Dougie Hamilton - II

[Fenian24]

I will start by saying I like Hamilton and think he should be resigned, that said, has anyone though that maybe the Bruins aren't thrilled with him, know what Chiarelli thinks of him and how badly Chiarelli has over paid mediocre talent (Smith, Kelly) and they are looking at the 4 first round picks that may come there way?

I don't think Edmonton will turn it around in a year or two and the Bruins could be looking at a minimum of two lottery picks from the 4 Edmonton would owe, if they pay Hamilton in that compensation range. Boston may be letting Edmonton handle the negotiation and will just match if they like the deal or take the picks if Edmonton over pays.

There is always the possibility Chiarelli doesn't understand that the compensation is based on a 5 year term a not a 7 and he would price himself into a different compensation category (before anybody says an NHL GM would know better, remember Calgary offer sheeted Ryan O'Reilly and didn't know he would have to clear waivers before he could play for them)

 

[Trap Jesus]

Um... no. I don't think anyone would dispute that Bergeron makes Hamilton a better player, but that's because Bergeron makes everyone he plays with a better player; he's a possession god.

But you're being extremely misleading in how you're deploying these stats, because while Bergeron this year may have had better possession numbers w/o Hamilton that Hamilton had w/o Bergeron. Hamilton made nearly everyone else on the team a better player.

Hamilton w/o Chara: CF% 52.2
Chara w/o Hamilton: CF% 49.3

Hamilton w/o Eriksson: CF% 54.6
Eriksson w/o Hamilton: CF% 51.3

Hamilton w/o Seidenberg: CF% 55.6
Seidenberg w/o Hamilton: CF% 47

If you want to make the case that Hamilton isn't worth the money, that fine, I guess. But you really can't use "advanced stats" to do it because they don't give you any leg to stand on.

First off, I've never had an issue with Hamilton from an advanced stat perspective. His Corsi/Fenwick numbers are quite good relative to the other D-men, and I demonstrated earlier in this thread that there's a correlation to players' Corsi numbers improving when playing with him. However, I think people start to get out of hand when comparing him to others around the league, because there is no doubt that playing with Bergeron has a big-time effect on those numbers. I wish there was a way to measure Hamilton's impact on players' advanced stats with Bergeron completely out of the picture. Because there's still a lot of overlap with your Hamilton "apart from" numbers that overlap on his time on ice with Bergeron.

Hamilton apart from every forward not on the Bergeron line is ~55 CF% (54.6 with Eriksson at a low to 57.2 (close to outlier territory) without Campbell at a high), which is right around his Corsi average for the season. Nothing shocking there. The 4th line numbers are obviously bad for Hamilton as it's the 4th line.

Seidenberg played more with Bartkowski and McQuaid individually than he did with Hamilton, and we're surprised that his Corsi rocketed up? Our defensive group is a mess right now.

Chara and Hamilton as a pair had fantastic advanced-stat numbers together (57.1%), and that encompassed nearly 2/3 of his 5-on-5 playing time. Chara's other "main" partners? Trotman (for ~13% of his playing time (Chara had a 54.4 CF% when on ice with him), and McQuaid for ~9% of Chara's playing time(they had a 44.4 CF% together)); he did not play even 60 minutes with any of Seidenberg, Bartkowski or Krug.

And on the other side of things, Hamilton recorded a 52.2 CF% without Chara. While not beneficial for their goal numbers, Chara-Hamilton is certainly beneficial for advanced stats.

I can't help but laugh at all this though. Someone just posted fused PP + PK + ES Corsi numbers when Hamilton got the most PP time and least PK time of the players listed, and no one said a thing. Instead, I'm the one who's posting misleading numbers.

 

[Trap Jesus]

lol so let me get this straight...Bergeron is responsible for Hamilton's possession numbers now?

Then why the hell was Seidenberg so bad? If Bergeron is really carrying the D then surely he should have inflated Seids' numbers as well, right?

