not worry me as much, especially on the rush because even tho he also has exceptional agility, he maintains a North/South lane, protecting himself from back checkers.

Again tiny sample and his Michigan games could be very different. I would totally draft him in the middle of the first, but 2 overall, give me svech despite position needs.

 

[Ethan Edwards]

My biggest concern is who was the last guy his size and style to be successful in the nhl...

But perhaps he can be undersized letang or Karlsson. But that seems risky for a 2overall.

Brian Rafalski is always the first guy who comes to my mind when discussing diminutive Dmen who were successful. Not that he's the only, or most recent, one, just one of the better ones in my memory. That said, I'm not pushing Hughes as the 2nd best Dman, necessarily, and certainly not the 2nd overall pick (to me, today, Svechnikov has cemented himself as a clear 2nd best), but I have seen him up close enough to have witnessed his offensive skills, so I think he's firmly in the 2nd tier of Dmen. However large that tier is will vary by person, but IMO he's there. I mean, he's such a creative force from the back end that it's hard to not get giddy when imagining what his future could hold since he's such a young kid still. But he's a Dman, and Dmen need to play defense, so there are concerns there...unless of course you just want a whirling dervish-type offensive dynamo who holds his ten-gallon hat in one hand and rides the beast until he gets thrown 20 feet in spectacular fashion, defensive chops be damned! But even with that image in mind, much like Guhle, he has the ability to lead the rush and be the 1st guy back on defense, so most of the concern will be with developing his ability to defend down low, along the boards, etc. It'll come down to what teams are looking for, I guess.

 

[Icejoker]

You can put Boqvist in there too IMO. I think he is almost as good as Dahlin offensively.

Dont know how You read stats. Dahli has playd 41 SHL games 7 goals 13 assist and Boqvist has 17 games ,he has 1 assist.

 

[sabrebuild]

Dont know how You read stats. Dahli has playd 41 SHL games 7 goals 13 assist and Boqvist has 17 games ,he has 1 assist.

In theory he could still be close skills wise, but physical development and ice time would still squash his stats.

I have not watched a full game of boqvist so he could suck too.

 

[Chainshot]

I was thinking about spurgeon... and thinking I’d be sick if we used a 2ov on a slight upgrade on him.

Idk I think I’m skewed on Hughes because I’m risk adverse at picking a project at 2ov and I watched him live in Jamestown for a pre wjc game and was not impressed by his sense at all.

Now that could be he was goofing off in an exhibition. But for a guy about to be drafted top ten that feels wrong and concerning if he takes things that lightly, particularly since his tourney didn’t go well.

But more to his game that I saw live, I saw a guy who is very aggressive offensively, in almost any situation. Without a whole lot of concern about the team need to take risks or his coverage.

I also thought he was overly reliant on stickhandling on his rushes. By that I don’t mean he made a single decisive move to get by an opponent, but rather he wants to go lateral on the rush a lot and go phone booth dangles on one guy after another.

It reminded me a little of Reggie Bush in USC where his filthy acceleration and speed allowed him to pull off absurd plays against good competition, but a style that just can’t work in the pros.

I feel like a lot of Hughes skating decisions and the way he attacks defenses will end with him getting killed or a lot of turnovers.

Dahlin, who also sees the green light always, does not worry me as much, especially on the rush because even tho he also has exceptional agility, he maintains a North/South lane, protecting himself from back checkers.

Again tiny sample and his Michigan games could be very different. I would totally draft him in the middle of the first, but 2 overall, give me svech despite position needs.

Funny, but the description of someone trying to always break someone down with one-on-one stickhandling is my biggest complaint about how Mittelstadt's game evolved over the year as his linemates did less and less with what he was providing them.

Hughes does have enough d-zone concern to be troubling at 2 overall, but his overall game at the NCAA level is a different beast than at the U-20's. He's so often used in defensive situations now versus at the start of the season. Improvements have been made there, he's grown from early season viewings.

He is very much a gambler because he is so good at breaking the puck out all on his own, gaining the zone and moving the puck from defense to offense. His bread and butter will be in transition and attack.

 

[sabrebuild]

Funny, but the description of someone trying to always break someone down with one-on-one stickhandling is my biggest complaint about how Mittelstadt's game evolved over the year as his linemates did less and less with what he was providing them with.

He was exactly who I had in mind. Tho like you said that seems more of a function of what he has to work with, rather than what his instincts tell him to do.

With a dman that worries me more, the natural risk of a breakdown leaving him stranded.

But like I said, minimal viewings in a tournament so I bow to you and Ethan on how he has progressed defensively. If he is really making big strides, that sounds great.

 

[Chainshot]

He was exactly who I had in mind. Tho like you said that seems more of a function of what he has to work with, rather than what his instincts tell him to do.

With a dman that worries me more, the natural risk of a breakdown leaving him stranded.

But like I said, minimal viewings in a tournament so I bow to you and Ethan on how he has progressed defensively. If he is really making big strides, that sounds great.

I've said it before, I want to not like him. But I do. I like him a lot -- size and risky game and all. He's dynamite.

 

[sabrebuild]

I've said it before, I want to not like him. But I do. I like him a lot -- size and risky game and all. He's dynamite.

I might have to take a look again. Are they getting an invite to the tourney?

 

[Chainshot]

I might have to take a look again. Are they getting an invite to the tourney?

I think they will, Pairwise has them 10th IIRC.

 

[Snippit]

Starting to think Zadina on Eichel's wing would be drool worthy.
ensiv
Mittelstadt-Eichel-Zadina
Player-ROR-Reinhart

I realize I've been a proponent of picking defense, but outside of Dahlin, every defenceman poses pretty important risks. Hughes is 5'9 and has questionable defensive play, Bouchard has questionable defensive play, and Boqvist is rather unproven.

Svech/Zadina/Tkachuk seem like sure bets.

As for the D...I mean, the Penguins won a Stanley Cup last year with their best defenceman being Brian Dumoulin. Jersey's defence currently lacks a #1D as well and they're starting to look pretty legit.

Worst comes to worst you trade ROR for a defenceman.

 

[sabrebuild]

Zadina works out really well in NHL18, for what it’s worth.

 

[Ethan Edwards]

Hughes does have enough d-zone concern to be troubling at 2 overall, but his overall game at the NCAA level is a different beast than at the U-20's. He's so often used in defensive situations now versus at the start of the season. Improvements have been made there, he's grown from early season viewings.

He is very much a gambler because he is so good at breaking the puck out all on his own, gaining the zone and moving the puck from defense to offense. His bread and butter will be in transition and attack.

Couldn't have put it better myself. And believe me, I tried.

He's definitely better than he was a few short months ago, as you would expect from a developing prospect. And he's all of 18 1/2 I think. The first, at least, 8-10 picks in this draft are really pretty interesting to me for a variety of reasons, starting with...they're all pretty freaking good. Lots to nitpick about, sure, but lots of talent at the top this year IMO.

 

[Ethan Edwards]

Zadina works out really well in NHL18, for what it’s worth.

These are the reports you get when you REALLY strip down a scouting department's funding.

 

[1972]

Zadina works out really well in NHL18, for what it’s worth.

I doubt he ends up in Buffalo, but I’m super intrigued to see what kinda of scorer he becomes in the NHL. Is he going to have a Boeser/Laine type of scoring ability?

 

[sabrebuild]

These are the reports you get when you REALLY strip down a scouting department's funding.

Long nights...