Draft Lottery rule: max 1 top2 pick in 6-7 years

[Muikea Bulju]

I've pretty much had it with the current lottery.

Instead of parity, we are getting ridiculous results to only a few teams (whatever team Hall is playing for)

I'm all for restricting the "luck component", for example to put some rules to cut out the ridiculously lucky results Edm+Njd are getting.

Examples:

-Max 1 Top2 pick in 6-7 years
-Max 2 Top5 picks in a row
-Max 4 years in a row in the top10

You wouldn't have to have that many rules if it gets complicated, even the first one alone would be a good start to begin with.

There is a huge difference in picking in the top2 vs 5th-10th, but there isn't that huge of a difference between the 8th and the 16th pick, so it's most important to restrict the top picks.

There have been multiple occasions in which the top2 picks have been almost guaranteed franchise cornerstones / 1a-1b -type of picks, but there has almost never been 3 sure superstars in the top3 of any draft.

1987: Turgeon, Shanahan
1988: Modano, Linden
1990: Nolan, Jagr
1992: Hamrlik, Yashin
1993: Daigle, Pronger
1997: Thornton, Marleau
2001: Kovalchuk, Spezza
2004: Ovechkin, Malkin
2008: Stamkos, Doughty
2009: Tavares, Hedman
2010: Tyler, Taylor
2013: MacKinnon, Barkov
2015: McDavid, Eichel
2016: Laine, Matthews
2019: Hughes, Kakko

This is why I'd say the most important rule would be to limit the top2 picks going to the same teams.

At 3rd-10th overall or something like that there is almost never a sure-fire superstar coming your way.

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[Kranix]

How about no lottery. Worst team is the worst team.

 

[GrandmaCookie]

Some people are such cry babies. The lottery works the same for every team, deal with it already.

I'm sure you would be the first to whine if your team drafted Sam Reinhart and you couldn't draft Mcdavid the year after because of it.

You want a "fair" lottery? Make it so that every team draft 1st once every 31 year. But how boring would that be.

 

[ricky0034]

gotta say it's amusing to see so many people whining about the lottery and split on what direction they want to radically change things in

 

[Muikea Bulju]

How about no lottery. Worst team is the worst team.

But then there would be a humongous race to lose, and that's not pretty to watch at all.

The worst teams should get plenty of picks in the top15, but I don't think they should be allowed to luck themselves into multiple 1st overall selections. That is just not fair to the other bad teams.

 

[hyduK]

It doesn't work imo. Not all number one picks are created equal and some years honestly just aren't that great.

Look at the extreme examples such as the Yakupov draft..even the Hischier draft.

If every draft had a generational talent this would be a lot easier.

 

[StoneHands]

I've pretty much had it with the current lottery.

Instead of parity, we are getting ridiculous results to only a few teams (whatever team Hall is playing for)

I'm all for restricting the "luck component", for example to put some rules to cut out the ridiculously lucky results Edm+Njd are getting.

Examples:

-Max 1 Top2 pick in 6-7 years
-Max 2 Top5 picks in a row
-Max 4 years in a row in the top10

You wouldn't have to have that many rules if it gets complicated, even the first one alone would be a good start to begin with.

View attachment 211931

There is a huge difference in picking in the top2 vs 5th-10th, but there isn't that huge of a difference between the 8th and the 16th pick, so it's most important to restrict the top picks.

There have been multiple occasions in which the top2 picks have been almost guaranteed franchise cornerstones / 1a-1b -type of picks, but there has almost never been 3 sure superstars in the top3 of any draft.

1987: Turgeon, Shanahan
1988: Modano, Linden
1990: Nolan, Jagr
1992: Hamrlik, Yashin
1993: Daigle, Pronger
1997: Thornton, Marleau
2001: Kovalchuk, Spezza
2004: Ovechkin, Malkin
2008: Stamkos, Doughty
2009: Tavares, Hedman
2010: Tyler, Taylor
2013: MacKinnon, Barkov
2015: McDavid, Eichel
2016: Laine, Matthews
2019: Hughes, Kakko

This is why I'd say the most important rule would be to limit the top2 picks going to the same teams.

