Speculation: Dougie Hamilton Negotiations (Pt. 2)

[Roboturner913]

If we're signing guys like Sam Miletic and the remnants of Derek Stephan, I'm thinking there's little chance we're in on Eichel or Tarasenko

So if I have McDonalds for lunch, there's little chance I'll have something nicer than McDonald's for supper. Right?

I mean no offense to anybody, truly I don't, but I think some of you are letting your emotions run away with you and grasping at narratives that don't really exist.

 

[bleedgreen]

TDA's scoring is a LOT closer to Dougie's than you seem to think. Defense, sure Dougie is better, but not by much. Late in a game protecting a lead, I'm not playing either of them. And it's an 8 million dollar difference.

As for where the money has gone, the offseason is only just beginning. There's enough money there for an Eichel or a Tarensenko.

Again, the guy is not Victor Hedman. Who gets paid a million dollars less than Dougie now does.

I struggle with the last sentence because we likely could’ve had him for less.

 

[Chrispy]

TDA's scoring is a LOT closer to Dougie's than you seem to think. Defense, sure Dougie is better, but not by much. Late in a game protecting a lead, I'm not playing either of them. And it's an 8 million dollar difference.

As for where the money has gone, the offseason is only just beginning. There's enough money there for an Eichel or a Tarensenko.

Again, the guy is not Victor Hedman. Who gets paid a million dollars less than Dougie now does.

Again my issue is not passing on signing a 9M deal. It’s saying Hamilton is only worth $5.75M. I’m not saying he needs to be paid more than Hedman, but I do think he’s better than Krug, or Faulk, or Fowler, and the last reported offer was below all 3 of those. There is a reported >$3M gap between Carolinas final offer and the Jersey deal. All I’m saying is the valuation should be closer. I don’t think saying Hamilton is worth $7M is a ridiculous take.

On to the TDA flier: TDA has a PPG inflated by his outlier 20-21. The rest of his career is under 0.35 PPG. Will he return to his 20-21 level? He hasn’t since he entered the bubble. It’s a small sample size but that’s his own fault. Is he worth a cheap flier? Possibly, but even then PPG only helps if TDA actually stays on the ice. That’s way up in the air.

 

[Chrispy]

Maybe not. But so what?

The goal is to have a better overall lineup, not to replace every given individual player you lose to free agency with a better player.

Let's say DeAngelo is 75% of the player Hamilton is, which seems a fair assessment to me, statistically speaking. But if Ethan Bear is only 25% better than Jake Bean, then you've broken even on the defense. And Cole is likely at least a small upgrade over Hakanpaa.

If Deangelo can keep his shit together (and granted, that's kind of a big if) this year's defense looks better than last year's to me.

And who is the PP QB if Deangelo screws up again, or breaks a bone or pulls a hamstring? Bear? Pesce?? That’s another major flaw in this plan that has not been corrected with the savings from Hamilton.

 

[Roboturner913]

I don't think there is one single subjective standard to player valuations. It all depends on what the team is looking for. Hamilton may be only worth $5.75 to the Canes (a team that is good at churning out solid defensemen) because they believe they can replace his production with somebody who makes the same money or less. But he may be worth $9 million to the Devils because they're desperate for good defensemen and don't have the same means of developing talent.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

So if I have McDonalds for lunch, there's little chance I'll have something nicer than McDonald's for supper. Right?

I mean no offense to anybody, truly I don't, but I think some of you are letting your emotions run away with you and grasping at narratives that don't really exist.

To use your analogy, it's more like someone has decided Olive Garden is too expensive to eat at, so the odds they're going to suddenly decide to splurge on a 5-star Italian restaurant is... unlikely, to say the least.

 

[Roboturner913]

And who is the PP QB if Deangelo screws up again, or breaks a bone or pulls a hamstring? Bear? Pesce?? That’s another major flaw in this plan that has not been corrected with the savings from Hamilton.

I did say it was a big if. But you could ask that same question about almost any team in the league. Not a lot of squads have two PP QBs sitting around.

 

[Roboturner913]

To use your analogy, it's more like someone has decided Olive Garden is too expensive to eat at, so the odds they're going to suddenly decide to splurge on a 5-star Italian restaurant is... unlikely, to say the least.

That's actually missing the point of the analogy entirely. You're making an assumption about cheapness, I was only talking in terms of timeframe.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

That's actually missing the point of the analogy entirely. You're making an assumption about cheapness, I was only talking in terms of timeframe.

In that case, you missed the point of my initial post. Certainly, there's plenty of time to possibly go after big name players. But the small signings we're making right now, in combination with the interview Waddell gave recently about "having more cap space than expected at this point", makes me believe the odds we're actually in any conversations about those players seem very slim.

 

[Roboturner913]

But if they have more cap space than expected, it implies that they were expecting to spend at or close to the cap (with the Svechnikov extension pending), and are likely still looking to spend to that number. I don't know a manager in any business I've ever dealt with that willingly gives up operating budget.

Also, if they were trying to trade for Eichel or Tarasenko, those kinds of negotiations take time.