Seidenberg played 403:37 with Bergeron, and was 55.9 CF% with him. Pastrnak is the only other non-Bergeron line forward that he had over 49 CF% with at 50.8 CF% (of the ones that played more than 100 minutes on the ice with him). And that isn't to mention that they had an absurdly low 35.5% offensive zone start % together (Seids is at 49.3% o-zone starts without Bergeron).

That doesn't count as inflating numbers?

 

[RussellmaniaKW]

Seidenberg played 403:37 with Bergeron, and was 55.9 CF% with him. Pastrnak is the only other non-Bergeron line forward that he had over 49 CF% with at 50.8 CF% (of the ones that played more than 100 minutes on the ice with him). And that isn't to mention that they had an absurdly low 35.5% offensive zone start % together (Seids is at 49.3% o-zone starts without Bergeron).

That doesn't count as inflating numbers?

but Dougie's overall corsi numbers are good, not just when he's on the ice with Bergeron, right?

I mean I think what you just said kind of proves my point. Seids' CF% was waaaay better when he was with Bergy. His overall CF% sucked.

If Dougie was getting carried by Bergy in the same way then you'd expect him to be well over 50% with Bergy but then his overall number would be lower. But Dougie's overall (in all situations) CF% is still among the best on the team, much better than Seids. Unless Dougie was playing the vast majority of his minutes with Bergy then I don't see how anyone can claim that Bergy was inflating his CF%.

I honestly have no idea how to see how many minutes two guys played together and see how that effects their numbers...care to enlighten me?

 

[Harry Lime]

First off, I've never had an issue with Hamilton from an advanced stat perspective. His Corsi/Fenwick numbers are quite good relative to the other D-men, and I demonstrated earlier in this thread that there's a correlation to players' Corsi numbers improving when playing with him. However, I think people start to get out of hand when comparing him to others around the league, because there is no doubt that playing with Bergeron has a big-time effect on those numbers.

Wait, so now you want to punish him because his coach trusts him to play significant minutes against difficult opposition with his best defensive forward? I'm honestly not sure what you're trying to prove here. And besides a lot of really good defensemen around the league play big minutes with top defensive forwards. Keith plays big minutes with Toews and Hossa, Doughty plays a lot with Kopitar, etc.

 

[JOKER 192]

we can argue about advanced stats 'til next year but I think it's clear to most that by the eye test,Hamilton is good at Offence and average at best at Defence. Kind of like Karlsson but different. Bottom line is he'll likely get paid more than he's worth next season, let's hope he's worth it at some point. It will depend on what he gets but he will likely , eventually, be worth the deal he gets. Let's hope it's with the Bruins.

 

[RussellmaniaKW]

we can argue about advanced stats 'til next year but I think it's clear to most that by the eye test,Hamilton is good at Offence and average at best at Defence. Kind of like Karlsson but different. Bottom line is he'll likely get paid more than he's worth next season, let's hope he's worth it at some point. It will depend on what he gets but he will likely , eventually, be worth the deal he gets. Let's hope it's with the Bruins.

Translation:
"We can rely on things like "facts" and "empirical evidence" to determine a player's worth, but I'd rather just ignore that and state a completely unprovable statement as fact in order to support my own baseless opinion."

 

[Trap Jesus]

but Dougie's overall corsi numbers are good, not just when he's on the ice with Bergeron, right?

I mean I think what you just said kind of proves my point. Seids' CF% was waaaay better when he was with Bergy. His overall CF% sucked.

If Dougie was getting carried by Bergy in the same way then you'd expect him to be well over 50% with Bergy but then his overall number would be lower. But Dougie's overall (in all situations) CF% is still among the best on the team, much better than Seids. Unless Dougie was playing the vast majority of his minutes with Bergy then I don't see how anyone can claim that Bergy was inflating his CF%.

I honestly have no idea how to see how many minutes two guys played together and see how that effects their numbers...care to enlighten me?