At 3rd-10th overall or something like that there is almost never a sure-fire superstar coming your way.

If no team can pick in the top 2 more than once every 7 years you do know that means you're going to have playoff teams picking 1st or 2nd on a regular basis, right? By the 7th year and every year following there are going to be 14 teams that aren't eligible for the 1st or 2nd overall picks.

 

[kilowatt]

i just dont think there should be a lottery. if a team like edmonton cant put four first overall picks to good use then let em keep taking em, cause their fans are suffering in other, much worse ways.

but if a team finishes dead last, the only real thing to look forward to is the draft

 

[treple13]

By the 7th year and every year following there are going to be 14 teams that aren't eligible for the 1st or 2nd overall picks.

There's 15 teams that miss the playoffs, so it's impossible for playoff teams to get pick one. Plus the odds that all 14 of those teams are missing the playoffs is basically zero.

 

[Barrie22]

It doesn't work imo. Not all number one picks are created equal and some years honestly just aren't that great.

Look at the extreme examples such as the Yakupov draft..even the Hischier draft.

If every draft had a generational talent this would be a lot easier.

And this is why tanking is not a real thing. Nobody tanks for yakupov but they might for mcdavid.

But the oilers when they got mcdavid were better then the year they picked yakupov.

 

[Soundwave]

I don't see what you "yeah but tanking teams shouldn't be rewarded" group are even crying about anymore.

4 of the bottom 5 teams in the draft moved down because of the lottery, what else do you want? Hasn't that solved the issue already right there? Being last place doesn't gauruntee you jack all anymore, not even a top 3 pick.

Colorado/Ottawa dropped from the no.1 spot to no.4. LA dropped from no.2 to 5.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Not good idea at all, im all for a april madness to determine the non playoff picks. Not that it could ever happen but would be fun

 

[StoneHands]

There's 15 teams that miss the playoffs, so it's impossible for playoff teams to get pick one. Plus the odds that all 14 of those teams are missing the playoffs is basically zero.

If 14 teams have all picked in the top 2 in the past 7 years then none of them are eligible for the 1st or 2nd overall picks which means that either a playoff team or a team that missed the playoffs on the last game or two of the season is getting that pick. Even if only 8-10 of the 14 teams miss the playoffs do we really want bubble playoff teams picking 1 and 2 overall on a regular basis?

If he would have said that any team that wins the lottery is not eligible to win that spot in the lottery the next season, I would have been fine with it but not allowing the same team to pick in the top 2 for 7 years is just dumb.

 

[tucker3434]

I get that they don’t want teams drafting 1 over and over and over again, but I think they overcorrected a few years back. A team barely missing the playoffs winning a top 3 pick should be possible but rare, and more often than not, the teams that need help the most shouldn’t be falling 3 spots.

The draft exists to improve terrible teams, so you know, do that.

 

[Muikea Bulju]

If no team can pick in the top 2 more than once every 7 years you do know that means you're going to have playoff teams picking 1st or 2nd on a regular basis, right? By the 7th year and every year following there are going to be 14 teams that aren't eligible for the 1st or 2nd overall picks.

Of course. But the teams in the Draft Lottery change quite significantly from year to year.

Last year, nyi-car-cgy-stl-dal were in the lottery, and lak-ana-min-njd-phi were out.

If the 7 years is too much, 5 years would solve that problem too.

 

[Muikea Bulju]

It doesn't work imo. Not all number one picks are created equal and some years honestly just aren't that great.

Look at the extreme examples such as the Yakupov draft..even the Hischier draft.

If every draft had a generational talent this would be a lot easier.

Maybe make it even more interesting, and give the lottery winners a chance to choose between the lottery winning pick vs their old pick + an extra pick in the end of the 1st round?

 

[Muikea Bulju]

Not good idea at all, im all for a april madness to determine the non playoff picks. Not that it could ever happen but would be fun

How about an April Madness -tournament in which the teams get as many draft lottery "tickets" as they get points in the tournament?

 

[SI90]

I don’t mind it. If they want to change anything just make a rule about how many spots you can move up like They used To have.