 

[Lempo]

What I would like to see is a model of optimized spending on the roster with the salary cap of $81.5M.

How do you optimally assing that amount of moolah into 1C, top-6 forward, 1st pairing D-man, 4 top-4 D-men, starter, backup and the tweeners? And how do you tweak the base model to accommodate and factor in someone being a PP/PK specialist.

Then let's find out what we would offer Dougie.

(obviously the cap should be going up at some point, but against expectations it didn't happen with the new TV deal)

 

[Borsig]

What I would like to see is a model of optimized spending on the roster with the salary cap of $81.5M.

How do you optimally assing that amount of moolah into 1C, top-6 forward, 1st pairing D-man, 4 top-4 D-men, starter, backup and the tweeners? And how do you tweak the base model to accommodate and factor in someone being a PP/PK specialist.

Then let's find out what we would offer Dougie.

(obviously the cap should be going up at some point, but against expectations it didn't happen with the new TV deal)

it ain't 9 mil AAV I can tell you that.

Perspective - Hamiltion is making 500K less that Ovie and Point.

L O L

 

[hblueridgegal]

How “in” are they really on these guys or trades if they strikeout every time? Per FS, it’s been a problem for a while. At some point, don’t you adjust your approach?

If agents, players and other GMs know their tactics, might they not be putting the Canes at the bottom of the list if other options are available? Plus, the rep that they won’t even pay their performers now. What’s attractive about that?

 

[Lempo]

How “in” are they really on these guys or trades if they strikeout every time? Per FS, it’s been a problem for a while. At some point, don’t you adjust your approach?

If agents, players and other GMs know their tactics, might they not be putting the Canes at the bottom of the list if other options are available? Plus, the rep that they won’t even pay their performers now. What’s attractive about that?

Haven't we mostly done good low-end hockey trades that haven't been a highway robbery to either way? GMs at least shouldn't have problems, as seen on the 2021 Entry Draft.

One would rather think that after the Ned trade one or two GMs put DW on their speed dial.

 

[tarheelhockey]

How “in” are they really on these guys or trades if they strikeout every time? Per FS, it’s been a problem for a while. At some point, don’t you adjust your approach?

If agents, players and other GMs know their tactics, might they not be putting the Canes at the bottom of the list if other options are available? Plus, the rep that they won’t even pay their performers now. What’s attractive about that?

Well they did land Dougie Hamilton…

 

[hblueridgegal]

Haven't we mostly done good low-end hockey trades that haven't been a highway robbery to either way? GMs at least shouldn't have problems, as seen on the 2021 Entry Draft.

One would rather think that after the Ned trade one or two GMs put DW on their speed dial.

I just feel like a lot of what is being spun is posturing such that believability is lost. While the Canes may not always be top of mind, I don't tend to believe that every media person and others are out to get the Canes by spreading falsehoods. They're telling what they're hearing.

How about being true to what they are? Plenty of organizations have a sweet spot of attracting Tier 2 or Tier 3 targets instead of aiming for and wasting energy on unattainable Tier 1s. What's also concerning is that any Tier 1 obtained, either by development or acquisition, may have a short relationship.

 

[cptjeff]

I struggle with the last sentence because we likely could’ve had him for less.

Based on what, exactly? Your hopes and dreams? It's pretty damn clear that Dougie was always planning on going to the highest bidder.

 

[dogbazinho]

To me the money we could have arrived at subtracting some of these "depth" adds like Stepan. The trickier part is the NTC/NMC which I would want no part of.

 

[bleedgreen]

Based on what, exactly? Your hopes and dreams? It's pretty damn clear that Dougie was always planning on going to the highest bidder.

Based on what exactly? Your hopes and dreams? If we never gave a real offer we have no idea what he was planning. I wish it was clear he was all about the cash....which is perfectly fine but there’s nothing pretty damn clear here aside from we weren’t in the bidding. Which would’ve been fine if we just said that from the outset.

“We thank Dougie for his services but this off season we will be going in a different direction.”

 

[Lempo]

"We thank Dougie for his services but this off season we will be going in a different direction.”

And have everyone and their cat tweet: "The cheap direction."

 

[MinJaBen]

And have everyone and their cat tweet: "The cheap direction."

Yeah, but that seems to have happened anyway.

 

[Lempo]

Yeah, but that seems to have happened anyway.

But Canes managed to blunt the killer one-liner potential when they now first have to work at lenght to show DW a liar, and "you're just being cheap!" really becomes more of an afterthought of sorts.

The trick is to make them have to use more than 140 characters.

 

[Roboturner913]

Yeah, but that seems to have happened anyway.

they were going to say that no matter what. It was the narrative before Dundon even officially bought the team, and it will continue to be the narrative basically no matter what he does, save winning 2-3 Cups in a 10 year period.

 

[Lempo]

they were going to say that no matter what. It was the narrative before Dundon even officially bought the team, and it will continue to be the narrative basically no matter what he does, save winning 2-3 Cups in a 10 year period.

Smart teams go 20M above the cap just to avoid such accusations.

 

[Roboturner913]

Dundon so cheap he only spend to the cap