does anyone else get the feeling this is going to be the year of the underdogs?

[c9777666]

Until I see Boston officially eliminated, it’s their Cup to lose

 

[Taluss]

Isles stars final would be fun

 

[Bedards Dad]

I'm cheering for Toronto in the east. Lived here in the GTA all my life, but that's a big bias. If Toronto makes it into the next round, they have an amazing chance.

The best chance they've had since Gilmour, but they still need to get past Boston.

Its not an opinion piece. Doesnt mean it's right, but it's based off simulations and ELO

 

[AvsFan29]

Its not an opinion piece. Doesnt mean it's right, but it's based off simulations and ELO

I haven't seen any other analysts that have Toronto with that advantage

 

[Bedards Dad]

I haven't seen any other analysts that have Toronto with that advantage

I havent seen any other in general. Can you share some links that arent opinion?

 

[AvsFan29]

I havent seen any other in general. Can you share some links that arent opinion?

If you look at the stats through the first round, Toronto isn't the favourite. They are in the mix.

 

[Bedards Dad]

If you look at the stats through the first round, Toronto isn't the favourite. They are in the mix.

What stats? Not disputing, just haven't seen any.

 

[AvsFan29]

What stats? Not disputing, just haven't seen any.

pretty basic, but it's informative

 

[LeafGrief]

We CAN'T let the leafs win the cup. Riots around the world if that happens.

You just triggered my persecution complex

 

[ECanuck]

Who are the teams that are considered underdogs? Without having that list, maybe?

Of the teams left I see Washington, Boston, Nashville and Vegas as favorites based on previous playoffs. For me the rest are anywhere from mid pack to underdogs.

Here is what the Athletic has for current probabilities:

How is Toronto at 19% for cup and we haven't won our series like other teams?

 

[Bedards Dad]

View attachment 218349 pretty basic, but it's informative

Where is the prediction?

 

[Bedards Dad]

How is Toronto at 19% for cup and we haven't won our series like other teams?

No idea, I didnt run the 50,000 simulations

 

[AvsFan29]

Where is the prediction?

Kinda hard to make a prediction when rounds are still being played, but here's one

 

[AvsFan29]

No idea, I didnt run the 50,000 simulations

Lol the athletic wants subscriptions I guess

 

[SavedByRoy]

View attachment 218349 pretty basic, but it's informative

So strange that two separate analytics based studies have the Jets dead last in one and 5th of 16 in the other. Interesting. Not discounting either one at all.

 

[Eddy Punch Clock]

Avs-Golden Knights
Blues-Stars

Hurricanes-Islanders
Blue Jackets-Leafs

We could have an old Norris division rivalry for the cup.

 

[AvsFan29]

So strange that two separate analytics based studies have the Jets dead last in one and 5th of 16 in the other. Interesting. Not discounting either one at all.

The one I showed is heavily based on stats, and not outcomes.

I dunno where the athletic got 19% for the leafs

 

[holy]

Leafs win and parity becomes parody.

 

[miscs75]

Give me NYI vs TOR in the conference finals and an Isles win.

 

[Jmo89]

I don't view the Islanders as an underdog. And the Blue Jackets aren't an average 8th seed. They finished two points behind Toronto

The Islanders are only an underdog because of what was expected of them prior to the season. Frankly I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see them in the SCF. They play a very playoff style of hockey, Lehner has been solid the entire year, and according to Isles fans Trotz is doing a great job (I asked them. )

I agree though, based on their results from this season they aren't really overperforming as they've been solid all year.

 

[NeverBeNormal]

Oh man if Dutchy made the Finals somehow and loses to the Avs, I would be so eternally grateful to the Hockey Gods.

 

[Jmo89]

I think Vegas is the favorite. They made it close last year and added alot of talent since.

 

[doublechili]

No idea, but they gave this. Everyone is welcome to come up with something better that isnt based on opinion.


NHL playoffs probabilities – April 20

That chart of fancy numbers is courtesy of Dom Luszczhszyn. Dom's fancy numbers previously said that the Penguins had a 70.3% chance of beating the Islanders in the first round. The fact that he had that down to the .3% means his numbers are highly accurate and indisputable.