Yes, they're still good numbers, just not near what they are with Bergeron. 50.1 CF% is by no means a bad number. I'm not always trying to argue Hamilton is the worst player of all time... Surely you can see a huge difference from 63.8 CF% with Bergeron vs. 50.1 CF% without him (and his 55 CF% total), right?

Me saying his numbers are being inflated by playing with Bergeron doesn't reflect negatively on Dougie. It's like if Kessel scored 40 goals playing with Bozak and goes to Pittsburgh next year and pots 60 with Crosby, it would be reasonable to assume that Crosby helped "inflate" his goal totals. Wouldn't mean Kessel wasn't a great goal scorer before.

My issue starts when people start comparing him to other players like Trouba. Playing with Bergeron can elevate people's stats through the roof if they play a significant amount of time with him. You're a Bruins fan. I don't need to tell you why Bergeron is so good at possession stats.

Wait, so now you want to punish him because his coach trusts him to play significant minutes against difficult opposition with his best defensive forward? I'm honestly not sure what you're trying to prove here. And besides a lot of really good defensemen around the league play big minutes with top defensive forwards. Keith plays big minutes with Toews and Hossa, Doughty plays a lot with Kopitar, etc.

I'm not trying to punish him for that at all; I'm just giving an explanation for how his numbers can be elevated from playing with Bergeron. Bergeron dominates possession no matter who he's up against.

 

[JOKER 192]

Translation:
"We can rely on things like "facts" and "empirical evidence" to determine a player's worth, but I'd rather just ignore that and state a completely unprovable statement as fact in order to support my own baseless opinion."

well you can see it like that or you can realize it's a team sport and who you play with will influence your stats. Probably way more than anything you do will.

 

[Jean_Jacket41]

Will Hamilton reach RFA on July 1st or will Sweeney sign him before?

8y. Only the Bruins can offer him that. Hope he takes it and run.

 

[ThorntonFightClub*]

we can argue about advanced stats 'til next year but I think it's clear to most that by the eye test,Hamilton is good at Offence and average at best at Defence. Kind of like Karlsson but different. Bottom line is he'll likely get paid more than he's worth next season, let's hope he's worth it at some point. It will depend on what he gets but he will likely , eventually, be worth the deal he gets. Let's hope it's with the Bruins.

aka "the numbers tell a different story than I want to accept so I'm going to claim the eye test as superior"

Here's a hint. Eyes lie, numbers dont

 

[WhalerTurnedBruin55]

Dougie is the best defenseman we've drafted in over a decade, 21 and playing top pair minutes.

Take the lead of other successful defenseman and contracts and hash out something reasonable.

As of now, the only players I'd move Dougie for are ultimately not available. Lock up your youth; Chiarelli's only smart contract, he traded away, so don't lose this opportunity to secure the defensive future of this team.

 

[GloveSave1]

Will Hamilton reach RFA on July 1st or will Sweeney sign him before?

8y. Only the Bruins can offer him that. Hope he takes it and run.

Well, I hope the Bruins either sign him to that 8 year term, or plan to part ways.

It's gonna hurt us pretty bad short term one way or another signing him, the Bruins should take the long term discount. The bridge contract makes no sense to me...Dougie will always put up offensive numbers, and therefore, will always make bank.

Even if Dougie doesn't figure it out defensively, it's gonna take many years for people to accept that.

But no, I bet we won't sign him before that date.

 

[JOKER 192]

aka "the numbers tell a different story than I want to accept so I'm going to claim the eye test as superior"

Here's a hint. Eyes lie, numbers dont

You can make stats say almost anything you want them to.

Numbers don't lie,really?
Anyone who has played with Crosby is ******** themselves laughing right now.

Or you can ask Komeserik WTF happened when he wasn't playing with Markov anymore

Oh, I know , I know it was the beating Looch gave him that knocked the defence out of him right?

Smith benefits from playing with Brad and Bergy is a common belief around here. Lucic needs the support of top players to achieve his stats is another one that get thrown around here. So which is it? Does a player benefit from his teammates?

