Draft Pick Push

[seafoam]

Challenge - what is the probability of Isles grabbing the 1st and either 2nd or 3rd pick?

Like somewhere around 25%

 

[And You Feel Shame]

Challenge - what is the probability of Isles grabbing the 1st and either 2nd or 3rd pick?

0.6%

 

[SI]

Like somewhere around 25%

It is a permutation probability equation -
I think it is 15!/15-3! = the number possible permutations, but that is not the full picture.

Just nerding out

 

[SI]

0.6%

How did you come up with that number?
Just curious?

 

[And You Feel Shame]

It is a permutation probability equation -
I think it is 15!/15-3! = the number possible permutations, but that is not the full picture.

Just nerding out

It's simpler than that. You account for the two scenarios... Isles get first, Calgary gets 2 or 3; Calgary gets first, Isles get 2 or 3:

Isles: 5.5% * 5.7% = 0.3135%
Calgary: 2.5% * 12.0% = 0.3%

Then add.

Technically, it's a smidge higher because once one or the other wins #1, the percentages for winning 2 or 3 go up a small amount for each remaining team.

It's still a really small chance not going to happen.

 

[Mr Misunderstood]

It's simpler than that. You account for the two scenarios... Isles get first, Calgary gets 2 or 3; Calgary gets first, Isles get 2 or 3:

Isles: 5.5% * 5.7% = 0.3135%
Calgary: 2.5% * 12.0% = 0.3%

Then add.

Technically, it's a smidge higher because once one or the other wins #1, the percentages for winning 2 or 3 go up a small amount for each remaining team.

It's still a really small chance not going to happen.

Cue Lloyd Christmas!

 

[Satan'sIsland81]

Draft picks mean nothing if Garth Snow is still the GM. I dont care if we have the #1 and #2 pick, I would rather Snow be gone because he will somehow f*** it up. The only thing that matters, so far beyond anything else, is Garth Snow being shown the door.

 

[SI]

It's simpler than that. You account for the two scenarios... Isles get first, Calgary gets 2 or 3; Calgary gets first, Isles get 2 or 3:

Isles: 5.5% * 5.7% = 0.3135%
Calgary: 2.5% * 12.0% = 0.3%

Then add.

Technically, it's a smidge higher because once one or the other wins #1, the percentages for winning 2 or 3 go up a small amount for each remaining team.

It's still a really small chance not going to happen.

Really?

I don't think that is the entire picture here.
What is the probability of both happening - is the extra layer to this, right?

totally genuine question

 

[And You Feel Shame]

Really?

I don't think that is the entire picture here.
What is the probability of both happening - is the extra layer to this, right?

totally genuine question

The "both" is the multiplication. In either scenario, you know the probability of each part.

Take a coin flip... what are the chances that you'll hit heads twice?

First flip = 50%
Second flip = 50%

Both flips = .5 * .5 or .25 (25%)

If something is a 1 in 10 chance and you want it to happen twice, it's .1 * .1 or .01
Now, this situation is more like 1 in 10 followed by 1 in 9, so it's .1 * .111111... or .0111111... which is why I said the chance is really marginally higher than the 0.6135% stated above.

 

[danteipp]

This season we had...
-2 PPG centers
-a Calder winner
-a 40 goal scorer
-a 70 point Bailey
-a 30 point rookie D

...and yet we still have a stupid draft pick push thread.

Isn't it amazing (and not in a good way)? And add in that Beauvillier found his legs after some early struggles and had a nice sophomore year as well. He might even get to 20 goals, which we all probably would have happily signed up for.

The Isles have one of the hardest things to assemble in their two top lines. They probably just needed to replace Hamonic (after he was traded) with a serviceable vet and field a middling, competent defensive system.

In an ideal world, they should have gotten a decent 3C, even if it cost Nelson and a bit more, and sacrifice some "upside" for reliability and defensive zone acumen.

Yet here we are hoping for a miracle (or two) in order to cover up Snow's deficiencies in rounding out the roster. Praying for that top-4 defense prospect and maybe another forward that comes quickly.

 

[BelovedIsles]

This season we had...
-2 PPG centers
-a Calder winner
-a 40 goal scorer
-a 70 point Bailey
-a 30 point rookie D

...and yet we still have a stupid draft pick push thread.