You can’t have no lottery because then you’ll have your lowest few teams at the end of the year playing ECHL goalies and a bunch of call ups and it could effect playoffs.

 

[Nickmo82]

The best way to do it would be what one poster suggested some time ago:

Teams compete for top picks by accumulating as many points as possible once eliminated from the playoffs. So a team eliminated on the last day of the season has no chance, but this years Ottawa (Col) would have had a good month or two to try and win as many games as they could to claim 1OA.

It discourages tanking and rewards playing to win, even after being eliminated from the playoffs.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

How about an April Madness -tournament in which the teams get as many draft lottery "tickets" as they get points in the tournament?

I mean its more of a scheduling issue with stadiums and what not.... would be a fun/interesting idea but never gunna happen

 

[Muikea Bulju]

If 14 teams have all picked in the top 2 in the past 7 years then none of them are eligible for the 1st or 2nd overall picks which means that either a playoff team or a team that missed the playoffs on the last game or two of the season is getting that pick. Even if only 8-10 of the 14 teams miss the playoffs do we really want bubble playoff teams picking 1 and 2 overall on a regular basis?

If he would have said that any team that wins the lottery is not eligible to win that spot in the lottery the next season, I would have been fine with it but not allowing the same team to pick in the top 2 for 7 years is just dumb.

I'd say the bare minimums would have to be:

-Max 1 top2 pick every 3 years
-Max 1 1st overall pick every 6 years

You could also change it to something like

-Max 2 top2 picks in 7 years

(So that if you have already won twice in the least 6 years, you're out of the top2, no matter what, and if you win again, you'd get the 3rd pick)

 

[93LEAFS]

The lottery is fine. It's not like Edmonton even capitalized on all that lotto luck. Plus, not all drafts are equal. I don't think NJ getting the first overall pick in 2017, in one of the weakest years in recent memory should preclude them from getting a 1st in an average draft a couple of years later. Edmonton hit the lottery in 1 good draft, and 1 very rare draft class, but 2011 and 2012 weren't very good classes, especially 2012. Every draft has some elite players, but you have no idea where you will find them (look at 2011). Some drafts have very identifiable players who are very likely to be high-end NHLers and franchise players such as 2008, 2009, 2010, 2013, 2015 and 2016.

No matter how the draft order is done, it's always going to be complaining about. If the Sabres failed there was to McDavid under a no-lotto system people would be outraged, they fielded one of the worst teams this league has seen and traded a competent/hot goalie just because he was winning. When a team in the 10-15 range, people get outraged. When a team wins for the 2nd time in 3 years people get outraged.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

Maybe something like the OP suggests, but with a caveat that a team could let their 10 minutes pass at the draft to avoid the effects of the rule. So it's 2014 and Florida decides to let all ten minutes pass and Buffalo picks instead. Then Florida picks after Buffalo. Florida is still eligible to get first overall the following year.

Still, there is not going to be a system that makes everyone happy. You do a straight reverse order draft, you will certainly have teams doing what Pittsburgh did at the end of 1984 which was to intentionally ice a minor league team to draft Mario. You do a lottery, some perennially bad teams are going to be unlucky.

Or if you don't like the concept of the draft, the NHL can pretty much be like European soccer where each league has something like five teams that get all of the talent all of the time.

 

[Muikea Bulju]

The best way to do it would be what one poster suggested some time ago:

Teams compete for top picks by accumulating as many points as possible once eliminated from the playoffs. So a team eliminated on the last day of the season has no chance, but this years Ottawa (Col) would have had a good month or two to try and win as many games as they could to claim 1OA.

It discourages tanking and rewards playing to win, even after being eliminated from the playoffs.

But I think you should still have some randomness to it to eliminate teams trying to tank first and win later

So I'd change that to this:

-Give non-playff teams as many tickets to the draft lottery as they get points after elimination

So for example Ottawa would get a better chance to win at the Lottery by winning more games in the end, but they wouldn't be guaranteed to have the 1st overall pick even after tanking in the beginning.

 

[Foppberg]

The lottery was fine before they rehauled it, thanks Edmonton.