 

[Jean_Jacket41]

Well, I hope the Bruins either sign him to that 8 year term, or plan to part ways.

It's gonna hurt us pretty bad short term one way or another signing him, the Bruins should take the long term discount. The bridge contract makes no sense to me...Dougie will always put up offensive numbers, and therefore, will always make bank.

Even if Dougie doesn't figure it out defensively, it's gonna take many years for people to accept that.

But no, I bet we won't sign him before that date.

He's only 21y.
He's 6ft5.
He's fast.
He's already one of the team top scorers.
He has Julien to teach him D and Chara for mentor.

Like it will be cheaper in a couple years...

8y.

 

[GloveSave1]

He's only 21y.
He's 6ft5.
He's fast.
He's already one of the team top scorers.
He has Julien to teach him D and Chara for mentor.

Like it will be cheaper in a couple years...

8y.

I agree that at the end of the day the Bruins should sign him to an 8 year deal. He will always be an asset. I'm not sure he will ever be a plus defender, but I think the Bruins are married to him, and are in a position to bet on him.

IMO, the Bruins will have to bring in and pay a top defensive defenseman, but at the end of the day I guess you find the money for both. As I've said, I'd be shocked if Dougie can ever transform into a Chara-like shut down guy. I'M NOT SAYING AS GOOD AS CHARA...just performing that service.

 

[wintersej]

aka "the numbers tell a different story than I want to accept so I'm going to claim the eye test as superior"

Here's a hint. Eyes lie, numbers dont

Numbers don't lie...but everyone can lie with statistics by withholding some numbers and putting others in big bold caps.

For those who asked, here is Hamilton's Corsi breakdown with and without every player on the Bruins along with how much he played with player X: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1666&withagainst=true&season=2014-15&sit=5v5

He played 30% of the time with Bergeron and those two KILLED IT together, despite the fact they were being given a very low amount of offensive zone starts. Hamilton clearly had better stats when he played with Bergeron on the ice. Its also clear, that when Bergeron isn't on the ice the Bruins were A BAD TEAM LAST YEAR, and yet, Hamilton still had his Corsi above 50% w/o Bergeron.

This is one of my favorite Dougie charts: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...00&teamid=3&type=corsi&sort=TMPCT&sortdir=ASC

Only Bergeron increased his teammates Corsi more than Hamilton on the Bruins. When players played with Hamilton, their Corsi was 55%. Without Hamilton they are at 50%. When neither Bergeron or Hamilton were on the ice? Well. Hello Edmonton Oilers. And thats with Hamilton getting some of the hardest zone starts on the team (with Bergeron and Chara). He is an excellent driver of possession. Easy 1st pairing on a good team. At 21.

Where his season went down hill this year was how often the shots he gave up ended up in the net. For some reason, Hamilton (.906), Marchand (.902) and Bergeron (.895) just had some real bad luck with save % against while they were on the ice. Now, before the Dougie bashers use that save % as a demerit of Dougie...last year Dougie was 3rd in the NHL at .952...so it can't be luck one year and skill a different year.

Is Dougie ready to be your all situations #1? No. He needs some muscle and he makes mistakes in his own end at a higher rate than you would want. He is an average 2nd pairing D at shot suppression and a high end top pairing guy at shot generation. He is 21. If his progression goes poorly, he is at worst case Brent Burns or Yandle. I mean, he is those guys right now. Best case he is a multiple Norris winning Hall of Famer. No BS. What is most likely? Top 5 D in the NHL in his prime. You can win a Cup with one of those, and getting one of those for 6 to 7 a year is awesome, even if he is overpaid for 2 of 8 years. If he plateaus out and doesn't get any better? Well, paying 6 to 7 for a 2nd pairing offensive minded D-man isn't going to kill you either.

 

[wintersej]

I agree that at the end of the day the Bruins should sign him to an 8 year deal. He will always be an asset. I'm not sure he will ever be a plus defender, but I think the Bruins are married to him, and are in a position to bet on him.