You forgot Ladd's impeccable leadership.

 

[islesfan66]

If i know this team like i think i do.... they' are about to get really hot and win way way too many games

 

[doublechili]

If i know this team like i think i do.... they' are about to get really hot and win way way too many games

Yeah, and Ladd and Nelson will become offensive beasts, and Halak will be a brick wall. Just because.

 

[SI90]

Canes blew it.

 

[PWJunior]

Davidson, leading the tank charge.

 

[PWJunior]

We finally win one. Oops, wrong thread.

Oh well, we're in the 8th spot still.

 

[doublechili]

God I hate Ladd and Nelson. You just know that they're going to combine for 10 goals in the next couple of weeks. Hate them. Hate. Worthless POSs stepping it up when we need them to just maintain their useless status quo. Aaaargh.

 

[doublechili]

BTW, mark my words: closing the "Playoff Push" thread was a mistake. That was our tank reverse jinx.

 

[Poulin 0n My St1ck]

Really disappointed in the win tonight, the team finally got some puck luck and capitalized on its bounces, but I think we have a decent shot to lose the next one.

 

[BarBeauWahlDobLok]

God I hate Ladd and Nelson. You just know that they're going to combine for 10 goals in the next couple of weeks. Hate them. Hate. Worthless POSs stepping it up when we need them to just maintain their useless status quo. Aaaargh.

Yes. If we needed this game to make the playoffs, no way Nelson or Ladd score. We're losers for a reason. It starts with ownership and management.

 

[scott99]

Draft picks mean nothing if Garth Snow is still the GM. I dont care if we have the #1 and #2 pick, I would rather Snow be gone because he will somehow **** it up. The only thing that matters, so far beyond anything else, is Garth Snow being shown the door.

Garth needs to go. Hopefully they lose the rest of the games to force the owner’s hand. Though I have a hard time rooting for a loss, doesn’t come naturally for me.

This really is a HUGE test for Ledecky and Malkin, if they fail to fire Snow & Weight, they fail the test. They will be considered no better than Wang. IF they do the right thing, and that’s a HUGE if, then there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Then they will prove they are in it for more than real estate and that they truly want to win.

I was really disappointed this offseason. After the 2015-16 season, coming off winning a playoff round for the 1st time in 23 years, Ledecky said he expected progression, and would hold people accountable if there wasn’t. He was not a man of his word as the Isles regressed. Now we are going to miss the playoffs 2 years in a row, he needs to be a man of his word.

Those in the “but the double secret 10 contract Wang gave Snow on his way out” team. I say this, who gives a shit ? They buy out players, they can certainly afford to pay Snow while a NORMAL GM does the job.

 

[NewYorkIsles]

 

[MattMartin]

OP updated!

 

[MattMartin]

BTW, mark my words: closing the "Playoff Push" thread was a mistake. That was our tank reverse jinx.

Actually we fell to 8th and Calgary has fell. We were 11th and Calgary was 13th (now 12th) and has lost 6 straight. The tank has been great. The Rangers, Edmonton, and Carolina all passed us and Florida passed Calgary.

Over our last 17 we are 3-10-4 good for 10 points.

Calgary is 5-11-3 for 13 points
Chicago is 6-9-2 14 points.
Carolina is 7-9-1 for 15 points.
Rangers are 6-8-3 for 15 points
Edmonton is 9-5-3 for 21 points
Florida is 12-4-1 for 25 points.



In the big picture Carolina is now 5 points ahead of us and 1 point behind Calgary
Florida is now 5 points ahead of Calgary with 2 games in hand.
Edmonton has tied us but are ahead because of ROW.
The Rangers are 1 point ahead of us.

Every team has scored more points then us and Calgary has the 2nd lowest total.

The really depressing part is that the 17 games ago was on February 19th (40 days ago) and we have 3 f***ing wins.

 

[MattMartin]

That Ranger game will be the ultimate must lose. I don't care about rivalries, sweeping the season series, we need to LOSE that game. We have Toronto, NJ, and Philadelphia coming up so a real good shot at 3 regulation losses. The Rangers have Tampa, Carolina, and NJ and then us.