IMO, the Bruins will have to bring in and pay a top defensive defenseman, but at the end of the day I guess you find the money for both. As I've said, I'd be shocked if Dougie can ever transform into a Chara-like shut down guy. I'M NOT SAYING AS GOOD AS CHARA...just performing that service.

Dougie needs his Strahlman, Seabrook, Muzzin what have you. Sure. (As Keith scores). If, like Keith, Hamilton can just get good enough in his own zone that you can feed him heavy 5 on 5 mins with low end first pairing shot suppression and high end shot generation and 2nd pairing PK mins he will be a STAR. I think he gets there and gets there soon.

 

[Dellstrom]

I agree that at the end of the day the Bruins should sign him to an 8 year deal. He will always be an asset. I'm not sure he will ever be a plus defender, but I think the Bruins are married to him, and are in a position to bet on him.

IMO, the Bruins will have to bring in and pay a top defensive defenseman, but at the end of the day I guess you find the money for both. As I've said, I'd be shocked if Dougie can ever transform into a Chara-like shut down guy. I'M NOT SAYING AS GOOD AS CHARA...just performing that service.

Patrice ****ing Bergeron was barely a plus player this year... Hamilton was our #1 for a month and had to play with peg-leg Chara for the entire year, yet he was still only a -3 and put up as many/more points than 2/3rds of our forwards. He definitely has work to do defensively, he's 21, and no, he won't be a Chara kind of shut down guy. But neither is Keith. He's doing alright.

This season sucked. Give us one or two years to become the competitive possession team we were for the past 3 years again and I bet Hamilton will be an absolute God. If we get him for 6-7m for 8 years, it'll be a bargain by year 3 at the latest.

 

[Man Rocket]

That was fantastic and hilarious. Very much agreed. Love the shots at Haggs. I'm hoping Don isn't considering that.

haha that was great. I cant ****ing stand Haggs

 

[finchster]

Long term 8 years 5-6 million and watch the deal become a steal in a few years.

 

[Man Rocket]

Long term 8 years 5-6 million and watch the deal become a steal in a few years.

6m at the very lowest if he's getting 7-8 years, he isn't going to handcuff himself like that. I can see something like 8 years 7m per as a more realistic cost.

 

[thadd]

OK I read everything from May 20thish till post #625 to try to figure out what you Bruins fans make of this situation.... and your opinions are so varied that I'm still not sure what to make of this situation.

There isn't any trade that I can see Edmonton making that would work for Boston given their needs.
People talk about offer sheets, but they very rarely happen. I was shocked when Philly tried to pick up Weber.

Also, call me crazy... but even if Edmonton did offer him 7.4M per season (4 1st rounders), I'm pretty sure Boston would match because I think they'd feel forced to match.

Chara wasn't quite his superstar self last season and he's at that age where you can't expect him to have many more super star seasons. Without a legit #1 d-man, I don't know how Boston is going to squeak into the playoffs, let alone go on a cup run.

So I'm gonna say that there's a 10% chance that PC is gonna piss the Bruins off really bad by throwing a massive offer sheet at Hamilton and Boston will match that offer as late as possible just to waste PC's time as a middle finger back at him.

 

[Salem13]

6m at the very lowest if he's getting 7-8 years, he isn't going to handcuff himself like that. I can see something like 8 years 7m per as a more realistic cost.

Duncan Kieth, through 2023 at 5.5, dreams big dream.

Come on Doug!

 

[OutspokenMinority*]

if Hedman is being used as any sort of comparable, Dougie should come in at about 75% of Hedman's contract, imo.

Hedman's got the grits. Dougie don't. NHL is a grit league. not at the expense of skill, but in addition to the skill, grit is the NHL's differentiator.

Dougie might never have been in a fight off-ice in his life. he might never have even been in a heated argument. You need a well-managed dark space inside to compete at that level in the playoffs and Dougie does not have that. i fear he may become a less off-putting Dennis Wideman or Mike Green. ie. not ever going to be a true difference maker.